• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.99-109
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• 2021

This study aims to examine the causal links between the fiscal components, i.e., government expenditures (GE) and government revenues (GR), and their impact on the economic growth of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. This analysis considered secondary panel data from 1990 to 2019 at an annual frequency. The data is obtained from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank Database. A panel cointegration and panel DH causality (Dumitrescu and Hurlin) approach was employed on financial data at an annual frequency from 1990 to 2019. The findings from panel unit root and panel cointegration tests demonstrate that, at first, all the variables are stationary and cointegrated. The panel ARDL disclosed that GE has a long-run connection with GDP, is significantly and positively associated with economic growth in the long run, whereas GR is significant in the short run. The contribution of GE is high in sustaining economic growth as compared to GR. Also, cointegration regression disclosed that GE is more sensitive toward GDP, while GR is less elastic. Lastly, the findings reveal that bidirectional causality exists between GE and GR variables. These results have policy implications for sustainable economic growth in the ASEAN region.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.39-70
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• 2015

This paper examines the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on South Asian economies' output growth, utilizing recent panel cointegration testing and estimation techniques. Annual panel data on eight SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) member countries' macroeconomic variables over the period 1960- 2013 are employed in empirical analysis. Using various heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel causality tests, a bi-directional relationship between FDI and growth is found. We find evidence for both FDI-led growth and growth-induced FDI hypotheses for the South Asian economies over the sample period. Individual member countries exhibit heterogeneity in terms of the direction or existence of causality subject to their idiosyncratic economic conditions. Among various regressors, FDI, financial development, human capital, and government consumption show the most significant positive effects on output growth. As determinants of FDI, GDP, financial development, human capital, and government consumption are found significant in the region. The bi-directional causality between FDI and growth is found robust to the inclusion of other control variables and using different estimation techniques.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.95-111
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to draw out the trade effect of the Korea ASEAN FTA by carrying out a panel analysis. For achieving such a purpose, Panel Unit Root, Panel Cointegration Test, Pooled OLS, Hausman Test, Fixed Effect, Random effect are performed. The last 15 years's data over the period of 1997 to 2011 concentrated on the ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Singapore, Thai, Vietnam is used in this study. Major implications are summarized as following. First, our government need to maximize the effect derived from conclusion of FTA(Free Trade Agreement) in order to enhance the competitive edge through obtaining a stable foreign market. Second, it necessary for our government to improve a national system by orienting a FTA conclusion complying with WTO's product and service-related regulation.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.67-84
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• 2018

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the Balassa-Samuelson effect that real exchange rate could deviate from its long-run equilibrium. To analyze this effect, I estimated the long-run relationship between real exchange and productivity using the dynamic panel ordinary least square(DOLS) and panel error correction model(ECM) after conducting the unit root and cointegration test. The results show that all variables except for the real exchange rate have the unit root. Then I conducted the cointegration test to find out whether there exist the stable long-run relationships. The results show that the variables are cointegrated and significant statistically. The DOLS and ECM methods are used to estimate the coefficient of the cointegrated variables. The major finding are that the estimates are statistically significant and that they show the same sign as the economic theory predicts.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.157-172
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• 2020

Purpose - This research empirically proves the extent to which export insurance promotes Korean exports to research object countries among New Southern countries. The outcome of this research will present implications for the operations of export insurance for exports to these countries. Design/methodology - For the empirical analysis, the export equation was composed using a basic gravity model. Based on this, the determinants of Korea's exports to research object countries were analyzed. In this study, a panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted. As a result of the panel unit root test, it was confirmed that the variables of the panel data are not belonging to I(0), but to I(1). As a result of the panel cointegration test, it was established that there are long-term stable relationships among all variables. Accordingly, the gravity model was estimated using original data in order to reduce the information loss caused by the first difference, in spite of individual data belonging to I(1). Findings - For the estimated results of panel OLS, the estimated coefficient of short-term export insurance was 0.56-0.64, with statistically significant results at the significance level of 1%. In addition, for the analysis results of the random effect model, the estimated coefficient of short-term export insurance was 0.59-0.64%, with a statistically significant result at the 1% significance level. This could indicate that Korean export insurance has positive influences on export promotion to New Southern countries. Originality/value - The research implies that export insurance has a 4.1 to 4.7 multiplier effect in expanding exports to the New Southern countries for Korea. This research has intensively analyzed the effects of export insurance on the promotion of exports to a selected area by a government foreign economic policy, which is the originality and value of this paper.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.181-230
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• 2023

Evaluating the empirical validity of Modern Monetary Theory, this study implements panel cointegration analysis on annual panel data (2000-2022) of OECD countries. Specifically, the sample countries are divided into groups based on the presence of their own sovereign currencies, and for each group, the long-run equilibrium relation (cointegration) between the ratio of public debt or fiscal deficit and government bond rates is tested and estimated. Main findings are as follows: applying the pooled mean-group estimation for panel cointegration, it is found that both the ratios of public debt and fiscal deficit have significantly positive long-run correlation with government bond rates in countries without sovereign currency such as the Euro-zone or fixed exchange rate regime countries. However, in countries with sovereign currency such as non-Euro-zone or floating exchange rate regime countries, the long-run correlation is either negative or not statistically significant. Particularly, in countries without sovereign currency, the ratio of public debt has significantly positive correlation with the real government bond rates in the short run as well as the long run. These results are consistent with the prediction of Modern Monetary Theory, thus providing a supporting evidence for the empirical validity of the theory.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.9
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• pp.165-176
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• 2021

The paper has used the Solow-Swan growth model to analyze the long-term impact of credit market development and stock market development on economic growth in Asia from 2000 to 2019. The empirical model is performed with panel cointegration analysis by Common Correlated Effects (CCE) method with cross-sectional dependencies. The results find that there exists a cointegration relationship among stock market, credit market development, and economic growth. These results also show that financial structure improves the exact impact of financial development on economic growth, namely the opposite effect of stock market development and credit market development. Moreover, the Granger causality test reveals a bi-directional relationship between credit market development and economic growth, while only unidirectional causality from stock market development to economic growth for the whole group panel. And it is different for a specific country, according to Kónya's test. The view of the new structuralism does not apply in the Asian financial system when we estimate the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL) to analyze the asymmetric relationship between financial structure and economic growth. On the whole, policymakers can draw on the findings to provide policy implications to improve their country's financial system as well as pursue the goal of sustainable economic growth.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.173-183
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• 2022

The objective of this research is to examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets in a few developing and developed countries. This study uses daily data from January 2020 to May 2021 and obtained from World Health Organization and Thomson Reuters. The secondary data was evaluated through panel econometric methodology that includes different unit root tests, and to analyze the long-run relationship between variables, panel cointegration techniques were applied. The long-run causality among variables was examined through Panel Vector Error Correction Model. The overall findings of this study suggest a long-run association exists between several cases and death with the stock returns of the GCC and other stock markets. Furthermore, the VECM model also identified a long-run causality running from COVID cases and death towards the stock rerun of both sets of stock markets. However, a subsequent Wald test yielded mixed results, indicating no short-run causality between cases and deaths and stock returns in both groups; however, in the case of GCC, several COVID-19 cases are having a causal impact on stock markets, which is notable in light of the fact that the death rate in GCC is significantly lower than in many developed and developing countries.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.135-146
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• 2011

A voluminous research on efficiency employs the DEA(Data Envelope Analysis) models. There are, however, only very few that have an interest in the factors influencing such efficiencies. We, furthermore, do not see any studies which analyze the long-term efficiency of the logistics providers using the panel cointegration techniques. The purpose of this paper, hence, is to evaluate the efficiency, analyse its determinants and show a long-term relationship between turnover and the other variables employing the SBM(Slack Based Measure) model, Tobit model, the panel procedure and the FMOLS(Fully Modified OLS). The panel data are composed of 9 individuals and 6 years. The panel cointegrating vectors show that the group coefficient of asset and employees is not only significant but has expected signs, while some of the individual coefficients are insignificant or/and exhibit wrong signs. The panel cointegrating vectors from fully modified OLS also indicate that the estimated coefficients of the panel analysis tend to be overvalued and the asset influences the turnover far greater than the employee does.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.21-27
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• 2020

Purpose: The present study examines the effects of tourism on carbon dioxide emissions for selected South Asian economies over the time from 1995 to 2016. Research design, data and methodology: The present study is an annual time series analysis of tourism and CO2 emissions. The data is taken from World Development Indicators, an official data bank of World Bank. The study sample covers four South Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The empirical analysis is conducted by employing Pedroni panel cointegration, Fully Modified OLS, and Dynamic OLS approaches of estimation. Results: Tourism significantly increases environmental degradation in selected South Asian economies. The empirical estimated results indicate, that 1 % increase in tourism related activities leads to 0.16 % increase in CO2 emissions. In addition energy consumption and GDP are also causing an upsurge in CO2 emissions in the selected panel of South Asian economies. As the empirical results indicate that 1% increase in GDP stimulates carbon dioxide emissions by 0.23%. Conclusion: In order to protect the environment, the study emphasizes that sustainable tourism practices need to be promoted in the selected South Asian countries. Policy implication and provided and discussed.