• Title/Summary/Keyword: Portfolio Approach

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Interrelation Between Start-up Characteristic and Venture Capital Investment Portfolio for Strategic Decision (투자유치 전략을 위한 스타트업의 특성과 벤처캐피탈 투자구성의 상호연관성 연구)

  • Ko, Young-Hee;Lee, Ho-Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2016
  • In these days startup became one of the most hot issue in business world. The problem is many startup couldn't overcome the valley of death. For this reason many startup want to funded by venture capital. However startup's business is trade secret itself, so they have to make strategic approach to venture capital. The purpose of study is to find the way to make strategic decision for startup. By analyzing the relation between startup's characteristic and venture capital's investment portfolio. Four famous venture capital(Sequoia capital, Lightspeed venture, Firstround and Khosla venture) and their seed invested startup Dropbox, Airbnb, Snapchat, Uber and Instacart was selected for this study. As a result, each venture capital has their own invest category characteristic and their seed funding belong to their category. Moreover, between seed funded startup and 36,4% of 244 past invented company shown vertical relationship, beside 0.5% of past 244 invested company shown horizontal relationship. This result shown the importance of the relation between startup's characteristic and venture capital's portfolio. Startup have to check the venture capital's portfolio for the strategic approach for funding and venture capital have to make mutual positive portfolio for decreasing the risk.

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Blockchain Based Financial Portfolio Management Using A3C (A3C를 활용한 블록체인 기반 금융 자산 포트폴리오 관리)

  • Kim, Ju-Bong;Heo, Joo-Seong;Lim, Hyun-Kyo;Kwon, Do-Hyung;Han, Youn-Hee
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2019
  • In the financial investment management strategy, the distributed investment selecting and combining various financial assets is called portfolio management theory. In recent years, the blockchain based financial assets, such as cryptocurrencies, have been traded on several well-known exchanges, and an efficient portfolio management approach is required in order for investors to steadily raise their return on investment in cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, deep learning has shown remarkable results in various fields, and research on application of deep reinforcement learning algorithm to portfolio management has begun. In this paper, we propose an efficient financial portfolio investment management method based on Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic (A3C), which is a representative asynchronous reinforcement learning algorithm. In addition, since the conventional cross-entropy function can not be applied to portfolio management, we propose a proper method where the existing cross-entropy is modified to fit the portfolio investment method. Finally, we compare the proposed A3C model with the existing reinforcement learning based cryptography portfolio investment algorithm, and prove that the performance of the proposed A3C model is better than the existing one.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.

A Study on Responsible Investment Strategies with ESG Rating Change (ESG 등급 변화를 이용한 책임투자전략 연구)

  • Young-Joon Lee;Yun-Sik Kang;Bohyun Yoon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.79-89
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of ESG rating changes of companies listed in Korean Stock Exchange on stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected prices and ESG ratings of all the companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index. Based on yearly change of ESG ratings we grouped companies as 2 portfolios(upgrade and downgrade) and calculated portfolios' return. Findings - First, the difference in returns between upgraded and downgraded portfolios is small and statistically insignificant. Second, however, in the COVID-19 period (2020 ~ 2021), the upgraded portfolio outperforms the downgraded portfolio by 0.7 percentage points per month. The difference in returns between upgraded and downgraded portfolios is statistically significant after controlling for the Carhart four factors. Lastly, there are much higher volatility when the ESG rating changes are made of companies with low levels of ESG ratings. Research implications or Originality - This study is the first to examine the impact of ESG rating changes on stock returns in Korea. Furthermore, the findings can serve as a reference for managers who want to control a firm's risk by ESG rating changes. Practically, asset managers can use the findings to construct portfolios that are less risky or more profitable than the market portfolio.

AN OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT PROBLEM WITH LABOR INCOME AND REGIME SWITCHING

  • Shin, Yong Hyun
    • Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.219-225
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    • 2014
  • I use the dynamic programming approach to study the optimal consumption and investment problem with regime-switching and constant labor income. I derive the optimal solutions in closed-form with constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) utility and constant disutility.

THE EFFECTS OF TAXATION ON OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT

  • Lim, Byung Hwa
    • Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2018
  • We investigate the optimal consumption and investment problem of working agent who faces tax system on consumption, labor income, savings and investment. By applying martingale method, we obtain the closed-form solutions so it is possible to verify the effect of tax system analytically.

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT FOR THE INSURER IN THE LEVY MARKET UNDER THE MEAN-VARIANCE CRITERION

  • Liu, Junfeng
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.28 no.3_4
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    • pp.863-875
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    • 2010
  • In this paper we apply the martingale approach, which has been widely used in mathematical finance, to investigate the optimal investment problem for an insurer under the criterion of mean-variance. When the risk and security assets are described by the L$\acute{e}$vy processes, the closed form solutions to the maximization problem are obtained. The mean-variance efficient strategies and frontier are also given.

A Study on Construction of an Optimal Fossil Fuel Mix: A Portfolio-Based Approach (평균-분산 모형을 이용한 화석에너지원 소비조합 구성에 관한 연구)

  • Cha, Kyungsoo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.335-356
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we attempted to suggest a way to evaluate appropriateness and efficiency for the energy consumption structure. For this, based on Markowitz (1952)' mean-variance portfolio model, we constructed an optimal fossil fuel mix. In constructing the optimal mix, we first defined returns on fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas) as TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent) per $1. Then, by using the dynamic latent common factor model, we decomposed the growth rates of the returns on each fossil fuel into two parts : the common part and the idiosyncratic part. Finally, based on the results from the dynamic latent common factor model, we constructed the optimal fossil fuel mix implied by the mean-variance portfolio model. Our results indicate that for the fossil fuel mix to be on the efficient frontier, it is crucial to reduce oil consumption as low as possible. Moreover, our results imply that it is more efficient to increase natural gas consumption rather than coal consumption in reducing oil consumption. These results are in line with the strategies for the future energy consumption structure pursued by Korea and indicate that reduction in oil use can improve overall efficiency in energy consumption.

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