• Title/Summary/Keyword: Power Estimation Model

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Analysis of Cost Estimate Method Based on Engineering 3D Model for Nuclear Power Plant Construction Project (엔지니어링 3D모델 기반 원전 건설사업비 산정방안 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.294-295
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    • 2018
  • Nowadays, the construction industry utilizes 3D models in the designing process, on which research is being conducted to establish an automated system for project cost estimation in connection with information related to construction such as material unit costs and wages, beyond the level of design interference review and construction quantity estimation. In this process, the project cost is estimated in connection with unit price data after takeoff the quantity based on the 3D model attributes and data types. A way to reduce cost and risk would be first developing prototypes of some of essential buildings and works, comparing and validating the outcomes, and then extending to the whole scope, because estimates differ on the basis of the scope and level of 3D design models as well as the data accuracy. This study analyzes case studies of project cost estimation by computing the quantity on the basis of 3D model in the construction industry and explores methodologies and management measures applicable for estimating nuclear power plant construction project costs.

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An interactive multiple model method to identify the in-vessel phenomenon of a nuclear plant during a severe accident from the outer wall temperature of the reactor vessel

  • Khambampati, Anil Kumar;Kim, Kyung Youn;Hur, Seop;Kim, Sung Joong;Kim, Jung Taek
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.532-548
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    • 2021
  • Nuclear power plants contain several monitoring systems that can identify the in-vessel phenomena of a severe accident (SA). Though a lot of analysis and research is carried out on SA, right from the development of the nuclear industry, not all the possible circumstances are taken into consideration. Therefore, to improve the efficacy of the safety of nuclear power plants, additional analytical studies are needed that can directly monitor severe accident phenomena. This paper presents an interacting multiple model (IMM) based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) approach for the identification of in-vessel phenomena to provide the accident propagation information using reactor vessel (RV) out-wall temperature distribution during severe accidents in a nuclear power plant. The estimation of wall temperature is treated as a state estimation problem where the time-varying wall temperature is estimated using IMM employing three multiple models for temperature evolution. From the estimated RV out-wall temperature and rate of temperature, the in-vessel phenomena are identified such as core meltdown, corium relocation, reactor vessel damage, reflooding, etc. We tested the proposed method with five different types of SA scenarios and the results show that the proposed method has estimated the outer wall temperature with good accuracy.

Minimum Hellinger Distance Estimation and Minimum Density Power Divergence Estimation in Estimating Mixture Proportions

  • Pak, Ro-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1159-1165
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    • 2005
  • Basu et al. (1998) proposed a new density-based estimator, called the minimum density power divergence estimator (MDPDE), which avoid the use of nonparametric density estimation and associated complication such as bandwidth selection. Woodward et al. (1995) examined the minimum Hellinger distance estimator (MHDE), proposed by Beran (1977), in the case of estimation of the mixture proportion in the mixture of two normals. In this article, we introduce the MDPDE for a mixture proportion, and show that both the MDPDE and the MHDE have the same asymptotic distribution at a model. Simulation study identifies some cases where the MHDE is consistently better than the MDPDE in terms of bias.

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BAYESIAN APPROACH TO MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE USING THE MODULATED POWER LAW PROCESS

  • Na, Myung-Hwa;Kim, Moon-Ju;Ma, Lin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2006
  • The Renewal process and the Non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) process are probably the most popular models for describing the failure pattern of repairable systems. But both these models are based on too restrictive assumptions on the effect of the repair action. For these reasons, several authors have recently proposed point process models which incorporate both renewal type behavior and time trend. One of these models is the Modulated Power Law Process (MPLP). The Modulated Power Law Process is a suitable model for describing the failure pattern of repairable systems when both renewal-type behavior and time trend are present. In this paper we propose Bayes estimation of the next failure time after the system has experienced some failures, that is, Mean Time Between Failure for the MPLP model. Numerical examples illustrate the estimation procedure.

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A NOVEL WEIBULL MARSHALL-OLKIN POWER LOMAX DISTRIBUTION: PROPERTIES AND APPLICATIONS TO MEDICINE AND ENGINEERING

  • ELHAM MORADI;ZAHRA SHOKOOH GHAZANI
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.1275-1301
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    • 2023
  • This paper introduced the Weibull Marshall-Olkin Power Lomax (WMOPL) distribution. The statistical aspects of the proposed model are presented, such as the quantiles function, moments, mean residual life and mean deviations, variance, skewness, kurtosis, and reliability measures like the residual life function, and stress-strength reliability. The parameters of the new model are estimated using six different methods, and simulation research is illustrated to compare the six estimation methods. In the end, two real data sets show that the Weibull Marshall-Olkin Power Lomax distribution is flexible and suitable for modeling data.

Sensitivity Measurement of Self-Tunig Controller to Modelling Errors (Power Spectrun Approach) (모델 오차에 대한 자기 동조 제어기의 민감도 측정)

  • 나종래;변증남
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1987.10b
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    • pp.174-178
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    • 1987
  • In the design of reference model based STC (self-tuning controllers), parameters of the controllers are determined not from the true plant but from the estimated model. In this paper, we suggest a power spectrum estimation method for visualling the sensitivity of the closed loop system without knowing the explicit original plant.

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Parameter estimation of the Diffusion Model for Demand Side Management Monitoring System (DSM Monitoring을 위한 확산 모델의 계수 추정)

  • Choi, Cheong-Hun;Jeong, Hyun-Su;Kim, Jin-O
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1998.07c
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    • pp.1073-1075
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents the method of parameter estimation of diffusion model for monitoring Demand-Side Management Program. Bass diffusion model was applied in this paper, which has different values according to parameters ; coefficients of innovation, imitation and potential adopters. Though it is very important to estimate three parameter, there are no empirical results in practice. Thus, this paper presents the method of parameter estimation in case of few data with constraints to reduce the possibility of bad estimation. The constraints are empirical results or expert's decision. Case studies show the diffusion curves of high-efficient lighting and also forecasting of the peak value for power demand considering diffusion of high-efficient lighting, the feedback and least-square parameter estimation method used in this paper enable us to evaluate the status and forecasting of the effect of DSM program.

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Development of Statistical Model and Neural Network Model for Tensile Strength Estimation in Laser Material Processing of Aluminum Alloy (알루미늄 합금의 레이저 가공에서 인장 강도 예측을 위한 회귀 모델 및 신경망 모델의 개발)

  • Park, Young-Whan;Rhee, Se-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4 s.193
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2007
  • Aluminum alloy which is one of the light materials has been tried to apply to light weight vehicle body. In order to do that, welding technology is very important. In case of the aluminum laser welding, the strength of welded part is reduced due to porosity, underfill, and magnesium loss. To overcome these problems, laser welding of aluminum with filler wire was suggested. In this study, experiment about laser welding of AA5182 aluminum alloy with AA5356 filler wire was performed according to process parameters such as laser power, welding speed and wire feed rate. The tensile strength was measured to find the weldability of laser welding with filler wire. The models to estimate tensile strength were suggested using three regression models and one neural network model. For regression models, one was the multiple linear regression model, another was the second order polynomial regression model, and the other was the multiple nonlinear regression model. Neural network model with 2 hidden layers which had 5 and 3 nodes respectively was investigated to find the most suitable model for the system. Estimation performance was evaluated for each model using the average error rate. Among the three regression models, the second order polynomial regression model had the best estimation performance. For all models, neural network model has the best estimation performance.

Kalman Filter Estimation of the Servo Valve Effective Orifice Area for a Auxiliary Power Unit (보조 동력장치용 서보밸브 유효 오리피스 면적의 칼만필터 추정)

  • Zhang, J.F.;Kim, C.T.;Jeong, H.S.
    • Transactions of The Korea Fluid Power Systems Society
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2007
  • Flow rate is one of the important variables for precise motion control and detection of the faults and fluid loss in many hydraulic components and systems. But in many cases, it is not easy to measure it directly. The orifice area of a servo valve by which the fluid flows is one of key factors to monitor the flow rate. In this paper, we have constructed an estimation algorithm for the effective orifice area by using the model of a servo valve cylinder control system and Kalman filter algorithm. Without geometry information about the servo valve, it is shown that the effective orifice area can be estimated by using only displacement and pressure data corrupted with noise. And the effect of the biased sensor data and system parameter errors on the estimation results are discussed. The paper reveals that sensor calibration is important in accurate estimation and plausible parameter data such as oil bulk modulus and actuator volume are acceptable for the estimation without any error. The estimation algorithm can be used as an useful tool for detecting leakage, monitoring malfunction and/or degradation of the system performance.

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Input Voltage Sensorless Control for 3 Phase Vienna Rectifier (3상 비엔나 정류기 입력 전압 센서리스 제어)

  • Lee, Sang-Ri;Kim, Hag-Wone;Cho, Kwan-Yuhl;Hwang, Soon-Sang;Yoon, Byung-Chul
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, a new grid voltage estimation algorithm without voltage sensors is proposed for the three-phase vienna rectifier. Generally, input voltage sensor circuits increase size and cost of the PWM rectifier In order to reduce the cost and size and in order to increase reliability from the electrical noise, grid voltage estimation scheme without input voltage sensor is highly required. In this paper, the grid voltage estimation algorithm is proposed by a simple MRAS(Model Reference Adaptive System) observer without input voltage sensors. The validity of the proposed method is proven by simulation and experiment on the three-phase vienna rectifier system.