• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction interval

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Adaptive Update Rate Tracking Using IMM Algorithm (IMM 알고리듬을 이용한 적응 최신화 빈도 추적)

  • 신형조;홍선목
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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    • v.30B no.12
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 1993
  • In this paper we propose an adaptive update rate tracking algorithm for a phased array radar, based on the interacting multiple model(IMM) algorithm. The purpose of the IMM algorithm hers is twofold: 1) to estimate and predict the target states, and 2) to estimate the level of the process noise. Using the estimate of the process noise level adapted to target dynamics, the update interval is determined to maintain a desired prediction accuracy so that the radar system load is minimized. The adaptive update rate tracking algorithm is implemented for a phased array radar and evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations on various trajectories. The evaluation results of the proposed algorithm and a standard Kalman filter without the adaptive update rate control are presented to compare.

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Cutting Characteristics in Ball Endmilling (볼 엔드밀 가공시의 절삭특성에 관한 고찰)

  • Hong, Nam-Pyo;Kim, Byeong-Hee
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.17
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 1997
  • This paper deals with the study on the cutting characteristics in ball endmilling process. First of all, the effects of the geometric cutting conditions such as the cutting speed, feedrates and the path interval on the surface integrity were evaluated by the analytical and the experimental approaches. Secondly, the cutting mechanism model was developed to predict the cutting force accurately. Prediction of cutting force make it possible to predict the shape error, estimate system stability and build the reliable adaptive control system. A large amount of experimental set are performed to show the validities of the proposed theories and to investigate the effect of cutting geometry such as rubbing effects, burr effects and etc.

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Study on the guidance of the gust factor (돌풍계수 가이던스에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hyo-Soon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2004
  • In this study, two years Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data observed near the coast and islands are used to evaluate gust factors only when time averaged wind speed is higher than 5 ms. The gust factors are quite different in spatial and temporal domain according to analysis method. As the averaged time is increased, the gust factors are also increased. But the gust factors are decreased when wind speed is increased. It is because each wind speed is averaged one and a maximum wind is the greatest one for each time interval. The result from t-test is shown that all data are included within the 99% significance level. A sample standard deviation of ten minutes and one minute are 0.137~0.197, 0.067~0.142, respectively. Recently, the gust factor provided at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Homepage is calculated with one-hour averaged method. All though this method is hard to use directly for forecasting the strong wind over sea and coast, the result will be a great help to express Ocean Storm Flash in the Regional Meteorological Offices and the Meteorological Stations.

A Study on the Structure of Turbulent Flow Fields According to the Operating Loads of Three-Dimensional Small-Size Axial Fan by Large Eddy Simulation (대규모와 모사에 의한 3차원 소형축류홴의 운전부하에 따른 난류유동장 구조에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Jang-Kweon;Oh, Seok-Hyung
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.80-85
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    • 2015
  • The unsteady-state, incompressible and three-dimensional large eddy simulation(LES) was carried out to analyze the structure of turbulent flow fields according to the operating loads of three-dimensional small-size axial fan(SSAF). LES shows the best prediction performance in comparison with any other Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS) method because static pressure coefficients analysed by LES show a little bit larger than measurements including all flow coefficients. Also, it can be known that the wake of SSAF is divided into from axial flow to radial flow before and behind stall region according to the increase of static pressure through LES analysis.

A Study on Wear Life Prediction of Disk Brake Pads (디스크 브레이크 패드 수명 예측에 관한 연구)

  • 여태인
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a numerical technique to analyze wear life of automotive disk brake pad, where FFT-FEM method is adopted to determine the transient temperature distribution of the disk surface. A specimen ova frictional material is tested on a small scale brake dynamometer to find the dependency of the wear rate on temperature change, from which and the temperature analysis results, given the wear test mode, wear behavior of the pad material fur the vehicle can be predicted. Numerical examples show the predicted wear life of the vehicle coincides with the manufacture's recommended time interval for replacing the pads.

A semiparametric method to measure predictive accuracy of covariates for doubly censored survival outcomes

  • Han, Seungbong;Lee, JungBok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.343-353
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    • 2016
  • In doubly-censored data, an originating event time and a terminating event time are interval-censored. In certain analyses of such data, a researcher might be interested in the elapsed time between the originating and terminating events as well as regression modeling with risk factors. Therefore, in this study, we introduce a model evaluation method to measure the predictive ability of a model based on negative predictive values. We use a semiparametric estimate of the predictive accuracy to provide a simple and flexible method for model evaluation of doubly-censored survival outcomes. Additionally, we used simulation studies and tested data from a prostate cancer trial to illustrate the practical advantages of our approach. We believe that this method could be widely used to build prediction models or nomograms.

Design of an adaptive tracking algorithm for a phased array radar (위상배열 레이다를 위한 적응 추적 알고리즘의 설계)

  • Son, Keon;Hong, Sun-Mog
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1992.10a
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    • pp.541-547
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    • 1992
  • The phased array antenna has the ability to perform adaptive sampling by directing the radar beam without inertia in any direction. The adaptive sampling capability of the phased array antenna allows each sampling time interval to be varied for each target, depending on the acceleration of each target at any time. In this paper we design a three-dimensional adaptive tracking algorithm for the phased array radar system with a given set of measurement parameters. The tracking algorithm avoids taking unnecessarily frequent samples, while keeping the angular prediction error within a fraction of antenna beamwidth so that the probability of detection will not be degraded during a track update illuminations. In our algorithm, the target model and the sampling rate are selected depending on the target range and the target maneuver status which is determined by a maneuver detector. A detailed simulation is conducted to test the validity of our tracking algorithm for encounter geometries under various conditions of maneuver.

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An Approximate Model for Predicting Roll Force in Rod Rolling

  • Lee, Youngseog;Kim, Hong-Joon
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.501-511
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a study of the effect of rolling temperature, roll gap (pass height), initial specimen size and steel grades of specimens on the roll force in round-oval-round pass sequence by applying approximate method and verifications through single stand pilot rod rolling tests. The results show that the predicted roll forces are in good agreement with the experimentally measured ones. The approximate model is independent of the change of roll gap, specimen size and temperature. Thus, the generality of the prediction methodology employed in the approximate model is proven. This study also demonstrates that Shida's constitutive equation employed in the approximate model needs to be corrected somehow to be applicable for the medium and high carbon steels in a lower temperature interval (700∼900$\^{C}$).

Quantitative Assessment of the Diagnostic Role of CDH13 Promoter Methylation in Lung Cancer

  • Zhong, Yun-Hua;Peng, Hao;Cheng, Hong-Zhong;Wang, Ping
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1139-1143
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    • 2015
  • In order to explore the association between cadherin 13 (CDH13) gene promoter methylation and lung carcinoma (LC) risk, we carried out a meta-analysis with searching of PubMed, Web of Science. Ultimately, 17 articles were identified and analysised by STATA 12.0 software. Overall, we found a significant relationship between CDH13 promoter methylation and LC risk (odds ratio=6.98, 95% confidence interval: 4.21-11.56, p<0.001). Subgroup analyses further revealed that LC risk was increased for individuals carrying the methylated CDH13 compared with those with unmethylated CDH13. Hence, our study identified a strong association between CDH13 gene promoter methylation and LC and highlighted a promising potential for CDH13 methylation in LC risk prediction.

VaR Estimation via Transformed GARCH Models (변환된 GARCH 모형을 활용한 VaR 추정)

  • Park, Ju-Yeon;Yeo, In-Kwon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.891-901
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we investigate the approach to estimate VaR under the transformed GARCH model. The time series are transformed to approximate to the underlying distribution of error terms and then the parameters and the one-sided prediction interval are estimated with the transformed data. The back-transformation is applied to compute the VaR in the original data scale. The analyses on the asset returns of KOSPI and KOSDAQ are presented to verify the accuracy of the coverage probabilities of the proposed VaR.