• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.157-172
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• 2020

Purpose - This research empirically proves the extent to which export insurance promotes Korean exports to research object countries among New Southern countries. The outcome of this research will present implications for the operations of export insurance for exports to these countries. Design/methodology - For the empirical analysis, the export equation was composed using a basic gravity model. Based on this, the determinants of Korea's exports to research object countries were analyzed. In this study, a panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted. As a result of the panel unit root test, it was confirmed that the variables of the panel data are not belonging to I(0), but to I(1). As a result of the panel cointegration test, it was established that there are long-term stable relationships among all variables. Accordingly, the gravity model was estimated using original data in order to reduce the information loss caused by the first difference, in spite of individual data belonging to I(1). Findings - For the estimated results of panel OLS, the estimated coefficient of short-term export insurance was 0.56-0.64, with statistically significant results at the significance level of 1%. In addition, for the analysis results of the random effect model, the estimated coefficient of short-term export insurance was 0.59-0.64%, with a statistically significant result at the 1% significance level. This could indicate that Korean export insurance has positive influences on export promotion to New Southern countries. Originality/value - The research implies that export insurance has a 4.1 to 4.7 multiplier effect in expanding exports to the New Southern countries for Korea. This research has intensively analyzed the effects of export insurance on the promotion of exports to a selected area by a government foreign economic policy, which is the originality and value of this paper.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 7th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Summit Forum on Sustainable Construction and Management
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• pp.62-72
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• 2017

In this study, liner unit root tests and panel unit root tests to the ratio of city to regional house price were applied to examine the ripple effects across 28 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region. Then invert LM unit root tests with two structural breaks for 10 representative cities were conducted. The results showed that there is overwhelming evidence of the existence of ripple effect in the Yangtze River Delta region, while segmentation is restricted to a small group of cities in which there is no long-run relationship with the Yangtze River Delta region average; compared to no- and one-break case, there is overwhelming evidence of a ripple effect with the LM test with two structural breaks. Furthermore, the results of the Granger causality test showed that changes in house prices in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou have led to changes in house prices in other cities. The findings of this research make certain contributions to the improvements of research system of ripple effect among regional house prices in the Yangtze River Delta Region,and could be referenced by other markets of other cities.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.201-219
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• 2017

This paper analyzes the economic effects of the S&T Innovation, R&D, human resources and investment on the economic growth using 18 countries. We have obtained the somewhat mixed results on the existence of unit root roots in variables. While most of Pedroni cointegration tests show that there are no panel cointegration among the variables, Kao cointegration test shows that there is the panel cointegration among the variables such as GDP, human capital, R&D investment and patent. Kao cointegration test result shows that human capital, R&D investment, patent economic growth seem to have the panel cointegration or the long-run relationship among them as a whole. The estimation results of individual OLS and panel estimation show that the human capital, R&D investment and technology innovation or patent had positively significant effects on economic growth or GDP.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.99-109
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• 2021

This study aims to examine the causal links between the fiscal components, i.e., government expenditures (GE) and government revenues (GR), and their impact on the economic growth of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. This analysis considered secondary panel data from 1990 to 2019 at an annual frequency. The data is obtained from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank Database. A panel cointegration and panel DH causality (Dumitrescu and Hurlin) approach was employed on financial data at an annual frequency from 1990 to 2019. The findings from panel unit root and panel cointegration tests demonstrate that, at first, all the variables are stationary and cointegrated. The panel ARDL disclosed that GE has a long-run connection with GDP, is significantly and positively associated with economic growth in the long run, whereas GR is significant in the short run. The contribution of GE is high in sustaining economic growth as compared to GR. Also, cointegration regression disclosed that GE is more sensitive toward GDP, while GR is less elastic. Lastly, the findings reveal that bidirectional causality exists between GE and GR variables. These results have policy implications for sustainable economic growth in the ASEAN region.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.173-183
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• 2022

The objective of this research is to examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets in a few developing and developed countries. This study uses daily data from January 2020 to May 2021 and obtained from World Health Organization and Thomson Reuters. The secondary data was evaluated through panel econometric methodology that includes different unit root tests, and to analyze the long-run relationship between variables, panel cointegration techniques were applied. The long-run causality among variables was examined through Panel Vector Error Correction Model. The overall findings of this study suggest a long-run association exists between several cases and death with the stock returns of the GCC and other stock markets. Furthermore, the VECM model also identified a long-run causality running from COVID cases and death towards the stock rerun of both sets of stock markets. However, a subsequent Wald test yielded mixed results, indicating no short-run causality between cases and deaths and stock returns in both groups; however, in the case of GCC, several COVID-19 cases are having a causal impact on stock markets, which is notable in light of the fact that the death rate in GCC is significantly lower than in many developed and developing countries.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.27-43
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• 2020

Purpose - This study explores the impact of the real estate industry on related industries for the perspective of Chinese steel companies. Design/methodology/approach - The impact of housing prices on the 41 listed steel companies' performance was analyzed by using the panel data model. We used two kinds of housing price indexes that are set in the panel data models to estimate the range of the real estate market, driving the performance growth of steel listed companies. Moreover, the net profit of steel companies is used as the dependent variable. To test the stability of the model, ROA used as a dependent variable for the robustness test. Also, to avoid the time trend of housing prices, this paper selects the growth rate of housing prices as the primary research variable. After Fisher-type testings, there is no unit root problem in both independent and dependent variables. Findings - The results indicated that the rise in the housing price has a positive influence on the steel company performance. When the housing price increases by 1%, the net profit of steel enterprises will increase by 5 to 20 million yuan. Research implications or Originality - In this paper, empirical data at the micro-level and panel model are used to quantify China's real estate industry's driving effect on the iron and steel industry, providing evidence from the microdata level. It helps us to understand further the status and role of China's real estate industry in the economic structure.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.705-714
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• 2020

This study aims to investigate the main factors that affected the government health expenditures in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait), during the period from 2005 to 2019. The study employs a panel data technique in order to monitor the pooled determinant variables of healthcare expenditures in these countries. The study's results indicate, by using FMOLS approach for panel data, that the average healthcare expenditures per capita in GCC countries have a positive and a significant relationship with the government revenues, the size of the population, and the governments' public debt. The positive and the significant relationships of governments' public debt may be explained even if the governments of the GCC countries suffer from a budget deficit; the GCC countries continue to increase the healthcare expenditure. The study suggests that the policymakers of the GCC countries must take into consideration those variables when they develop their healthcare policies. Also, the GCC countries urgently need to have high levels of foreign exchange reserves to maintain the expected level of spending on the healthcare sector, because their public revenues depend mainly on the oil revenues, which are fluctuating continuously.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권11호
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• pp.41-46
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between unemployment and shadow economy for 7 selected ASEAN countries using panel data from 2000-2017. This study uses a sample of 7 ASEAN countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam covering the 2000-2017 period. The stationarity of the variables is determined by Pesaran panel unit-root tests. The Westerlund panel co-integration technique is used to examine the long-run relationship among the variables. In addition, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) methods are also employed. The DOLS and FMOLS results indicate that unemployment acts as an important driver for the increase in the shadow economy. In addition, the study results also reveal that GDP per capita has a negative impact on the shadow economy. Moreover, government expenditure, bank credit, and inflation are positively related to the shadow economy. The empirical results indicate that the size of the shadow economy is boosted by unemployment in the selected ASEAN economies. In addition, it is also evident that an increase of GDP per capita in the sample countries results in a lower shadow economy. Besides, government expenditure, bank credit, and inflation play a crucial role in the shadow economy.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.3-27
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• 2012

본 연구는 패널 공적분 검정 그리고 비교적 최근에 개발된 패널 단위근 검정을 이용하여 지역 주택가격과 지역총생산 간의 장기관계를 분석하였다. 횡단면 의존성(cross-section dependence)이 확인된 경우, 이를 고려한 Pesaran의 CIPS 패널 단위근 검정을 이용하였다. 기존 패널 단위근 검정의 결과와 다르게 CIPS 검정은 변수들이 불안정성을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 패널 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 이용하여 변수들 간의 인과관계를 확인하였으며, 고정효과모형(Fixed effect)과 패널 자기회귀시차(ARDL)모형을 이용하여 계수들의 장기관계를 구체적으로 추정하였다. 먼저 변수들 간에 공적분관계가 형성되며 장 단기 인과관계가 성립하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 VECM 모형의 오차수정항은 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타나 변수들 간의 장기 공적분 관계를 뒷받침하고 있다. 모형의 추정 결과, 장기적으로 주택가격의 상승은 지역총생산을 증가시키며 반대의 관계도 성립함을 알 수 있다. 이 결과에 의해 우리나라 지역 주택시장에서 부의 효과(wealth effect)가 존재하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과들과 함께 오차수정항으로부터, 주택 가격과 경제 변수들은 단기적으로는 일시적인 균형상태로부터 이탈될 수 있지만, 장기적으로는 이들 변수는 균형관계에 있다는 것을 의미한다.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.217-240
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• 2015

본 논문은 28개 국가에 제공한 공적개발원조(ODA)와 원조 수원국의 무역개방이 우리나라 수출에 미친 영향에 중점을 두고 분석하였다. 본 연구는 2005~2012년 기간의 패널자료를 가지고 원조 수원국의 경제규모(1인당 GDP), 무역개방(trade openness), 인구수, 원조 공여국의 공적개발원조(ODA) 규모, 원조 공여국과 수원국간의 거리(distance) 등의 변수를 포함하여 모형을 구축하였다. 또한 원조 수원국을 아시아, 아프리카, 아메리카 등 3개 지역으로 구분하여 이들 지역에 제공한 원조가 우리나라 수출에 미친 영향도 분석하였다. 모형의 적합성을 판단하기 위해 패널 단위근과 패널 공적분 검정을 실시하였으며, 이를 토대로 panel OLS, panel GLM, panel EGLS 등의 추정방법을 이용하였다. 분석결과에 따르면, 원조 수원국의 경제규모, 인구수, 무역개방과 우리나라의 공적개발원조(ODA)는 우리나라 수출 증가에 긍정적이며 통계적으로도 유의한 영향을 준 것으로 나타났다. 반면에 거리변수는 수출증가에 부정적이며 통계적으로도 유의한 영향을 준 것으로 나타났다. 더미변수를 이용한 경우, 아프리카와 아메리카 지역에 대한 원조는 각각 5%와 10% 유의수준에서 우리나라 수출증가에 부정적인 영향을 준 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 아프리카에 대한 원조 규모가 최근에 증가하는 추세를 고려할 때 이 지역에 대한 원조가 우리나라 수출을 증진시킬 수 있는 방안들을 우선적으로 모색해야 한다. 또한 아프리카와 아메리카 지역에 대한 원조가 우리나라 수출시장의 확대보다는 자원의 확보와 개발에 중점을 두었는지에 대한 향후 연구도 필요하다.