• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of Failure time

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Lifetime Prediction of Existing Highway Bridges Using System Reliability Approach (실제 교량의 시스템 신뢰성해석에 기초한 수명예측)

  • Yang, Seung Ie
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.365-373
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, the system reliability concept was presented to predict the lifespan of bridges. Lifetime distribution functions (survivor functions) were used to model real bridges to predict their remaining life. Using the system reliability concept and lifetime distribution functions (survivor functions), a program called LIFETIME was developed. The survivor functions give the reliability of component at time t. The program was applied to an existing Colorado state highway bridge to predict the failure probability of the time-dependent system. The bridge was modeled as a system, with failure probability computed using time-dependent deteriorating models.

Service Life Prediction for Building Materials and Components with Stochastic Deterioration (추계적 열화모형에 의한 건설자재의 사용수명 예측)

  • Kwon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2007
  • The performance of a building material degrades as time goes by and the failure of the material is often defined as the point at which the performance of the material reaches a pre-specified degraded level. Based on a stochastic deterioration model, a performance based service life prediction method for building materials and components is developed. As a stochastic degradation model, a gamma process is considered and lifetime distribution and service life of a material are predicted using the degradation model. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the use of the proposed service life prediction method.

A study on different failure criteria to predict damage in glass/polyester composite beams under low velocity impact

  • Aghaei, Manizheh;Forouzan, Mohammad R.;Nikforouz, Mehdi;Shahabi, Elham
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.1291-1303
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    • 2015
  • Damage caused by low velocity impact is so dangerous in composites because although in most cases it is not visible to the eye, it can greatly reduce the strength of the composite material. In this paper, damage development in U-section glass/polyester pultruded beams subjected to low velocity impact was considered. Different failure criteria such as Maximum stress, Maximum strain, Hou, Hashin and the combination of Maximum strain criteria for fiber failure and Hou criteria for matrix failure were programmed and implemented in ABAQUS software via a user subroutine VUMAT. A suitable degradation model was also considered for reducing material constants due to damage. Experimental tests, which performed to validate numerical results, showed that Hashin and Hou failure criteria have better accuracy in predicting force-time history than the other three criteria. However, maximum stress and Hashin failure criteria had the best prediction for damage area, in comparison with the other three criteria. Finally in order to compare numerical model with the experimental results in terms of extent of damage, bending test was performed after impact and the behavior of the beam was considered.

A Study on the Prediction of Failure Rate of Airforce OO Guided Missile Based on Field Failure Data (야전운용제원에 기반한 공군 OO유도탄 고장률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Cheonkyu;Ma, Jungmok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.428-434
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    • 2020
  • The one-shot weapon system is destroyed after only one mission. So, the system requires high reliability. Guided missiles are one-shot weapon systems that have to be analyzed by storage reliability since they spend most of their life in storage. The analysis results depend on the model and the ratio of correct censored data. This study was conducted to propose a method to more accurately predict the future failure rate of Air force guided missiles. In the proposed method, the failure rate is predicted by both MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) and MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) models and the model with a smaller error from the real failure rate is selected. Next, with the selected model, the ratio of correct censored data is selected to minimize the error between the predicted failure rate and the real failure rate. Based on real field data, the comparative result is determined and the result shows that the proposed sampling rate can predict the future failure rate more accurately.

Failure Rate Characteristics Analysis under Ground Mobile and Ground Fixed Environments (지상 기동 및 고정 환경하 고장률 특성 분석)

  • Yun, Hui-Sung;Jeong, Da-Un;Yoon, Jong-Sung;Lee, Seung-Hun
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.293-303
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    • 2011
  • Reliability Prediction using MIL-HDBK-217F has some restrictions due to its one modeling basis. One of the restrictions is caused by selecting one operating environment of a system, which is chosen regardless of its detailed conditions, e.g., external impact and vibration. Especially, an equipment, which is installed on a mobile vehicle though its movement is quasi-static, is controversial to designate its environment as ground mobile($G_M$), rather than ground fixed($G_F$). In this paper, failure rates were compared, which are computed using several moving time rates to total operating time. RiAC-HDBK-217Plus was used as the basic calculation model. In addition, $G_F$ conditioned failure rate was evaluated by comparing with that under $G_M$ environment but fixed state.

The Designs for Prediction of Future Reliability Using the Stochastic Reliabilit

  • Oh, Chung-Hwan;Kim, Bok-Mahn
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 1993
  • The newly proposed model of the future reliability results in earlier fault-fixes having a greater effect than the fault which make the greatest contribution to the overall failure rate tend to show themselves earlier, and so are fixed earlier. The suggested model allows a variety of reliability measures to be calculated. Predictions of total execution time(debugging time) is to achieve a target reliability. This model could also apply to computer-hardware reliability growth resulting from the elimination of design error and fault.

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Failure Prediction and Behavior of Cut-Slope based on Measured Data (계측결과에 의한 절토사면의 거동 및 파괴예측)

  • Jang, Seo-Yong;Han, Heui-Soo;Kim, Jong-Ryeol;Ma, Bong-Duk
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2006
  • To analyze the deformation and failure of slopes, generally, two types of model, Polynomial model and Growth model, are applied. These two models are focused on the behavior of the slope by time. Therefore, this research is more focused on predicting of slope failure than analyzing the slope behavior by time. Generally, Growth model is used to analyze the soil slope, to the contrary, Polynomial model is used for rock slope. However, 3-degree polynomial($y=ax^3+bx^2+cx+d$) is suggested to combine two models in this research. The main trait of this model is having an asymptote. The fields to adopt this model are Gosujae Danyang(soil slope) and Youngduk slope(rock slope), which are the cut-slope near national road. Data from Gosujae are shown the failure traits of soil slope, to the contrary, those of Youngduk slope are shown the traits of rock slope. From the real-time monitoring data of the slope, 3-degree polynomial is proved as excellent system to analyze the failure and behavior of slope. In case of Polynomial model, even if the order of polynomials is increased, the $R^2$ value and shape of the curve-fitted graph is almost the same.

Development of a complex failure prediction system using Hierarchical Attention Network (Hierarchical Attention Network를 이용한 복합 장애 발생 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Park, Youngchan;An, Sangjun;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2020
  • The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.

Structural Reliability Evaluation on Solder Joint of BGA and TSSOP Components under Random Vibration using Reliability and Life Prediction Tool of Sherlock (신뢰성 수명예측 도구 Sherlock을 활용한 랜덤진동에서의 BGA 및 TSSOP 솔더 접합부의 구조 신뢰성 평가)

  • Park, Tae-Yong;Park, Jong-Chan;Park, Hoon;Oh, Hyun-Ung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.45 no.12
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    • pp.1048-1058
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    • 2017
  • One of the failure mechanism of spaceborne electronics is a fatigue fracture on solder joint under launch random vibration. Thus, a necessity of early diagnosis through the fatigue life evaluation on solder joint arises to prevent such potential risk of failure. The conventional life prediction methods cannot assure the accuracy of life estimation results if the packaging type changes, and also requires much time and effort to construct the analysis model of highly integrated PCB with various packaging types. In this study, we performed life prediction of PCB based on a reliability and life prediction tool of sherlock as a new approach for evaluating the structural reliability on solder joint, and those prediction results were validated by fatigue tests. In addition, we also investigated an influence of solder height on the fatigue life of solder joint. These results indicated that the Sherlock is applicable tool for evaluating the structural reliability of spaceborne electronic.

Slope Failure Prediction through the Analysis of Surface Ground Deformation on Field Model Experiment (현장모형실험 기반 표층거동분석을 통한 사면붕괴 예측)

  • Park, Sung-Yong;Min, Yeon-Sik;Kang, Min-seo;Jung, Hee-Don;Sami, Ghazali-Flimban;Kim, Yong-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • Recently, one of the natural disasters, landslide is causing huge damage to people and properties. In order to minimize the damage caused by continuous landslide, a scientific management system is needed for technologies related to measurement and monitoring system. This study aims to establish a management system for landslide damage by prediction of slope failure. Ground behavior was predicted by surface ground deformation in case of slope failure, and the change in ground displacement was observed as slope surface. As a result, during the slope failure, the ground deformation has the collapse section, the after collapse precursor section, the acceleration section and the burst acceleration section. In all cases, increase in displacement with time was observed as a slope failure, and it is very important event of measurement and maintenance of risky slope. In the future, it can be used as basic data of slope management standard through continuous research. And it can contribute to reduction of landslide damage and activation of measurement industry.