• 제목/요약/키워드: Pearson's curves

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Structural reliability estimation using Monte Carlo simulation and Pearson's curves

  • Krakovski, Mikhail B.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.201-213
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    • 1995
  • At present Level 2 and importance sampling methods are the main tools used to estimate reliability of structural systems. But sometimes application of these techniques to realistic problems involves certain difficulties. In order to overcome the difficulties it is suggested to use Monte Carlo simulation in combination with two other techniques-extreme value and tail entropy approximations; an appropriate Pearson's curve is fit to represent simulation results. On the basis of this approach an algorithm and computer program for structural reliability estimation are developed. A number of specially chosen numerical examples are considered with the aim of checking the accuracy of the approach and comparing it with the Level 2 and importance sampling methods. The field of application of the approach is revealed.

Identifying significant earthquake intensity measures for evaluating seismic damage and fragility of nuclear power plant structures

  • Nguyen, Duy-Duan;Thusa, Bidhek;Han, Tong-Seok;Lee, Tae-Hyung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제52권1호
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    • pp.192-205
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    • 2020
  • Seismic design practices and seismic response analyses of civil structures and nuclear power plants (NPPs) have conventionally used the peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (Sa) as an intensity measure (IM) of an earthquake. However, there are many other earthquake IMs that were proposed by various researchers. The aim of this study is to investigate the correlation between seismic responses of NPP components and 23 earthquake IMs and identify the best IMs for correlating with damage of NPP structures. Particularly, low- and high-frequency ground motion records are separately accounted in correlation analyses. An advanced power reactor NPP in Korea, APR1400, is selected for numerical analyses where containment and auxiliary buildings are modeled using SAP2000. Floor displacements and accelerations are monitored for the non- and base-isolated NPP structures while shear deformations of the base isolator are additionally monitored for the base-isolated NPP. A series of Pearson's correlation coefficients are calculated to recognize the correlation between each of the 23 earthquake IMs and responses of NPP structures. The numerical results demonstrate that there is a significant difference in the correlation between earthquake IMs and seismic responses of non-isolated NPP structures considering low- and high-frequency ground motion groups. Meanwhile, a trivial discrepancy of the correlation is observed in the case of the base-isolated NPP subjected to the two groups of ground motions. Moreover, a selection of PGA or Sa for seismic response analyses of NPP structures in the high-frequency seismic regions may not be the best option. Additionally, a set of fragility curves are thereafter developed for the base-isolated NPP based on the shear deformation of lead rubber bearing (LRB) with respect to the strongly correlated IMs. The results reveal that the probability of damage to the structure is higher for low-frequency earthquakes compared with that of high-frequency ground motions.

Monitoring Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy of Primary Osteosarcoma Using Diffusion Kurtosis Magnetic Resonance Imaging: Initial Findings

  • Chenglei Liu;Yan Xi;Mei Li;Qiong Jiao;Huizhen Zhang;Qingcheng Yang;Weiwu Yao
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.801-811
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    • 2019
  • Objective: To determine whether diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) is effective in monitoring tumor response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with osteosarcoma. Materials and Methods: Twenty-nine osteosarcoma patients (20 men and 9 women; mean age, 17.6 ± 7.8 years) who had undergone magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and DKI before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy were included. Tumor volume, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), mean diffusivity (MD), mean kurtosis (MK), and change ratio (ΔX) between pre-and post-treatment were calculated. Based on histologic response, the patients were divided into those with good response (≥ 90% necrosis, n = 12) and those with poor response (< 90% necrosis, n = 17). Several MRI parameters between the groups were compared using Student's t test. The correlation between image indexes and tumor necrosis was determined using Pearson's correlation, and diagnostic performance was compared using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: In good responders, MDpost, ADCpost, and MKpost values were significantly higher than in poor responders (p < 0.001, p < 0.001, and p = 0.042, respectively). The ΔMD and ΔADC were also significantly higher in good responders than in poor responders (p < 0.001 and p = 0.01, respectively). However, no significant difference was observed in ΔMK (p = 0.092). MDpost and ΔMD showed high correlations with tumor necrosis rate (r = 0.669 and r = 0.622, respectively), and MDpost had higher diagnostic performance than ADCpost (p = 0.037) and MKpost (p = 0.011). Similarly, ΔMD also showed higher diagnostic performance than ΔADC (p = 0.033) and ΔMK (p = 0.037). Conclusion: MD is a promising biomarker for monitoring tumor response to preoperative chemotherapy in patients with osteosarcoma.

The history of high intensity rainfall estimation methods in New Zealand and the latest High Intensity Rainfall Design System (HIRDS.V3)

  • Horrell, Graeme;Pearson, Charles
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2011년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.16-16
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    • 2011
  • Statistics of extreme rainfall play a vital role in engineering practice from the perspective of mitigation and protection of infrastructure and human life from flooding. While flood frequency assessments, based on river flood flow data are preferred, the analysis of rainfall data is often more convenient due to the finer spatial nature of rainfall recording networks, often with longer records, and potentially more easily transferable from site to site. The rainfall frequency analysis as a design tool has developed over the years in New Zealand from Seelye's daily rainfall frequency maps in 1947 to Thompson's web based tool in 2010. This paper will present a history of the development of New Zealand rainfall frequency analysis methods, and the details of the latest method, so that comparisons may in future be made with the development of Korean methods. One of the main findings in the development of methods was new knowledge on the distribution of New Zealand rainfall extremes. The High Intensity Rainfall Design System (HIRDS.V3) method (Thompson, 2011) is based upon a regional rainfall frequency analysis with the following assumptions: $\bullet$ An "index flood" rainfall regional frequency method, using the median annual maximum rainfall as the indexing variable. $\bullet$ A regional dimensionless growth curve based on the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), and using goodness of fit test for the GEV, Gumbel (EV1), and Generalised Logistic (GLO) distributions. $\bullet$ Mapping of median annual maximum rainfall and parameters of the regional growth curves, using thin-plate smoothing splines, a $2km\times2km$ grid, L moments statistics, 10 durations from 10 minutes to 72 hours, and a maximum Average Recurrence Interval of 100 years.

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선박디젤추진축계 감쇠강제비틂진동의 확률적 해석 (Probabilistic Analysis of Forced-Damped Torsional Vibration of Marine Diesel Propulsion Shafting Systems)

  • 안시영
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.157-166
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    • 1994
  • 최근의 배는 에너지절약을 도모하기 위하여 디이젤기관이 대구경 장행정 소수실린더 저속회전화 추세에 있기 때문에 기진력이 커지고 있다. 이와같은 결과로 추진축계에 과잉비틂진동응력이 작용하게 되어 선박운항에 지장을 줄 정도의 플로렐러축의 결손사고가 종종 발생하곤 한다. 현재까지의 추지축계에 대한 설계 및 비틂진동해석은 대부분 축계의 비틂기진력이 확정적이란 가정하에 수행되어 왔다. 이와 관련하여 축계 비틂기진력의 불규칙성의 영향을 고려한 확률적 비틂진동해석에 관한 연구가 이루워지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기관기진력의 확률변수를 고려하여 추진축계의 강제 비틂진동의 확률적 해석에 대한 새로운 방법을 제시하였다. 확률적 해석에 응답면이론과 Monte Carlo 시뮤레이션 방법이 이용되었다. 본 해석방법의 타당성 여부를 확인하기 위하여 Nikolaidis 등이 사용한 시산대상선에 대한 일련의 수치계산을 수행하고, 그 결과를 Nikolaidis 등의 연구결과와 비교 검토하여 본 결과 비교적 잘 일치하고 있음을 미루어 보아 본 해석방법이 타당성이 확인되었다.

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폐경 후 여성에서 골다공증의 조기검진도구로서 골초음파의 유용성 (Quantitative Ultrasound for Osteoporosis Screening in Postmenopausal Women)

  • 신희영;정은경;이정애;최진수;신민호
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.408-416
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    • 2001
  • Objectives : To evaluate the diagnostic value of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in the prediction of osteoporosis as defined by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) in postmenopausal women. Methods : Questionnaires and height and weight measurements were used in the investigation of 176 postmenopausal women. QUS measurements were taken on the right calcaneus while bone mineral density (BMD) measurements of the lumbar spine and femoral neck were made with DEXA. The areas under the curves (AUC) of the speed of sound (SOS) for osteoporosis in the lumbar spine and femoral neck were obtained through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and evaluated. A comparison was made, for osteoporosis in the lumbar spine and femoral neck, between the AUCs of the logistic model with clinical risk factors and SOS. Results : Pearson's correlation coefficients of SOS and lumbar spine BMD, and of SOS and femoral neck BMD were 0.26 and 0.37. The AUC for the logistic model in its discrimination for lumbar spine osteoporosis was 0.764, and for SOS 0.605. The AUCs for the logistic model in its discrimination for femoral neck osteoporosis and for SOS were 0.890 and 0.892, respectively. Conclusions : These results suggest that the diagnostic value of QUS as a screening tool for osteoporosis is moderate for the femoral neck, but merely low for the lumbar spine and that the predictability provided by SOS is no better than that by the sole use of clinical risk factors in postmenopausal women.

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Metabolic Changes in Patients with Parkinson's Disease after Stereotactic Neurosurgery by Follow-up 1H MR Spectroscopy

  • Choe, Bo-Young;Baik, Hyun-Man;Chun, Shin-Soo;Son, Byung-Chul;Kim, Moon-Chan;Kim, Bum-Soo;Lee, Hyoung-Koo;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • 한국자기공명학회논문지
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2001
  • Authors investigated neuronal changes of local cellular metabolism in the cerebral lesions of Parkinsonian symptomatic side between before and after stereotactic neurosurgery by follow-up 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS). Patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) (n = 15) and age-matched normal controls (n = 15) underwen MRS examinations using a stimulated echo acquisition mode (STEAM) pulse sequence that provided 2${\times}$2${\times}$2 ㎤ (8ml) volume of interest in the regions of substantia nigra, thalamus, and lentiform nucleus. Spectral parameters were 20 ms TE, 2000 ms TR, 128 averages,2500 Hz spectral width, and 2048 data points. Raw data were processed by the SAGE data analysis package (GE Medical Systems). Peak areas of N-acetylaspartate (NAA), creatine (Cr), choline-containing compounds (Cho), inositols (Ins), and the sum (Glx) of glutamate and GABA were calculated by means of fitting the spectrum to a summation of Lorentzian curves using Marquardt algorithm. After blindly processed, we evaluated neuronal alterations of observable metabolite ratios between before and after stereotactic neurosurgery using Pearson product-moment analysis (SPSS, Ver. 6.0). A significant reduction of NAA/Cho ratio was observed in the cerebral lesion in substantia nigra of PD patient related to the symptomatic side after neurosurgery (P : 0.03). In thalamus, NAA/Cho ratio was also significantly decreased in the cerebral lesion including the electrode-surgical region (P : 0.03). A significant reduction of NAA/Cho ratio in lentiform nucleus was not oberved, but tended toward significant reduction after neurosurgery (P = 0.08). In particular, remarkable lactate signal was noted from the surgical thalamic lesions of 6 among 8 patients and internal segments of globus pallidus of 6 among 7 patients, respectively. Significant metabolic alterations of NAA/Cho ratio might reflect functional changes of neuropathological processes in the lesion of substantia nigra, thalamus, and lentiform nucleus, and could be a valuable finding fur evaluation of Parkinson's disease after neurosurgery. Increase of lactate signals, being remarkable in surgical lesions, could be consistent with a common consequence of neurosurgical necrosis. Thus, IH MRS could be a useful modality to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic implications fur Parkinsons disease after functional neurosurgery.

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남녀 대학생의 척추만곡에 관한 연구 (A Study of Spinal Curvature in Female and Male University Students)

  • 이병규;남기석;이충휘
    • 한국전문물리치료학회지
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.72-87
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    • 1998
  • This study examined the rates of spinal abnormal curvature and the correlation of the Body Mass Index (BMI), Low Back Pain (LBP) and spinal curvature by measuring scoliosis, kyphosis, and lordosis in university students. The study population included 67 male, 92 female university students, making a total of 159, in Wonju City. Spinal curvature was measured by an electrogoniometer in a computerized skeletal analysis system. Lateral curvature of spine of more than 10 degrees was considered as nonspostural scoliosis. The correlation of BMI, LBP and the spinal curvature was analysed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and t-test. The following results were obtained: 1. The overall incidence and rate of scoliosis in cases with a greater than 10 degree curve in males was an incidence of 8 and a rate of 11%. In females the incidence was 36 and the rate 39.2%. 2. The overall incidence and rate of kyphosis of less than 20 degrees in males was a rate of 9 and an incidence of 11.9%. In females, the rate was 5 and the incidence 5.4%. In kyphosis cases of more than 40 degrees, the male rate was 5 and the incidence 7.7%. For female the rate was 13 and the incidence 14.2%. 3. The overall incidence and rate of lordosis with curves of less than 20 degrees was a rate of 6 for males and an incidence of 9.0%. For females, the rate was 5 and the incidence 5.4%. In cases of more than 50 degrees lordosis, the female rate was 2 and the incidence 2.2%. There were no males in this category. 4. There was a negative correlation between kyphosis and BMI. The greater the kyphotic curve, the less the BMI in males (p<0.05). There was no significant BMI difference by gender in either scoliosis or lordosis. There was, however, a significantly decreased sacral angle in the female group with LBP. The results of this study cannot be generalized to the general population because the subjects were all from one university. The measurements were quite reliable because the angles determined by the Metrocom System were highly correlated with radiologic findings. This study shows the need for a regular screening system for spinal curvatures in university health examination procedures.

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약물중독 환자에서 Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio의 흡인성폐렴 발생 예측인자로서의 고찰 (Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio as A Predictor of Aspiration Pneumonia in Drug Intoxication Patients)

  • 이정범;이선화;윤성종;류석용;최승운;김혜진;강태경;오성찬;조석진;서범석
    • 대한임상독성학회지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To evaluate the association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and occurrence of aspiration pneumonia in drug intoxication (DI) patients in the emergency department (ED) and to evaluate the relationship between NLR and length of hospital admission/intensive care unit (ICU) admission Methods: A total of 466 patients diagnosed with DI in the ED from January 2016 to December 2017 were included in the analysis. The clinical and laboratory results, including NLR, were evaluated as variables. NLR was calculated as the absolute neutrophil count/absolute lymphocyte count. To evaluate the prognosis of DI, data on the development of aspiration pneumonia were obtained. Also, we evaluated the relationship between NLR and length of hospital admission and between NLR and length of ICU admission. Statistically, multivariate logistic regression analyses, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and Pearson's correlation (${\rho}$) were performed. Results: Among the 466 DI patients, 86 (18.5%) developed aspiration pneumonia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed NLR as an independent factor in predicting aspiration pneumonia (odds ratio, 1.7; p=0.001). NLR showed excellent predictive performance for aspiration pneumonia (areas under the ROC curves, 0.815; cut-off value, 3.47; p<0.001) with a sensitivity of 86.0% and a specificity of 72.6%. No correlations between NLR and length of hospital admission (${\rho}=0.195$) and between NLR and length of ICU admission (${\rho}=0.092$) were observed. Conclusion: The NLR is a simple and effective marker for predicting the occurrence of aspiration pneumonia in DI patients. Emergency physicians should be alert for aspiration pneumonia in DI patients with high NLR value (>3.47).

인체 암세포주에서 방사선감수성의 지표간의 상호관계 (Correlation Between the Parameters of Radiosensitivity in Human Cancer Cell Lines)

  • 박우윤;김원동;민경수
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 1998
  • 목적 : 임상에서 발생빈도가 높은 위선암, 폐선암, 망막세포종, 자궁경부 편평상피암의 4가지 인 체암세포주(MKN-45, PC-14, Y-79, HeL)를 이용하여 방사선조사후 세포생존분획 및 세포생존곡선의 모양을 결정하는 지표를 구하고 방사선조사후 손상 회복정도를 측정하여 이들 여러 지표간의 상관관계 여부를 구명하기 위하여 본실험을 시행하였다. 대상 및 방법 :각 세포주의 방사선감수성을 보기 위하여 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 및 10Gy의 방사선을 1 회 조사하였고 방사선조사후 준치사손상 회복정도를 보기 위하여 5Gy씩 2회의 방사선조사를 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 및 24시간 간격으로 시행하였다. 세포의 생존분획은 $Sperman-K\"{a}rbor$ 방법으로 세포집락형성능력을 측정하여 산출하였으며 생존곡선의 수학적 분석은 linear-quadratic(LQ), multitarget-single hit(MS) 모형과 mean inactivation $dose(\v{D})$를 이용하였다. 결과 : 방사선조사후의 세포생존 실험결과 2Gy에서의 세포생존분획(SF2)은 0.174에서 0.85까지 다양하게 나타났으며 Y-79는 유의하게 낮은 SF2를, PC-14는 높은 SF2를 나타내었다(p<0.05, t-test). LQ model로 분석한 방사선 세포생존곡선의 분석결과 Y-79, MKN-45, HeLa, PC-14에서 ${\alpha}$가 각각 0.603, 0.355, 0.275, 0.102이었고 ${\beta}$는 각각 0.005, 0.016, 0.025, 0.027이었다. MS model로 분석한 결과는 Y-79, MKN-45, HeLa, PC-14에서 Do가 각각 1.59, 1.84, 1.88, 2.52였고 n은 0.97, 1.46, 1.52, 1.69를 보였다. 한편 Gauss-Laguerre방법으로 계산한 $\v{D}$는 Y-79, MKN-45, HeLa, PC-14에서 각각 1.62, 2.37, 2.61, 3.95였다. SF2가 감소함에 따라 ${\alpha}$값은 증가하였고 Do, $\v{D}$값은 감소하였으며 이들간의 Pearson 상관계수는 각각 0.953, 0.993, 0.999였다. (p<0.05). 분할조사에 의한 준치사손상 회복정도는 약 4시간 내외에 포화상태에 도달하였으며 포화상태의 recovery ratio(RR)는 2에서 3.79 사이였다. RR은 방사선감수성의 지표인 SF2, ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$, Do, $\v{D}$과 통계학적으로 유의한 상관관계를 나타내지 않았다. 결론 : 본 연구의 결과 네가지 인체상피암세포주의 내재적 발사선감수성은 서로 상이하였으며 Y-79가 가장 민감하였고, MKN-45와 HeLa는 각각 중등도의 방사선감수성을 나타냈으며 PC-14는 방사선감수성이 가장 낮았다. 이와같은 감수성의 차이는 SF2, ${\alpha}$, Do와 $\v{D}$의 차이로 나타났으며 띠들간에는 밀접한 상관관계를 나타내었다. 방사선에 의한 준치사손상 회복력은 MKN-45와 HeLa에서 높게 나타났고 회복력과 방사선감수성과는 무관하였다. 각 암세포주에 따르는 이와같은 지표들은 향후 방사선치료 효과를 높이기 위한 방사선생물학 실험의 기초 자료로서 이용되어 질 수 있을 것이다.

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