• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Analysis

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Analyzing Machine Learning Techniques for Fault Prediction Using Web Applications

  • Malhotra, Ruchika;Sharma, Anjali
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.751-770
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    • 2018
  • Web applications are indispensable in the software industry and continuously evolve either meeting a newer criteria and/or including new functionalities. However, despite assuring quality via testing, what hinders a straightforward development is the presence of defects. Several factors contribute to defects and are often minimized at high expense in terms of man-hours. Thus, detection of fault proneness in early phases of software development is important. Therefore, a fault prediction model for identifying fault-prone classes in a web application is highly desired. In this work, we compare 14 machine learning techniques to analyse the relationship between object oriented metrics and fault prediction in web applications. The study is carried out using various releases of Apache Click and Apache Rave datasets. En-route to the predictive analysis, the input basis set for each release is first optimized using filter based correlation feature selection (CFS) method. It is found that the LCOM3, WMC, NPM and DAM metrics are the most significant predictors. The statistical analysis of these metrics also finds good conformity with the CFS evaluation and affirms the role of these metrics in the defect prediction of web applications. The overall predictive ability of different fault prediction models is first ranked using Friedman technique and then statistically compared using Nemenyi post-hoc analysis. The results not only upholds the predictive capability of machine learning models for faulty classes using web applications, but also finds that ensemble algorithms are most appropriate for defect prediction in Apache datasets. Further, we also derive a consensus between the metrics selected by the CFS technique and the statistical analysis of the datasets.

Energy Use Prediction Model in Digital Twin

  • Wang, Jihwan;Jin, Chengquan;Lee, Yeongchan;Lee, Sanghoon;Hyun, Changtaek
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.1256-1263
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    • 2022
  • With the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the amount of energy used in buildings has been increasing due to changes in the energy use structure caused by the massive spread of information-oriented equipment, climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. For the efficient use of energy, it is necessary to have a plan that can predict and reduce the amount of energy use according to the type of energy source and the use of buildings. To address such issues, this study presents a model embedded in a digital twin that predicts energy use in buildings. The digital twin is a system that can support a solution of urban problems through the process of simulations and analyses based on the data collected via sensors in real-time. To develop the energy use prediction model, energy-related data such as actual room use, power use and gas use were collected. Factors that significantly affect energy use were identified through a correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis based on the collected data. The proof-of-concept prototype was developed with an exhibition facility for performance evaluation and validation. The test results confirm that the error rate of the energy consumption prediction model decreases, and the prediction performance improves as the data is accumulated by comparing the error rates of the model. The energy use prediction model thus predicts future energy use and supports formulating a systematic energy management plan in consideration of characteristics of building spaces such as the purpose and the occupancy time of each room. It is suggested to collect and analyze data from other facilities in the future to develop a general-purpose energy use prediction model.

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Evaluation of Corporate Distress Prediction Power using the Discriminant Analysis: The Case of First-Class Hotels in Seoul (판별분석에 의한 기업부실예측력 평가: 서울지역 특1급 호텔 사례 분석)

  • Kim, Si-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.520-526
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to develop a distress prediction model, in order to evaluate the distress prediction power for first-class hotels and to calculate the average financial ratio in the Seoul area by using the financial ratios of hotels in 2015. The sample data was collected from 19 first-class hotels in Seoul and the financial ratios extracted from 14 of these 19 hotels. The results show firstly that the seven financial ratios, viz. the current ratio, total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, interest coverage ratio to operating income, operating income to sales, net income to stockholders' equity, ratio of cash flows from operating activities to sales and total assets turnover, enable the top-level corporations to be discriminated from the failed corporations and, secondly, by using these seven financial ratios, a discriminant function which classifies the corporations into top-level and failed ones is estimated by linear multiple discriminant analysis. The accuracy of prediction of this discriminant capability turned out to be 87.9%. The accuracy of the estimates obtained by discriminant analysis indicates that the distress prediction model's distress prediction power is 78.95%. According to the analysis results, hotel management groups which administrate low level corporations need to focus on the classification of these seven financial ratios. Furthermore, hotel corporations have very different financial structures and failure prediction indicators from other industries. In accordance with this finding, for the development of credit evaluation systems for such hotel corporations, there is a need for systems to be developed that reflect hotel corporations' financial features.

Neuro-Fuzzy Approaches to Ozone Prediction System (뉴로-퍼지 기법에 의한 오존농도 예측모델)

  • 김태헌;김성신;김인택;이종범;김신도;김용국
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.616-628
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we present the modeling of the ozone prediction system using Neuro-Fuzzy approaches. The mechanism of ozone concentration is highly complex, nonlinear, and nonstationary, the modeling of ozone prediction system has many problems and the results of prediction is not a good performance so far. The Dynamic Polynomial Neural Network(DPNN) which employs a typical algorithm of GMDH(Group Method of Data Handling) is a useful method for data analysis, identification of nonlinear complex system, and prediction of a dynamical system. The structure of the final model is compact and the computation speed to produce an output is faster than other modeling methods. In addition to DPNN, this paper also includes a Fuzzy Logic Method for modeling of ozone prediction system. The results of each modeling method and the performance of ozone prediction are presented. The proposed method shows that the prediction to the ozone concentration based upon Neuro-Fuzzy approaches gives us a good performance for ozone prediction in high and low ozone concentration with the ability of superior data approximation and self organization.

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An Exploratory Study for Decreasing Error of Prediction Value of Recommended System on User Based

  • Lee, Hee-Choon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2006
  • This study is to investigate the error of prediction value with related variables from the recommended system and to examine the error of prediction value with related variables. To decrease the error on the collaborative recommended system on user based, this research explored the effects on the prediction related response pair between raters' demographic variables and Pearson's coefficient and sparsity. The result shows comparative analysis between existing error of prediction value and conditioned one.

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Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Two-Compartment Model for the Indoor Radon Pollution (실내 라돈오염 해석을 위한 2구역 모델의 민감도 및 불확실성 분석)

  • 유동한;이한수;김상준;양지원
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.327-334
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    • 2002
  • The work presents sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of 2-compartment model for the evaluation of indoor radon pollution in a house. Effort on the development of such model is directed towards the prediction of the generation and transfer of radon in indoor air released from groundwater. The model is used to estimate a quantitative daily human exposure through inhalation of such radon based on exposure scenarios. However, prediction from the model has uncertainty propagated from uncertainties in model parameters. In order to assess how model predictions are affected by the uncertainties of model inputs, the study performs a quantitative uncertainty analysis in conjunction with the developed model. An importance analysis is performed to rank input parameters with respect to their contribution to model prediction based on the uncertainty analysis. The results obtained from this study would be used to the evaluation of human risk by inhalation associated with the indoor pollution by radon released from groundwater.

Improvement on Prediction of Circumferential-Groove-Pump Seal with CFD Analysis (CFD를 사용한 평행 홈 펌프 시일의 해석 개선)

  • Ha, Tae-Woong
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.291-296
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    • 2008
  • In order to improve the leakage prediction and rotordynamic analysis of an annular seal with a smooth rotor and circumferentially grooved stator, CFD analysis using FLUENT has been performed to determine the groove penetration angle a which is the angle of separation line between control volumes II and III in groove section of Ha and Lee's three-control-volume theory. Validation to the present analysis using new penetration angle determined by the CFD analysis is achieved by comparisons with the results of published Ha and Lee's analysis. For the leakage prediction the present analysis shows slight improvement and CFD results yields the best. Direct damping and cross-coupled stiffness coefficients are predicted better to the experimental ones. However, direct stiffness coefficient is predicted worse.

A multi-dimensional crime spatial pattern analysis and prediction model based on classification

  • Hajela, Gaurav;Chawla, Meenu;Rasool, Akhtar
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.272-287
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    • 2021
  • This article presents a multi-dimensional spatial pattern analysis of crime events in San Francisco. Our analysis includes the impact of spatial resolution on hotspot identification, temporal effects in crime spatial patterns, and relationships between various crime categories. In this work, crime prediction is viewed as a classification problem. When predictions for a particular category are made, a binary classification-based model is framed, and when all categories are considered for analysis, a multiclass model is formulated. The proposed crime-prediction model (HotBlock) utilizes spatiotemporal analysis for predicting crime in a fixed spatial region over a period of time. It is robust under variation of model parameters. HotBlock's results are compared with baseline real-world crime datasets. It is found that the proposed model outperforms the standard DeepCrime model in most cases.

Quantitative Analysis of GIS-based Landslide Prediction Models Using Prediction Rate Curve (예측비율곡선을 이용한 GIS 기반 산사태 예측 모델의 정량적 비교)

  • 지광훈;박노욱;박노욱
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.199-210
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to compare the landslide prediction models quantitatively using prediction rate curve. A case study from the Jangheung area was used to illustrate the methodologies. The landslide locations were detected from remote sensing data and field survey, and geospatial information related to landslide occurrences were built as a spatial database in GIS. As prediction models, joint conditional probability model and certainty factor model were applied. For cross-validation approach, landslide locations were partitioned into two groups randomly. One group was used to construct prediction models, and the other group was used to validate prediction results. From the cross-validation analysis, it is possible to compare two models to each other in this study area. It is expected that these approaches will be used effectively to compare other prediction models and to analyze the causal factors in prediction models.

Performance prediction and loss analysis of centrifugal compressors (원심 압축기의 성능 예측 및 손실 해석)

  • O, Hyeong-U;Yun, Ui-Su;Jeong, Myeong-Gyun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.804-812
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    • 1997
  • The present study has tested most of loss models previously published in the open literature and found an optimum set of empirical loss models for a reliable performance prediction of centrifugal compressors. In order to improve the prediction of efficiency curves, this paper recommends a modified parasitic loss model. Predicted performance curves by the proposed optimum set agree fairly well with experimental data for a variety of centrifugal compressors. The prediction method developed through this study can serve as a tool for preliminary design and assist the understanding of the operational characteristics of general purpose centrifugal compressors.