• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.323-332
• /
• 2007

We present a new type of portmanteau test in the frequency domain which is derived from the discrete cosine transform(DCT). For the stationary time series, DCT coefficients are asymptotically independent and their variances are expressed by linear combinations of autocovariances. The covariance matrix of DCT coefficients for white noises is diagonal matrix whose diagonal elements is the variance of time series. A simple way to test the independence of time series is that we divide DCT coefficients into two or three parts and then compare sample variances. We also do this by testing the slope in the linear regression model of which the response variables are absolute values or squares of coefficients. Simulation results show that the proposed tests has much higher powers than Ljung-Box test in most cases of our experiments.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.39 no.12 s.173
• /
• pp.997-1012
• /
• 2006

We have presented a nonparametric stochastic approach for the SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) series that used nonlinear methodology called Nonlinear AutoRegressive(NAR) based on conditional kernel density function and CAFPE(Corrected Asymptotic Final Prediction Error) lag selection. The fitted linear AR model represents heteroscedasticity, and besides, a BDS(Brock - Dechert - Sheinkman) statistics is rejected. Hence, we applied NAR model to the SOI series. We can identify the lags 1, 2 and 4 are appropriate one, and estimated conditional mean function. There is no autocorrelation of residuals in the Portmanteau Test. However, the null hypothesis of normality and no heteroscedasticity is rejected in the Jarque-Bera Test and ARCH-LM Test, respectively. Moreover, the lag selection for conditional standard deviation function with CAFPE provides lags 3, 8 and 9. As the results of conditional standard deviation analysis, all I.I.D assumptions of the residuals are accepted. Particularly, the BDS statistics is accepted at the 95% and 99% significance level. Finally, we split the SOI set into a sample for estimating themodel and a sample for out-of-sample prediction, that is, we conduct the one-step ahead forecasts for the last 97 values (15%). The NAR model shows a MSEP of 0.5464 that is 7% lower than those of the linear model. Hence, the relevance of the NAR model may be proved in these results, and the nonparametric NAR model is encouraging rather than a linear one to reflect the nonlinearity of SOI series.