• 농촌계획
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.97-110
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• 2009

The objective of this research was to develop a rural settlement demand model to analyze the determinants of settlement demand of urban residents. The point aimed at from model development was deriving stated preference of potential consumers towards rural settlement through setting a hypothetical market, and using settlement subsidy as a surrogate variable for price in the demand model. The adequate demand model deducted from hypothetical market data was derived from the basis of Hanemann's utility difference theory. In the rural settlement demand model, willingness to accept was expressed by a function of settlement subsidy. Data utilized in the analysis was collected from surveys of households nationwide. According to inferred results of the demand model, settlement subsidy had a significant influence on increasing demand for rural settlement. A significant common element was found among variables affecting demand increase through demand curve shift. The majority group of those with high rural settlement demand sought agricultural activity as their main motive, due to harsh urban environments aggravated by unstable job market conditions. Subsequently, restriction of income opportunities in rural areas does not produce an entrance barrier for potential rural settlers. Moreover, this argument could be supported by the common trend of those with high rural settlement demand generally tending to have low incomes. Due to such characteristics of concerned groups of rural settlement demand, they tended to react susceptibly to the subsidy provided by the government and local autonomous entities.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.34-40
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• 2014

Since the global economic crisis in year 2008, the world civil helicopter market has been growing recently. According to the market outlook in the next decade, the demand of civil helicopter will be driven by the demand of Private & Corporate, Oil & Gas, Off-shore and EMS(Emergency Medical Service) usages. On the other side, the demand of military market will be driven by the modification and upgrading for life extension or performance enhancement than the new helicopter development for replacing old models. To summarize these situations, the demand of MRO(Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul) market has also been on the rise because of the demand due to above several usages in civil side and the life-extension in military side. Through the MRO market analysis for characteristics, developmental trends and a supply chain, this paper describes that the potential of MRO business is considerably large as a propulsive power of domestic helicopter industry. And also, it proposes the construction direction of MRO network because the domestic industry must make the developmental awareness and reliability a stepping-stone towards own helicopter.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.349-371
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• 2022

Purpose: Compared to the rapid growth rate of the domestic automotive LED industry so far, the predictive analysis method for demand forecasting or market outlook was insufficient. Accordingly, product characteristics are analyzed through the life trend of LEDs for automotive exterior lamps and the relative strengths of p and q using the Bass model. Also, future demands are predicted. Methods: We used sales data of a leading company in domestic market of automotive LEDs. Considering the autocorrelation error term of this data, parameters m, p, and q were estimated through the modified estimation method of OLS and the NLS(Nonlinear Least Squares) method, and the optimal method was selected by comparing prediction error performance such as RMSE. Future annual demands and cumulative demands were predicted through the growth curve obtained from Bass-NLS model. In addition, various nonlinear growth curve models were applied to the data to compare the Bass-NLS model with potential market demand, and an optimal model was derived. Results: From the analysis, the parameter estimation results by Bass-NLS obtained m=1338.13, p=0.0026, q=0.3003. If the current trend continues, domestic automotive LED market is predicted to reach its maximum peak in 2021 and the maximum demand is $102.23M. Potential market demand was $1338.13M. In the nonlinear growth curve model analysis, the Gompertz model was selected as the optimal model, and the potential market size was $2864.018M. Conclusion: It is expected that the Bass-NLS method will be applied to LED sales data for automotive to find out the characteristics of the relative strength of q/p of products and to be used to predict current demand and future cumulative demand.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.176-180
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• 2001

In Korea, the mobile telecommunication service market is expanding rapidly and becoming more competitive. For service providers in such a dynamic environment, it is very important to accurately forecast demand including market potential in order to work out marketing strategies. In this paper, we suggest a general approach to forecast the market potential using a multinomial logit model, which is applied to individual-level market survey data. Then we develop a dynamic market potential model that can adapt to changes in the external environment without requiring further market survey. The proposed model is applied to the mobile telecommunication service market in Korea.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.90-97
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• 2006

Hydrogen is used as a chemical feedstock in several important industrial processes, including oil refineries and petro-chemical production. But, nowadays hydrogen is focused as energy carrier on the rising of problems such as exhaustion of fossil fuel and environmental pollution. Thermochemical hydrogen production by nuclear energy has potential to efficiently produce large quantities of hydrogen without producing greenhouse gases, and research of nuclear hydrogen, therefore, has been worked with goal to demonstrate commercial production in 2020. The oil refineries and petro-chemical plant are very large, centralized producers and users of industrial hydrogen, and high-potential early market for hydrogen produced by nuclear energy. Therefore, it is essential to investigate and analyze for state of domestic hydrogen market focused on industrial users. Hydrogen market of petro-chemical industry as demand site was investigated and worked for demand forecast of hydrogen in 2020. Also we suggested possible supply plans of nuclear hydrogen considered regional characteristics and then it can be provided basis for determination of optimal capacity of nuclear hydrogen plant in 2020.

• 경영과학
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.65-75
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• 2016

We study limit pricing in a price-based duopoly market under asymmetric information on the demand state. An incumbent, who is a monopolist in the initial period, has complete information on the size of a market, while a potential entrant only knows it partially. After observing the sales price of the incumbent in the first period, the entrant decides whether to enter a duopoly market and the sales price if she chooses to. We present a separating perfect Bayesian equilibrium, which indicates that limit pricing can deter the entry of a potential entrant under price competition when there is information asymmetry about the demand state.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1708-1727
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• 2009

Even though we usually analyze logistic market based on confined railway logistics, but this study would like to judge what is potential demand transferable to railway goods through accurate analysis of railway sharing rates by the analysis of origin and destination of each item in total freight transportation market. Accordingly, by analyzing each items transferable to railway, excluding items stuck to original market, this study wants to choose some major items which are expected to lasting demand and activate railway logistics plan by focusing on major items for marketing strategy.

• 산업공학
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.103-110
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• 2003

Growth curves are widely used in forecasting the market demand. When there are only a few data points available, the estimated model parameters have a low confidence. In this case, if some expert opinions are available, it would be better for predicting future demand to adjust the model parameters using these information. This paper proposes the methodology for re-estimation of model parameters in growth curves when adjusting market potential and/or time of maximum sales. We also provide the detailed procedures for five growth curves including Bass, Logistic, Gompertz, Weibull and Cumulative Lognormal models. Applications to real data are also included.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제14권spc호
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• pp.1232-1255
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 신제품 확산 모델 활용에 있어서 보다 적은 노력이 필요하지만 객관적이고 신속한 활용을 가능하게 만들어줄 모형을 제안한다. 기대주기 모델과 소비자 수용 모델이라는 이론적 배경을 바탕으로, 서지분석학과 초기 시장의 규모만으로 최대 잠재 시장을 추정해냄으로써 대표적인 확산 모형인 배스 모형(Bass model)에 필요한 주요 모수를 제공하는 방법을 제시했다. 모형의 예측력을 하이브리드자동차 사례를 통해 분석한 결과, 모형의 예측결과는 여러 가지 객관적인 정보를 통해 추정한 잠재 시장과 유사한 규모를 성공적으로 예측해 내어 모형의 활용 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다. 제안된 모형이 제공한 최대 잠재 시장은 다른 성장곡선모형에도 바로 적용 가능하다는 점을 볼 때 제안된 모형은 서지분석학을 통한 기술 확산 예측과 유망기술 탐색에 새로운 방향을 제시했다고 할 것이다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.45-59
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• 2013

A long-term forecasting method for a new product in early stage of diffusion is proposed. The method includes a constrained non-linear least square estimation with the logistic diffusion model. The constraints would be critical market informations such as market potential, peak point, and take-off. Findings on 20 cases having almost full life cycle are that (i) combining any market information improves the forecasting accuracy, (ii) market potential is the most stable information, and (iii) peak point and take-off information have negative effect in case of overestimation.