• Title/Summary/Keyword: Performance predict

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Probability Map of Migratory Bird Habitat for Rational Management of Conservation Areas - Focusing on Busan Eco Delta City (EDC) - (보존지역의 합리적 관리를 위한 철새 서식 확률지도 구축 - 부산 Eco Delta City (EDC)를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Geun Han;Kong, Seok Jun;Kim, Hee Nyun;Koo, Kyung Ah
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2023
  • In some areas of the Republic of Korea, the designation and management of conservation areas do not adequately reflect regional characteristics and often impose behavioral regulations without considering the local context. One prominent example is the Busan EDC area. As a result, conflicts may arise, including large-scale civil complaints, regarding the conservation and utilization of these areas. Therefore, for the efficient designation and management of protected areas, it is necessary to consider various ecosystem factors, changes in land use, and regional characteristics. In this study, we specifically focused on the Busan EDC area and applied machine learning techniques to analyze the habitat of regional species. Additionally, we employed Explainable Artificial Intelligence techniques to interpret the results of our analysis. To analyze the regional characteristics of the waterfront area in the Busan EDC district and the habitat of migratory birds, we used bird observations as dependent variables, distinguishing between presence and absence. The independent variables were constructed using land cover, elevation, slope, bridges, and river depth data. We utilized the XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) model, known for its excellent performance in various fields, to predict the habitat probabilities of 11 bird species. Furthermore, we employed the SHapley Additive exPlanations technique, one of the representative methodologies of XAI, to analyze the relative importance and impact of the variables used in the model. The analysis results showed that in the EDC business district, as one moves closer to the river from the waterfront, the likelihood of bird habitat increases based on the overlapping habitat probabilities of the analyzed bird species. By synthesizing the major variables influencing the habitat of each species, key variables such as rivers, rice fields, fields, pastures, inland wetlands, tidal flats, orchards, cultivated lands, cliffs & rocks, elevation, lakes, and deciduous forests were identified as areas that can serve as habitats, shelters, resting places, and feeding grounds for birds. On the other hand, artificial structures such as bridges, railways, and other public facilities were found to have a negative impact on bird habitat. The development of a management plan for conservation areas based on the objective analysis presented in this study is expected to be extensively utilized in the future. It will provide diverse evidential materials for establishing effective conservation area management strategies.

Hydraulic Model Experiments and Performance Analysis of Existing Empirical Formulas for Overtopping Discharge on Tetrapod Armored Rubble Mound Structures with Low Relative Freeboard (상대여유고가 낮은 테트라포드 피복 경사제의 월파량에 대한 수리모형실험 및 기존 경험식의 예측성능 분석)

  • Sang-Woo Yoo;Jae-Young Kim;Do-Sam Kim;Kwang-Ho Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2024
  • In coastal structure design incorporating revetments, the assessment of wave overtopping discharge relies on hydraulic model experiments. Numerous empirical formulas have been developed to predict overtopping discharge based on quantitative data from these experiments. Typically, for revetment structures aimed at mitigating wave overtopping, crest height is determined by considering the maximum amplitude of the design wave, resulting in a relatively high freeboard compared to wave heights. However, achieving complete prevention of all wave overtopping would require the crown wall to have substantial crest heights, rendering it economically impractical. Therefore, the concept of limiting discharge has been introduced in the design of revetment structures, aiming to restrict wave overtopping discharge to an acceptable level. Consequently, many coastal structures in real-world settings feature relatively lower freeboard heights than incident wave heights. This study investigated wave overtopping discharge on rubble-mound breakwaters with relatively low freeboard heights through hydraulic model experiments. Furthermore, it conducted a comparative analysis of the predictive capabilities of existing empirical formulas for estimating overtopping discharge using experimental data.

LNG Gas Demand Forecasting in Incheon Port based on Data: Comparing Time Series Analysis and Artificial Neural Network (데이터 기반 인천항 LNG 수요예측 모형 개발: 시계열분석 및 인공신경망 모형 비교연구)

  • Beom-Soo Kim;Kwang-Sup Shin
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2023
  • LNG is a representative imported cargo at Incheon Port and has a relatively high contribution to the increase/decrease in overall cargo volume at Incheon Port. In addition, in the view point of nationwide, LNG is the one of the most important key resource to supply the gas and generate electricity. Thus, it is very essential to identify the factors that have impact on the demand fluctuation and build the appropriate forecasting model, which present the basic information to make balance between supply and demand of LNG and establish the plan for power generation. In this study, different to previous research based on macroscopic annual data, the weekly demand of LNG is converted from the cargo volume unloaded by LNG carriers. We have identified the periodicity and correlations among internal and external factors of demand variability. We have identified the input factors for predicting the LNG demand such as seasonality of weekly cargo volume, the peak power demand, and the reserved capacity of power supply. In addition, in order to predict LNG demand, considering the characteristics of the data, time series prediction with weekly LNG cargo volume as a dependent variable and prediction through an artificial neural network model were made, the suitability of the predictions was verified, and the optimal model was established through error comparison between performance and estimates.

Fire Risk Prediction and Fire Risk Rating Evaluation of Four Wood Types by Comparing Chung's Equation-IX and Chung's Equation-XII (Chung's Equation-IX과 Chung's Equation-XII의 비교에 의한 목재 4종의 화재위험성 예측 및 화재위험성 등급 평가)

  • JiSun You;Yeong-Jin Chung
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.200-208
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    • 2024
  • Chung's equations-IX and Chung's equation-XII were utilized to predict the fire risk and evaluate fire risk ratings for four types of wood: camphor, cherry, rubber, and elm trees. The combustion tests were conducted using a cone calorimeter test method by ISO 5660-1 standards. The fire risk and fire risk rating (FRR) were compared for Fire Risk Index-IX (FRI-IX) and Fire Risk Index-XII (FRI-XII). The results yielded Fire Performance Index-XI (FPI-XI) ranging from 0.08 to 11.48 and Fire Growth Index-XI (FGI-XI) ranging from 0.67 to 111.89. The Fire Risk Index-XII (FRI-XII), indicating fire risk rating, exhibited an increasing order of cherry (0.45): Grade A (Ranking 5) < PMMA (1): Grade A (Ranking 4) < elm (1.23): Grade A (Ranking 3) < rubber (1.56): Grade A (Ranking 2) << camphor (148.23): Grade G (Ranking 1). Additionally, the fire risk index-IX (FRI-IX) was cherry (0): Grade A (Ranking 3) ≈ rubber (0): Grade A (Ranking 3) ≈ elm tree (0): Grade A (Ranking 3) < PMMA (1): Grade A (Ranking 2) << camphor tree (66.67): Grade G (Ranking 1). In general, camphor was found to have the highest fire risk. In conclusion, although the expression of the index is different as shown based on the standards of FRI-IX and FRI-XII, predictions based on fire risk assessment of combustible materials showed similar trends.

Product Evaluation Criteria Extraction through Online Review Analysis: Using LDA and k-Nearest Neighbor Approach (온라인 리뷰 분석을 통한 상품 평가 기준 추출: LDA 및 k-최근접 이웃 접근법을 활용하여)

  • Lee, Ji Hyeon;Jung, Sang Hyung;Kim, Jun Ho;Min, Eun Joo;Yeo, Un Yeong;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.97-117
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    • 2020
  • Product evaluation criteria is an indicator describing attributes or values of products, which enable users or manufacturers measure and understand the products. When companies analyze their products or compare them with competitors, appropriate criteria must be selected for objective evaluation. The criteria should show the features of products that consumers considered when they purchased, used and evaluated the products. However, current evaluation criteria do not reflect different consumers' opinion from product to product. Previous studies tried to used online reviews from e-commerce sites that reflect consumer opinions to extract the features and topics of products and use them as evaluation criteria. However, there is still a limit that they produce irrelevant criteria to products due to extracted or improper words are not refined. To overcome this limitation, this research suggests LDA-k-NN model which extracts possible criteria words from online reviews by using LDA and refines them with k-nearest neighbor. Proposed approach starts with preparation phase, which is constructed with 6 steps. At first, it collects review data from e-commerce websites. Most e-commerce websites classify their selling items by high-level, middle-level, and low-level categories. Review data for preparation phase are gathered from each middle-level category and collapsed later, which is to present single high-level category. Next, nouns, adjectives, adverbs, and verbs are extracted from reviews by getting part of speech information using morpheme analysis module. After preprocessing, words per each topic from review are shown with LDA and only nouns in topic words are chosen as potential words for criteria. Then, words are tagged based on possibility of criteria for each middle-level category. Next, every tagged word is vectorized by pre-trained word embedding model. Finally, k-nearest neighbor case-based approach is used to classify each word with tags. After setting up preparation phase, criteria extraction phase is conducted with low-level categories. This phase starts with crawling reviews in the corresponding low-level category. Same preprocessing as preparation phase is conducted using morpheme analysis module and LDA. Possible criteria words are extracted by getting nouns from the data and vectorized by pre-trained word embedding model. Finally, evaluation criteria are extracted by refining possible criteria words using k-nearest neighbor approach and reference proportion of each word in the words set. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, an experiment was conducted with review on '11st', one of the biggest e-commerce companies in Korea. Review data were from 'Electronics/Digital' section, one of high-level categories in 11st. For performance evaluation of suggested model, three other models were used for comparing with the suggested model; actual criteria of 11st, a model that extracts nouns by morpheme analysis module and refines them according to word frequency, and a model that extracts nouns from LDA topics and refines them by word frequency. The performance evaluation was set to predict evaluation criteria of 10 low-level categories with the suggested model and 3 models above. Criteria words extracted from each model were combined into a single words set and it was used for survey questionnaires. In the survey, respondents chose every item they consider as appropriate criteria for each category. Each model got its score when chosen words were extracted from that model. The suggested model had higher scores than other models in 8 out of 10 low-level categories. By conducting paired t-tests on scores of each model, we confirmed that the suggested model shows better performance in 26 tests out of 30. In addition, the suggested model was the best model in terms of accuracy. This research proposes evaluation criteria extracting method that combines topic extraction using LDA and refinement with k-nearest neighbor approach. This method overcomes the limits of previous dictionary-based models and frequency-based refinement models. This study can contribute to improve review analysis for deriving business insights in e-commerce market.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

A Simple Method for Evaluation of Pepper Powder Color Using Vis/NIR Hyperspectral System (Vis/NIR 초분광 분석을 이용한 고춧가루 색도 간이 측정법 개발)

  • Han, Koeun;Lee, Hoonsoo;Kang, Jin-Ho;Choi, Eunah;Oh, Se-Jeong;Lee, Yong-Jik;Cho, Byoung-Kwan;Kang, Byoung-Cheorl
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.403-408
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    • 2015
  • Color is one of the quality determining factors for pepper powder. To measure the color of pepper powder, several methods including high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), thin layer chromatography (TLC), and ASTA-20 have been used. Among the methods, the ASTA-20 method is most widely used for color measurement of a large number of samples because of its simplicity and accuracy. However it requires time consuming preprocessing steps and generates chemical waste containing acetone. As an alternative, we developed a fast and simple method based on a visible/near infrared (Vis/NIR) hyperspectral method to measure the color of pepper powder. To evaluate correlation between the ASTA-20 and the visible/near infrared (Vis/NIR) hyperspectral methods, we first measured the color of a total of 488 pepper powder samples using the two methods. Then, a partial least squares (PLS) model was postulated using the color values of randomly selected 3 66 samples to predict ASTA values of unknown samples. When the ASTA values predicted by the PLS model were compared with those of the ASTA-20 method for 122 samples not used for model development, there was very high correlation between two methods ($R^2=0.88$) demonstrating reliability of Vis/NIR hyperspectral method. We believe that this simple and fast method is suitable for highthroughput screening of a large number of samples because this method does not require preprocessing steps required for the ASTA-20 method, and takes less than 30 min to measure the color of pepper powder.

Modeling of Sensorineural Hearing Loss for the Evaluation of Digital Hearing Aid Algorithms (디지털 보청기 알고리즘 평가를 위한 감음신경성 난청의 모델링)

  • 김동욱;박영철
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 1998
  • Digital hearing aids offer many advantages over conventional analog hearing aids. With the advent of high speed digital signal processing chips, new digital techniques have been introduced to digital hearing aids. In addition, the evaluation of new ideas in hearing aids is necessarily accompanied by intensive subject-based clinical tests which requires much time and cost. In this paper, we present an objective method to evaluate and predict the performance of hearing aid systems without the help of such subject-based tests. In the hearing impairment simulation(HIS) algorithm, a sensorineural hearing impairment medel is established from auditory test data of the impaired subject being simulated. Also, the nonlinear behavior of the loudness recruitment is defined using hearing loss functions generated from the measurements. To transform the natural input sound into the impaired one, a frequency sampling filter is designed. The filter is continuously refreshed with the level-dependent frequency response function provided by the impairment model. To assess the performance, the HIS algorithm was implemented in real-time using a floating-point DSP. Signals processed with the real-time system were presented to normal subjects and their auditory data modified by the system was measured. The sensorineural hearing impairment was simulated and tested. The threshold of hearing and the speech discrimination tests exhibited the efficiency of the system in its use for the hearing impairment simulation. Using the HIS system we evaluated three typical hearing aid algorithms.

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Mathematical Models to Predict Staphylococcus aureus Growth on Processed Cheeses

  • Kim, Kyungmi;Lee, Heeyoung;Moon, Jinsan;Kim, Youngjo;Heo, Eunjeong;Park, Hyunjung;Yoon, Yohan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.217-221
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    • 2013
  • This study developed predictive models for the kinetic behavior of Staphylococcus aureus on processed cheeses. Mozzarella slice cheese and cheddar slice cheese were inoculated with 0.1 ml of a S. aureus strain mixture (ATCC13565, ATCC14458, ATCC23235, ATCC27664, and NCCP10826). The inoculated samples were then stored at $4^{\circ}C$ (1440 h), $15^{\circ}C$ (288 h), $25^{\circ}C$ (72 h), and $30^{\circ}C$ (48 h), and the growth of all bacteria and of S. aureus were enumerated on tryptic soy agar and mannitol salt agar, respectively. The Baranyi model was fitted to the growth data of S. aureus to calculate growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$; ${\log}CFU{\cdot}g^{-1}{\cdot}h^{-1}$), lag phase duration (LPD; h), lower asymptote (log CFU/g), and upper asymptote (log CFU/g). The growth parameters were further analyzed using the square root model as a function of temperature. The model performance was validated with observed data, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated. At $4^{\circ}C$, S. aureus cell growth was not observed on either processed cheese, but S. aureus growth on the mozzarella and cheddar cheeses was observed at $15^{\circ}C$, $25^{\circ}C$, and $30^{\circ}C$. The ${\mu}_{max}$ values increased, but LPD values decreased as storage temperature increased. In addition, the developed models showed acceptable performance (RMSE = 0.3500-0.5344). This result indicates that the developed kinetic model should be useful in describing the growth pattern of S. aureus in processed cheeses.