• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction equation

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R&D Activities, Imperfect Competition and Economic Growth (R&D 및 불완전경쟁과 경제성장)

  • Kim, Byung-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.47-72
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    • 2007
  • Ideas do not become exhausted, and there are no diminishing returns in the creation of knowledge. Nonetheless, growth ultimately ceases in this simplest model of endogeneous innovation. The reasons are similar to those that are discussed in the context of the neoclassical model of capital accumulation. Even if the resource cost of creating new goods does not rise, the economic return to invention may decline as the number of available products increases. When the rate of return to R&D falls to the level of the discount rate, private agents cease to be willing to defer consumption in order to invest in product development. But, if we treat knowledge capital as a public capital considering of its non-appropriable benefits, economic growth can be sustained in the economy. Romer(1986) has pointed out that growth might be sustainable if the accumulation of knowledge is not subject to long-run diminishing returns. Actually Romer assumed diminishing returns in the production of private knowledge from available resources, but increasing returns in the production of output from labor and total (public and private) knowledge. His condition for the sustainability of long-run growth amounts to an assumption that the diminishing returns in the former activity do not outweigh the increasing returns in the latter. The Johansen(1988) cointegration test method is used for finding long-run equilibrium relationship between R&D input and the product innovation. Test results indicate the existence of cointegrating equation between each pair of regression variables including dependent variable in the knowledge production function. And, the signs of cointegrating vectors are well accord to the prediction of sustainable growth. In the empirical analysis, from all cases of the form for the knowledge production function, we could not reject the null hypothesis that R&D spillover effect is significant($H_{0}:\;{\gamma}=1$). In summary, we showed that considering goodness of fit of regression model, we can see that the empirical evidence is strongly in favor of the character of knowledge as the public knowledge capital. So, we can expect that by product innovation, economic growth can be sustained in the Korean economy.

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Real-Time Forecasting of Flood Discharges Upstream and Downstream of a Multipurpose Dam Using Grey Models (Grey 모형을 이용한 다목적댐의 유입 홍수량과 하류 하천 홍수량 실시간 예측)

  • Kang, Min-Goo;Cai, Ximing;Koh, Deuk-Koo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2009
  • To efficiently carry out the flood management of a multipurpose dam, two flood forecasting models are developed, each of which has the capabilities of forecasting upstream inflows and flood discharges downstream of a dam, respectively. The models are calibrated, validated, and evaluated by comparison of the observed and the runoff forecasts upstream and downstream of Namgang Dam. The upstream inflow forecasting model is based on the Grey system theory and employs the sixth order differential equation. By comparing the inflows forecasted by the models calibrated using different data sets with the observed in validation, the most appropriate model is determined. To forecast flood discharges downstream of a dam, a Grey model is integrated with a modified Muskingum flow routing model. A comparison of the observed and the forecasted values in validation reveals that the model can provide good forecasts for the dam's flood management. The applications of the two models to forecasting floods in real situations show that they provide reasonable results. In addition, it is revealed that to enhance the prediction accuracy, the models are necessary to be calibrated and applied considering runoff stages; the rising, peak, and falling stages.

Comparison of Dynamic Origin Destination Demand Estimation Models in Highway Network (고속도로 네트워크에서 동적기종점수요 추정기법 비교연구)

  • 이승재;조범철;김종형
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2000
  • The traffic management schemes through traffic signal control and information provision could be effective when the link-level data and trip-level data were used simultaneously in analysis Procedures. But, because the trip-level data. such as origin, destination and departure time, can not be obtained through the existing surveillance systems directly. It is needed to estimate it using the link-level data which can be obtained easily. Therefore the objective of this study is to develop the model to estimate O-D demand using only the link flows in highway network as a real time. The methodological approaches in this study are kalman filer, least-square method and normalized least-square method. The kalman filter is developed in the basis of the bayesian update. The normalized least-square method is developed in the basis of the least-square method and the natural constraint equation. These three models were experimented using two kinds of simulated data. The one has two abrupt changing Patterns in traffic flow rates The other is a 24 hours data that has three Peak times in a day Among these models, kalman filer has Produced more accurate and adaptive results than others. Therefore it is seemed that this model could be used in traffic demand management. control, travel time forecasting and dynamic assignment, and so forth.

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Retention Time Prediction form Molecular Structure of Sulfur Compounds by Gas Chromatography (기체크로마토그래피에서 황화합물의 구조를 통한 용리시간 예측)

  • Kim, Young Gu;Kim, Won Ho;Pak, Hyung Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.646-651
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    • 1998
  • The molecular structure of sulfur compounds and the retention relationship are studied by gas chromatography. Analyzed sulfur compounds are, hydrogen sulfide, sulfur dioxide, carbon disulfide, ethyl mercaptan, dimethyl sulfide, iso-propyl mercaptan, normal propyl mercaptan, ethyl methyl sulfide, tert-butyl mercaptan, tetrahydrothiophene, thiophene, and 2-chlorothiophene. Multiple linear regression explains the retention relationship of molecular descriptors. In GC the temperature program is 30$^{\circ}C$ held for 10.5 min, and then increased to 150$^{\circ}C$ at a rate 15$^{\circ}C$/min. Predicted equation for relative retention time (RRT) using SAS program is as follows; $RRT=0.121bp+14.39dp-8.94dp^2+0.0741sqmw-35.78\; (N=8,\; R^2=0.989, \;Variance=0.175,\;F=66.21)$. RRTs are function of boiling point, the square root of molecular weight, molecular dipole moment, and boiling point effects mostly on RRT. The RRT is maximized at the molecular dipole moment of 0.805D, when using nonpolar columns. The planar and highly symmetric compounds are eluted slowly. The square, of correlation coefficient $(R^2)$ using SAS program, is 0.989, and the variance is 0.175 in training sets. For three sulfur compounds, the variance between observed RRTs and predicted RRTs is 0.432 in testing sets.

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Application of the JMA instrumental intensity in Korea (일본 기상청 계측진도의 국내 활용)

  • Kim, Hye-Lim;Kim, Sung-Kyun;Choi, Kang-Ryong
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2010
  • In general, the seismic intensity deduced from instrumental data has been evaluated from the empirical relation between the intensity and the PGA. From the point of view that the degree of earthquake damage is more closely associated with the seismic intensity than with the observed PGA, JMA developed the instrumental seismic intensity (JMA instrumental intensity) meter that estimate the real-time seismic intensity from the observed strong motion data to obtain a more correct estimate of earthquake damage. The purpose of the present study is to propose a practical application of the JMA instrumental intensity in Korea. Since the occurrence of strong earthquakes is scarce in the Korean Peninsula, there is an insufficiency of strong motion data. As a result, strong motion data were synthesized by a stochastic procedure to satisfy the characteristics of a seismic source and crustal attenuation of the Peninsula. Six engineering ground motion parameters, including the JMA instrumental intensity, were determined from the synthesized strong motion data. The empirical relations between the ground motion parameters were then analyzed. Cluster analysis to classify the parameters into groups was also performed. The result showed that the JMA acceleration ($a_0$) could be classified into similar group with the spectrum intensity and the relatively distant group with the CAV (Cumulative Absolute Velocity). It is thought that the $a_0$ or JMA intensity can be used as an alternative criterion in the evaluation of seismic damage. On the other hand, attenuation relation equations for PGA and $a_0$ to be used in the prediction of seismic hazard were derived as functions of the moment magnitude and hypocentral distance.

The Effects of Past Success on Performance: The Mediating Role of Self-Efficacy, Burnout, and Engagement (과거성공이 성과에 미치는 영향 : 자아효능감, 소진, 몰입의 매개역할을 중심으로)

  • Im, Chang-Hee
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.49-78
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    • 2010
  • Traditionally, self-efficacy, burnout and engagement are defined as work related states of mind, and formally speaking, students are not employees. But, we assume that from a psychological perspective, student core activities can be considered work. Therefore, based on SCT(social cognitive theory), we examine the mediating role of self-efficacy in the prediction of student burnout and engagement, and also the mediation of burnout and engagement between self-efficacy and performance(GPA). There is no research to date wether there would be mediating role of these variables between past success and performance. These effects were analysed in the context of mediating role of the variables in a university in a sample of 438 students. This study utilized a convenience sample drawn from various major scholar area. Results of structural equation modeling analyses were consist with a full mediation model in which academic past success predicts self-efficacy, which in turn, predicts student burnout and engagement. Also our proposed model showed that burnout and engagement are partial or full mediating variables between self-efficacy and performance. Our study's findings provide evidence that engagement fully accounted for the relationship between self-efficacy and performance, and burnout partially explained the relationships. These findings aligns with the general theorizing supported by JD-R model and SCT(social cognitive theory). More specifically, it builds on the JD-R literature as it tests one of the proposed mechanisms in the relationship between job resources and work engagement. Implications of study are discussed, together with limitations and suggestions for future research.

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A Study on the Horizontal Drainage Method Using Plastic Drain Board (플라스틱 배수재를 이용한 수평배수공법에 관한 연구)

  • 황정규;김홍택;김석열;강인규;김승욱
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.93-112
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    • 1998
  • In the present study, 2-D consolidation theory of the dredged clay by means of the horizontal drain method is proposed. The horizontal drain method to install the drains such as plastic drain board within the dredged clay is a soil improvement method to accelerate the consolidation by expelling pore water in the vertical direction along the horizontal drains. Based on the finite strain consolidation theory by Gibson et al., the partial differential equation of 2-D consolidation due to the horizontal drain is derived. The consolidation due to the horizontal drain can be illustrated from combined self-weight consolidation effect and consolidation effect by horizontal drains. For the prediction of consolidation settlement and degree of consolidation numerical analysis is suggested on the basis of Dufort-Frankel finite differential algorithm. Also, the analytical procedures proposed in this study are verified by the model tests, and the predictions of the consolidation settlement and degree of consolidation are compared with the results obtained from the tests for the dredged clay gathering at Siwha site in Ansan, Korea. For the predictions, the relationship void ratio vs effective stress and the relationship permeability vs void ratio of the dredged clay are obtained from the odometer tests. Additionally, the parametric study for consolidation settlement by variations of design parameters related with horizontal drain method is carried out. Based on the results of the parametric study, design .charts for the preliminary design are also proposed.

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Fiber Orientation Factor on a Circular Cross-Section in Concrete Members (콘크리트 원형단면에서의 섬유분포계수)

  • Lee, Seong-Cheol;Oh, Jeong-Hwan;Cho, Jae-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.307-313
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    • 2014
  • In order to predict the post-cracking tensile behavior of fiber reinforced concrete, it is necessary to evaluate the fiber orientation factor which indicates the number of fibers bridging a crack. For investigation of fiber orientation factor on a circular cross-section, in this paper, cylindrical steel fiber reinforced concrete specimens were casted with the variables of concrete compressive strength, circular cross-section size, fiber type, and fiber volumetric ratio. The specimens were cut perpendicularly to the casting direction so that the fiber orientation factor could be evaluated through counting the number of fibers on the circular cross-section. From the test results, it was investigated that the fiber orientation factor on a circular cross-section was lower than 0.5 generally adopted, as fibers tended to be perpendicular to the casting direction. In addition, it was observed that the fiber orientation factor decreased with an increase of the number of fibers per unit cross-section area. For rational prediction of the fiber orientation factor on a circular section, a rigorous model and a simplified equation were derived through taking account of a possible fiber inclination angle considering the circular boundary surface. From the comparison of the measured data and the predicted values, it was found that the fiber orientation factor was well predicted by the proposed model. The test results and the proposed model can be useful for researches on structural behavior of steel fiber reinforced columns with a circular cross-section.

Optimal Extraction Conditions of Flavonoids from Onion Peels via Response Surface Methodology (양파껍질로부터 Flavonoid 물질의 추출조건 최적화)

  • Jeon, Seon-Young;Baek, Jeong-Hwa;Jeong, Eun-Jeong;Cha, Yong-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.695-699
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study was to set the optimal extraction condition of flavonoids from onion peels as a by-product generated from the onion industry without suitable processing. Four independent variables, affecting extraction conditions, which are solvent concentration ($X_1$), extraction temperature ($X_2$), pH of the solvent ($X_3$), and solvent ratio to onion peel ($X_4$) were optimized using response surface methodology (RSM). A model equation obtained from RSM is 0.772 of R-square and 0.278 of lack of fit (p>0.05) for the optimal extraction conditions. From the ridge analysis, the conditions flavoring the highest extraction were solvent concentration (v/v) of 70%, extraction temperature of $40^{\circ}C$, extraction solvent pH of 5.3, and a solvent ratio to onion peel ratio of 1:63 (w/v). The flavonoid content obtained under optimal conditions showed 302.63 mg/g, which is 1.12 times higher than the prediction value.

Strength Prediction Equations for High Strength Concrete by Schmidt Hammer Test (슈미트 해머 시험에 의한 고강도 콘크리트의 강도 추정식)

  • Kwon, Young-Wung;Park, Song-Chul;Kim, Min-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.3 s.93
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    • pp.389-395
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    • 2006
  • For the assessment of exsiting concrete structures, it is important to get the real strength of concrete. The load test or core test has many problems due to cost time, easiness, structural damage, and reliability and so on. Thus, various non-destructive test and statistical analysis techniques for strength assessment have been developed. As a result the real strength of concrete can be obtained by both direct and indirect test. In this study, a series of experimental tests of core strength and Schmidt hammer tests on 3, 7, 14, 28, 90, 180, 365, and 730 days' were done for predicting the compressive strength of high strength concrete with 65.0MPa of 28-days' strength. Each experimental results was analyzed by simple regression analysis. Then, reliability level and error rate between the proposed equations and the existing ones was examined. However, the application of the exsisting equations was inadequate to high strength concrete, because they were conducted under normal strength concrete. Therefore, the following compressive strength equations were proposed for predicting the compressive strength of high strength concrete by Schmidt hammer test. The proposed equations by Schmidt hammer test are as follows.