• 제목/요약/키워드: Predicted power

검색결과 1,302건 처리시간 0.031초

벼의 생육온도에 따른 출엽양상과 출엽속도 추정모델 (Temperature Response and Prediction Model of Leaf Appearance Rate in Rice)

  • 이충근;이변우;윤영환;신진철
    • 한국작물학회지
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    • 제46권3호
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    • pp.202-208
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구는 광안벼를 공시하여 동일한 일장 조건에서 온도에 따른 벼의 출엽 및 출수 반응을 검토하여 온도에 의한 출엽속도 추정모델을 설정하고자 하였던 바 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 1. 13시간의 동일한 일장에서 최종엽수는 15엽으로 온도에 따라 변하지 않았다. 2. 출엽속도는 저온에서 고온으로 갈수록 증가하였으며, 고온일수록 발육진전에 따른 출엽속도 감소정도가 컸다. 3. 온도변화에 따른 출엽속도는 15-27$^{\circ}C$의 범위에서는 온도가 높아짐에 따라 직선적으로 높아지는 1차 회귀 관계를 보였다. 임계온도는 발육진전에 따라 높아지는 경향을 보였다. 4. 임계온도를 1$0^{\circ}C$로 하였을 때 유효적산온도와 출엽과의 관계는 Logistic 함수에 의하여 가장 잘 표현되었다($R^2$=0.995). 하루당 출엽속도는 다음의 식으로 표현되었다. (equation omitted) 여기서 dL/dt는 출엽속도, T$_{i}$는 일평균기온, L은 엽수이고 a, b, c는 상수로 각각 41.8, 1098.38, -0.9273이다. 5. 위의 출엽속도 추정모델에 의해 추정된 값은 모델설정에 이용되지 않은 실제 조사 출엽속도와 가 0.99이상으로 추정 정확도가 매우 높았다.

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습식 분류상 가스화장치를 이용한 중질잔사유(Vacuum Residue)의 가스화 특성연구 (Experimental Study on the Characteristics of Vacuum Residue Gasification in an Entrained-flow Gasifier)

  • 최영찬;박태준;김재호;이재구;홍재창;김용구;나재익
    • 에너지공학
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2003
  • 우리나라 5개 정유사에서 일간 생산되는 중질잔사유 (Vacuum Residue)량은 약 200.000 B/d이며, 일부는 Asphalt 또는 Sulfur fuel oil, 기타 탈황공정(RHD) 등에서 upgrading 되고 있다. 중질잔사유는 유황 및 중금속 물질의 함유량이 높아 가스화를 통한 효율적인 이용이 요구되고 있으며, 최근들어 효율적인 중질잔사유의 사용을 위하여 SK정유와 LG Caltex에서 435~500 MWe IGCC 발전소 및 수소 제조공정을 위한 타당성 조사를 한 바 있다. 현재 한국에너지기술연구원에서는 습식분류상 가스화장치를 이용하여 중질잔사유가스화 특성에 관한 연구를 수행하고 있다. 실험은 반응온도: 1,100~1,25$0^{\circ}C$, 반응압력: 1~6 kg/$\textrm{cm}^2$G, oxygen/V.R ratio: 0.8~0.9 and steam/V.R ratio: 0.4~0.5를 유지하며 수행되었으며, 실험을 통해 합성가스(CO+H$_2$) 조성 : 85~93%, 생성가스 유량: 50~110 Nm$^3$/hr. 발열량: 2,300~3,000 k㎈/Nm$^3$, 탄소전환율: 65~92 및 냉가스효율: 60~70%를 얻을 수 있었다. 아울러, 평형모델을 이용하여 중질잔사유가스화 공정을 모형화하였으며 계산결과를 실험결과와 비교하여 모델의 타당성을 검토하였다.

순서형 프로빗모형에 의한 이륜차 사고심각도의 영향요인 분석 (Analysis of Factors influencing Severity of Motorcycle Accidents using Ordered Probit Model)

  • 최정우;금기정
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This study drew factors affecting motorcycle accidents in Seoul by severity using an ordered probit model and aimed to analyze and verify the drawn influence factors. METHODS : As the severity of the accidents could be classified into three types (fatal injury, serious injury and minor injury), this study drew the factors affecting accidents by a comparative analysis employing an ordered probit model, removed the variables that would not secure significance sequentially to construct a model with high explanatory power regarding the factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents, and calculated the marginal effect of each factor to understand the degree of each factor's impact on the severity. First, Model 1 put in all variables; Model 2 was constructed by removing the variables of the road surface conditions that could not meet the level of significance (p=0.608); Model 3 was constructed by removing gender variable (p=0.423); and Model 4 was constructed finally by removing age variable (p=0.320). RESULTS : As a result of an analysis, statistically significant variables were time of occurrence, type of accident, road alignment and motorcycle displacement, and it turned out that the impacts on the severity were in the following order: a road alignment of left downhill, the type of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents and a road alignment of a flatland on the left. The significance of the models was tested using the likelihood ratio, the level of significance and suitability statistics about them, and as a result of the test, the significance level and suitability of the constructed models were all excellent. In addition, the model accuracy indicating the accuracy of a predicted value compared to that of the value actually observed was 70.3% for minor injury; 70.1% for serious injury; and 68.6% for fatal injury, and the overall accuracy was 70.2%, which was very high. CONCLUSIONS : As a result of an analysis of motorcycle accidents in Seoul through the ordered probit model and the marginal effect, it turned out that their severity increased in nighttime accidents as compared to daytime ones and gradually increased in the order of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents, motorcycle-to-person ones and the ones involving motorcycle only. As a result of an analysis, the severity of accidents in road alignments of left downhill, left flatland and straight downhill increased as compared to those in a road alignment of straight flatland and that the severity of accidents of motorcycles with a displacement larger than 50cc was higher than that of those with a displacement smaller than 50cc.

Support Vector Machine 기법을 이용한 고객의 구매의도 예측 (Forecasting of Customer's Purchasing Intention Using Support Vector Machine)

  • 김진화;남기찬;이상종
    • 경영정보학연구
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.137-158
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    • 2008
  • 기업 경쟁력 강화의 중요한 이슈인 대량 개별화(mass-customization)의 실행을 위하여 통합 고객관계 관리 프로세스로서의 CRM(customer relationship management)에 대한 관심과 활용에 대한 필요성은 점점 더 높아지고 있다. 특히, 기존 고객들의 구매 정보를 기반으로 고객의 구매 패턴을 파악하고 의도를 예측하는 것은 오늘날 실질적인 판매 전략을 수립하는 마케팅 분야에서 상당히 큰 비중을 차지하고 있다. 고객의 구매의도 예측에는 대량의 데이터로부터 과거에 인지하지 못했던 의미 있고, 근거 있는 정보를 추출하는 데이터마이닝(datamining)이 주로 사용되고 있다. 기존의 구매의도 예측에 사용된 데이터마이닝 기법들은 주로 신경망(neural networks)과 로지스틱 회귀분석(logistic regression analysis)이었는데, 예측 정확성 및 모형 구축의 어려움으로 인한 다양한 문제점들이 제기되고 있는 실정이다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 기존의 기법들이 가지고 있는 단점들을 개선하기 위하여 신경망과 로지스틱 회귀분석 외에 연관규칙(association rule), 연관성 매트릭스(association matrix), 의사결정 나무(decision tree), 베이지안 망(bayesian network), SVM(support vector machine) 기법들을 추가로 제안하였다. 본 연구의 목적은 고객의 특정 상품에 대한 구매의도 예측을 위하여 새로운 알고리즘을 제시하기보다는 기존의 다양한 데이터마이닝 기법들을 적용시켜 봄으로써, 가장 우수한 예측성과를 나타내는 기법을 발견하는 것이다. 연구에 사용된 자료는 기존의 연구에서는 적용되지 않았던 편의점의 영수증 데이터이다. 예측 목표상품은 카테고리화 된 '우유'와 '냉동식품'이며, 제안된 기법들의 신뢰성을 위하여 전체 데이터를 10개의 training과 test 셋으로 중복되지 않게 구분함과 동시에 10번의 교차 검증(cross validation)을 실시하였다. 실험 결과 SVM이 영수증 데이터를 이용한 고객의 특정 상품에 대한 구매의도 예측에서 가장 우수한 성과를 나타내는 것을 확인하였다.

다양한 크기와 주파수 그리고 감쇠를 갖는 상하방향 전신 충격진동에 대한 불편함 연구 (Study on Discomfort of Vertical Whole-body Shock Vibration Having Various Magnitudes, Frequencies and Damping)

  • 안세진;;유완석;정의봉
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.50-57
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    • 2007
  • Shocks are excited by impulsive forces and cause discomfort in vehicles. Current standards define means of evaluating shocks and predicting their discomfort, but the methods are based on research with a restricted range of shocks. This experimental study was designed to investigate the discomfort of seated subjects exposed to a wide range of vertical shocks. Shocks were produced from the responses of one degree-of-freedom models, with 16 natural frequencies (from 0.5 to 16 Hz) and four damping ratios (0.05 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4), to a hanning-windowed half-sine force inputs. Each type of shock was presented at five vibration dose values in the range $0.35\;ms^{-1.75}$ to $2.89\;ms^{-1.75}$. Fifteen subjects used magnitude estimation method to judge the discomfort of all shocks. The exponent in Stevens' power law, indicating the rate of growth in discomfort with shock magnitude, decreased with increasing fundamental frequency of the shocks. At all magnitudes, the equivalent comfort contours showed greatest sensitivity to shocks having fundamental frequencies in the range 4 to 12.5 Hz. At low magnitudes the variations in discomfort with the shock fundamental frequency were similar to the frequency weighting $W_b$ in BS 6841, but low frequency high magnitudes shocks produced greater discomfort than predicted by this weighting. At some frequencies, for the same unweighted vibration dose value, there were small but significant differences in discomfort caused by shocks having different damping ratios. The rate of increase in discomfort with increasing shock magnitude depends on the fundamental frequency of the shock. In consequence, the frequency-dependence of discomfort produced by vertical shocks depends on shock magnitude. For shocks of low and moderate discomfort, the current methods seem reasonable, but the response to higher magnitude shocks needs further investigation.

평면식 태양열 집열기의 성능에 관한 연구 (Study on the Performance of the Flat-Plate Solar Collectors)

  • 장규섭;김만수
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 1977
  • Solar energy is a potential source of power that offers much promise being used for low-temperature applications like drying farm crops, space heating, and water heating for domestic uses. Already much of it are being used for those purpose in foreign countries. However, very little research has been done to determine the possibility of using the solar energy in Korea. This study was conducted to develop the general prediction equation of the total radiation on a horizontal surface in Daejeon area based on 5 years 91972, Jun.1-1976. Dec.31) meteorological data (bright sunshine hours, average total horizontal radiation), and to obtain experimentally the thermal efficiency of solar air and water collectors, which will be used as a basic data of designing flat-plate solar collector system.In addition to the thermal efficiency of the collectorsthe relationship among those factors affecting it such as weather condition, orientation factor, and tilted angle of collector was analyzed. The results of this study were as follows. 1. The general predicted equation of the total radiation on a horizontal surface in Daejeon area based on bright sunshine hours was developed as $H_{av} =(1.546\frac{n}{N}-0.582)H_o$. Predicting the total radiation on a horizontal surface by the above equation was thought to be possible because to values of 0.882 was smaller than any t values at above 0.05 level on the basis of two tailed test of the difference between the calculated and the recorded values. 2.It was observed that optimum tilt angle of the collector in the summer and the autumn drying season was 13 degrees and 51 degrees respectively, these values could be obtained by adding or substracting approximately 25 degrees from the latitude of this area $(36.3^{\circ}N)$ .The relationship between orientation factor and declination of sun at suitable tilt angle of 33 degrees $(s=0.9\O)$ was shown at Fig.4. 3.The thermal efficiency of solar wdter collector was shown 13.4-51. 6% on Aug. 15 (the minimum radiation recorded) and 43.8 ~537% Aug.20 (the maximum radiation recorded), and 13.8~ 46.6 and 44.3~ 49.7 were shown on each corresponding day. 4.The thermal efficiency of the collectors according to the weather condition was shown a big difference of about 10% between the day of the maximum radiation recorded and the minimum, but the differen of efficiency between the air and the water collector was at most 2 ~ 3%. 5. Even if the efficiency of the solar water collector was a little higher than the solar air collector, for drying farm products, the solar air collector was thought to be more effective because the air heated by collector could be directly used for drying them.

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로이유리의 전도성 금속박막을 이용한 발열유리 제작에 관한 연구 (A study on the fabrication of heatable glass using conductive metal thin film on Low-e glass)

  • 오재곤
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2018
  • 본 논문은 로이유리(Low emissivity glass) 표면에 증착되어 있는 금속박막의 전도 특성을 이용하여 발열유리(Heatable glass)를 제작하는 방법에 대해 제안한다. 로이유리의 발열량은 로이유리 표면저항에 의한 주울(Joule) 열에 의존하므로 소재의 표면저항을 측정함으로써 예측 및 설계가 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 저방사층이 11nm인 소프트로이유리 시료에 각 50mm 간격으로 은(Ag) 전극을 형성시키고, 4단자법으로 면저항을 측정하여 로이유리의 소비전력과 발열량을 예측한 후에, 제작 및 실험을 통해 발열성능을 확인하였다. 기존의 발열유리 제작방법은 크게 두 가지로 일반유리(Normal glass)에 니크롬(Nichrome) 열선을 삽입하는 방법과, 일반유리에 전도성 투명박막을 증착하는 방법이 있다. 니크롬 열선 삽입 방식은 발열성능은 우수하나 유리 고유의 투명성을 저해하고, 전도성 투명박막을 증착하는 방법은 투명성은 양호하나 공정이 복잡하여 실용성이 저하된다. 본 논문에서는 주로 건축물의 단열효과 향상을 위해 사용되는 로이유리를 이용하여 로이유리 전면에 코팅되어 있는 전도성 금속박막에 레이저 빔을 조사하여 원하는 발열성능을 가지는 발열유리를 제작하는 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 방법은 기존의 니크롬 열선을 삽입하는 방법에 비해 투명성이 양호하고, 전도성 투명박막을 증착하는 방법에 비해 제작과정이 보다 수월함을 확인하였다. 아울러, 레이저를 조사하여 로이유리의 표면 박막을 패터닝(Patterning) 하는 형태에 따른 발열특성의 비교와 로이유리에 적합한 레이저 출력조건을 제시하고자 한다.

Success of a Cervical Cancer Screening Program: Trends in Incidence in Songkhla, Southern Thailand, 1989-2010, and Prediction of Future Incidences to 2030

  • Sriplung, Hutcha;Singkham, Phathai;Iamsirithaworn, Sopon;Jiraphongsa, Chuleeporn;Bilheem, Surichai
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권22호
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    • pp.10003-10008
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    • 2014
  • Background: Cervical cancer has been a leading female cancer in Thailand for decades, and has been second to breast cancer after 2007. The Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) has provided opportunistic screening with Pap smears for more than 30 years. In 2002, the MoPH and the National Health Security Office provided countrywide systematic screening of cervical cancer to all Thai women aged 35-60 years under universal health care coverage insurance scheme at 5-year intervals. Objectives: This study characterized the cervical cancer incidence trends in Songkhla in southern Thailand using joinpoint and age period cohort (APC) analysis to observe the effect of cervical cancer screening activities in the past decades, and to project cervical cancer rates in the province, to 2030. Materials and Methods: Invasive and in situ cervical cancer cases were extracted from the Songkhla Cancer Registry from 1990 through 2010. Age standardized incidence rates were estimated. Trends in incidences were evaluated by joinpoint and APC regression models. The Norpred package was modified for R and was used to project the future trends to 2030 using the power of 5 function and cut trend method. Results: Cervical cancer incidence in Songkhla peaked around 1998-2000 and then dropped by -4.7% per year. APC analysis demonstrated that in situ tumors caused an increase in incidence in early ages, younger cohorts, and in later years of diagnosis. Conclusions: Both joinpoint and APC analysis give the same conclusion in continuation of a declining trend of cervical cancer to 2030 but with different rates and the predicted goal of ASR below 10 or even 5 per 100,000 women by 2030 would be achieved. Thus, maintenance and improvement of the screening program should be continued. Other population based cancer registries in Thailand should analyze their data to confirm the success of cervical cancer screening policy of Thailand.

Sperm-Associated Antigen 9 is a Promising marker for Early Diagnosis of Endometrial Cancer

  • Baser, Eralp;Togrul, Cihan;Ozgu, Emre;Ayhan, Sevgi;Caglar, Mete;Erkaya, Salim;Gungor, Tayfun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권12호
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    • pp.7635-7638
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    • 2013
  • Background: Sperm-associated antigen 9 (SPAG9) has been recently proposed as a novel biomarker for early diagnosis of several human tumors, including ovarian, cervical and breast cancers. Its clinical value remains to be clarified for endometrial cancer (EC). In this study, we investigated the utility of serum SPAG9 levels in diagnosis of EC and its association with important clinicopathological parameters. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed at a tertiary women's referral center in Ankara, Turkey. Preoperative serum samples were collected from patients surgically treated for endometrial cancer between June 2012-April 2013. Similar aged women with a biopsy proven benign endometrium were used as controls. Serum SPAG9 levels were measured with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method and assessed for links with clinicopathological factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess power of SPAG9 levels for EC prediction. P values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 63 women with EC and 27 with benign endometrium were included in the study. Mean age in the EC group was $58.7{\pm}1.1$. Median SPAG9 levels in the EC and control groups were 18.3 (range, 12.7-53.8) and 14.1 (range, 4.3-65.3), respectively (p<0.001). A cut-off value of 17 ng/ml for SPAG9 predicted presence of malignant endometrium with 74% sensitivity and 83% specificity [Area under curve (AUC)=0.82, p<0.001]. SPAG9 levels did not demonstrate any significant association with histological type, FIGO stage, tumor grade, size, myometrial invasion, lymphovascular space invasion, cervical involvement, adnexal involvement, peritoneal cytology or lymph node status (all p>0.05). Conclusions: Testing for SPAG9 may be useful for early detection of EC in asymptomatic high-risk women. Its role in post-treatment follow-up and early detection of recurrence should be assessed in future trials.

광센서를 이용한 제상제어 방법에 대한 타당성 검토 (Feasibility Study on a Defrost Control Method by Using a Photoelectric Sensors)

  • 전창덕;김동선;이승준
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.3389-3395
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    • 2014
  • 제상제어 수단으로 사용하고 있는 일정 시간 제어방식, 온도차 제어방식 등은 종종 제상 오작동과 에너지 낭비를 가져오므로 좀 더 정확하게 제상을 제어할 수 있는 방법이 요구되고 있다. 수광부와 발광부로 구성된 광센서를 실외 열교환기 전방에 설치하여 서리의 유무에 따른 출력전압의 변화를 관찰함으로서 정확하게 제상제어를 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 일정시간 제상 방법을 사용하는 경우 나타나는 시스템 성능 및 특성 곡선을 광센서를 사용하여 재현가능한지 판단하기 위해 KS C 9306에 따른 난방 제상능력 시험조건(건구온도 $2^{\circ}C$/습구온도 $1^{\circ}C$)에서 실험을 수행하였다. 실험을 통해 측정한 난방능력, 소비전력, 열교환기 표면온도와 광센서 수광부 출력전압을 비교, 분석한 결과 제상 제어수단으로 광센서의 사용가능성을 확인하였다. 일정시간 제상방법을 통해 구한 제상 제어 단속 주기는 광센서를 통해 측정한 출력 전압의 단속 주기와 잘 일치하였다.