• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.14-22
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• 2021

A plan for the development of reliability-based ROK amphibious assault vehicles is proposed. By analyzing the development case of the U.S. EFV, considerations for the successful development of the next-generation Korea Forces amphibious assault vehicle are presented. If the vehicle reliability can be improved to the level of the fourth highest priority electric unit for power units, suspensions, decelerators, and body groups, which have the highest priority among fault frequency items, a system level MTBF of 36.4%↑ can be achieved, and the operational availability can be increased by 3.5%↑. The next-generation amphibious assault vehicles must fulfill certain operating and performance requirements, the underlying systems must be built, and sequencing of the hybrid engine and the modular concept should be considered. Along with big-data- and machine-learning-based failure prediction, machine maintenance based on augmented reality/virtual reality and remote maintenance should be used to improve the ability to maintain combat readiness and reduce lifecycle costs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.105-117
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• 2022

This study tested SVM(support vector machine), RF(random forest), and ANN(artificial neural network) machine-learning models that can predict net irrigation water requirements in paddy fields. For the Jeonju and Jeongeup meteorological stations, the net irrigation water requirement was calculated using K-HAS from 1981 to 2021 and set as the label. For each algorithm, twelve models were constructed based on cumulative precipitation, precipitation, crop evapotranspiration, and month. Compared to the CE model, the R² of the CEP model was higher, and MAE, RMSE, and MSE were lower. Comprehensively considering learning performance and learning time, it is judged that the RF algorithm has the best usability and predictive power of five-days is better than three-days. The results of this study are expected to provide the scientific information necessary for the decision-making of on-site water managers is expected to be possible through the connection with weather forecast data. In the future, if the actual amount of irrigation and supply are measured, it is necessary to develop a learning model that reflects this.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.65-76
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• 2015

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the multi-lateral 'cap and trade' system endorsed by the Kyoto Protocol. CDM allows developed (Annex I) countries to buy CER credits from New and Renewable (NE) projects of non-Annex countries, to meet their carbon reduction requirements. This in effect subsidizes and promotes NE projects in developing countries, ultimately reducing global greenhouse gases (GHG). To be registered as a CDM project, the project must prove 'additionality,' which depends on numerous factors including the adopted technology, baseline methodology, emission reductions, and the project's internal rate of return. This makes it difficult to determine ex ante a project's acceptance as a CDM approved project, and entails sunk costs and even project cancellation to its project stakeholders. Focusing on hydro power projects and employing UNFCCC public data, this research developed a prediction model using logistic regression and CART to determine the likelihood of approval as a CDM project. The AUC for the logistic regression and CART model was 0.7674 and 0.7231 respectively, which proves the model's prediction accuracy. More importantly, results indicate that the emission reduction amount, MW per hour, investment/Emission as crucial variables, whereas the baseline methodology and technology types were insignificant. This demonstrates that at least for hydro power projects, the specific technology is not as important as the amount of emission reductions and relatively small scale projects and investment to carbon reduction ratios.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.527-532
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• 2007

In this paper, we suggest those two design plans for power supply method of Hot Standby Sparing System; one is the plan using MTBF based on Constant Failure Rate, and the plan using Reliability Function is the other. Traditionally, RBD (Reliability Block Diagram) is used for reliability prediction which is required to meet any requirements before system operation. However, the system that has redundancy, such as Hot Standby Sparing System, Is not suitable for system reliability modeling using combination model, such as RBD. In this paper, therefore, we demonstrate that for redundancy controller, redundancy modeling design toward fault occurrence design is more effective to build up a system with higher reliability and achieve the effectiveness of loss cost due to maintenance and failure occurred in operation, rather than combinational modeling design.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.95-105
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• 2022

The Army, Navy, and Air Force are making various efforts to develop a weapon system that incorporates the 4th industrial revolution technology so that it can be used in multi-domain operations. In order to effectively demonstrate the integrated combat power through the weapon system to which the new technology is applied, it is necessary to establish a network environment in which each weapon system can transmit and receive information smoothly. For this, it is essential to analyze the Information Exchange Requirement(IER) of each weapon system, but many IER analysis studies did not sufficiently reflect the various considerations of the actual tactical network. Therefore, this study closely analyzes the research methods and results of the existing information exchange requirements analysis studies. In IER analysis, the size of the message itself, the size of the network protocol header, the transmission/reception structure of the tactical network, the information distribution process, and the message occurrence frequency. In order to be able to use it for future IER prediction, we present a technique for calculating the information exchange requirement as a probability distribution using the Poisson distribution and the probability generating function. In order to prove the validity of this technique, the results of the probability distribution calculation using the message list and network topology samples are compared with the simulation results using Network Simulator 2.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.105-129
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• 2020

This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.