• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction interval

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Risk Factors of Predicting Intensive Care unit Transfer in Deteriorating Ward Patients (병동 급성악화 환자의 중환자실 전동 위험요인 분석)

  • Lee, Ju-Ry
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.467-475
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: When a patient with acute deterioration occurs in a ward, the decision to transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) is critical to improve the patient's outcomes. However, when available ICU resources limited, it is difficult to determine which of the deteriorating ward patients to transfer to the ICU. Therefore the purpose of this study was to identify risk factors in predicting deteriorating ward patients transferred to intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: We reviewed retrospectively clinical data of 2,945 deteriorating ward patients who referred medical emergency team. Data were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression. Results: The solid cancer that diagnosed at hospitalization (odds ratio[OR] 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.32-0.47), when the cause of deterioration was respiratory problem (1.51; 95% CI 1.17-1.95), high MEWS (1.22; 1.17-1.28) and SpO2/FiO2 score (2.41; 2.23-2.60) were predictive of ICU transfer. Conclusion: These findings suggest that early prediction and treatment of patients with high risk of ICU transfer may improve the prognosis of patients.

Trend Analysis and Prediction of the Number of Births and the Number of Outpatients using Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석을 통한 출생아 수와 소아치과 내원 환자 수 추세 분석 및 예측)

  • Hwayeon, An;Seonmi, Kim;Namki, Choi
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.274-284
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of the number of births in Gwangju and the number of outpatients in Pediatric Dentistry at Chonnam National University Dental Hospital over the past 10 years (2010 - 2019) and predict the next year using time series analysis. The number of births showed an unstable downward trend with monthly variations, with the highest in January and the lowest in December. The average number of births in 2020 was predicted to be 682 (595 to 782, 95% CI), and the actual number of births was an average of 610. The number of outpatients was relatively stable, showing a month-to-month variation, with highest in August and the lowest in June. The average number of patients in 2020 was predicted to be 603 (505 to 701, 95% CI), and the average number of actual visits was 587. Despite the decrease in the number of births, the number of outpatients was expected to increase somewhat. Due to the special situation of COVID-19, the actual number of births and patients was to be slightly lower than the predicted values, but it was that they were within the predicted confidence interval. Time series analysis can be used as a basic tool to prepare for the low fertility era in the field of pediatric dentistry.

Prediction of 6-Month Mortality Using Pre-Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Lactate in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Veno-Arterial-Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

  • Kim, Eunchong;Sodirzhon-Ugli, Nodirbek Yuldashev;Kim, Do Wan;Lee, Kyo Seon;Lim, Yonghwan;Kim, Min-Chul;Cho, Yong Soo;Jung, Yong Hun;Jeung, Kyung Woon;Cho, Hwa Jin;Jeong, In Seok
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2022
  • Background: The effectiveness of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for patients with refractory cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest is being established, and serum lactate is well known as a biomarker of end-organ perfusion. We evaluated the efficacy of pre-ECMO lactate for predicting 6-month survival in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing ECMO. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of 148 patients who underwent veno-arterial (VA) ECMO for ACS between January 2015 and June 2020. These patients were divided into survivors and non-survivors based on 6-month survival. All clinical data before and during ECMO were compared between the 2 groups. Results: Patients' mean age was 66.0±10.5 years, and 116 (78.4%) were men. The total survival rate was 45.9% (n=68). Cox regression analysis showed that the pre-ECMO lactate level was an independent predictor of 6-month mortality (hazard ratio, 1.210; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.064-1.376; p=0.004). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of pre-ECMO lactate was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.56-0.72; p=0.002; cut-off value=9.8 mmol/L). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the cumulative survival rate at 6 months was significantly higher among patients with a pre-ECMO lactate level of 9.8 mmol/L or less than among those with a level exceeding 9.8 mmol/L (57.3% vs. 31.8%, p=0.0008). Conclusion: A pre-ECMO lactate of 9.8 mmol/L or less may predict a favorable outcome at 6 months in ACS patients undergoing VA-ECMO. Further research aiming to improve the accuracy of predictions of reversibility in patients with high pre-ECMO lactate levels is essential.

A Study on Verification of Equivalence and Effectiveness of Non-Pharmacologic Dementia Prevention and Early Detection Contents : Non-Randomly Equivalent Design

  • Jeong, Hyun-Seok;Kim, Oh-Lyong;Koo, Bon-Hoon;Kim, Ki-Hyun;Kim, Gi-Hwan;Bai, Dai-Seg;Kim, Ji-Yean;Chang, Mun-Seon;Kim, Hye-Geum
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.65 no.2
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    • pp.315-324
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    • 2022
  • Objective : The aim of this study was to verify the equivalence and effectiveness of the tablet-administered Korean Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (K-RBANS) for the prevention and early detection of dementia. Methods : Data from 88 psychiatry and neurology patient samples were examined to evaluate the equivalence between tablet and paper administrations of the K-RBANS using a non-randomly equivalent group design. We calculated the prediction scores of the tablet-administered K-RBANS based on demographics and covariate-test scores for focal tests using norm samples and tested format effects. In addition, we compared the receiver operating characteristic curves to confirm the effectiveness of the K-RBANS for preventing and detecting dementia. Results : In the analysis of raw scores, line orientation showed a significant difference (t=-2.94, p<0.001), and subtests showed small to large effect sizes (0.04-0.86) between paper- and tablet-administered K-RBANS. To investigate the format effect, we compared the predicted scaled scores of the tablet sample to the scaled scores of the norm sample. Consequently, a small effect size (d≤0.20) was observed in most of the subtests, except word list and story recall, which showed a medium effect size (d=0.21), while picture naming and subtests of delayed memory showed significant differences in the one-sample t-test. In addition, the area under the curve of the total scale index (TSI) (0.827; 95% confidence interval, 0.738-0.916) was higher than that of the five indices, ranging from 0.688 to 0.820. The sensitivity and specificity of TSI were 80% and 76%, respectively. Conclusion : The overall results of this study suggest that the tablet-administered K-RBANS showed significant equivalence to the norm sample, although some subtests showed format effects, and it may be used as a valid tool for the brief screening of patients with neuropsychological disorders in Korea.

Determinants of Willingness to Undergo Lung Cancer Screening among High-Risk Current and Ex-smokers in Sabah, Malaysia: A Cross-Sectional Pilot Study

  • Larry Ellee Nyanti;Chia Zhen Chua;Han Chuan Loo;Cheng Zhi Khor;Emilia Sheau Yuin Toh;Rasvinder Singh Gill;Eng Tat Chan;Ker Yin Tan;Taufiq Rosli;Muhammad Aklil Abd Rahim;Arfian Ibrahim;Nai Chien Huan;Hema Yamini Devi Ramarmuty;Kunji Kannan Sivaraman Kannan
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.86 no.4
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    • pp.284-293
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    • 2023
  • Background: Attitudes towards smoking, lung cancer screening, and perceived risk of lung cancer have not been widely studied in Malaysia. The primary objective of this study was to describe the factors affecting the willingness of high-risk current smokers and ex-smokers to undergo low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer. Methods: A prospective, cross-sectional questionnaire study was conducted in current smokers or ex-smokers aged between 55 and 80 years at three hospitals in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. The questionnaire recorded the following parameters: perceived lung cancer risk; Prostate Lung Colon Ovarian Cancer 2012 risk prediction model excluding race and ethnicity predictor (PLCOm2012norace); demographic characteristics; psychosocial characteristics; and attitudes towards lung cancer and lung cancer screening. Results: A vast majority of the 95 respondents (94.7%) indicated their willingness to undergo screening. Stigma of lung cancer, low levels of knowledge about lung cancer symptoms, concerns about financial constraints, and a preference for traditional medication were still prevalent among the respondents, and they may represent potential barriers to lung cancer screening uptake. A desire to have an early diagnosis (odds ratio [OR], 11.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.53 to 84.05; p=0.02), perceived time constraints (OR, 3.94; 95% CI, 1.32 to 11.73; p=0.01), and proximity of LDCT screening facilities (OR, 14.33; 95% CI, 1.84 to 111.4; p=0.01) had significantly higher odds of willingness to undergo screening. Conclusion: Although high-risk current smokers and ex-smokers are likely to undergo screening for lung cancer, several psychosocial barriers persist. The results of this study may guide the policymakers and clinicians regarding the need to improve lung cancer awareness in our population.

Clinical Course of Suspected Diagnosis of Pulmonary Tumor Thrombotic Microangiopathy: A 10-Year Experience of Rapid Progressive Right Ventricular Failure Syndrome in Advanced Cancer Patients

  • Minjung Bak;Minyeong Kim;Boram Lee;Eun Kyoung Kim;Taek Kyu Park;Jeong Hoon Yang;Duk-Kyung Kim;Sung-A Chang
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.170-184
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    • 2023
  • Background and Objectives: Several cases involving severe right ventricular (RV) failure in advanced cancer patients have been found to be pulmonary tumor thrombotic microangiopathies (PTTMs). This study aimed to discover the nature of rapid RV failure syndrome with a suspected diagnosis of PTTM for better diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis prediction in clinical practice. Methods: From 2011 to 2021, all patients with clinically suspected PTTM were derived from the one tertiary cancer hospital with more than 2000 in-hospital bed. Results: A total of 28 cases of clinically suspected PTTM with one biopsy confirmed case were included. The most common cancer types were breast (9/28, 32%) and the most common tissue type was adenocarcinoma (22/26, 85%). The time interval from dyspnea New York Heart Association (NYHA) Grade 2, 3, 4 to death, thrombocytopenia to death, desaturation to death, admission to death, RV failure to death, cardiogenic shock to death were 33.5 days, 14.5 days, 7.4 days, 6.4 days, 6.1 days, 6.0 days, 3.8 days and 1.2 days, respectively. The NYHA Grade 4 to death time was 7 days longer in those who received chemotherapy (7.1 days vs. 13.8 days, p value=0.030). However, anticoagulation, vasopressors or intensive care could not change clinical course. Conclusions: Rapid RV failure syndrome with a suspected diagnosis of PTTM showed a rapid progressive course from symptom onset to death. Although chemotherapy was effective, increased life survival was negligible, and treatments other than chemotherapy did not help to improve the patient's prognosis.

Value of Intraplaque Neovascularization on Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasonography in Predicting Ischemic Stroke Recurrence in Patients With Carotid Atherosclerotic Plaque

  • Zhe Huang;Xue-Qing Cheng;Ya-Ni Liu;Xiao-Jun Bi;You-Bin Deng
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.338-348
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    • 2023
  • Objective: Patients with a history of ischemic stroke are at risk for a second ischemic stroke. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between carotid plaque enhancement on perfluorobutane microbubble contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) and future recurrent stroke, and to determine whether plaque enhancement can contribute to risk assessment for recurrent stroke compared with the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS). Materials and Methods: This prospective study screened 151 patients with recent ischemic stroke and carotid atherosclerotic plaques at our hospital between August 2020 and December 2020. A total of 149 eligible patients underwent carotid CEUS, and 130 patients who were followed up for 15-27 months or until stroke recurrence were analyzed. Plaque enhancement on CEUS was investigated as a possible risk factor for stroke recurrence and as a possible adjunct to ESRS. Results: During follow-up, 25 patients (19.2%) experienced recurrent stroke. Patients with plaque enhancement on CEUS had an increased risk of stroke recurrence events (22/73, 30.1%) compared to those without plaque enhancement (3/57, 5.3%), with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 38.264 (95% confidence interval [CI]:14.975-97.767; P < 0.001) according to a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model analysis, indicating that the presence of carotid plaque enhancement was a significant independent predictor of recurrent stroke. When plaque enhancement was added to the ESRS, the HR for stroke recurrence in the high-risk group compared to that in the low-risk group (2.188; 95% CI, 0.025-3.388) was greater than that of the ESRS alone (1.706; 95% CI, 0.810-9.014). A net of 32.0% of the recurrence group was reclassified upward appropriately by the addition of plaque enhancement to the ESRS. Conclusion: Carotid plaque enhancement was a significant and independent predictor of stroke recurrence in patients with ischemic stroke. Furthermore, the addition of plaque enhancement improved the risk stratification capability of the ESRS.

Feasibility of a Clinical-Radiomics Model to Predict the Outcomes of Acute Ischemic Stroke

  • Yiran Zhou;Di Wu;Su Yan;Yan Xie;Shun Zhang;Wenzhi Lv;Yuanyuan Qin;Yufei Liu;Chengxia Liu;Jun Lu;Jia Li;Hongquan Zhu;Weiyin Vivian Liu;Huan Liu;Guiling Zhang;Wenzhen Zhu
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.8
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    • pp.811-820
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    • 2022
  • Objective: To develop a model incorporating radiomic features and clinical factors to accurately predict acute ischemic stroke (AIS) outcomes. Materials and Methods: Data from 522 AIS patients (382 male [73.2%]; mean age ± standard deviation, 58.9 ± 11.5 years) were randomly divided into the training (n = 311) and validation cohorts (n = 211). According to the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 6 months after hospital discharge, prognosis was dichotomized into good (mRS ≤ 2) and poor (mRS > 2); 1310 radiomics features were extracted from diffusion-weighted imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient maps. The minimum redundancy maximum relevance algorithm and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression method were implemented to select the features and establish a radiomics model. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the clinical factors and construct a clinical model. Ultimately, a multivariable logistic regression analysis incorporating independent clinical factors and radiomics score was implemented to establish the final combined prediction model using a backward step-down selection procedure, and a clinical-radiomics nomogram was developed. The models were evaluated using calibration, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curve analyses. Results: Age, sex, stroke history, diabetes, baseline mRS, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and radiomics score were independent predictors of AIS outcomes. The area under the ROC curve of the clinical-radiomics model was 0.868 (95% confidence interval, 0.825-0.910) in the training cohort and 0.890 (0.844-0.936) in the validation cohort, which was significantly larger than that of the clinical or radiomics models. The clinical radiomics nomogram was well calibrated (p > 0.05). The decision curve analysis indicated its clinical usefulness. Conclusion: The clinical-radiomics model outperformed individual clinical or radiomics models and achieved satisfactory performance in predicting AIS outcomes.

Development and Validation of 18F-FDG PET/CT-Based Multivariable Clinical Prediction Models for the Identification of Malignancy-Associated Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis

  • Xu Yang;Xia Lu;Jun Liu;Ying Kan;Wei Wang;Shuxin Zhang;Lei Liu;Jixia Li;Jigang Yang
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.466-478
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    • 2022
  • Objective: 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT is often used for detecting malignancy in patients with newly diagnosed hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), with acceptable sensitivity but relatively low specificity. The aim of this study was to improve the diagnostic ability of 18F-FDG PET/CT in identifying malignancy in patients with HLH by combining 18F-FDG PET/CT and clinical parameters. Materials and Methods: Ninety-seven patients (age ≥ 14 years) with secondary HLH were retrospectively reviewed and divided into the derivation (n = 71) and validation (n = 26) cohorts according to admission time. In the derivation cohort, 22 patients had malignancy-associated HLH (M-HLH) and 49 patients had non-malignancy-associated HLH (NM-HLH). Data on pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT and laboratory results were collected. The variables were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test or Pearson's chi-square test, and a nomogram for predicting M-HLH was constructed using multivariable binary logistic regression. The predictors were also ranked using decision-tree analysis. The nomogram and decision tree were validated in the validation cohort (10 patients with M-HLH and 16 patients with NM-HLH). Results: The ratio of the maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of the lymph nodes to that of the mediastinum, the ratio of the SUVmax of bone lesions or bone marrow to that of the mediastinum, and age were selected for constructing the model. The nomogram showed good performance in predicting M-HLH in the validation cohort, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.875 (95% confidence interval, 0.686-0.971). At an appropriate cutoff value, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying M-HLH were 90% (9/10) and 68.8% (11/16), respectively. The decision tree integrating the same variables showed 70% (7/10) sensitivity and 93.8% (15/16) specificity for identifying M-HLH. In comparison, visual analysis of 18F-FDG PET/CT images demonstrated 100% (10/10) sensitivity and 12.5% (2/16) specificity. Conclusion: 18F-FDG PET/CT may be a practical technique for identifying M-HLH. The model constructed using 18F-FDG PET/CT features and age was able to detect malignancy with better accuracy than visual analysis of 18F-FDG PET/CT images.

Prognostic Value of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI-Derived Pharmacokinetic Variables in Glioblastoma Patients: Analysis of Contrast-Enhancing Lesions and Non-Enhancing T2 High-Signal Intensity Lesions

  • Yeonah Kang;Eun Kyoung Hong;Jung Hyo Rhim;Roh-Eul Yoo;Koung Mi Kang;Tae Jin Yun;Ji-Hoon Kim;Chul-Ho Sohn;Sun-Won Park;Seung Hong Choi
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.707-716
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    • 2020
  • Objective: To evaluate pharmacokinetic variables from contrast-enhancing lesions (CELs) and non-enhancing T2 high signal intensity lesions (NE-T2HSILs) on dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for predicting progression-free survival (PFS) in glioblastoma (GBM) patients. Materials and Methods: Sixty-four GBM patients who had undergone preoperative DCE MR imaging and received standard treatment were retrospectively included. We analyzed the pharmacokinetic variables of the volume transfer constant (Ktrans) and volume fraction of extravascular extracellular space within the CEL and NE-T2HSIL of the entire tumor. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed using preoperative clinical characteristics, pharmacokinetic variables of DCE MR imaging, and postoperative molecular biomarkers to predict PFS. Results: The increased mean Ktrans of the CEL, increased 95th percentile Ktrans of the CELs, and absence of methylated O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter were relevant adverse variables for PFS in the univariate analysis (p = 0.041, p = 0.032, and p = 0.083, respectively). The Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated that PFS was significantly shorter in patients with a mean Ktrans of the CEL > 0.068 and 95th percentile Ktrans of the CEL > 0.223 (log-rank p = 0.038 and p = 0.041, respectively). However, only mean Ktrans of the CEL was significantly associated with PFS (p = 0.024; hazard ratio, 553.08; 95% confidence interval, 2.27-134756.74) in the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. None of the pharmacokinetic variables from NE-T2HSILs were significantly related to PFS. Conclusion: Among the pharmacokinetic variables extracted from CELs and NE-T2HSILs on preoperative DCE MR imaging, the mean Ktrans of CELs exhibits potential as a useful imaging predictor of PFS in GBM patients.