• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction interval

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The effectiveness of genomic selection for milk production traits of Holstein dairy cattle

  • Lee, Yun-Mi;Dang, Chang-Gwon;Alam, Mohammad Z.;Kim, You-Sam;Cho, Kwang-Hyeon;Park, Kyung-Do;Kim, Jong-Joo
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.382-389
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    • 2020
  • Objective: This study was conducted to test the efficiency of genomic selection for milk production traits in a Korean Holstein cattle population. Methods: A total of 506,481 milk production records from 293,855 animals (2,090 heads with single nucleotide polymorphism information) were used to estimate breeding value by single step best linear unbiased prediction. Results: The heritability estimates for milk, fat, and protein yields in the first parity were 0.28, 0.26, and 0.23, respectively. As the parity increased, the heritability decreased for all milk production traits. The estimated generation intervals of sire for the production of bulls (LSB) and that for the production of cows (LSC) were 7.9 and 8.1 years, respectively, and the estimated generation intervals of dams for the production of bulls (LDB) and cows (LDC) were 4.9 and 4.2 years, respectively. In the overall data set, the reliability of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) increased by 9% on average over that of estimated breeding value (EBV), and increased by 7% in cows with test records, about 4% in bulls with progeny records, and 13% in heifers without test records. The difference in the reliability between GEBV and EBV was especially significant for the data from young bulls, i.e. 17% on average for milk (39% vs 22%), fat (39% vs 22%), and protein (37% vs 22%) yields, respectively. When selected for the milk yield using GEBV, the genetic gain increased about 7.1% over the gain with the EBV in the cows with test records, and by 2.9% in bulls with progeny records, while the genetic gain increased by about 24.2% in heifers without test records and by 35% in young bulls without progeny records. Conclusion: More genetic gains can be expected through the use of GEBV than EBV, and genomic selection was more effective in the selection of young bulls and heifers without test records.

CEA, AFP, CA125, CA153 and CA199 in Malignant Pleural Effusions Predict the Cause

  • Wang, Xin-Feng;Wu, Yan-Hua;Wang, Mao-Shui;Wang, Yun-Shan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.363-368
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    • 2014
  • Determination of the cause of malignant pleural effusions is important for treatment and management, especially in cases of unknown primaries. There are limited biomarkers available for prediction of the cause of malignant pleural effusion in clinical practice. Hence, we evaluated pleural levels of five tumor biomarkers (CEA, AFP, CA125, CA153 and CA199) in predicting the cause of malignant pleural effusion in a retrospective study. Kruskal-Wallis or Mann-Whitney U tests were carried out to compare levels of tumor markers in pleural effusion among different forms of neoplasia - lung squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma, or small cell carcinoma, mesothelioma, breast cancer, lymphoma/leukemia and miscellaneous. Receiver operator characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of biomarkers. The Kruskal-Wallis test showed significant differences in levels of pleural effusion CEA (P<0.01), AFP (P<0.01), CA153 (P<0.01) and CA199 (P<0.01), but not CA125 (P>0.05), among the seven groups. Receiver operator characteristic analysis showed that, compared with other four tumor markers, CA153 was the best biomarker in diagnosing malignant pleural effusions of lung adenocarcinoma (area under curve (AUC): 0.838 (95%confidence interval: 0.787, 0.888); cut-off value: 10.2U/ml; sensitivity: 73.2% (64.4-80.8)%, specificity: 85.2% (77.8-90.8)%), lung squamous cell carcinoma (AUC: 0.716 (0.652, 0.780); cut-off value: 14.2U/ml; sensitivity: 57.6% (50.7-64.3)%, specificity: 91.2% (76.3-98.0)%), and small-cell lung cancer (AUC: 0.812 (0.740, 0.884); cut-off value: 9.7U/ml; sensitivity: 61.5% (55.0-67.8)%, specificity: 94.1% (71.2-99.0)%); CEA was the best biomarker in diagnosing MPEs of mesothelioma (AUC: 0.726 (0.593, 0.858); cut-off value: 1.43ng/ml; sensitivity: 83.7% (78.3-88.2)%, specificity: 61.1% (35.8-82.6)%) and lymphoma/leukemia (AUC: 0.923 (0.872, 0.974); cut-off value: 1.71ng/ml; sensitivity: 82.8% (77.4-87.3)%, specificity: 92.3% (63.9-98.7)%). Thus CA153 and CEA appear to be good biomarkers in diagnosing different causes of malignant pleural effusion. Our findings implied that the two tumor markers may improve the diagnosis and treatment for effusions of unknown primaries.

Preliminary Evaluation of Clinical Utility of CYFRA 21-1, CA 72-4, NSE, CA19-9 and CEA in Stomach Cancer

  • Gwak, Hee Keun;Lee, Jai Hyuen;Park, Seok Gun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.4933-4938
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    • 2014
  • Background: Although various tumor markers have been utilized in management of stomach cancer (SC), only a few reports have described relevance of examples such as CYFRA 21-1 and neuron-specific enolase (NSE). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential diagnostic performance of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CA 19-9, CA72-4, CYFRA 21-1 and NSE in patients with SC. Materials and Methods: Ninety-six SC patients with pathologic confirmation between 2012 and 2013 were enrolled. Serum levels of five tumor markers were analyzed using a solid-phase immunoradiometric assay. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for the five tumor markers to investigate their diagnostic powers and adjusted cutoff values derived from analysis of ROC curves were evaluated to calculate the sensitivity of each for SC with recommended cutoff values. Results: Based on two different cutoff values (recommended and adjusted), CYFRA 21-1 (${\geq}2.0$ and 1.2 ng/ml) had a respective sensitivity of 50% and 78.1%, compared with 8.3% and 18.8% for CEA (${\geq}7.0$ and 3.9 ng/ml), 15.6% and 18.8% for CA 19-9 (${\geq}37$ and 26.7 ng/ml), 28.1% and 9.6% for CA 72-4 (${\geq}4.0$ and 13 ng/ml) and 7.3% and 7.3% for NSE (${\geq}14.7$ and 15.0 ng/ml) in the initial staging of primary SC. The area under the curve (AUC) for CYFRA 21-1, with a value of 0.978 (95% confidence interval, 0.964-0.991) was comparatively the highest. Univariate analysis revealed significant relationships between tumor marker level and lymph node involvement, metastasis and staging with CYFRA 21-1, CA 72-4 and NSE. Conclusions: CYFRA 21-1 was the most sensitive tumor marker and showed the most powerful diagnostic performance among the five SC tumor markers. NSE and CA 72-4 are significantly related to lymph node involvement, metastasis or stage. Further evaluations are warranted to clarify the clinical usefulness and prognostic prediction of these markers in SC.

Numerical Study on the Thermal NOx Reduction by Addition of Moisture in LNG Flame (가습 공기의 LNG 화염 Thermal NOx 저감의 수치 해석적 연구)

  • Shin, Mi-Soo;Park, Mi-Sun;Jang, Dong-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.837-842
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    • 2014
  • A computer program is developed for the prediction of NO generation by the addition of water moisture and water electrolysis gas in LNG-fired turbulent reacting flow. This study is the first part to deal with the moisture effect on NO generation. In this study, parametric investigation has been made in order to see the reduction of thermal NO as a function of amount of moisture content in a LNG-fired flame together with the swirl and radiation effect. First of all, calculation results show that the flame separation together with the NO concentration separation are observed by the typical flow separation due to strong swirl flow. With a fixed amount of air, the increased amount of water moisture from 0 to 10% by 2% interval shows the decrease of NO concentration and flame temperature at exit are from $973^{\circ}C$ and 139 ppm to $852^{\circ}C$ and 71 ppm. The radiation effects on the generation on NO appears more dominant than swirl strength over the range employed in this study. However, for the strong swirl flow employed in this study, the flow separation cause the relatively high NO concentration observed near exit after peak concentration in the front side of the combustor.

Colorectal Cancer Concealment Predicts a Poor Survival: A Retrospective Study

  • Li, Xiao-Pan;Xie, Zhen-Yu;Fu, Yi-Fei;Yang, Chen;Hao, Li-Peng;Yang, Li-Ming;Zhang, Mei-Yu;Li, Xiao-Li;Feng, Li-Li;Yan, Bei;Sun, Qiao
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.4157-4160
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: Understanding the situation of cancer awareness which doctors give to patients might lead to prognostic prediction in cases of of colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods: Subsets of 10,779 CRC patients were used to screen the risk factors from the Cancer Registry in Pudong New Area in cancer awareness, age, TNM stage, and gender. Survival of the patients was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and assessed by Cox regression analysis. The views of cancer awareness in doctors and patients were surveyed by telephone or household. Results: After a median observation time of 1,616 days (ranging from 0 to 4,083 days) of 10,779 available patients, 2,596 of the 4,561 patients with cancer awareness survived, whereas 2,258 of the 5,469 patients without cancer awareness and 406 of the 749 patients without information on cancer awareness died of the disease. All-cause and cancer-specific survival were poorer for the patients without cancer awareness than those with (P < 0.001 for each, log-rank test). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that cancer concealment cases had significantly lower cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.299; 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.200-1.407)and all-cause survival (HR = 1.324; 95 % CI: 1.227-1.428). Furthermore, attitudes of cancer awareness between doctors and patients were significantly different (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Cancer concealment, not only late-stage tumor and age, is associated with a poor survival of CRC patients.

Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 Levels Associated with Pathological Responses to Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Rectal Cancer

  • Yeo, Seung-Gu;Kim, Dae Yong;Kim, Tae Hyun;Kim, Sun Young;Baek, Ji Yeon;Chang, Hee Jin;Park, Ji Won;Oh, Jae Hwan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.13
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    • pp.5383-5387
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: To investigate whether pretreatment serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) levels are associated with pathological responses to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: In total, 260 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (cT3-4NanyM0) who underwent preoperative CRT and radical surgery were analyzed retrospectively. CRT consisted of 50.4 Gy pelvic radiotherapy and concurrent chemotherapy. Radical surgery was performed at a median of 7 weeks after CRT completion. Pathological CRT response criteria included downstaging (ypStage 0-I) and ypT0-1. A discrimination threshold of CA 19-9 level was determined using a receiver operating characteristics analysis. Results: The median CA 19-9 level was 8.0 (1.0-648.0) U/mL. Downstaging occurred in 94 (36.2%) patients and ypT0-1 in 50 (19.2%). The calculated optimal threshold CA 19-9 level was 10.2 U/mL for downstaging and 9.0 U/mL for ypT0-1. On multivariate analysis, CA 19-9 (${\leq}9.0U/mL$) was significantly associated with downstaging (odds ratio, 2.089; 95% confidence interval, 1.189-3.669; P=0.010) or ypT0-1 (OR, 2.207; 95%CI, 1.079-4.512; P=0.030), independent of clinical stage or carcinoembryonic antigen. Conclusions: This study firstly showed a significant association of pretreatment serum CA 19-9 levels with pathological CRT responses of rectal cancer. The CA 19-9 level is suggested to be valuable in predicting CRT responses of rectal cancer cases before treatment.

Dissipation Pattern of Amisulbrom in Cucumber under Greenhouse Condition for Establishing Pre-harvest Residue Limit (생산단계 잔류허용 기준 설정을 위한 시설 재배 오이 중 살균제 Amisulbrom의 잔류특성 연구)

  • Hwang, Kyu-Won;Kim, Tae Wan;Yoo, Jae-Hong;Park, Byeoung-Soo;Moon, Joon-Kwan
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.288-293
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    • 2012
  • The dissipation patterns of amisulbrom in cucumber under a greenhouse condition was investigated to establish biological half-life and pre-harvest residue limit (PHRL). Amisulbrom residue in/on cucumber on the day of application under standard application condition was $0.15mg\;kg^{-1}$ and decreased to $0.06mg\;kg^{-1}$ after 5 days after treatment, so that biological half-life calculated 3.6 day, while initial concentration of amisulbrom twice application 3 days interval under standard application condition was $0.35mg\;kg^{-1}$ and decreased to $0.09mg\;kg^{-1}$ after same period and the biological half-life calculated 2.4 day. PHRL was suggested by prediction curve calculated from the decay constant of amisulbrom at standard rate. For example, $1.83mg\;kg^{-1}$ at 5 days before harvest and $1.03mg\;kg^{-1}$ at 2 days before harvest were suggested.

Soil Moisture Modelling at the Topsoil of a Hillslope in the Gwangneung National Arboretum Using a Transfer Function (전이함수를 통한 광릉 산림 유역의 토양수분 모델링)

  • Choi, Kyung-Moon;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Son, Mi-Na;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2008
  • Soil moisture is one of the important components in hydrological processes and also controls the subsurface flow mechanism at a hillslope scale. In this study, time series of soil moisture were measured at a hillslope located in Gwangneung National Arboretum, Korea using a multiplex Time Domain Reflectometry(TDR) system measuring soil moisture with bi-hour interval. The Box-Jenkins transfer function and noise model was used to estimate spatial distributions of soil moisture histories between May and September, 2007. Rainfall was used as an input parameter and soil moisture at 10 cm depth was used as an output parameter in the model. The modeling process consisted of a series of procedures(e.g., data pretreatment, model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of selected models), and the relationship between soil moisture and rainfall was assessed. The results indicated that the patterns of soil moisture at different locations and slopes along the hillslope were similar with those of rainfall during the measurment period. However, the spatial distribution of soil moisture was not associated with the slope of the monitored location. This implies that the variability of the soil moisture was determined more by rainfall than by the slope of the site. Due to the influence of vegetation activity on soil moisture flow in spring, the soil moisture prediction in spring showed higher variability and complexity than that in early autumn did. This indicates that vegetation activity is an important factor explaining the patterns of soil moisture for an upland forested hillslope.

Multiple Period Forecasting of Motorway Traffic Volumes by Using Big Historical Data (대용량 이력자료를 활용한 다중시간대 고속도로 교통량 예측)

  • Chang, Hyun-ho;Yoon, Byoung-jo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2018
  • In motorway traffic flow control, the conventional way based on real-time response has been changed into advanced way based on proactive response. Future traffic conditions over multiple time intervals are crucial input data for advanced motorway traffic flow control. It is necessary to overcome the uncertainty of the future state in order for forecasting multiple-period traffic volumes, as the number of uncertainty concurrently increase when the forecasting horizon expands. In this vein, multi-interval forecasting of traffic volumes requires a viable approach to conquer future uncertainties successfully. In this paper, a forecasting model is proposed which effectively addresses the uncertainties of future state based on the behaviors of temporal evolution of traffic volume states that intrinsically exits in the big past data. The model selects the past states from the big past data based on the state evolution of current traffic volumes, and then the selected past states are employed for estimating future states. The model was also designed to be suitable for data management systems in practice. Test results demonstrated that the model can effectively overcome the uncertainties over multiple time periods and can generate very reliable predictions in term of prediction accuracy. Hence, it is indicated that the model can be mounted and utilized on advanced data management systems.

Prediction of weight loss of low temperature storage tomato (Tiwai 250) by non-destructive firmness measurement (비파괴적인 경도 측정을 통한 저온저장 토마토(티와이250)의 감모율 예측)

  • Cui, Jinshi;Yoo, Areum;Yang, Myongkyoon;Cho, Seong In
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.181-186
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to investigate the weight loss, firmness, external color and vitamin C (VC) content of tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum) using non-destructive method to measure identical tomato samples during 15 days storage at low temperature and high humidity. Tomatoes were harvested at the light red stage, sorted, box packed and then stored in thermo-hygrostat ($10{\pm}1^{\circ}C$, $90{\pm}10%RH$). The quality changes in weight loss, firmness and external color were measured every 3 day interval. Weight loss was increased by $1.13{\pm}0.15%$, but it may not be considered to affect quality. Surface color of fruit was changed, especially in lightness and hue angle value. The color values were analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the results were significant (p<0.001). Firmness of fruit declined during storage, but it did not decrease in direct proportion. On the storage of day 15, firmness was decreased to 40% of initial state. At last, all the experiment data are summarized and the relationship between firmness and weight loss is analyzed to construct a linear regression mathematical model that can predict the weight loss with the firmness value measured by non-destructive method. This research result could be useful in helping tomato exporters and suppliers to get real-time quality factor by using proposed method and regression model.