• Title/Summary/Keyword: Panel Models

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Outbound Air Travel Demand Forecasting Model with Unobserved Regional Characteristics (미관찰 지역 특성을 고려한 내국인 국제선 항공수요 추정 모형)

  • YU, Jeong Whon;CHOI, Jung Yoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2018
  • In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

A simple panel zone model for linear analysis of steel moment frames

  • Saffari, Hamed;Morshedi, Esmaeil
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.579-598
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    • 2020
  • Consideration of the panel zone (PZ) deformations in the analysis of steel moment frames (SMFs) has a substantial effect on structural response. One way to include the PZ effect on the structural response is Krawinkler's PZ model, which is one of the best and conventional models. However, modeling of Krawinkler's PZ model has its complexity, and finding an alternative procedure for PZ modeling is of interest. In this study, an efficient model is proposed to simplify Krawinkler's PZ model into an Adjusted Rigid-End Zone (AREZ). In this way, the rigid-end-zone dimensions of the beam and column elements are defined through an appropriate rigid-end-zone factor. The dimensions of this region depend on the PZ stiffness, beam(s) and columns' specifications, and connection joint configuration. Thus, to obtain a relationship for the AREZ model, which yields the dimensions of the rigid-end zone, the story drift of an SMF with Krawinkler's PZ model is equalized with the story drift of the same structure with the AREZ model. Then, the degree of accuracy of the resulting relationship is examined in several connections of generic SMFs. Also, in order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model in SMFs, several SMFs ranging from 3- to 30-story representing low- to high-rise buildings are examined through linear static and dynamic time history analysis. Furthermore, non-linear dynamic analyses of three SMFs conducted to validate the degree of accuracy of the proposed model in the non-linear analysis of SMFs. Analytical results show that there is considerable conformity between inter-story drift ratio (IDR) results of the SMFs with Krawinkler's PZ model and those of the centerline SMFs with AREZ.

Analysis of factors related to the use of Korean medicine treatment in adults with anxious mood : Based on the Korea Health Panel Annual Data 2019 (불안이 있는 성인에서 한방치료 이용과 관련된 요인분석 : 제2기 한국의료패널 자료를 중심으로)

  • Tae-Hyeon Lee;Ilsu Park;Chan-Youn Kwon
    • Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.99-111
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    • 2024
  • Objectives : Anxiety is an important mental health symptom associated with healthcare utilization. This research aims to identify the demographic, socio-economic, and health-related factors associated with the use of Korean medicine (KM) treatments in adults experiencing anxiety. Methods : We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using the Korea Health Panel Annual Data 2019. Logistic regression models were employed to examine the relationships between KM utilization and various factors such as economic activity, perceived stress levels, and presence of physical discomfort. The study sample included 552 adults experiencing anxiety. Results : Among the subjects, 19.20% were using both conventional treatment and KM treatment. The analysis revealed that individuals engaged in economic activities were more likely to use KM treatments compared to those who were not (odds ratio [OR] = 2.207, 95% confidential interval [CI] = 1.316 to 3.699). Additionally, individuals reporting high levels of pain or discomfort showed a significantly higher likelihood of using both KM and conventional medical services (OR = 2.933, 95% CI = 1.645 to 5.231). Musculoskeletal conditions were the most common reason for KM utilization among the study participants. Conclusion : The findings suggest that economic activity and the severity of physical discomfort significantly influence the use of KM treatments among adults with anxiety. These insights could inform healthcare policy and the integration of KM services into broader health management strategies for anxiety.

Analysis of the ODA impact that Donor's Exports - Focus on Korean Technology Cooperation ODA (ODA가 공여국의 수출에 미치는 영향 분석 - 한국의 기술협력 ODA를 중심으로)

  • Byun, Sejun;Choi, Jaeyoung
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.99-122
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    • 2019
  • ODA (Official Development Assistance) aims for practicing international humanitarianism in developing countries. However, ODA donors also seek to find convincing evidence meeting the national economic & political interests in the international community. In this regards, precise & unbiased estimation of the policy effects of ODA aid on the donors' exports to the recipient countries has recently become one of the primary concerns of the ODA donors, especially developing countries including Korea of which economy structure heavily relies on exports for economic growth. Based on the basic gravity model, this study empirically analyzes the effects of technical cooperation ODA delivering skills, knowledge and technical know-how on Korea's exports to the ODA recipient countries using 10-year panel data from 2007 to 2016. Specifically, by incorporating major variables affecting trade such as GDP, distance, FDI etc, the effect of technical cooperation ODA on Korea's exports to the ODA recipient countries is estimated with various kinds of panel models. As a result, technical cooperation ODA has a statistically significant impact on Korea's exports to ODA recipient countries, especially in the exports of intermediate goods. And the detail process of this black-boxed mechanism is scrutinized through case studies on Uzbekistan, The Philippines, and Morocco.

Impact Tests and Numerical Simulations of Sandwich Concrete Panels for Modular Outer Shell of LNG Tank (모듈형 LNG 저장탱크 외조를 구성하는 샌드위치 콘크리트 패널의 충돌실험 및 해석)

  • Lee, Gye-Hee;Kim, Eun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.333-340
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    • 2019
  • Tests using a middle velocity propulsion impact machine (MVPIM) were performed to verify the impact resistance capability of sandwich concrete panels (SCP) in a modular liquefied natural gas (LNG) outer tank, and numerical models were constructed and analyzed. $2{\times}2m$ specimens with plain sectional characteristics and specimens including a joint section were used. A 51 kg missile was accelerated above 45 m/s and impacted to have the design code kinetic energy. Impact tests were performed twice according to the design code and once for the doubled impact speed. The numerical models for simulating impact behaviors were created by LS-DYNA. The external steel plate and filled concrete of the panel were modeled as solid elements, the studs as beam elements, and the steel plates as elasto-plastic material with fractures; the CSCM material model was used for concrete. The front plate deformations demonstrated good agreement with those of other tests. However the rear plate deformations were less. In the doubled speed test for the plain section specimen, the missile punctured both plates; however, the front plate was only fractured in the numerical analysis. The impact energy of the missile was transferred to the filled concrete in the numerical analysis.

Uncertainty Characteristics in Future Prediction of Agrometeorological Indicators using a Climatic Water Budget Approach (기후학적 물수지를 적용한 기후변화에 따른 농업기상지표 변동예측의 불확실성)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Hong, Eun-Mi;Choi, Jin-Yong;Cho, Jaepil;Hayes, Michael J.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2015
  • The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5, is the most recent, provides projections of future climate change using various global climate models under four major greenhouse gas emission scenarios. There is a wide selection of climate models available to provide projections of future climate change. These provide for a wide range of possible outcomes when trying to inform managers about possible climate changes. Hence, future agrometeorological indicators estimation will be much impacted by which global climate model and climate change scenarios are used. Decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but the uncertainties associated with global climate models pose substantial hurdles for agricultural resources planning. Although it is the most reasonable that quantifying of the future uncertainty using climate change scenarios, preliminary analysis using reasonable factors for selecting a subset for decision making are needed. In order to narrow the projections to a handful of models that could be used in a climate change impact study, we could provide effective information for selecting climate model and scenarios for climate change impact assessment using maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and moisture index of nine Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.

Computational evaluation of experimental methodologies of out-of-plane behavior of framed-walls with openings

  • Anic, Filip;Penava, Davorin;Abrahamczyk, Lars;Sarhosis, Vasilis
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.265-277
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    • 2019
  • Framed masonry wall structures represent a typical high-rise structural system that are also seismically vulnerable. During ground motions, they are excited in both in-plane and out-of-plane terms. The interaction between the frame and the infill during ground motion is a highly investigated phenomenon in the field of seismic engineering. This paper presents a numerical investigation of two distinct static out-of-plane loading methods for framed masonry wall models. The first and most common method is uniformly loaded infill. The load is generally induced by the airbag. The other method is similar to in-plane push-over method, involves loading of the frame directly, not the infill. Consequently, different openings with the same areas and various placements were examined. The numerical model is based on calibrated in-plane bare frame models and on calibrated wall models subjected to OoP bending. Both methods produced widely divergent results in terms of load bearing capabilities, failure modes, damage states etc. Summarily, uniform load on the panel causes more damage to the infill than to the frame; openings do influence structures behavior; three hinged arching action is developed; and greater resistance and deformations are obtained in comparison to the frame loading method. Loading the frame causes the infill to bear significantly greater damage than the infill; infill and openings only influence the behavior after reaching the peak load; infill does not influence initial stiffness; models with opening fail at same inter-storey drift ratio as the bare frame model.

Updating Korean Disability Weights for Causes of Disease: Adopting an Add-on Study Method

  • Dasom Im;Noor Afif Mahmudah;Seok-Jun Yoon;Young-Eun Kim;Don-Hyung Lee;Yeon-hee Kim;Yoon-Sun Jung;Minsu Ock
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: Disability weights require regular updates, as they are influenced by both diseases and societal perceptions. Consequently, it is necessary to develop an up-to-date list of the causes of diseases and establish a survey panel for estimating disability weights. Accordingly, this study was conducted to calculate, assess, modify, and validate disability weights suitable for Korea, accounting for its cultural and social characteristics. Methods: The 380 causes of disease used in the survey were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network and from 2019 and 2020 Korean studies on disability weights for causes of disease. Disability weights were reanalyzed by integrating the findings of an earlier survey on disability weights in Korea with those of the additional survey conducted in this study. The responses were transformed into paired comparisons and analyzed using probit regression analysis. Coefficients for the causes of disease were converted into predicted probabilities, and disability weights in 2 models (model 1 and 2) were rescaled using a normal distribution and the natural logarithm, respectively. Results: The mean values for the 380 causes of disease in models 1 and 2 were 0.488 and 0.369, respectively. Both models exhibited the same order of disability weights. The disability weights for the 300 causes of disease present in both the current and 2019 studies demonstrated a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.994 (p=0.001 for both models). This study presents a detailed add-on approach for calculating disability weights. Conclusions: This method can be employed in other countries to obtain timely disability weight estimations.

Basic Income models and its Effect on Income Redistribution. (기본소득 모델들의 소득재분배 효과 비교분석)

  • Baek, Seung ho
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.185-212
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    • 2010
  • This study simulates the effects of basic income on income redistribution in Korea, and compares the redistribution effects of basic income models with the effect of the current welfare system. Using the Korea Welfare Panel Study(2008), absolute/relative poverty rate, poverty gap ratio, gini coefficients are measured. As a result of simulation, the basic income models reduced poverty more effectively than the current system. And among the three basic income models, the basic income model combined with flat-rate tax reduced poverty more effectively. And the basic income model combined with progressive tax reduced inequality more effectively. The results of the study reported in this paper confirm the paradox of redistribution which suggest that the effect of universal welfare program on redistribution is the most noticeable.

The Present Status and Development Plan in the Field of Climate Change Science in Korea analyzed by the IPCC-IV Reports (IPCC-IV 국가 보고서 분석에 의한 한국의 기후변화과학 분야의 현황과 발전방향)

  • Chung, Yun-Ang;Chung, Hyo-Sang;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.38-43
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    • 2011
  • The recent global warming may be estimated to give lots of impacts to the human society and biosphere of influencing climate change included by the natural climate variations through the human activity which can directly and/or indirectly play a major role of total atmospheric composition overall. Therefore it currently appears evidences such as hot wave, typhoon, and biosphere disturbance, etc. over the several regions to be influenced by global warming due to increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through inducing forest destruction, fossil fuel combustion, greenhouse gases emission, etc. since industrial revolution era. Through the working group report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for climate change was analyzed by the individual country's current status and figure out the important issues and problems related to the future trend of climate change science with advanced countries preparedness and research, In this study, the first working group report of IPCC focuses on those aspects of the current understanding of the physical science of climate change that are judged to be most relevant to policymakers. As this report was assessed and analyzed by including the progress of climate change science, the role of climate models and evolution in the treatment of uncertainties. This consists of the changes in atmospheric constituents(both aerosols and gases) that affect the radiative energy balance in the atmosphere and determine the Earth's climate, considering the interaction between biogeochemical cycles that affect atmospheric constituents and climate change, including aerosol/cloud interactions, the extensive range of observations snow available for the atmosphere and surface, for snow, ice, and frozen ground and for the oceans, respectively and changes in sea level, the paleoclimate perspective and assessment of evidence for past climate change and the extension, the ways in which physical processes are simulated in climate models and the evaluation of models against observed climate, the development plans and methods of improving expert and building manpower urgently and R&D fund expansion in detail for climate change science in Korea will be proposed.