• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.427-442
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• 2011

In fatigue life design of mechanical components, uncertainties arising from materials and manufacturing processes should be taken into account for ensuring reliability. A common practice is to apply a safety factor in conjunction with a physics model for evaluating the lifecycle, which most likely relies on the designer's experience. Due to conservative design, predictions are often in disagreement with field observations, which makes it difficult to schedule maintenance. In this paper, the Bayesian technique, which incorporates the field failure data into prior knowledge, is used to obtain a more dependable prediction of fatigue life. The effects of prior knowledge, noise in data, and bias in measurements on the distribution of fatigue life are discussed in detail. By assuming a distribution type of fatigue life, its parameters are identified first, followed by estimating the distribution of fatigue life, which represents the degree of belief of the fatigue life conditional to the observed data. As more data are provided, the values will be updated to reduce the credible interval. The results can be used in various needs such as a risk analysis, reliability based design optimization, maintenance scheduling, or validation of reliability analysis codes. In order to obtain the posterior distribution, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique is employed, which is a modern statistical computational method which effectively draws the samples of the given distribution. Field data of turbine components are exploited to illustrate our approach, which counts as a regular inspection of the number of failed blades in a turbine disk.

• 대한핵의학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.237-244
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• 1991

$^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ renal scan has been evaluated not only the renal functional cell mass but also some anatomical structures at a loss of the renal parenchymal function. The author classified a renal morphology of the posterior image of $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ renal scan as the groups of symmetric and asymmetric morphology, the groups of the large, normal and small sized kidneys, the groups of the central photon defects (PD) which could be noted in a dilated pelvocalyceal system due to obstructive uropathy and the cortical photon defects (CD) due to focal parenchymal lesions or scars after a loss of function and the last groups of the single and multiple CD for a suggestion of the clinical usefulness. Regarding to measurement of normal renal size, the longest size of the kidneys were evaluated with 5 cm of a lead scale on the posterior renal image, and those were decided to the limits beteen 104.1 and 119.4 mm as comparison with the renal size of intravenous pyelogram (IVP) in 59 cases who were underwent $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ and IVP concommitantly. Among 85 cases of PD in $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ renal scan, the 61 (71.8%) were cases of a dilated pelvocalyceal system related with obstructive uropathy, meanwhile the 28 (27.0%) of 162 cases with CD were cases of obstructive and infectious uropathy. The probability of a presence of some uropathy in cases of CD were 99.3%, meanwhile that of the presence of CD in cases of some uropathy were 37.9%. Besides, there were some specific anatomical findings such as polycystic kidneys with symmetric enlarged kidneys with multiple CD and the kidneys of chronic renal failure and/or hypertension with symmetric small size in $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ renal stan.

• 대기
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.501-509
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• 2019

Asian Dust is a meteorological phenomenon that sand particles are raised from the arid and semi-arid regions-Taklamakan Desert, Gobi Desert and Inner Mongolia in China-and transported by westerlies and deposited on the surface. Asian dust results in a negative effect on human health as well as environmental, social and economic aspects. For monitoring of Asian Dust, Korea Meteorological Administration operates 29 stations using a continuous ambient particulate monitor. Kim et al. (2016) developed an automatic quality check (AQC) algorithm for objective and systematic quality check of observed PM₁₀ concentration and evaluated AQC with results of a manual quality check (MQC). The results showed the AQC algorithm could detect abnormal observations efficiently but it also presented a large number of false alarms which result from valid error check. To complement the deficiency of AQC and to develop an AQC system which can be applied in real-time, AQC has been modulated. Based on the analysis of instrument status codes, valid error check process was revised and 6 status codes were further considered as normal. Also, time continuity check and spike check were modified so that posterior data was not referred at inspection time. Two-year observed PM₁₀ concentration data and corresponding MQC results were used to evaluate the modulated AQC compared to the original AQC algorithm. The results showed a false alarm ratio decreased from 0.44 to 0.09 and the accuracy and the probability of detection were conserved well in spite of the exclusion of posterior data at inspection time.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.150-154
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• 2020

We present a case of osteoradionecrosis treated with leukocyte- and platelet-rich fibrin (LPRF) and surgery and followed up with clinical and tomographic investigations. A 65-year-old woman presented with pain in the posterior region of the right palate. Her medical history included cardiovascular disease and squamous cell carcinoma in the anterior region of the floor of the mouth that had been treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy. Measurements of isodose curves showed a full dosage of 6,462.6 cGy in the anterior mandibular region, whereas that in the posterior region on the right side of the maxilla reached 5,708.1 cGy. Osteotomy was performed using rotary instruments, and debridement and placement of two LPRF membranes were also carried out. New gum tissue with no bone exposure was noted 14 days postoperatively. Tissue repair was complete, and the patient had no further complaints. During a 39-month follow-up period, the oral mucosa remained intact, and the patient was rehabilitated with a new upper denture. Since there is no consensus regarding the best protocol to treat osteoradionecrosis, LPRF might be an interesting adjuvant to a surgical approach. The use of LPRF is simple and reduces operational costs, time of handling, probability of technical failure, and associated morbidities for patients with osteoradionecrosis.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.209-230
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• 2016

The Canton Tower is a high-rise slender structure with a height of 610 m. A structural health monitoring system has been instrumented on the structure, by which data is continuously monitored. This paper presents an investigation on the identified modal properties of the Canton Tower using ambient vibration data collected during a whole day (24 hours). A recently developed Fast Bayesian FFT method is utilized for operational modal analysis on the basis of the measured acceleration data. The approach views modal identification as an inference problem where probability is used as a measure for the relative plausibility of outcomes given a model of the structure and measured data. Focusing on the first several modes, the modal properties of this supertall slender structure are identified on non-overlapping time windows during the whole day under normal wind speed. With the identified modal parameters and the associated posterior uncertainty, the distribution of the modal parameters in the future is predicted and assessed. By defining the modal root-mean-square value in terms of the power spectral density of modal force identified, the identified natural frequencies and damping ratios versus the vibration amplitude are investigated with the associated posterior uncertainty considered. Meanwhile, the correlations between modal parameters and temperature, modal parameters and wind speed are studied. For comparison purpose, the frequency domain decomposition (FDD) method is also utilized to identify the modal parameters. The identified results obtained by the Bayesian method, the FDD method and a finite element model are compared and discussed.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제17권12호
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• pp.3009-3015
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• 2013

차세대 시퀀싱(NGS)은 암에서 전사체 싱글 뉴클레오티드 변형 발견과 모든 지놈 발견을 가능하게 한다. 어느 한 위치에서 배열된 다수의 짧은 리드 시퀀스로부터 개인의 유전자형을 결정하는 가장 기초적인 방법이다. Byesian 알고리즘은 사후 유전자형 확률을 사용하여 파라미터 추정한다. 또 다른 방법인 EM 알고리즘은 최대 가능성 추정 방법을 사용해서 관측된 데이터에서 파라미터를 추정한다. 본 논문에서는 새로운 유전자형 조사 시스템을 제안하고 시퀀싱 에러 비율과 체세포 돌연 변이 상태 그리고 유전자형 확률의 사후 추정치에 관한 샘플 크기(S = 50, 100, 500)의 영향을 비교 분석하였다. 그 결과 작은 샘플 크기 50에서도 Byesian 알고리즘을 사용하여 추정한 파라미터가 EM 알고리즘 보다 더 정확하게 실제 파라미터에 근접하였다.

• 농촌계획
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.153-168
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• 2017

The main objective of this study was to assess reference evapotranspiration based on multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) and estimation methods. In this study, 10 GCMs based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration. 54 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) data were constructed by statistical downscaling techniques. The meteorological variables of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were produced using GCMs. For the past and future periods, we estimated reference evapotranspiration by GCMs and analyzed the statistical characteristics and analyzed its uncertainty. Five methods (BC: Blaney-Criddle, HS: Hargreaves-Samani, MK: Makkink, MS: Matt-Shuttleworth, and PM: Penman-Monteith) were selected to analyze the uncertainty by reference evapotranspiration estimation methods. We compared the uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration method by the variable expansion and analyzed which variables greatly influence reference evapotranspiration estimation. The posterior probabilities of five methods were estimated as BC: 0.1792, HS: 0.1775, MK: 0.2361, MS: 0.2054, and PM: 0.2018. The posterior probability indicated how well reference evapotranspiration estimated with 10 GCMs for five methods reflected the estimated reference evapotranspiration using the observed data. Through this study, we analyzed the overall characteristics of reference evapotranspiration according to GCMs and reference evapotranspiration estimation methods The results of this study might be used as a basic data for preparing the standard method of reference evapotranspiration to derive the water management method under climate change.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제30권4B호
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• pp.389-397
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 극치수문자료의 경향성 분석 개념을 소개하고 이를 빈도해석과 연계시켜 해석하는 방법론을 제시하고자 Gumbel 극치분포를 기반으로, 시간변화에 의한 수문빈도 특성 변화를 모의할 수 있는 Bayesian 모형을 구성하였다. 사후분포의 매개변수는 깁스표본법에 의한 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation을 통해 추정하였으며, 이를 통해 경향성을 고려한 확률강우량과 불확실성 구간을 추정하였다. 또한 경향성을 고려한 확률강우량이 현재 알려진 확률강우량을 초과할 확률을 통해 동적 위험도 해석과정을 소개하였으며, 현재의 경향성에 대해서 시간에 따라 연속으로 추정된 확률밀도함수를 비교하여 수문학적 위험도가 증가할 수 있음을 모의결과를 통해 확인하였다. 이와 더불어 단순히 경향성의 존재여부를 확인하는데 그치지 않고 사후분포를 통해서 통계적 추론을 수행함으로써 경향성에 대한 통계학적인 유의성을 정량적으로 평가할 수 있었다.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.77-87
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• 2021

인터넷과 개인용 컴퓨터가 발달하면서 다양하고 복잡한 공격들이 등장하기 시작했다. 공격들이 복잡해짐에 따라 기존에 사용하던 시그니처 기반의 탐지 방식으로 탐지가 어려워졌으며 이를 해결하기 위해 행위기반의 탐지를 위한 로그 이상탐지에 대한 연구가 주목 받기 시작했다. 최근 로그 이상탐지에 대한 연구는 딥러닝을 활용해 순서를 학습하는 방식으로 이루어지고 있으며 좋은 성능을 보여준다. 하지만 좋은 성능에도 불구하고 판단에 대한 근거를 제공하지 못한다는 한계점을 지닌다. 판단에 대한 근거 및 설명을 제공하지 못할 경우, 데이터가 오염되거나 모델 자체에 결함이 발생해도 이를 발견하기 어렵다는 문제점을 지닌다. 결론적으로 사용자의 신뢰성을 잃게 된다. 이를 해결하기 위해 본 연구에서는 설명가능한 로그 이상탐지 시스템을 제안한다. 본 연구는 가장 먼저 로그 파싱을 진행해 로그 전처리를 수행한다. 이후 전처리된 로그들을 이용해 베이지안 확률 기반 순차 규칙추출을 진행한다. 결과적으로 "If 조건 then 결과, 사후확률(θ)" 형식의 규칙집합을 추출하며 이와 매칭될 경우 정상, 매칭되지 않을 경우, 이상행위로 판단하게 된다. 실험으로는 HDFS 로그 데이터셋을 활용했으며, 그 결과 F1score 92.7%의 성능을 나타내었다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.145-153
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• 2014

현재 국내외적으로 다양한 가뭄지수들이 개발과 더불어 가뭄평가를 위한 다양한 기준이 개발되고 있다. 가뭄지수를 이용하여 가뭄의 시작, 강도 및 종료 시점을 정의할 경우, 일반적으로 특정 기준값(threshold)에 근거한 해석이 이루어지고 있으나, 이는 실제 가뭄을 평가하는데 불확실성을 가중시키는 원인으로 작용하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존의 가뭄지수 기반의 가뭄판단 시 적용되어져 왔던 특정한 기준값에 근거한 해석이 아닌, 기상학적 가뭄발생의 주된 원인 중 하나인 월강수량 자료에 내재되어 있는 특징을 최대한 활용하고자 은닉 마코프 모형(Hidden Markov Model, HMM) 기반의 확률론적 가뭄해석기법을 제안하였다. 그 결과, 본 연구에서 제시한 HMM 기반의 확률론적 가뭄해석기법은 기존의 다양한 가뭄지수를 적용한 가뭄해석과 비교하여 기상학적 측면에서의 가뭄판단의 명확한 기준 제시 및 가뭄발생의 원인을 규명하는 데 있어 체계적으로 불확실성을 감안한 해석이 가능하였다.