• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.12
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• pp.993-1003
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• 2023

Due to the increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the global mean temperature has risen by 1.1℃ compared to pre-industrial levels, and significant changes are expected in functioning of water supply systems. In this study, we assessed impacts of climate change and instreamflow management on water supply reliability in the Geum River basin, Korea. We proposed univariate climate response functions, where mean precipitation and potential evaporation were coupled as an explanatory variable, to assess impacts of climate stress on multiple water supply reliabilities. To this end, natural streamflows were generated in the 19 sub-basins with the conceptual GR6J model. Then, the simulated streamflows were input into the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The dynamic optimization by WEAP allowed us to assess water supply reliability against the 2020 water demand projections. Results showed that when minimizing the water shortage of the entire river basin under the 1991-2020 climate, water supply reliability was lowest in the Bocheongcheon among the sub-basins. In a scenario where the priority of instreamflow maintenance is adjusted to be the same as municipal and industrial water use, water supply reliability in the Bocheongcheon, Chogang, and Nonsancheon sub-basins significantly decreased. The stress tests with 325 sets of climate perturbations showed that water supply reliability in the three sub-basins considerably decreased under all the climate stresses, while the sub-basins connected to large infrastructures did not change significantly. When using the 2021-2050 climate projections with the stress test results, water supply reliability in the Geum River basin was expected to generally improve, but if the priority of instreamflow maintenance is increased, water shortage is expected to worsen in geographically isolated sub-basins. Here, we suggest that the climate response function can be established by a single explanatory variable to assess climate change impacts of many sub-basin's performance simultaneously.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.69-81
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• 2014

There is a growing interest in the technology transfer and commercialization both at home and abroad. Accordingly, this study looked at the concept of technology transfer and commercialization, identified the factors that should be taken into account in order to facilitate technology transfer and commercialization, and then performed a empirical analysis. As for the conventional technology transfer and commercialization, there was a tendency to limit its scope to the exploration, transfer and commercialization of technology itself. Here in this research, technology transfer and commercialization is defined the category to expand as various activities implemented in order to make sure that intellectual properties such as intangible technological developments, know-how, and knowledge are transferred between the relevant parties through a contract or negotiation, and the party to which the transfer is made can then further develop and exploit the technology into tangible products and other activities to obtain economic benefit out of that. In addition, the findings of the positive analysis of technology transfer and commercialization revealed that the focus of facilitating technology transfer has been on the technology itself, its management and securing efficiency of the systems and institutions involved in the technology transfer and commercialization. So there was lack of recognition as to the importance of financial support given to the phase of technology commercialization. This indicates that when it comes to the technology transfer and commercialization, quantitative performance has been the focus of interest such as patent application, registration, number of technology transfers, royalty, etc. So there was not enough understanding as to the issues of starting up a business, creating quality jobs through technology transfer and commercialization, which are directly related to the realization of the creative economy. In this regard, this research is expected to be used for the development for the future policies to boost technology transfer and commercialization as it suggests not only simply ensuring quantitative performance but also necessary to create the environment for the creation of the stable ecosystem for the parties involved in the technology transfer and commercialization and then to build circumstances in which creative economy can be realized.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.19-47
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• 2015

In this era of knowledge economy, a variety of virtual communities are proliferating for the purpose of knowledge creation and utilization. Since the voluntary contributions of members are the essential source of knowledge, member turnover can have significant implications on the survival and success of virtual communities. However, there is a dearth of research on the effect of membership turnover and even the method of measurement for membership turnover is left unclear in virtual communities. In a traditional context, membership turnover is calculated as the ratio of the number of departing members to the average number of members for a given time period. In virtual communities, while the influx of newcomers can be clearly measured, the magnitude of departure is elusive since explicit withdrawals are seldom executed. In addition, there doesn't exist a common way to determine the average number of community members who return and contribute intermittently at will. This study initially examines the limitations in applying the concept of traditional turnover to virtual communities, and proposes five membership fluidity measures based on a preliminary analysis of editing behaviors of 2,978 featured articles in English Wikipedia. Subsequently, this work investigates the relationships between three selected membership fluidity measures and group collaboration performance, reflecting a moderating effect dependent on work characteristic. We obtained the following results: First, membership turnover relates to collaboration efficiency in a right-shortened U-shaped manner, with a moderating effect from work characteristic; given the same turnover rate, the promotion likelihood for a more professional task is lower than that for a less professional task, and the likelihood difference diminishes as the turnover rate increases. Second, contribution period relates to collaboration efficiency in a left-shortened U-shaped manner, with a moderating effect from work characteristic; the marginal performance change per unit change of contribution period is greater for a less professional task. Third, the number of new participants per month relates to collaboration efficiency in a left-shortened reversed U-shaped manner, for which the moderating effect from work characteristic appears to be insignificant.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.237-262
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• 2022

There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.307-325
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• 2023

Due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, the frequency of people who are tired of living indoors visiting nearby mountains and national parks to relieve depression and lethargy has exploded. There is a place where thousands of people who came out of nature stop walking and breathe and rest, that is the mineral spring. Even in mountains or national parks, there are about 600 mineral springs that can be found occasionally in neighboring parks or trails in the metropolitan area. However, due to irregular and manual water quality tests, people drink mineral water without knowing the test results in real time. Therefore, in this study, we intend to develop a model that can predict the quality of the spring water in real time by exploring the factors affecting the quality of the spring water and collecting data scattered in various places. After limiting the regions to Seoul and Gyeonggi-do due to the limitations of data collection, we obtained data on water quality tests from 2015 to 2020 for about 300 mineral springs in 18 cities where data management is well performed. A total of 10 factors were finally selected after two rounds of review among various factors that are considered to affect the suitability of the mineral spring water quality. Using AutoML, an automated machine learning technology that has recently been attracting attention, we derived the top 5 models based on prediction performance among about 20 machine learning methods. Among them, the catboost model has the highest performance with a prediction classification accuracy of 75.26%. In addition, as a result of examining the absolute influence of the variables used in the analysis through the SHAP method on the prediction, the most important factor was whether or not a water quality test was judged nonconforming in the previous water quality test. It was confirmed that the temperature on the day of the inspection and the altitude of the mineral spring had an influence on whether the water quality was unsuitable.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.87-104
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• 2023

Recently, concerns are growing over small and medium-sized companies holding out on debt as domestic loan interest rates have risen sharply due to the prolonged impact of COVID-19 and soaring raw material prices. In addition, loans from small and medium-sized enterprises, which are difficult in the business environment, are increasingly being rejected due to high loan interest rates and excessive submission documents and financial statements-oriented screening of loans by the financial sector. Therefore, since it is necessary to discuss ways to promote financing and investment by SMEs, this study intends to suggest ways to promote investment through the use of SMEs' ESG systems. The purpose of this study is to suggest that the use of ESG evaluation indicators used as non-financial indicators helps predict the corporate value of SMEs and the importance of SMEs actively participating in ESG information disclosure. This study suggests the necessity of introducing and practicing ESG by SMEs where financing is important, and aims to analyze as an empirical result that the use of non-financial indicators helps predict corporate value. As a result of the study, the ESG performance and corporate value of SMEs showed a positive (+) relationship. It can be seen that both the grades and corporate value of SMEs by ESG sector have a positive (+) influence relationship. The total ESG rating was confirmed to have a positive effect on corporate value, and it was confirmed that SMEs with higher ESG environment, social, and governance ratings were evaluated higher. According to the research results, it is suggested that SMEs also need to use ESG evaluation indicators, and in order to promote the growth of SMEs, it is suggested that research on ways to re-examine the corporate value of SMEs is necessary. Therefore, this study suggests that the use of ESG should be actively recommended and implemented as a way to establish a management strategy for SMEs, and that efforts to disclose ESG information can soon help SMEs solve information asymmetry. In addition, SMEs want to understand the investment mechanism that the introduction and practice of ESG can lead to the improvement of the value of SMEs and suggest the necessity of SME-type ESG policies in the future.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.73-85
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• 2013

Nowadays, in today's information society, the importance of the knowledge service using the information to creative value is getting higher day by day. In addition, depending on the development of IT technology, it is ease to collect and use information. Also, many companies actively use customer information to marketing in a variety of industries. Into the 21st century, companies have been actively using the culture arts to manage corporate image and marketing closely linked to their commercial interests. But, it is difficult that companies attract or maintain consumer's interest through their technology. For that reason, it is trend to perform cultural activities for tool of differentiation over many firms. Many firms used the customer's experience to new marketing strategy in order to effectively respond to competitive market. Accordingly, it is emerging rapidly that the necessity of personalized service to provide a new experience for people based on the personal profile information that contains the characteristics of the individual. Like this, personalized service using customer's individual profile information such as language, symbols, behavior, and emotions is very important today. Through this, we will be able to judge interaction between people and content and to maximize customer's experience and satisfaction. There are various relative works provide customer-centered service. Specially, emotion recognition research is emerging recently. Existing researches experienced emotion recognition using mostly bio-signal. Most of researches are voice and face studies that have great emotional changes. However, there are several difficulties to predict people's emotion caused by limitation of equipment and service environments. So, in this paper, we develop emotion prediction model based on vision-based interface to overcome existing limitations. Emotion recognition research based on people's gesture and posture has been processed by several researchers. This paper developed a model that recognizes people's emotional states through body gesture and posture using difference image method. And we found optimization validation model for four kinds of emotions' prediction. A proposed model purposed to automatically determine and predict 4 human emotions (Sadness, Surprise, Joy, and Disgust). To build up the model, event booth was installed in the KOCCA's lobby and we provided some proper stimulative movie to collect their body gesture and posture as the change of emotions. And then, we extracted body movements using difference image method. And we revised people data to build proposed model through neural network. The proposed model for emotion prediction used 3 type time-frame sets (20 frames, 30 frames, and 40 frames). And then, we adopted the model which has best performance compared with other models.' Before build three kinds of models, the entire 97 data set were divided into three data sets of learning, test, and validation set. The proposed model for emotion prediction was constructed using artificial neural network. In this paper, we used the back-propagation algorithm as a learning method, and set learning rate to 10%, momentum rate to 10%. The sigmoid function was used as the transform function. And we designed a three-layer perceptron neural network with one hidden layer and four output nodes. Based on the test data set, the learning for this research model was stopped when it reaches 50000 after reaching the minimum error in order to explore the point of learning. We finally processed each model's accuracy and found best model to predict each emotions. The result showed prediction accuracy 100% from sadness, and 96% from joy prediction in 20 frames set model. And 88% from surprise, and 98% from disgust in 30 frames set model. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to provide effective algorithm for personalized service in various industries such as advertisement, exhibition, performance, etc.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.45-58
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• 2014

The Korean Culture Contents spread out to Worldwide, because the Korean wave is sweeping in the world. The contents stand in the middle of the Korean wave that we are used it. Each country is ongoing to keep their Culture industry improve the national brand and High added value. Performing contents is important factor of arousal in the enterprise industry. To improve high arousal confidence of product and positive attitude by populace is one of important factor by advertiser. Culture contents is the same situation. If culture contents have trusted by everyone, they will give information their around to spread word-of-mouth. So, many researcher study to measure for person's arousal analysis by statistical survey, physiological response, body movement and facial expression. First, Statistical survey has a problem that it is not possible to measure each person's arousal real time and we cannot get good survey result after they watched contents. Second, physiological response should be checked with surround because experimenter sets sensors up their chair or space by each of them. Additionally it is difficult to handle provided amount of information with real time from their sensor. Third, body movement is easy to get their movement from camera but it difficult to set up experimental condition, to measure their body language and to get the meaning. Lastly, many researcher study facial expression. They measures facial expression, eye tracking and face posed. Most of previous studies about arousal and interest are mostly limited to reaction of just one person and they have problems with application multi audiences. They have a particular method, for example they need room light surround, but set limits only one person and special environment condition in the laboratory. Also, we need to measure arousal in the contents, but is difficult to define also it is not easy to collect reaction by audiences immediately. Many audience in the theater watch performance. We suggest the system to measure multi-audience's reaction with real-time during performance. We use difference image analysis method for multi-audience but it weaks a dark field. To overcome dark environment during recoding IR camera can get the photo from dark area. In addition we present Multi-Audience Engagement Index (MAEI) to calculate algorithm which sources from sound, audience' movement and eye tracking value. Algorithm calculates audience arousal from the mobile survey, sound value, audience' reaction and audience eye's tracking. It improves accuracy of Multi-Audience Engagement Index, we compare Multi-Audience Engagement Index with mobile survey. And then it send the result to reporting system and proposal an interested persons. Mobile surveys are easy, fast, and visitors' discomfort can be minimized. Also additional information can be provided mobile advantage. Mobile application to communicate with the database, real-time information on visitors' attitudes focused on the content stored. Database can provide different survey every time based on provided information. The example shown in the survey are as follows: Impressive scene, Satisfied, Touched, Interested, Didn't pay attention and so on. The suggested system is combine as 3 parts. The system consist of three parts, External Device, Server and Internal Device. External Device can record multi-Audience in the dark field with IR camera and sound signal. Also we use survey with mobile application and send the data to ERD Server DB. The Server part's contain contents' data, such as each scene's weights value, group audience weights index, camera control program, algorithm and calculate Multi-Audience Engagement Index. Internal Device presents Multi-Audience Engagement Index with Web UI, print and display field monitor. Our system is test-operated by the Mogencelab in the DMC display exhibition hall which is located in the Sangam Dong, Mapo Gu, Seoul. We have still gotten from visitor daily. If we find this system audience arousal factor with this will be very useful to create contents.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.93-111
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• 2013

As Internet and information technology (IT) continues to develop and evolve, the issue of big data has emerged at the foreground of scholarly and industrial attention. Big data is generally defined as data that exceed the range that can be collected, stored, managed and analyzed by existing conventional information systems and it also refers to the new technologies designed to effectively extract values from such data. With the widespread dissemination of IT systems, continual efforts have been made in various fields of industry such as R&D, manufacturing, and finance to collect and analyze immense quantities of data in order to extract meaningful information and to use this information to solve various problems. Since IT has converged with various industries in many aspects, digital data are now being generated at a remarkably accelerating rate while developments in state-of-the-art technology have led to continual enhancements in system performance. The types of big data that are currently receiving the most attention include information available within companies, such as information on consumer characteristics, information on purchase records, logistics information and log information indicating the usage of products and services by consumers, as well as information accumulated outside companies, such as information on the web search traffic of online users, social network information, and patent information. Among these various types of big data, web searches performed by online users constitute one of the most effective and important sources of information for marketing purposes because consumers search for information on the internet in order to make efficient and rational choices. Recently, Google has provided public access to its information on the web search traffic of online users through a service named Google Trends. Research that uses this web search traffic information to analyze the information search behavior of online users is now receiving much attention in academia and in fields of industry. Studies using web search traffic information can be broadly classified into two fields. The first field consists of empirical demonstrations that show how web search information can be used to forecast social phenomena, the purchasing power of consumers, the outcomes of political elections, etc. The other field focuses on using web search traffic information to observe consumer behavior, identifying the attributes of a product that consumers regard as important or tracking changes on consumers' expectations, for example, but relatively less research has been completed in this field. In particular, to the extent of our knowledge, hardly any studies related to brands have yet attempted to use web search traffic information to analyze the factors that influence consumers' purchasing activities. This study aims to demonstrate that consumers' web search traffic information can be used to derive the relations among brands and the relations between an individual brand and product attributes. When consumers input their search words on the web, they may use a single keyword for the search, but they also often input multiple keywords to seek related information (this is referred to as simultaneous searching). A consumer performs a simultaneous search either to simultaneously compare two product brands to obtain information on their similarities and differences, or to acquire more in-depth information about a specific attribute in a specific brand. Web search traffic information shows that the quantity of simultaneous searches using certain keywords increases when the relation is closer in the consumer's mind and it will be possible to derive the relations between each of the keywords by collecting this relational data and subjecting it to network analysis. Accordingly, this study proposes a method of analyzing how brands are positioned by consumers and what relationships exist between product attributes and an individual brand, using simultaneous search traffic information. It also presents case studies demonstrating the actual application of this method, with a focus on tablets, belonging to innovative product groups.