• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.113-119
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• 2024

Existing reinforced concrete buildings with seismically deficient column details affect the overall behavior depending on the failure type of column. This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning-based prediction model for the column failure modes (shear, flexure-shear, and flexure failure modes). For this purpose, artificial neural network (ANN), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF) models were used, considering previously collected experimental data. Using four machine learning methodologies, we developed a classification learning model that can predict the column failure modes in terms of the input variables using concrete compressive strength, steel yield strength, axial load ratio, height-to-dept aspect ratio, longitudinal reinforcement ratio, and transverse reinforcement ratio. The performance of each machine learning model was compared and verified by calculating accuracy, precision, recall, F1-Score, and ROC. Based on the performance measurements of the classification model, the RF model represents the highest average value of the classification model performance measurements among the considered learning methods, and it can conservatively predict the shear failure mode. Thus, the RF model can rapidly predict the column failure modes with simple column details.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.8
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• pp.525-535
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• 2018

If the frequency of a particular class is excessively higher than the frequency of other classes in the classification problem, data imbalance problems occur, which make machine learning distorted. Corporate bankruptcy prediction often suffers from data imbalance problems since the ratio of insolvent companies is generally very low, whereas the ratio of solvent companies is very high. To mitigate these problems, it is required to apply a proper sampling technique. Until now, oversampling techniques which adjust the class distribution of a data set by sampling minor class with replacement have popularly been used. However, they are a risk of overfitting. Under this background, this study proposes ROSE(Random Over Sampling Examples) technique which is proposed by Menardi and Torelli in 2014 for the effective corporate bankruptcy prediction. The ROSE technique creates new learning samples by synthesizing the samples for learning, so it leads to better prediction accuracy of the classifiers while avoiding the risk of overfitting. Specifically, our study proposes to combine the ROSE method with SVM(support vector machine), which is known as the best binary classifier. We applied the proposed method to a real-world bankruptcy prediction case of a Korean major bank, and compared its performance with other sampling techniques. Experimental results showed that ROSE contributed to the improvement of the prediction accuracy of SVM in bankruptcy prediction compared to other techniques, with statistical significance. These results shed a light on the fact that ROSE can be a good alternative for resolving data imbalance problems of the prediction problems in social science area other than bankruptcy prediction.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.432-438
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• 2011

The purpose of the present thesis is to develop bankruptcy prediction models capable of being applied to the Korean construction industry and to deduce an optimal model through comparative evaluation of final developed models. A study population was selected as general contractors in the Korean construction industry. In order to ease the sample securing and reliability of data, it was limited to general contractors receiving external audit from the government. The study samples are divided into a bankrupt company group and a non-bankrupt company group. The bankruptcy, insolvency, declaration of insolvency, workout and corporate reorganization were used as selection criteria of a bankrupt company. A company that is not included in the selection criteria of the bankrupt company group was selected as a non-bankrupt company. Accordingly, the study sample is composed of a total of 112 samples and is composed of 48 bankrupt companies and 64 non-bankrupt companies. A financial ratio was used as early predictors for development of an estimation model. A total of 90 financial ratios were used and were divided into growth, profitability, productivity and added value. The MDA (Multivariate Discriminant Analysis) model and BLRA (Binary Logistic Regression Analysis) model were used for development of bankruptcy prediction models. The MDA model is an analysis method often used in the past bankruptcy prediction literature, and the BLRA is an analysis method capable of avoiding equal variance assumption. The stepwise (MDA) and forward stepwise method (BLRA) were used for selection of predictor variables in case of model construction. Twenty two variables were finally used in MDA and BLRA models according to timing of bankruptcy. The ROC-Curve Analysis and Classification Analysis were used for analysis of prediction performance of estimation models. The correct classification rate of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows: 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 83.04%, BLRA: 93.75%); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 77.68%, BLRA: 78.57%); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 84.82%, BLRA: 91.96%). The AUC (Area Under Curve) of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows. : 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.933, BLRA: 0.978); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.852, BLRA: 0.875); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.938, BLRA: 0.975). As a result of the present research, accuracy of the BLRA model is higher than the MDA model and its prediction performance is improved.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.745-760
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• 2021

Prediction of a stock price has been a subject of interest for a long time in financial markets, and thus, many studies have been conducted in various directions. As the efficient market hypothesis introduced in the 1970s acquired supports, it came to be the majority opinion that it was impossible to predict stock prices. However, recent advances in predictive models have led to new attempts to predict the future prices. Here, we summarize past studies on the price prediction by evaluation measures, and predict the direction of stock prices of Samsung Electronics, LG Chem, and NAVER by applying various machine learning models. In addition to widely used technical indicator variables, accounting indicators such as Price Earning Ratio and Price Book-value Ratio and outputs of the hidden Markov Model are used as predictors. From the results of our analysis, we conclude that no models show significantly better accuracy and it is not possible to predict the direction of stock prices with models used. Considering that the models with extra predictors show relatively high test accuracy, we may expect the possibility of a meaningful improvement in prediction accuracy if proper variables that reflect the opinions and sentiments of investors would be utilized.

• International Journal of Contents
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.75-82
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper was to identify suitable variables for financial distress prediction models and to compare the accuracy of MDA and LA for early warning signals for wind energy companies in Korea. The research methods, discriminant analysis and logit analysis have been widely used. The data set consisted of 15 wind energy SMEs in KOSDAQ with financial statements in 2012 from KIS-Value. We found that five financial ratio variables were statistically significant and the accuracy of MDA was 86%, while that of LA is 100%. The importance of this study is that it demonstrates empirically that financial distress prediction models are applicable to the wind energy industry in Korea as an early warning signs of impending bankruptcy.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.91-111
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• 1997

Neural Network(NN) is known to be suitable for forecasting corporate bankruptcy because of discriminant capability. Bandkruptcy prediction on NN by now has mostly been studied based on financial indices at specific point of time. However, the financial profile of corporates fluctuates within a certain range with the elapse of time. Besides, we need a lot of data of different bankrupt types in order to apply NN for better bankruptcy prediction. Therefore, We have decided to focus on textile and clothing industries for bankruptcy prediction with limited data. One part of the collected data was used for training and calibration, and the other was used for verification. The model makes a learning with extended data from financial indices at specific point of time. The trained model has been tested and we could get a high hitting ratio relatively.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.91-91
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• 1989

Neural Network(NN) is known to be suitable for forecasting corporate bankruptcy because of discriminant capability. Bandkruptcy prediction on NN by now has mostly been studied based on financial indices at specific point of time. However, the financial profile of corporates fluctuates within a certain range with the elapse of time. Besides, we need a lot of data of different bankrupt types in order to apply NN for better bankruptcy prediction. Therefore, We have decided to focus on textile and clothing industries for bankruptcy prediction with limited data. One part of the collected data was used for training and calibration, and the other was used for verification. The model makes a learning with extended data from financial indices at specific point of time. The trained model has been tested and we could get a high hitting ratio relatively.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.15 no.8
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• pp.116-125
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• 1998

In this paper, main target is to select parameters for prediction of tool wear and detection of tool fracture. The research about choosing parameter for prediction of tool wear is done by using force ratios. Also current sensor, tool-dynamometer, and accelerometer are used for researching detection method of tool fracture. Experiment is done using Taguchi's method in medium machining conditions. Parameter which is best for prediction of tool wear and detection of tool fracture by deviation analysis is selected. In this paper, tool wear means flank wear.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 1998.03a
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• pp.67-70
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• 1998

There were many cases to apply artificial intelligence to medicine. In this paper, we present the prediction model of the development of the NIDDM(noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus). It is not difficult that doctor diagnose patient as DM(diabetes mellitus). However NIDDM is usually developmented later on 40 years old and symptom appeares gradually. So screening test or prediction model is needed absolutely. Our model predicts development of NIDDM with still normal data 2 year ago. Prediction models developed are both MLP(multilayer perceptron) with backpropagation training and RBFN(radial basis function network). Performance of both models were evaluated with likelihood ratio. MLP was about two and RBFN was about three. We expect that models developed can prevent development of DM and utilize normal data.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.17-25
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• 2024

Hydraulic conductivity is a critical design parameter for buffers in high-level radioactive waste repositories. Most employed prediction models for hydraulic conductivity are limited to various types of bentonites, the main material of the buffer, and the associated temperature conditions. This study proposes the utilization of a novel integrated prediction model. The model is derived through theoretical and regression analyses and is applied to all types of compacted bentonites when the relationship between hydraulic conductivity and dry density for each compacted bentonite is known. The proposed model incorporates parameters such as permeability ratio, dynamic viscosity, and temperature coefficient to enable accurate prediction of hydraulic conductivity with temperature. Based on the results obtained, the values are in good agreement with the measured values for the selected bentonites, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed model. These results contribute to the analysis of the hydraulic behavior of the buffer with temperature during periods of high-level radioactive waste deposition.