The Effects of Online Service Quality on Consumer Satisfaction and Loyalty Intention -About Booking and Issuing Air Tickets on Website- (온라인 서비스 품질이 고객만족 및 충성의도에 미치는 영향 -항공권 예약.발권 웹사이트를 중심으로-)
- Park, Jong-Gee;Ko, Do-Eun;Lee, Seung-Chang
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- Journal of Distribution Research
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- v.15 no.3
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- pp.71-110
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- 2010
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1. Introduction Today Internet is recognized as an important way for the transaction of products and services. According to the data surveyed by the National Statistical Office, the on-line transaction in 2007 for a year, 15.7656 trillion, shows a 17.1%(2.3060 trillion won) increase over last year, of these, the amount of B2C has been increased 12.0%(10.2258 trillion won). Like this, because the entry barrier of on-line market of Korea is low, many retailers could easily enter into the market. So the bigger its scale is, but on the other hand, the tougher its competition is. Particularly due to the Internet and innovation of IT, the existing market has been changed into the perfect competitive market(Srinivasan, Rolph & Kishore, 2002). In the early years of on-line business, they think that the main reason for success is a moderate price, they are awakened to its importance of on-line service quality with tough competition. If it's not sure whether customers can be provided with what they want, they can use the Web sites, perhaps they can trust their products that had been already bought or not, they have a doubt its viability(Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhotra, 2005). Customers can directly reserve and issue their air tickets irrespective of place and time at the Web sites of travel agencies or airlines, but its empirical studies about these Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets are insufficient. Therefore this study goes on for following specific objects. First object is to measure service quality and service recovery of Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets. Second is to look into whether above on-line service quality and on-line service recovery have an impact on overall service quality. Third is to seek for the relation with overall service quality and customer satisfaction, then this customer satisfaction and loyalty intention. 2. Theoretical Background 2.1 On-line Service Quality Barnes & Vidgen(2000; 2001a; 2001b; 2002) had invented the tool to measure Web sites' quality four times(called WebQual). The WebQual 1.0, Step one invented a measuring item for information quality based on QFD, and this had been verified by students of UK business school. The Web Qual 2.0, Step two invented for interaction quality, and had been judged by customers of on-line bookshop. The WebQual 3.0, Step three invented by consolidating the WebQual 1.0 for information quality and the WebQual2.0 for interactionquality. It includes 3-quality-dimension, information quality, interaction quality, site design, and had been assessed and confirmed by auction sites(e-bay, Amazon, QXL). Furtheron, through the former empirical studies, the authors changed sites quality into usability by judging that usability is a concept how customers interact with or perceive Web sites and It is used widely for accessing Web sites. By this process, WebQual 4.0 was invented, and is consist of 3-quality-dimension; information quality, interaction quality, usability, 22 items. However, because WebQual 4.0 is focusing on technical part, it's usable at the Website's design part, on the other hand, it's not usable at the Web site's pleasant experience part. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2002; 2005) had invented the measure for measuring on-line service quality in 2002 and 2005. The study in 2002 divided on-line service quality into 5 dimensions. But these were not well-organized, so there needed to be studied again totally. So Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) re-worked out the study about on-line service quality measure base on 2002's study and invented E-S-QUAL. After they invented preliminary measure for on-line service quality, they made up a question for customers who had purchased at amazon.com and walmart.com and reassessed this measure. And they perfected an invention of E-S-QUAL consists of 4 dimensions, 22 items of efficiency, system availability, fulfillment, privacy. Efficiency measures assess to sites and usability and others, system availability measures accurate technical function of sites and others, fulfillment measures promptness of delivering products and sufficient goods and others and privacy measures the degree of protection of data about their customers and so on. 2.2 Service Recovery Service industries tend to minimize the losses by coping with service failure promptly. This responses of service providers to service failure mean service recovery(Kelly & Davis, 1994). Bitner(1990) went on his study from customers' view about service providers' behavior for customers to recognize their satisfaction/dissatisfaction at service point. According to them, to manage service failure successfully, exact recognition of service problem, an apology, sufficient description about service failure and some tangible compensation are important. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) approached the service recovery from how to measure, rather than how to manage, and moved to on-line market not to off-line, then invented E-RecS-QUAL which is a measuring tool about on-line service recovery. 2.3 Customer Satisfaction The definition of customer satisfaction can be divided into two points of view. First, they approached customer satisfaction from outcome of comsumer. Howard & Sheth(1969) defined satisfaction as 'a cognitive condition feeling being rewarded properly or improperly for their sacrifice.' and Westbrook & Reilly(1983) also defined customer satisfaction/dissatisfaction as 'a psychological reaction to the behavior pattern of shopping and purchasing, the display condition of retail store, outcome of purchased goods and service as well as whole market.' Second, they approached customer satisfaction from process. Engel & Blackwell(1982) defined satisfaction as 'an assessment of a consistency in chosen alternative proposal and their belief they had with them.' Tse & Wilton(1988) defined customer satisfaction as 'a customers' reaction to discordance between advance expectation and ex post facto outcome.' That is, this point of view that customer satisfaction is process is the important factor that comparing and assessing process what they expect and outcome of consumer. Unlike outcome-oriented approach, process-oriented approach has many advantages. As process-oriented approach deals with customers' whole expenditure experience, it checks up main process by measuring one by one each factor which is essential role at each step. And this approach enables us to check perceptual/psychological process formed customer satisfaction. Because of these advantages, now many studies are adopting this process-oriented approach(Yi, 1995). 2.4 Loyalty Intention Loyalty has been studied by dividing into behavioral approaches, attitudinal approaches and complex approaches(Dekimpe et al., 1997). In the early years of study, they defined loyalty focusing on behavioral concept, behavioral approaches regard customer loyalty as "a tendency to purchase periodically within a certain period of time at specific retail store." But the loyalty of behavioral approaches focuses on only outcome of customer behavior, so there are someone to point the limits that customers' decision-making situation or process were neglected(Enis & Paul, 1970; Raj, 1982; Lee, 2002). So the attitudinal approaches were suggested. The attitudinal approaches consider loyalty contains all the cognitive, emotional, voluntary factors(Oliver, 1997), define the customer loyalty as "friendly behaviors for specific retail stores." However these attitudinal approaches can explain that how the customer loyalty form and change, but cannot say positively whether it is moved to real purchasing in the future or not. This is a kind of shortcoming(Oh, 1995). 3. Research Design 3.1 Research Model Based on the objects of this study, the research model derived is
. 3.2 Hypotheses 3.2.1 The Hypothesis of On-line Service Quality and Overall Service QualityThe relation between on-line service quality and overall service quality I-1. Efficiency of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-2. System availability of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-3. Fulfillment of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-4. Privacy of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. 3.2.2 The Hypothesis of On-line Service Recovery and Overall Service Quality The relation between on-line service recovery and overall service quality II-1. Responsiveness of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. II-2. Compensation of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. II-3. Contact of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. 3.2.3 The Hypothesis of Overall Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction The relation between overall service quality and customer satisfaction III-1. Overall service quality may have a significant effect on customer satisfaction. 3.2.4 The Hypothesis of Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Intention The relation between customer satisfaction and loyalty intention IV-1. Customer satisfaction may have a significant effect on loyalty intention. 3.2.5 The Hypothesis of a Mediation Variable Wolfinbarger & Gilly(2003) and Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhotra(2005) had made clear that each dimension of service quality has a significant effect on overall service quality. Add to this, the authors analyzed empirically that each dimension of on-line service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction. With that viewpoint, this study would examine if overall service quality mediates between on-line service quality and each dimension of customer satisfaction, keeping on looking into the relation between on-line service quality and overall service quality, overall service quality and customer satisfaction. And as this study understands that each dimension of on-line service recovery also has an effect on overall service quality, this would examine if overall service quality also mediates between on-line service recovery and each dimension of customer satisfaction. Therefore these hypotheses followed are set up to examine if overall service quality plays its role as the mediation variable. The relation between on-line service quality and customer satisfaction V-1. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of efficiency of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-2. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of system availability of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-3. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of fulfillment of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-4. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of privacy of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. The relation between on-line service recovery and customer satisfaction VI-1. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of responsiveness of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. VI-2. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of compensation of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. VI-3. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of contact of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. 4. Empirical Analysis 4.1 Research design and the characters of data This empirical study aimed at customers who ever purchased air ticket at the Web sites for reservation and issue. Total 430 questionnaires were distributed, and 400 were collected. After surveying with the final questionnaire, the frequency test was performed about variables of sex, age which is demographic factors for analyzing general characters of sample data. Sex of data is consist of 146 of male(42.7%) and 196 of female(57.3%), so portion of female is a little higher. Age is composed of 11 of 10s(3.2%), 199 of 20s(58.2%), 105 of 30s(30.7%), 22 of 40s(6.4%), 5 of 50s(1.5%). The reason that portions of 20s and 30s are higher can be supposed that they use the Internet frequently and purchase air ticket directly. 4.2 Assessment of measuring scales This study used the internal consistency analysis to measure reliability, and then used the Cronbach' $\alpha$ to assess this. As a result of reliability test, Cronbach'$\alpha$ value of every component shows more than 0.6, it is found that reliance of the measured variables are ensured. After reliability test, the explorative factor analysis was performed. the factor sampling was performed by the Principal Component Analysis(PCA), the factor rotation was performed by the Varimax which is good for verifying mutual independence between factors. By the result of the initial factor analysis, items blocking construct validity were removed, and the result of the final factor analysis performed for verifying construct validity is followed above. 4.3 Hypothesis Testing 4.3.1 Hypothesis Testing by the Regression Analysis(SPSS) 4.3.2 Analysis of Mediation Effect To verify mediation effect of overall service quality ofand , this study used the phased analysis method proposed by Baron & Kenny(1986) generally used. As shows, Step 1 and Step 2 are significant, and mediation variable has a significant effect on dependent variables and so does independent variables at Step 3, too. And there needs to prove the partial mediation effect, independent variable's estimate ability at Step 3(Standardized coefficient
$\beta$ eta : efficiency=.164, system availability=.074, fulfillment=.108, privacy=.107) is smaller than its estimate ability at Step 2(Standardized coefficient$\beta$ eta : efficiency=.409, system availability=.227, fulfillment=.386, privacy=.237), so it was proved that overall service quality played a role as the partial mediation between on-line service quality and satisfaction. Asshows, Step 1 and Step 2 are significant, and mediation variable has a significant effect on dependent variables and so does independent variables at Step 3, too. And there needs to prove the partial mediation effect, independent variable's estimate ability at Step 3(Standardized coefficient
$\beta$ eta : responsiveness=.164, compensation=.117, contact=.113) is smaller than its estimate ability at Step 2(Standardized coefficient$\beta$ eta : responsiveness=.409, compensation=.386, contact=.237), so it was proved that overall service quality played a role as the partial mediation between on-line service recovery and satisfaction. Verified results on the basis of empirical analysis are followed. First, as the result of, it shows that all were chosen, so on-line service quality has a positive effect on overall service quality. Especially fulfillment of overall service quality has the most effect, and then efficiency, system availability, privacy in order. Second, as the result of , it shows that all were chosen, so on-line service recovery has a positive effect on overall service quality. Especially responsiveness of overall service quality has the most effect, and then contact, compensation in order. Third, as the result of and , it shows that and all were chosen, so overall service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction, customer satisfaction has a positive effect on loyalty intention. Fourth, as the result of and , it shows that and all were chosen, so overall service quality plays a role as the partial mediation between on-line service quality and customer satisfaction, on-line service recovery and customer satisfaction. 5. Conclusion This study measured and analyzed service quality and service recovery of the Web sites that customers made a reservation and issued their air tickets, and by improving customer satisfaction through the result, this study put its final goal to grope how to keep loyalty customers. On the basis of the result of empirical analysis, suggestion points of this study are followed. First, this study regarded E-S-QUAL that measures on-line service quality and E-RecS-QUAL that measures on-line service recovery as variables, so it overcame the limit of existing studies that used modified SERVQUAL to measure service quality of the Web sites. Second, it shows that fulfillment and efficiency of on-line service quality have the most significant effect on overall service quality. Therefore the Web sites of reserving and issuing air tickets should try harder to elevate efficiency and fulfillment. Third, privacy of on-line service quality has the least significant effect on overall service quality, but this may be caused by un-assurance of customers whether the Web sites protect safely their confidential information or not. So they need to notify customers of this fact clearly. Fourth, there are many cases that customers don't recognize the importance of on-line service recovery, but if they would think that On-line service recovery has an effect on customer satisfaction and loyalty intention, as its importance is very significant they should prepare for that. Fifth, because overall service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction and loyalty intention, they should try harder to elevate service quality and service recovery of the Web sites of reserving and issuing air tickets to maximize customer satisfaction and to secure loyalty customers. Sixth, it is found that overall service quality plays a role as the partial mediation, but now there are rarely existing studies about this, so there need to be more studies about this. The Behaviors of Phosphorus-32 and Ptoassium-42 under the Control of Thermoperiod and Potassium Level (가리(加里)와 온도주기성(溫度週期性)이 고구마 생육(生育) 및 인(燐)-32, 가리(加里)-42 동태(動態)에 미치는 영향(影響))
- Kim, Y.C.
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- Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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- v.1 no.1
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- pp.89-115
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- 1968
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1. The experiment was carried out for investigating the interaction between potassium nutrition and thermoperiod (as an environment regulating factor) in relation to behaviors of several nutrients including phosphorus-32 and Potassium-42 in IPOMOEA BATAS. 2. To obtain same condition to trace the behaviors of phosphorus and potassum-42 they were simultaneously incorporated to roots. The determination of each CPM by counting twice with adequate interval and calculating true CPM of each isotope according to different half-life, was carried out with satisfactory. 3. Some specific symptoms i.e, chlorosis and withering of growing point under the condition of lower potassium level were found and was accelerated by the low night temperature. 4. A manganese shortage in growing point of the lower potassium level was found by activiation analysis and very low distribution ratio of phosphorus-32 and potassium-42 in the growing point of the lower potassium level was manifested, though the contents of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, sodium and magnesium were not in great difference. 5. In addition to the low water content with appearence of "hard", shorterning internode and lower ratio of roots to shoot as well as the symptoms of potassium deficiency such as brown spot in leaf blade and necrosis of leaf margin were appeared at later stage of experiment at the lower potassium level. 6. Very stimulating vegetative growth, e.g, large plant length, leaf expansion, increasing node number and fresh weight as well as high ratio of roots to shoot, high water content was resulted in the condition of higher potassium level. 7. A specific interaction between higher potassium level and thermoperiod was found, that is, the largest tuber production and the largest ratio of roots to shoot were resulted in the combined condition of higher potassium level and constant temperature while the largest plant length, fresh weight etc. i.e. the most stimulative vegetative growth was resulted in the combined condition of higher potassium level and low night temperature. 8. Comparatively low water content in the former condition of stimulative tuber production was resulted(especially at the tuber thickening stage), while high water content in the latter condition of stimulative vegetation was resulted though the higher potassium level made generally high water contents. 9. The nitrogen contents of soluble and insoluble did not make distinct difference between the lower and higher potassium level. 10. Though the phosphorus contents were not distinctly different by the potassium level, the lower potassium level made the percentage of phosphorus increased at tuber forming stage accumulating more phosphorus in roots, while the higher potassium level decreased percentage of phosphorus at that stage. 11. The higher potassium level made distinctly high potassium contents than the lower potassium level and increased contents at the tuber forming stage through both conditions. 12. The sodium contents were low in the condition of higher potassium level than the lower potassium level and decreased at tuber forming stage in both conditions, on the contary of potassium. 13. Except the noticeable deficeney of manganese in the growing point of the lower potassium level, mangense and magnesium contents in other organs did not make distinct difference according to the potassium level. 14. Generally more uptake and large absorption rate of phosphorus-32 and potassium-42 were resulted at the higher potassium level, and the most uptake, and the largest absorption rate of phosphorus and potassium-42 (especially potassium-42 at tuber forming stage) were resulted in the condition of higher potassium level and constant temperature which made the highest tuber production. 15. The higher potassium level stimulated the translocation of phoshorus-32 and potassium-42 from roots to shoots while the lower potassium level suppressed or blocked the translocation. 16. Therefore, very large distribution rate of
$p^{32}$ ,$K^{42}$ in shoot, especially, in growing point, compared with roots was resulted in the higher potassium level. 17. The lower potassium level suppressed the translocation of phosporus-32 from roots to shoot more than that of potassium-42. 18. The uptake of potassium-42 and translocation in IPOMOEA BATATAS were more vivid than phosphorus-32. 19. A specific interaction between potassium nutrition and thermoperiod which resulted the largest tuber production etc. was discussed in relation to behaviors of minerals and potasium-42 etc. 20. Also, the specific effect of the lower and higher potassium level on the growth pattern of IPOMOEA BATATAS were discussed in relation to behaviors of minerals and isotopes. 21. An emphasize on the significance of the higher potassium level as well as the interaction with the regulating factor and problem of potassium level (gradient) for crops product ion were discussed from the point of dynamical and variable function of potassium.
An Empirical Study on Influencing Factors of Switching Intention from Online Shopping to Webrooming (온라인 쇼핑에서 웹루밍으로의 쇼핑전환 의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 연구)
- Choi, Hyun-Seung;Yang, Sung-Byung
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.22 no.1
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- pp.19-41
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- 2016
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Recently, the proliferation of mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet personal computers and the development of information communication technologies (ICT) have led to a big trend of a shift from single-channel shopping to multi-channel shopping. With the emergence of a "smart" group of consumers who want to shop in more reasonable and convenient ways, the boundaries apparently dividing online and offline shopping have collapsed and blurred more than ever before. Thus, there is now fierce competition between online and offline channels. Ever since the emergence of online shopping, a major type of multi-channel shopping has been "showrooming," where consumers visit offline stores to examine products before buying them online. However, because of the growing use of smart devices and the counterattack of offline retailers represented by omni-channel marketing strategies, one of the latest huge trends of shopping is "webrooming," where consumers visit online stores to examine products before buying them offline. This has become a threat to online retailers. In this situation, although it is very important to examine the influencing factors for switching from online shopping to webrooming, most prior studies have mainly focused on a single- or multi-channel shopping pattern. Therefore, this study thoroughly investigated the influencing factors on customers switching from online shopping to webrooming in terms of both the "search" and "purchase" processes through the application of a push-pull-mooring (PPM) framework. In order to test the research model, 280 individual samples were gathered from undergraduate and graduate students who had actual experience with webrooming. The results of the structural equation model (SEM) test revealed that the "pull" effect is strongest on the webrooming intention rather than the "push" or "mooring" effects. This proves a significant relationship between "attractiveness of webrooming" and "webrooming intention." In addition, the results showed that both the "perceived risk of online search" and "perceived risk of online purchase" significantly affect "distrust of online shopping." Similarly, both "perceived benefit of multi-channel search" and "perceived benefit of offline purchase" were found to have significant effects on "attractiveness of webrooming" were also found. Furthermore, the results indicated that "online purchase habit" is the only influencing factor that leads to "online shopping lock-in." The theoretical implications of the study are as follows. First, by examining the multi-channel shopping phenomenon from the perspective of "shopping switching" from online shopping to webrooming, this study complements the limits of the "channel switching" perspective, represented by multi-channel freeriding studies that merely focused on customers' channel switching behaviors from one to another. While extant studies with a channel switching perspective have focused on only one type of multi-channel shopping, where consumers just move from one particular channel to different channels, a study with a shopping switching perspective has the advantage of comprehensively investigating how consumers choose and navigate among diverse types of single- or multi-channel shopping alternatives. In this study, only limited shopping switching behavior from online shopping to webrooming was examined; however, the results should explain various phenomena in a more comprehensive manner from the perspective of shopping switching. Second, this study extends the scope of application of the push-pull-mooring framework, which is quite commonly used in marketing research to explain consumers' product switching behaviors. Through the application of this framework, it is hoped that more diverse shopping switching behaviors can be examined in future research. This study can serve a stepping stone for future studies. One of the most important practical implications of the study is that it may help single- and multi-channel retailers develop more specific customer strategies by revealing the influencing factors of webrooming intention from online shopping. For example, online single-channel retailers can ease the distrust of online shopping to prevent consumers from churning by reducing the perceived risk in terms of online search and purchase. On the other hand, offline retailers can develop specific strategies to increase the attractiveness of webrooming by letting customers perceive the benefits of multi-channel search or offline purchase. Although this study focused only on customers switching from online shopping to webrooming, the results can be expanded to various types of shopping switching behaviors embedded in single- and multi-channel shopping environments, such as showrooming and mobile shopping.
The Variation of the Dissolved Inorganic Nutrients in the Costal Area of Gunsan, Yellow Sea from 2001 to 2010 (서해 군산 연안의 2001년부터 2010년까지의 용존성무기영양염류의 변동)
- Heo, Seung;Kweon, Jung-Ro;Park, Jong-Soo
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- Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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- v.17 no.4
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- pp.357-365
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- 2011
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The variation of the dissolved inorganic nutrients were investigated four times per year in the costal area of Gunsan, Yellow Sea from 2001 to 2010. Water samples were collected at 10 stations and phsico-chemical parameters were analyzed including water temperature, salinity, suspended solids, dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll a and dissolved inorganic nutrients. The average of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) for ten years at Gunsan area showed similar concentration between surface and bottom. The average of DIN at surface was 0.421mg/L (0.198~0.846mg/L) and bottom was 0.344mg/L(0.148~0.717mg/L). The highest value of annual average of DIN at surface was 0.846mg/L in 2002 and the lowest value was 0.198mg/L in 2010. The percentage of ammonia, nitrite and nitrate for the average DIN of 10 years showed 27%, 3% and 70% which showed most of DIN was nitrate. Dissolved inorganic phosphate(DIP) for ten years at Gunsan area showed similar concentration between surface and bottom and DIP was decreasing from 2003 to 2010. The average of DIP of 10 years was 0.024mg/L and annual average 0.021mg/L in 2008, 0.007mg/L in 2009 and 0.008mg/L in 2010 which showed decreasing pattern from 2007 to 2010. The average of DIN/DIP ratio from 2002 to 2010 was 6.0(3.2~10.1) at surface and 4.6(2.6~7.0) at bottom. The average value of dissolved inorganic silicate from 2004 to 2010 showed 0.372mg/L at surface layer and 0.352mg/L at bottom layer and was on decreased from 2006 to 2010. The Spearman's correlation analysis was carried out to knowrelation among the salinity and dissolved inorganic nutrients at the surface and bottom layer. The correlation factor of DIN was -0.72, DIP was -0.46 and dissolved inorganic silicate was -0.63 at surface layer and DIN was -0.70, DIP was -0.44 and dissolved inorganic silicate was -0.57 at bottom layer. The dissolved inorganic nutrients at the nearshore of Gunsan was affected from the freshwater discharge of Geum river. Especially, a lot of DIN flowed into the nearshore of Gunsan from Guem river. The concentration of dissolved inorganic nutrients at Gunsan showed high at station 1, 2 and 3 and there was a little concentration differences according to the cruise time. The concentration of dissolved inorganic nutrients showed high value at the station 1, 2, 3 which exist nearshore of Gunsan city and it means these stations mainly affected by Geum river and Gunsan city. The annual average of dissolved inorganic nutrients showed gradually decreased from 2003 to 2010 and we need more research on this conditions.
Performance Improvement on Short Volatility Strategy with Asymmetric Spillover Effect and SVM (비대칭적 전이효과와 SVM을 이용한 변동성 매도전략의 수익성 개선)
- Kim, Sun Woong
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.26 no.1
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- pp.119-133
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- 2020
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Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.
The Expression of Adhesion Molecules on BAL Cells and Serum Soluble ICAM-1 Level after the Radiotherapy for the Lung Cancer and Its Relationship to the Development of of Radiation Pneumonitis and Fibrosis (방사선 치료후 기관지-폐포세척액내 폐포대식세포 및 임파구의 접착분자발현 변화와 방사선에 의한 폐렴 및 폐섬유증발생의 예측인자로서의 의의)
- Kim, Dong-Soon;Paik, Sang-Hoon;Choi, Eun-Kyung;Chang, Hye-Sook;Choi, Jung-Eun;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Yun-Suck;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Won-Dong
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- Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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- v.43 no.1
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- pp.75-87
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- 1996
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Background: Lung cancer is the second most frequent malignancy in man in Korea. Surgery is the best treatment modality for non-small cell lung cancer, but most patients were presented in far advanced stage. So radiation therapy(RT) with or without chemotherapy is the next choice and radiation-induced pneumonitis and pulmonary fibrosis is the major limiting factor for the curative RT. Radiation pneumonitis is manifested with fever, cough and dyspnea, 2~3 months after the termination of radiotherpy. Chest X ray shows infiltration, typically limited to the radiation field, but occasionally bilateral infiltration was reported. Also Gibson et al reported that BAL lymphocytosis was found in both lungs, even though the radiation was confined to one lung. The aim of this study is to investigate the change of adhesion molecules expression on BAL cells and serum soluble ICAM-1(sICAM-1) level after the RT and its relationship to the development of radiation pneumonitis. The second aim is to confirm the bilaterality of change of BAL cell pattern and adhesion molecule expression. Subjects: BAL and the measurement of sICAM level in serum and BALF were done on 29 patients with lung cancer who received RT with curative intention. The BAL was done before the RT in 16 patients and 1~2 month after RT in 18 patients. 5 patients performed BAL before and after RT. Result: Clinically significant radiation pneumonitis developed in 7 patients. After RT, total cell count in BAL was significantly increased from
$(20.2{\pm}10.2){\times}10^6\;cells/ml$ to$(35.3{\pm}21.6){\times}10^6\;cells/ml$ (p=0.0344) and %lymphocyte was also increased from$5.3{\pm}4.2%$ to$39.6{\pm}23.4%$ (p=0.0001) in all patient group. There was no difference between ipsilateral and contraleteral side to RT, and between the patients with and without radiation-pneumonitis. In whole patient group, the level of sICAM-1 showed no significant change after RT(in serum:$378{\pm}148$ ,$411{\pm}150\;ng/ml$ , BALF:$20.2{\pm}12.2$ ,$45.1{\pm}34.8\;ng/ml$ , respectively), but there was a significant difference between the patients with pneumonitis and without pneumonitis (serum:$505{\pm}164$ vs$345{\pm}102\;ng/ml$ , p=0.0253, BALF:$67.9{\pm}36.3$ vs$25.2{\pm}17.9\;ng/ml$ , p=0.0112). The expression of ICAM-1 on alveolar macrophages (AM) tends to increase after RT (RMFI: from$1.28{\pm}0.479$ to$1.63{\pm}0.539$ , p=0.0605), but it was significantly high in patients with pneumonitis ($2.10{\pm}0.390$ ) compared to the patients without pneumonitis ($1.28{\pm}0.31$ , p=0.0002). ICAM-1 expression on lymphocytes and CD 18 (${\beta}2$ -integrin) expression tended to be high in the patients with pneumonitis but the difference was statiastically not significant. Conclusion: Subclinical alveolitis on the basis of BAL finding developed bilaterally in all patients after RT. But clinically significant pneumonitis occurred in much smaller fraction and the ICAM-1 expression on AM and the sICAM-1 level in serum were good indicator of it.
Effects of Adjuvant Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy Following Curative Surgery in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer (국소 진행된 직장암에서 근치적 절제술 후 방사선치료와 항암화학요법과의 병용치료에 대한 효과)
- Kang, Ki-Mun;Choi, Ihl-Bohng;Kim, In-Ah;Jang, Jee-Young;Shin, Kyung-Sub;Jang, Suck-Kyun;Lee, Jae-Hak;Kim, Young-Ha;Won, Chong-Man;Choi, Dong-Hwan;Kim, Jin-Seung;Park, Shinn-Hee
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- Radiation Oncology Journal
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- v.15 no.2
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- pp.121-128
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- 1997
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Purpose : To evaluate the effect of postoperative adjuvant radiation therapy and chemotherapy on the survival, pattern of failure and complication for locally advanced rectal carcinoma Materials and Methods : From October 1992 to September 1995, twenty eight patients with rectal carcinoma were treated by postoperative adjuvant radiation therapy and chemotherapy Radiation therapy was delivered with 6MV and 15MV linear accelerator, 180c0y fractions 5 day per week. Total radiation doses were 5040cGy in
$B_{2+3}$ and 5580cGy in$C_{2+3}$ . Within 4 weeks after radical surgery. 5-FU$(400mg/m^2/day)\;and\;Leucovorin(20mg/m^2/day)$ were administered by intravenous injection for 4 days during the first and fifth week of radiation therapy. The median follow up was 19 months with a range 2 to 47 months. Results : The 2 year overall survival and disease free survival rates were$78.6\%\;and\;70.8\%$ , respectively. The 2 year overall survival was$93.0\%\;in\;B_{2+3}$ and$76.2\%\;in\;C_{2+3}$ (p=0.11) The 2 year disease free survival was$79.4\%\;in\;B_{2+3}\;and\;69.2\%\;in\;C_{2+3}(p=0.13)$ . The overall failure rate was$21.42\%$ (6/28) including$10.72\%$ (3/28) locoregional recurrence,$3.62\%$ (1/28) distant metastasis and$7.12\%$ (2/28) locoregional recurrence with distant metastasis. The overall locoregional recurrence rate was$17.92\%$ (5/28). The 2 year locoregional recurrence rates were$13.32\%(2/15)\;and\;23.12\%$ (3/13) for respectively for$B_{2+3}\;and\;C_{2+3}$ The difference between the locoregional recurrence of$B_{2+3}\;and\;C_{2+3}$ patients was not significant(p=0.07). Complications developed in 13 patients$(46.42\%)$ , including 8 dermatitis, 7 loose stool, 6 leukopenia, 4 tenesmus, 2 diarrhea. In Univariate analysis, there was no statistically significant factor except for tumor grade in locoregional recurrence, disease free survival and overall survival rate(p=0.04, 0.05, 0.04). Conclusion : This study sugges1s that postoperative adjuvant radiation therapy and chemotherapy is effective in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Therefore these results need to be confirmed with a long term follow-up and larger number of patients with the further clinical trials including prospective controlled studies.
Characteristics of Spatio-temporal Variation of the Water Quality in the Lower Keum River (금강 하류역에서 수질의 시공간적 변화특성)
- YANG Han-Soeb;KIM Seong-Soo
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- Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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- v.23 no.3
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- pp.225-237
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- 1990
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Various chemical constituents were measured from April to August 1988 at the down-ward 20 stations of Keum River, which is located in the Midwest of Korea, to understand the characteristics of water quality with respect to spatio-temporal variations of each constituent. The 24-hrs continuous measurements with 2-hrs interval were made simultaneously at station 2 near the estuary weir and station 9(Ganggyeong) of 35 km upstream from the weir in April. By the results observed for one day in April at station 2, salinity has a range of
$7.88\~22.14\%_{\circ}$ and its temporal variability is identical to the pattern of tidal cycle in the neigh-bouring Kunsan Harbor. However, turbidity shows relatively high values only at an interval of 4~5 hours after the lowest salinity time, though hourly fluctuation of pH is very small. Silicate and dissolved inorganic nitrogen have inversively linear correlationships with salinity, implying the concentration of the two nutrients strongly regulated by estuarine mixing of sea and river waters. In contrast, phosphate sustains roughly a constant level over a wide salinity range and distinctly lower values than those corresponding to nitrate in the oceans. Such distributions of phosphate have been observed in some estuaries, and interpreted as driven by removal of dissolved phosphate into bottom sediments and the bufforing of phosphate by particulate matter. COD values at station 2 are relatively high in day-time(particularly afternoon) and in high-salinity periods. At station 9, saltwater intrusion was never found but water level changed to the extent of 2.5 m for one day. Although each parameter at this station exhibits very slight variations in their abundance for 24 hours compared with station 2, the contents of COD, silicate and ammonia are significantly higher than at station 2. Concentration of suspended matter is relatively high in the brackish water region up to$\~20$ km above the river mouth, probably due to strong tidal stirring of the bottom de-posits. Also, relatively high pH, COD and$O_2$ saturation at the upward stations of$40\~50$ km from the weir are presumably attributable to active photosynthesis of plants in the region. In general, COD and nutrients except phosphate are higher values at the upper stations than in the estuary zone, and show the highest abundances in July nearly at all stations. Finally, in the estuarine region tidal mixing of sea-river waters seems to be an important factor controlling the distributions of turbidity, COD, silicate and nitrate as well as salinity. However, water quality in the upward fresh-water zone is remarkably variable according to months or seasons.
The Role of c-Jun N-terminal Kinase in the Radiation-Induced Lung Fibrosis (방사선에 의한 폐 섬유화증에서 c-Jun N-terminal Kinase(JNK)의 역할)
- Uh, Soo-Taek;Hong, Ki-Young;Lee, Young-Mok;Kim, Ki-Up;Kim, Do-Jin;Moon, Seung-Hyuk;Kim, Yong-Hoon;Park, Choon-Sik;Yeom, Uk;Kim, Eun-Suk;Choi, Doo-Ho
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- Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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- v.50 no.4
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- pp.450-461
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- 2001
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Background : The underlying pathogenesis of radiation-induced lung fibrosis (RTLF) has not been very well defined. However, the role of TGF-
$\beta$ in the generation of RTLF has been a major focus because there is an increase in the expression of both the TGF-${\beta}m$ -RNA and its protein preceding RTLF lesions. The down stream signal after a TGF-$\beta$ stimulated lung fibrosis includes the activation of many mediators such as Smad and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) through TAK1. It is we hypothesized that JNK activation may play a pivotal role in RTLF pathogenesis through increased transcription of the fibrogenic cytokines. The present study evaluates JNK activity in alveolar macrophages after irradiation and the relationship between JNK activity and the amount of collagen in the lung tissues. Methods : C57BL/6 mice(20-25 gr, males) received chlorotetracycline(2g/L) in their drinking water 1 week prior to irradiation and continuously there after. The mice were irradiated once with 1400 cGy of$60CO{\gamma}$ -ray over the whole chest. The cellular composition of the whole lung bronchoalveoalr lavage fluids(BALF), elastin expression in the lung tissues, the level of hydroxyproline in lung tissues, and an in vitro JNK assay was measured before irradiation and one, four, and eight weeks after irradiation (RT). Results : The volumes of BALF retrieved from instilled 4 mL of saline with 2% heparin were 3.7-3.8 mL for each group. The cell numbers were similar before($4.1{\times}10^4{\pm}0.5{\times}10^4/mL$ ) and 1 week($3.1{\times}10^4{\pm}0.5{\times}10^4/mL$ ) after RT. At four and eight weeks after RT, the cell number reached to$14.0{\times}10^4{\pm}1.5{\times}10^4mL$ and$10.0{\times}10^4{\pm}1.3{\times}10^4/mL$ , respectively. There we no changes in the lymphocytes and neutrophils population observed in the BALF after RT. The H-E stain of the lung tissues did not show any structural and fibrotic change in the lung tissues at 4 and 8 weeks after RT. In addition, the amount of elastin and collagen were not different on Verhoeff staining of the lung tissues before RT to eight weeks after RT. The hydroxyproine content was measured with the left lung dissected from the left main bronchus. The lung were homogenized and hydrolyzed with 6 N Hel for 12 hours at$110^{\circ}C$ then measured as previously described. The content of hydroxyproline, standardized with a lung protein concentration, reached a peak 4 weeks after RT, and thereafter showed a plateau. AnIn vitro JNK assay using c-$Jun_{1-79}$ -GST sepharose beads were performed with the alveolar macrophages obtained from the BAL. JNK activity was not detected prior to RT, However, the JNK activity increased from one week after RT and reached a peak four weeks after RT. Conclusion : JNK may be involved in the pathogenesis because the JNK activity showed similar pattern observed with the hydroxyproine content. However, it is necessary to clarify that the JNK increases the transcription of fibrogenic cyiokines through the transcription factor.
Usefulness of Gated RapidArc Radiation Therapy Patient evaluation and applied with the Amplitude mode (호흡 동조 체적 세기조절 회전 방사선치료의 유용성 평가와 진폭모드를 이용한 환자적용)
- Kim, Sung Ki;Lim, Hhyun Sil;Kim, Wan Sun
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- The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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- v.26 no.1
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- pp.29-35
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- 2014
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Purpose : This study has already started commercial Gated RapidArc automation equipment which was not previously in the Gated radiation therapy can be performed simultaneously with the VMAT Gated RapidArc radiation therapy to the accuracy of the analysis to evaluate the usability, Amplitude mode applied to the patient. Materials and Methods : The analysis of the distribution of radiation dose equivalent quality solid water phantom and GafChromic film was used Film QA film analysis program using the Gamma factor (3%, 3 mm). Three-dimensional dose distribution in order to check the accuracy of Matrixx dosimetry equipment and Compass was used for dose analysis program. Periodic breathing synchronized with solid phantom signals Phantom 4D Phantom and Varian RPM was created by breathing synchronized system, free breathing and breath holding at each of the dose distribution was analyzed. In order to apply to four patients from February 2013 to August 2013 with liver cancer targets enough to get a picture of 4DCT respiratory cycle and then patients are pratice to meet patient's breathing cycle phase mode using the patient eye goggles to see the pattern of the respiratory cycle to be able to follow exactly in a while 4DCT images were acquired. Gated RapidArc treatment Amplitude mode in order to create the breathing cycle breathing performed three times, and then at intervals of 40% to 60% 5-6 seconds and breathing exercises that can not stand (Fig. 5), 40% While they are treated 60% in the interval Beam On hold your breath when you press the button in a way that was treated with semi-automatic. Results : Non-respiratory and respiratory rotational intensity modulated radiation therapy technique absolute calculation dose of using computerized treatment plan were shown a difference of less than 1%, the difference between treatment technique was also less than 1%. Gamma (3%, 3 mm) and showed 99% agreement, each organ-specific dose difference were generally greater than 95% agreement. The rotational intensity modulated radiation therapy, respiratory synchronized to the respiratory cycle created Amplitude mode and the actual patient's breathing cycle could be seen that a good agreement. Conclusion : When you are treated Non-respiratory and respiratory method between volumetric intensity modulated radiation therapy rotation of the absolute dose and dose distribution showed a very good agreement. This breathing technique tuning volumetric intensity modulated radiation therapy using a rotary moving along the thoracic or abdominal breathing can be applied to the treatment of tumors is considered. The actual treatment of patients through the goggles of the respiratory cycle to create Amplitude mode Gated RapidArc treatment equipment that does not automatically apply to the results about 5-6 seconds stopped breathing in breathing synchronized rotary volumetric intensity modulated radiation therapy facilitate could see complement.
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