• 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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• 제30권9호
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• pp.551-557
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• 2017

It is extremely important to improve methodologies for the lifetime assessment of porcelain insulators. While there has been a considerable amount of work regarding the phenomena of lifetime distributions, most of the studies assume that aging distributions follow the Weibull distribution. However, the true underlying distribution is unknown, giving rise to unrealistic inferences, such as parameter estimations. In this article, we review several distributions that are commonly used in reliability and survival analysis, such as the exponential, Weibull, log-normal, and gamma distributions. Some properties, including the characteristics of failure rates of these distributions, are presented. We use a Bayesian approach for model selection and parameter estimation procedures. A well-known measure, called the Bayes factor, is used to find the most plausible model among several contending models. The posterior mean can be used as a parameter estimate for unknown parameters, once a model with the highest posterior probability is selected. Extensive simulation studies are performed to demonstrate our methodologies.

• 천문학회지
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.33-41
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• 2005

We have conducted observations toward the molecular cloud associated with the H II region Sh 156 in $^{13}CO$(J = 1-0), $C^{18}O$(J = 1-0), and CS(J = 2 -1) using the TRAO 14 m telescope. Combining with existing $^{12}CO$(J = 1- 0) data of the Outer Galaxy Survey, we delineated the physical properties of the cloud. We found that there is a significant sign of interaction between the H II region and the molecular gas. We estimated the masses of the molecular cloud, using three different techniques; the most plausible mass is estimated to be $1.37 {\times} 10^5 M_{\bigodot}$, using a conversion factor of $X = 1.9 {\times} 10^{20}\;cm^{-2} (K\;km\;s^{-1})^{-1}$, and this is similar to virial mass estimate. This implies that the cloud is gravitationally bound and in virial equilibrium even though it is closely associated with the H II region. In addition to existing outflow, we found several MSX and IRAS point sources associated with dense core regions. Thus, more star forming activities other than the existing H II region are also going on in this region.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권2호
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• pp.173-178
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• 2018

This study organizes scenarios on the power supply and demand plans considering the uncertainties and the portion of distributed energy resources. In analysing the scenarios, it estimates total electricity supply cost in the social aspect, natural gas demand and air pollutants emission including carbon dioxide. Also the analysis is performed to estimate the marginal cost of carbon dioxide reduction for the fuel switching from coal to liquified natural gas. In result, the social cost could be decreased by replacing some portion of renewable energy by LNG-based combined heat and power and delaying the construction of large base-load generators such as coal and nuclear plants. The marginal carbon dioxide reduction cost by fuel switching is in plausible range for fuel switching to be an option for carbon dioxide emission reduction when the social cost is considered.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.21-30
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• 1997

가속수명시험에서 강한충격수준에서 부품들의 고장시간이 관측되고 가속화된 고장시간을 토대로 정상충격수준에서 부품들의 성능을 조사한다. 본 논문은 지수수명분포에서 중도절단된 가속수명자료를 이용하여 고장률의 사전분포의 평균을 알 때, 정상조건하에서 하나의 미래 관찰치의 예측문제를 사전분포의 모수에 대하여 적률추정량을 이용하는 경험적 베이즈 접근방법을 적용시켜 경험적 베이즈 예측분포와 예측구간에 대하여 연구하였다.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2008년도 학술대회
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• pp.208-214
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• 2008

The equilibrium molecular-dynamic simulations have been performed to estimate the properties of the three kinds of fluids (the Lennard-Jones fluid, water and aqueous sodium-chloride solution) confined between two plates that are separated by 1.086 nm; included in the equilibrium properties are the density distribution and the static structure, and the diffusivity in the dynamic property. Three kinds of fluids considered in this study are. The water molecules are modeled by using the SPC/E model and the ions by the charged Lennard-Jones particle model. To treat the water molecules, we combined the quaternion coordinates with Euler angles. We also proposed a plausible algorithm to assign the initial position and direction of molecules. The influence of polarization of water molecules as well as the presence of ions in the solution on the properties will be addressed in this study. In addition, we performed the non-equilibrium molecular-dynamic simulation to compute the flow velocity for the case with the gravitational force acting on molecules.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2008년 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.208-214
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• 2008

The equilibrium molecular-dynamic simulations have been performed to estimate the properties of the three kinds of fluids (the Lennard-Jones fluid, water and aqueous sodium-chloride solution) confined between two plates that are separated by 1.086 nm; included in the equilibrium properties are the density distribution and the static structure, and the diffusivity in the dynamic property. Three kinds of fluids considered in this study are. The water molecules are modeled by using the SPC/E model and the ions by the charged Lennard-Jones particle model. To treat the water molecules, we combined the quaternion coordinates with Euler angles. We also proposed a plausible algorithm to assign the initial position and direction of molecules. The influence of polarization of water molecules as well as the presence of ions in the solution on the properties will be addressed in this study. In addition, we performed the non-equilibrium molecular-dynamic simulation to compute the flow velocity for the case with the gravitational force acting on molecules.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제38권6호
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• pp.460-471
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• 2012

Objectives: Due to global warming resulting from climate change, there has been increasing interest in the relationship between temperature and mortality. These temperature-related deaths depend on diverse conditions related to a given place and person, as well as on time. This study examined changes in the impact of high temperatures on death in summer, using the effect and burden of elevated temperatures on deaths in Seoul and Daegu. Methods: A Poisson regression model was used to estimate short-term temperature effects on mortality. Temperature-related risks were divided into three time periods of equal length (1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2010). In addition, in order to compare the impact of high temperatures on deaths, this study calculated the proportion of attributable deaths to population, which simultaneously considers the threshold and the slope above the threshold. Results: The effect and burden of high temperatures on deaths is high in Daegu. However, the impact (i.e. the effect and burden) of elevated summer temperatures on deaths has declined over the past 15 years. Sensitivity analyses using alternative thresholds show the robustness of these findings. Conclusion: This study suggests that the attributable burden of high temperatures on deaths to be more plausible than relative risk or threshold for comparing the health impact of high temperatures across populations. Moreover, these results contain important implications for the development or the adjustment of present and future strategies and policies for controlling the temperature-related health burden on populations.

• 한국전산유체공학회지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.24-34
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• 2009

The equilibrium molecular-dynamic simulations have been performed to estimate the properties of the three kinds of fluids confined between two plates that are separated by 1.086 nm; included in the statical properties are the density distribution and the static structure, and the autocorrelation velocity function in the dynamic property. Three kinds of fluids considered in this study are the Lennard-Jones fluid, water and aqueous sodium-chloride solution. The water molecules are modeled by using the SPC/E model and the ions by the charged Lennard-Jones particle model. To treat the water molecules, we combined the quaternion coordinates with Euler angles. We also proposed a plausible algorithm to assign the initial position and direction of molecules. The influence of polarization of water molecules as well as the presence of ions in the solution on the properties will be addressed in this study. In addition, we performed the non-equilibrium molecular-dynamic simulation to compute the flow velocity for the case with the gravitational force acting on molecules.

• 물과 미래
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.303-310
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• 1984

대수층을 취급하는데 있어서 어려운 문제중에 하나는 수문학적인 변수의 공간적인 분포를 추정하는 것이다. 대수충에서 전달계수의 분포를 결정하기 위하여, 몇 개의 자료가 유용하다; 관측정 주변 전달계수의 극부적인 값, 간섭실험, 약간의 지질구조 지식, 이러한 자료들은 대수층을 나타내는데 적절히 활용되어야 한다. 주어진 자료들이 적절히 반영되도록 3가지 최적화 계산과정에 따라 전달계수 분포를 추정하였다; 제한된 pilot point에서 조정된 값과 기지점의 값을 기초로 하여 변수분포의 지질 통계적인 평가, 수치 모델에 의하여 산정된 값과 비교, 최소화 알고리즘에 의하여 pilot point 값의 수종, 대수층에 위의 방법을 적용해 본 결과 매우 유용함이 증명되었다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.69.2-69.2
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• 2012

NGC 6861 is the brightest S0 galaxy in the Telescopium group. It has unusually high central stellar velocity dispersion (~400 km/s) and clear rotation (~250 km/s). Considering the well-known M-sigma relation, this large central dispersion implies that the central supermassive black hole (SMBH) has mass comparable to the most massive black holes in the Universe. However, the mass implied by the bulge luminosity-SMBH mass relation is an order of magnitude lower than that predicted by the M-sigma relation. In order to determine the origin of this inconsistency, we obtain integral field spectroscopy using the Wide Field Spectrograph (WiFeS) on the ANU 2.3m telescope. The data are used to map the velocity and velocity dispersion fields which show that our measurements are consistent with those from the other literature. The large field of view the WiFeS observations have allows us to map the kinematics of a much greater portion of NGC 6861 and reveals that the eastern part of the galaxy has higher velocity and dispersion than the rest of halo. We discuss the origin of the unusual fast rotation and the discrepancy of two SMBH mass estimations from three plausible perspectives: 1) the interaction between subgroups of NGC 6861 and its counterpart, NGC 6868; 2) the inhibited growth of the stellar bulge by the AGN activity which leads to an underestimate the SMBH mass when using the bulge luminosity-SMBH mass relation; and 3) gas rich minor mergers that could be crucial for increasing both rotation velocity and velocity dispersion during the evolution of NGC 6861.