• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.4 no.5
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• pp.527-555
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• 2013

This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.

• Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.71-80
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• 2011

The growth of the aging population in Korea will challenge health and social services. As Korean society changes, the U.S. models of end-of-life care and geriatric care for frail older adults may have increasing relevance for the Korean healthcare system. This article reviews three U.S. models of care for frail older adults: hospice and palliative care, the Program for All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE), and the transitional care model. We describe the strengths and limitations of each model and discuss ways in which these models could be adapted for the Korean healthcare system.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.31.2-31.2
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• 2012

We present the Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) models for spectroscopic and photometric evolutions of simple and composite stellar populations. The models are based on the most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale stellar evolutionary tracks and BaSel 3.1 flux libraries, and provide integrated spectroscopic quantities of Lick/IDS system including high-order Balmer absorption-lines. Special care has been taken to incorporate the systematic variation of horizontal branch (HB) morphology as functions of metallicity, age, alpha-element mixture, and helium abundance of simple stellar populations. Our models for normal-helium stellar populations indicate that the realistic modeling of HB and alpha-element brings about 5 Gyr and 0.1 dex differences in age and metallicity estimations, respectively, compared to those without these effects. The HB effect does not depend on the specific choice of stellar libraries and alpha-element enhancements, and this effect is non-negligible even in the metal sensitive absorption indices, such as Mg2 and Mg b. Comparison of the models to observations reveals that the HB and alpha-element effects are critical in understanding otherwise inexplicable phenomena found in globular cluster systems in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, including the observed bimodality of the line strengths of globular clusters in massive galaxies. In addition, we found that helium-enhanced stellar populations, which are the major sources of extreme HB stars, bring about increased FUV, NUV fluxes, and thus the model colors of those filters become extremely blue. Age dating based on the YEPS model with normal-helium stellar populations reveals that the evidence for 'downsizing' of elliptical galaxies is found not only in the local field but also in Coma cluster, and that the mean age of elliptical galaxies in Coma cluster is about 1.4 Gyr younger than the mean age of those in the local field. We also find that our models with helium-enhanced subpopulations can naturally reproduce the strong UV-upturns observed in giant elliptical galaxies assuming an age similar to that of old GCs in the Milky Way.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.18-28
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• 2013

It was compared the estimated parameters by the surplus production from three different models, i.e., three types (Schaefer, Gulland, and Schnute) of the traditional surplus production models, a stock production model incorporating covariates (ASPIC) model and a maximum entropy (ME) model. We also evaluated the performance of models in the estimation of their parameters. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of small yellow croaker (Pseudosciaena polyactis) in Korean waters ranged from 35,061 metric tons (mt) by Gulland model to 44,844mt by ME model, and fishing effort at MSY ($f_{MSY}$) ranged from 262,188hauls by Schnute model to 355,200hauls by ME model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) for small yellow croaker was obtained from the Gulland surplus production model, while the highest RMSE was from Schnute model. However, the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was from the ME model, but the ASPIC model yielded the lowest coefficient. On the other hand, the MSY of Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon) ranged from 16,880 mt by ASPIC model to 25,373mt by ME model, and $f_{MSY}$, from 94,580hauls by ASPIC model to 225,490hauls by Schnute model. In this case, both the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were obtained from the ME model, which showed relatively better fits of data to the model, indicating that the ME model is statistically more stable and robust than other models. Moreover, the ME model could provide additional ecologically useful parameters such as, biomass at MSY ($B_{MSY}$), carrying capacity of the population (K), catchability coefficient (q) and the intrinsic rate of population growth (r).

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.39-48
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• 2012

We investigate non-LTE effects on the $H_3^+$ level populations to help the analysis of the observed 2 and 3.5 micron $H_3^+$ emissions from the Jovian ionosphere. We begin by constructing a simple three-level model, in order to compute the intensity ratio of the R(3,4) line in the hot band to the Q(1,0) line in the fundamental band, which have been observed in the Jovian auroral regions. We find that non-LTE effects produce only small changes in the intensity ratios for ambient $H_2$ densities less than or equal to $5{\times}10^{11}cm^{-3}$. We then construct two comprehensive models by including all the collisional and radiative transitions between pairs of more than a thousand known $H_3^+$ rovibrational levels with energies less than 10000 $cm^{-1}$. By employing these models, we find that the intensity ratios of the lines in the hot and fundamental bands are affected greatly by non-LTE effects, but the details depend sensitively on the number of collisional and radiative transitions included in the models. Non-LTE effects on the rovibrational population become evident at about the same ambient $H_2$ densities in the comprehensive models as in the three-level model. However, the models show that rotational temperatures derived from the intensities of rotational lines in the ${\nu}_2$ and $2{\nu}_2$ bands may differ significantly from the ambie temperatures in the non-LTE regime. We find that significant non-LTE effects appear near and above the $H_3^+$ peak, and that the kinetic temperatures in the Jovian thermospheric temperatures derived from the observed line ratios in the 2 and 3.5 micron $H_3^+$ emissions are highly model dependent.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.145-152
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• 2013

Rotation-powered pulsars are excellent laboratories for studying particle acceleration as well as fundamental physics of strong gravity, strong magnetic fields and relativity. Particle acceleration and high-energy emission from the polar caps is expected to occur in connection with electron-positron pair cascades. I will review acceleration and gamma-ray emission from the pulsar polar cap and associated slot gap. Predictions of these models can be tested with the data set on pulsars collected by the Large Area Telescope on the Fermi Gamma-Ray Telescope over the last four years, using both detailed light curve fitting, population synthesis and phase-resolved spectroscopy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.115-125
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• 2011

By use of a mortality forecasting model and a life table, forecasting the average life expectancy is an effective way to evaluate the future mortality level. There are differences between the actual values of average life expectancy at present and the forecasted values of average life expectancy in population projection 2006 from Statistics Korea. The reason is that the average life expectancy forecasts did not reflect the increasing speed of the actual ones. The main causes of the problem may be errors from judgment for projection, from choice, or use of a mortality forecasting model. In this paper, we focus on the choice of the mortality forecasting model to inspect this problem. Statistics Korea should take a mortality forecasting model with considerable investigation to proceed population projection 2011 without the errors observed in population projection 2006. We compare the five mortality forecasting models that are the LC(Lee and Carter) model used widely and its variants, and the HP8(Heligman and Pollard 8 parameter) model for handling death probability. We make average life expectancy forecasts by sex using modeling results from 2010 to 2030 and compare with that of the population projection 2006 during the same period. The average life expectancy from all five models are forecasted higher than that of the population projection 2006. Therefore, we show that the new average life expectancy forecasts are relatively suitable to the future mortality level.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.157-175
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• 2022

This paper highlights the minimization of drag and lift coefficient of different types both side setback tall buildings by the multi-objective optimization technique. The present study employed 48 number both-side setback models for simulation purposes. This study adopted three variables to find the two objective functions. Setback height and setback distances from the top of building models are considered variables. The setback distances are considered between 10-40% and setback heights are within 6-72% from the top of the models. Another variable is wind angles, which are considered from 0° to 90° at 15° intervals according to the symmetry of the building models. Drag and lift coefficients according to the different wind angles are employed as the objective functions. Therefore 336 number population data are used for each objective function. Optimum models are compared with computational simulation and found good agreements of drag and lift coefficient. The design wind angle variation of the optimum models is considered for drag and lift study on the main square model. The drag and lift data of the square model are compared with the optimum models and found the optimized models are minimizing the 45-65% drag and 25-60% lift compared to the initial square model.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.378-391
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• 2018

Background: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. Methods: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. Results: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show 'healthy ageing' phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of -1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%-1.80% in healthcare expenditure. Conclusion: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, 'healthy ageing effect' suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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• 2022.10a
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• pp.235-235
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• 2022

Genome selection is a promising tool for plant and animal breeding, which uses genome-wide molecular marker data to capture large and small effect quantitative trait loci and predict the genetic value of selection candidates. Genomic selection has been shown previously to have higher prediction accuracies than conventional marker-assisted selection (MAS) for quantitative traits. In this study, the prediction accuracy of 10 agricultural traits in the wheat core group with 567 points was compared. We used a cross-validation approach to train and validate prediction accuracy to evaluate the effects of training population size and training model.As for the prediction accuracy according to the model, the prediction accuracy of 0.4 or more was evaluated except for the SVN model among the 6 models (GBLUP, LASSO, BayseA, RKHS, SVN, RF) used in most all traits. For traits such as days to heading and days to maturity, the prediction accuracy was very high, over 0.8. As for the prediction accuracy according to the training group, the prediction accuracy increased as the number of training groups increased in all traits. It was confirmed that the prediction accuracy was different in the training population according to the genetic composition regardless of the number. All training models were verified through 5-fold cross-validation. To verify the prediction ability of the training population of the wheat core collection, we compared the actual phenotype and genomic estimated breeding value using 35 breeding population. In fact, out of 10 individuals with the fastest days to heading, 5 individuals were selected through genomic selection, and 6 individuals were selected through genomic selection out of the 10 individuals with the slowest days to heading. Therefore, we confirmed the possibility of selecting individuals according to traits with only the genotype for a shorter period of time through genomic selection.