• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.459-472
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• 2019

The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.

• Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.58-67
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• 2020

Terrestrial ecosystems influence climate change via their climate regulation function, which is manifested within the carbon, water, and energy circulation between the atmosphere and surface. However, it has been challenging to quantify the climate regulation of terrestrial ecosystems and identify its regional distribution, which provides useful information for establishing regional climate-mitigation plans as well as facilitates better understanding of the interactions between the climate and land processes. In this study, a land surface model (LSM) that represents the land-atmosphere interactions and plant phenological variations was introduced to assess the contributions of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric warming or cooling effects over East Asia over the last half century. Three main climate-regulating components were simulated: net radiation flux, carbon exchange, and moisture flux at the surface. Then, the contribution of each component to the atmospheric warming or cooling (negative or positive feedback to the atmosphere, respectively) was investigated. The results showed that the terrestrial ecosystem over the Siberian region has shown a relatively large increase in positive feedback due to the enhancement of biogeochemical processes, indicating an offset effect to delay global warming. Meanwhile, the Gobi Desert shows different regional variations: increase in positive feedback in its southern part but increase in negative one in its eastern part, which implies the eastward movements of desert areas. As such, even though the LSM has limitations, this model approach to quantify the climate regulation is useful to extract the relevant characteristics in its spatio-temporal variations.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.149-163
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• 2004

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component of the hydrologic cycle which influences economic activities as well as the natural ecosystem. While there have been numerous studies on ET estimation for homogeneous areas using point measurements of meteorological variables, monitoring of spatial ET has not been possible at landscape - or watershed - scales. We propose a site-specific application of the land surface model, which is enabled by spatially interpolated input data at the desired resolution. Gyunggi Province of South Korea was divided into a regular grid of 10 million cells with 30m spacing and hourly temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation and solar irradiance were estimated for each grid cell by spatial interpolation of synoptic weather data. Topoclimatology models were used to accommodate effects of topography in a spatial interpolation procedure, including cold air drainage on nocturnal temperature and solar irradiance on daytime temperature. Satellite remote sensing data were used to classify the vegetation type of each grid cell, and corresponding spatial attributes including soil texture, canopy structure, and phenological features were identified. All data were fed into a standalone version of SiB2(Simple Biosphere Model 2) to simulate latent heat flux at each grid cell. A computer program was written for data management in the cell - based SiB2 operation such as extracting input data for SiB2 from grid matrices and recombining the output data back to the grid format. ET estimates at selected grid cells were validated against the actual measurement of latent heat fluxes by eddy covariance measurement. We applied this system to obtain the spatial ET of the study area on a continuous basis for the 2001-2003 period. The results showed a strong feasibility of using spatial - data driven land surface models for operational monitoring of regional ET.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.44 no.3 s.140
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• pp.231-235
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• 2005

This study was conducted to obtain the optimal spray time for Pseudaulacaspis prunicota (Maskell) (Homoptera: Diaspididae) in early seaon in Jeju. Oviposition time of overwintered females and activity of hatched nymphs of P. prunicola were monitored, and the phenology data were compared with the outputs estimated by a degree-days model of P. pentagona (Targioni-Tozzetti)). Overwintered females of P. prunicola began to lay eggs from mid to late April, and the eggs started to hatch from early May followed by the active migration of the hatched nymphs during mid May. The phenological events of P. prunicola in early season were likely comparable with those of P. pentagona reported in southern Korea and in central Japan. A degree-day model, which predicts the proportion of >50% hatched egg batches of P. pentagona (y=1[exp(-(-a+bx))]; y, proportion; x, degree-days based on $10.5^{\circ}C$ from 1 January; a=-18.80 and b=0.073), accurately described the migration time of P. prunicola hatched nymphs. Thus, it is considered that the degree-day model can be used for predicting the optimal spray time for P. prunicola in early season.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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• 2017.06a
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• pp.308-308
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• 2017

The low and unstable yield of soybean has been a major problem in Japan. Excess soil moisture conditions are one of the major factors to restrict soybean productivity. More than 80 % of soybean crops are cultivated in converted paddy fields which often have poor drainage. In central and eastern regions of Japan, the early vegetative growth of soybean tends to be restricted by the flooding damage because the early growth period is overlapped with the rainy season. Field observation shows that induced excess water stress in early vegetative stage reduces dry matter production by decreasing intercepted radiation by leaf and radiation use efficiency (RUE) (Bajgain et al., 2015). Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the responses of soybean growth for excess water conditions to assess these effects on soybean productions. In this study, we aim to modify the soybean crop model (Sinclair et al., 2003) by adding the components of the restriction of leaf area development and RUE for adaptable to excess water conditions. This model was consist of five components, phenological model, leaf area development model, dry matter production model, plant nitrogen model and soil water balance model. The model structures and parameters were estimated from the data obtained from the field experiment in Tsukuba. The excess water effects on the leaf area development were modeled with consideration of decrease of blanch emergence and individual leaf expansion as a function of temperature and ground water level from pot experiments. The nitrogen fixation and nitrogen absorption from soil were assumed to be inhibited by excess water stress and the RUE was assumed to be decreasing according to the decline of leaf nitrogen concentration. The results of the modified model were better agreement with the field observations of the induced excess water stress in paddy field. By coupling the crop model and the ground water level model, it may be possible to assess the impact of excess water conditions for soybean production quantitatively.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.78-82
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• 2022

Phenology determines the timing of crop development, and the timing of phenological events is strongly influenced by the temperature during the growing season. In process-based model, leaf area is simulated dynamically by coupling of morphology and phenology module. Therefore, the prediction of leaf appearance rate and final leaf number affects the performance of whole crop model. The dataset for the model equation was collected from SPA R chambers with five different temperature treatments. Beta distribution function (proposed by Yan and Hunt (1999)) was used for describing the leaf appearance rate as a function of temperature. The optimum temperature and the critical value were estimated to be 26.0℃ and 35.3℃, respectively. For evaluation of the model, the accumulated number of onion leaves observed in a temperature gradient chamber was compared with model estimates. The model estimate is the result of accumulating the daily increase in the number of onion leaves obtained by inputting the daily mean temperature during the growing season into the temperature model. In this study, the coefficient of determination (R²) and RMSE value of the model were 0.95 and 0.89, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.148-155
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• 2005

An accurate prediction of blooming date is crucial for many authorities to schedule and organize successful spring flower festivals in Korea. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has been using regression models combined with a subjective correction by forecasters to issue blooming date forecasts for major cities. Using mean monthly temperature data for February (observed) and March (predicted), they issue blooming date forecasts in late February to early March each year. The method has been proved accurate enough for the purpose of scheduling spring festivals in the relevant cities, but cannot be used in areas where no official climate and phenology data are available. We suggest a thermal time-based two-step phenological model for predicting the blooming dates of spring flowers, which can be applied to any geographic location regardless of data availability. The model consists of two sequential periods: the rest period described by chilling requirement and the forcing period described by heating requirement. It requires daily maximum and minimum temperature as an input and calculates daily chill units until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release. After the projected rest release date, it accumulates daily heat units (growing degree days) until a pre- determined heating requirement for flowering. Model parameters were derived from the observed bud-burst and flowering dates of cherry tree (Prunus serrulata var. spontanea) at KMA Seoul station along with daily temperature data for 1923-1950. The model was applied to the 1955-2004 daily temperature data to estimate the cherry blooming dates and the deviations from the observed dates were compared with those predicted by the KMA method. Our model performed better than the KMA method in predicting the cherry blooming dates during the last 50 years (MAE = 2.31 vs. 1.58, RMSE = 2.96 vs. 2.09), showing a strong feasibility of operational application.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.68-76
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• 2006

A thermal time-based two-step phenological model was used to project flowering dates of Japanese cherry in South Korea from 1941 to 2100. The model consists of two sequential periods: the rest period described by chilling requirement and the forcing period described by heating requirement. Daily maximum and minimum temperature are used to calculate daily chill units until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, daily heat units (growing degree days) are accumulated until a pre-determined heating requirement for flowering is achieved. Model calculations using daily temperature data at 18 synoptic stations during 1955-2004 were compared with the observed blooming dates and resulted in 3.9 days mean absolute error, 5.1 days root mean squared error, and a correlation coefficient of 0.86. Considering that the phonology observation has never been fully standardized in Korea, this result seems reasonable. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270 m grid spacing were prepared for the climatological years 1941-1970 and 1971-2000 from observations at 56 synoptic stations by using a spatial interpolation scheme for correcting urban heat island effect as well as elevation effect. A 25km-resolution temperature data set covering the Korean Peninsula, prepared by the Meteorological Research Institute of Korea Meteorological Administration under the condition of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2, was converted to 270 m gridded data for the climatological years 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The model was run by the gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets, each representing a climatological normal year for 1941-1970, 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. According to the model calculation, the spatially averaged flowering date for the 1971-2000 normal is shorter than that for 1941-1970 by 5.2 days. Compared with the current normal (1971-2000), flowering of Japanese cherry is expected to be earlier by 9, 21, and 29 days in the future normal years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, respectively. Southern coastal areas might experience springs with incomplete or even no Japanese cherry flowering caused by insufficient chilling for breaking bud dormancy.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.409-418
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• 2021

The land cover map is a very important data that is used as a basis for decision-making for land policy and environmental policy. The land cover map is mapped using remote sensing data, and the classification results may vary depending on the acquisition time of the data used even for the same area. In this study, to overcome the classification accuracy limit of single-period data, multi-series satellite images were used to learn the difference in the spectral reflectance characteristics of the land surface according to seasons on a U-Net model, one of the deep learning algorithms, to improve classification accuracy. In addition, the degree of improvement in classification accuracy is compared by comparing the accuracy of single-period data. Seoul, which consists of various land covers including 30% of green space and the Han River within the area, was set as the research target and quarterly Sentinel-2 satellite images for 2020 were aquired. The U-Net model was trained using the sub-class land cover map mapped by the Korean Ministry of Environment. As a result of learning and classifying the model into single-period, double-series, triple-series, and quadruple-series through the learned U-Net model, it showed an accuracy of 81%, 82% and 79%, which exceeds the standard for securing land cover classification accuracy of 75%, except for a single-period. Through this, it was confirmed that classification accuracy can be improved through multi-series classification.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.253-263
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• 2016

Chrysanthemum production would benefit from crop growth simulations, which would support decision-making in crop management. Chrysanthemum is a typical short day plant of which floral initiation and development is sensitive to photoperiod. We developed a model to predict phenological development and leaf appearance of chrysanthemum (cv. Baekseon) using daylength (including civil twilight period), air temperature, and management options like light interruption and ethylene treatment as predictor variables. Chrysanthemum development stage (DVS) was divided into juvenile (DVS=1.0), juvenile to budding (DVS=1.33), and budding to flowering (DVS=2.0) phases for which different strategies and variables were used to predict the development toward the end of each phenophase. The juvenile phase was assumed to be completed at a certain leaf number which was estimated as 15.5 and increased by ethylene application to the mother plant before cutting and the transplanted plant after cutting. After juvenile phase, development rate (DVR) before budding and flowering were calculated from temperature and day length response functions, and budding and flowering were completed when the integrated DVR reached 1.33 and 2.0, respectively. In addition the model assumed that leaf appearance terminates just before budding. This model predicted budding date, flowering date, and leaf appearance with acceptable accuracy and precision not only for the calibration data set but also for the validation data set which are independent of the calibration data set.