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VKOSPI Forecasting and Option Trading Application Using SVM (SVM을 이용한 VKOSPI 일 중 변화 예측과 실제 옵션 매매에의 적용)

  • Ra, Yun Seon;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.177-192
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    • 2016
  • Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence. It refers to an area of computer science related to providing machines the ability to perform their own data analysis, decision making and forecasting. For example, one of the representative machine learning models is artificial neural network, which is a statistical learning algorithm inspired by the neural network structure of biology. In addition, there are other machine learning models such as decision tree model, naive bayes model and SVM(support vector machine) model. Among the machine learning models, we use SVM model in this study because it is mainly used for classification and regression analysis that fits well to our study. The core principle of SVM is to find a reasonable hyperplane that distinguishes different group in the data space. Given information about the data in any two groups, the SVM model judges to which group the new data belongs based on the hyperplane obtained from the given data set. Thus, the more the amount of meaningful data, the better the machine learning ability. In recent years, many financial experts have focused on machine learning, seeing the possibility of combining with machine learning and the financial field where vast amounts of financial data exist. Machine learning techniques have been proved to be powerful in describing the non-stationary and chaotic stock price dynamics. A lot of researches have been successfully conducted on forecasting of stock prices using machine learning algorithms. Recently, financial companies have begun to provide Robo-Advisor service, a compound word of Robot and Advisor, which can perform various financial tasks through advanced algorithms using rapidly changing huge amount of data. Robo-Adviser's main task is to advise the investors about the investor's personal investment propensity and to provide the service to manage the portfolio automatically. In this study, we propose a method of forecasting the Korean volatility index, VKOSPI, using the SVM model, which is one of the machine learning methods, and applying it to real option trading to increase the trading performance. VKOSPI is a measure of the future volatility of the KOSPI 200 index based on KOSPI 200 index option prices. VKOSPI is similar to the VIX index, which is based on S&P 500 option price in the United States. The Korea Exchange(KRX) calculates and announce the real-time VKOSPI index. VKOSPI is the same as the usual volatility and affects the option prices. The direction of VKOSPI and option prices show positive relation regardless of the option type (call and put options with various striking prices). If the volatility increases, all of the call and put option premium increases because the probability of the option's exercise possibility increases. The investor can know the rising value of the option price with respect to the volatility rising value in real time through Vega, a Black-Scholes's measurement index of an option's sensitivity to changes in the volatility. Therefore, accurate forecasting of VKOSPI movements is one of the important factors that can generate profit in option trading. In this study, we verified through real option data that the accurate forecast of VKOSPI is able to make a big profit in real option trading. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on the idea of predicting the direction of VKOSPI based on machine learning and introducing the idea of applying it to actual option trading. In this study predicted daily VKOSPI changes through SVM model and then made intraday option strangle position, which gives profit as option prices reduce, only when VKOSPI is expected to decline during daytime. We analyzed the results and tested whether it is applicable to real option trading based on SVM's prediction. The results showed the prediction accuracy of VKOSPI was 57.83% on average, and the number of position entry times was 43.2 times, which is less than half of the benchmark (100 times). A small number of trading is an indicator of trading efficiency. In addition, the experiment proved that the trading performance was significantly higher than the benchmark.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.225-270
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    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

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Deviations of Implant Position between Pre- and Post-operation in Computer-guided Template-based Implant Placement (Computer-guided template를 이용한 임플란트 식립에서 술 전과 술 후 사이의 임플란트 위치에 따른 변위량 검사)

  • Kim, Won;Kim, Seung-Mi;Kim, Hyo-Jung;Song, Eun-Young;Lee, Si-Ho;Oh, Nam-Sik
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2011
  • With a development of implant restoration technique, there are increasing use of computer-guided system for edentulous patients. It was carried out simulated operation based on CT information about patient's bone quantity, quality and anatomical landmark. However, there are some difference between the programmed implant and post-operative implant about it's position. If the deviation was severe, it could happen a failure of 'passive fit' and not suited for path of implant restoration. The aim of this presentation is to evaluate about a degree of deviations between programmed implant and post-operative implant. Five patients treated by 'NobelGuide' system (Nobel Biocare AB, G$\ddot{o}$teborg, Sweden) in Department of Prosthodontics, Inha University were included in this study. The patients were performed CT radiograph taking and intra-oral impression taking at pre-operation. Based on CT images and study model, surgical stent was produced by NobelBiocareTM. To fabricated a pre-operative study model, after connected lab analog to surgical template, accomplished a pre-operative model using type 4 dental stone. At final impression, a post-operative study model was fabricated in the conventional procedures. Each study model was performed CT radiograph taking. Based on CT images, each implant was simulated in three dimensional position using $Procera^{(R)}$ software (Procera Software Clinical Design Premium, version 1.5; Nobel Biocare AB). In 3D simulated model, length and angulation between each implant of both pre- and post-operative implants were measured and recorded about linear and angular deviation between pre-and post-operative implants. A total of 24 implants were included in this study and 58 inter-implant sites between each implant were measured about linear and angular deviations. In the linear deviation a mean deviation of 0.41 mm (range 0~1.7 mm) was reported. In the angular deviation, a mean deviation was $1.99^{\circ}$ (range $0^{\circ}{\sim}6.7^{\circ}$). It appears that the both linear and angular mean deviation value were well acceptable to application of computer-guided implant system.

Measuring Economic Values of Amenity Services from Urban Greenspaces in the Seoul Metropolitan Area Using Choice Experiments (선택실험을 이용한 서울 도시녹지 어메니티의 경제가치 평가)

  • Choi, Andy S.;Eom, Young Sook
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2018
  • This paper reports novel empirical results of a choice experiment that elicited the economic values that residents in the Seoul metropolitan area place on the amenity services realized from the landscape views and accessibilities to urban green spaces (i.e., mountains, rivers and urban parks). The 1,000 respondents in the sample were divided into two residential of housing types (apartments vs. houses) and occupancy types (owners vs. tenants). Residents living in apartments are willing to pay an average of 28% (5.0 million KRW per year) above the current housing prices per household for a mountain view, compared to an apartment view from their living room. Their willingness to pay values are about 22% (4.0 million KRW per year) and 10% (1.8 million KRW per year) respectively for a river view and a urban park view. Economic benefits of having access (i.e., a 10 minutes working distance) to mountains, rivers and urban parks are estimated to be an average of 16% (2.9 million KRW per year), 20% (3.6 million KRW per year) and 18% (3.2 million KRW per year), respectively, above the current housing prices per household. On the other hand, access benefits for those residing in houses are 18% (4.7 million KRW per year), 16% (4.1 million KRW per year) and 22% (5.6 million KRW per year) per household, respectively. They are also willing to pay an average of 35% (8.9 million KRW per year) above the current housing prices for keeping or having a garden or vegetation bed. Furthermore, a strong "greenspace premium" is centered around the three Gangnam districts for house-dwellers, whereas it is areas of "new real estate boom" for apartment dwellers.

A Study on the Aesthetic Art Marketing Communication of Luxury Brand Using Storytelling (스토리텔링을 이용한 명품 브랜드의 미학적 아트마케팅 커뮤니케이션에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Hye-Duk;Hwang, Jae-Kwang;Lee, Sang-Youn
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2011
  • This study presents an effective and distinctive marketing strategy through the implementation of the aesthetic art marketing communication technique of storytelling. The reason applying art to marketing is effective is that it gives "class" and aesthetic beauty to the brand's image, which will lead to an increase in revenue and loyalty of consumers. The story stands in for the brand's subject of "desire." Luxury brand customers not only consume high-quality products, require the utmost in service, and value of the brand, they also appreciate the story the brand is telling. The story, combined with art, is called art marketing communication; it makes the brand more unique through its enhanced visual elements. The study discusses art collaboration, art exhibition, a transforming architecture project, art advertisement, a flagship store, and a human resource training center. Based on the "desire," I adopted the element and principle of storytelling. By visualizing the brand with a symbol, the company is able to relate to consumers' sentimentality. Through storytelling art marketing communication, and the strategy using relevance of brand and artist's popularity, the research shows efficient art marketing influences to the brand's image. The results of the research indicate that by using adequate art marketing communication that best reflects the identity and story of the luxury brand, it produces great results; the research also demonstrated, in various ways, that art marketing will succeed. The case showed the following outcomes. First, consumers have a tendency to choose a brand that is associated with an empathizing story. World renowned brands see through the market's "desires" for unique stories, and they also provide the ability to amuse consumers. The story in a product will become an important competitive element in future markets. Second, the art marketing communication applying a story rendered a brand with distinction. The most effective art marketing communications are art collaboration, art exhibition, locomotive architecture project, and others that are adopted as various means. Third, the brand's products were considered as an art piece, which led to not only strengthening the loyalty of consumers but also an increase in sales. In addition, the company could sustain a premium price for the goods sold. By adapting art to a brand's tradition, an innovative and creative new product provides consumer satisfaction, and producing goods in limited editions creates enthusiastic collectors. Fourth, this study suggests an abridged report, implication, limitation of the study, and directions for further research. Referring to the case for the adaptation of luxury brands, efficient art marketing strategies considering Korean company brand and efficiently study preceding Korean company brand art marketing strategy could be proposed.

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Relationship between Stratum Corneum Carbonylated Protein (SCCP) and Skin Biophysical Parameters (Stratum Corneum Carbonylated Protein (SCCP)의 피부 생물학적 파라미터와의 관계)

  • Lee, Yongjik;Nam, Gaewon
    • Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2019
  • Carbonylated proteins (CPs) are synthesized by the chemical reaction of basic amino acid residues in proteins with aldehyde compounds yielded by lipid peroxidation. CPs are excited by a range of light from UVA to blue light, and resulted in the generation of superoxide anion radicals ($^{\cdot}O_2{^-}$) by photosensitizing reaction. Then, they CPs induce new protein carbonylation in stratum corneum through ROS generation. Furthermore, the superoxide anion radicals produce CPs in the stratum corneum (SC) through lipid peroxidation and finally affects skin conditions including color and moisture functions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the production of stratum corneum carbonylated protein (SCCP) and the skin elasticity. 46 healthy female Koream at the ages of 30 ~ 50 years old were participated in this study for 8 weeks. The skin test was experiment conducted into two groups; placebo group (N = 23) used cream that did not contain active ingredients, and the other group (N = 23) used cream containing the elasticity improving ingredients. Test areas were the crow 's feet and the cheek. Various non-invasive methods were carried out to measure biophysical parameters on human skin indicating that dermis density and skin wrinkle were measured by using DUB scanner and Primos premium, respectively. Skin elasticity were measured using dermal torque meter (DTM310) and balistometer (BLS780). SCCP was assessed in a simple and non-invasive method using skin surface biopsy on the cheek of the subject. The amount of SCCP was determined using image analysis. All measurements were taken at 0, 4 and 8 8week. Results revealed that the amount of CP in SC was reduced when the skin wrinkle and skin elasticity related parameters were improved. This indicates that the correlation between the elasticity improvement and the amount of CP can be used as a anti-aging indicator and applicable to the skin clinical test for the measurement of skin aging in the future.

Study on Korean SMEs' Brand Luxuriousness Building (마케팅 믹스를 활용한 한국 중소기업의 브랜드 명품성 구축에 대한 연구)

  • Koh, InKo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2018
  • As interest and consumption of luxury goods have become more popular, luxury goods market is growing rapidly. Consumers can acquire psychological satisfaction with material abundance by purchasing and using luxury goods. Also, from the view of corporations, luxury goods have price inelastic characteristics, so they can enjoy price premium and it is good to produce good performance. That is the reason why they should pay much attention to securing luxuriousness. This study examined the establishment of brands luxuriousness in Korean SMEs. First, it examined the world market of luxury goods industry and the present condition of Korean market. Then it identified the constituents of luxuriousness by examining the prior studies and related literatures, and designed a research model based on the theoretical grounds to suggest the methods of brand luxuriousness building of Korean SMEs. Luxuriousness can be defined as the attribute of product that distinguishes luxury goods from other products by consumers' perceptions, and the factor that provides situational benefits that motivate consumers' purchasing behavior. In this study, I identified the sub-dimensions of luxuriousness according to whether there are product related attributes and consumers' benefit in consideration of the problems of existing studies. Product related luxuriousness are classified into superiority(functional benefit) and scarcity(experiential benefit), while non-product related luxuriousness are classified into differentiation(symbolic benefit) and traditionality(exclusive benefit). The following are the ways to build brand luxuriousness. First, company can use product factors. High quality, excellent design, high recognized brand with strong, favorable and unique images can enhance the luxuriousness of brand. Second, company can use price factors. Consumers tend to perceive luxury goods as high-priced items, so lowering the price of product can undermine the luxuriousness of product. Third, company can use distribution factors. It is effective for making consumers to perceive the differentiation and scarcity of luxuriousness through limited distribution channel. In addition, store atmosphere suitable for luxury brands should be created. Fourth, company can use promotion factors. The more consumers are exposed to advertisements, the more positive attitudes toward luxury brands are made, and consumers recognize luxuriousness higher. Price promotion negatively affects consumers' perception of luxuriousness. Fifth, company can use corporate factors. Consumer evaluations of products are influenced not only by the product attributes but also by the corporate association and corporate image surrounding the product. Considering the existing researches, it is possible to enhance the brand luxuriousness through high corporate competence and good corporate reputation. In order to increase the competence of the enterprise, it is useful to approach multidimensionally in relation with the knowledge creation capability. In corporate reputation, the external stakeholders' reputation is important, but the internal members' reputation is also important. Korean SMEs will be able to build brand luxuriousness by establishing marketing strategies as above and/or mix(integrate) them according to the situation.

The history of awareness for ginseng in Vietnam (베트남의 고려인삼 인식에 대한 소고)

  • Ock, Soonjong
    • Journal of Ginseng Culture
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    • v.1
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    • pp.78-92
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    • 2019
  • Among the Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam had the most cultural exchange with Korea. Through Confusion and Chinese character, which were the common measure for two countries, Korea and Vietnam could communicate and share a sentiment with each other. Two countries showed an enormous interest in each other, and hence they could keep good relationship without official diplomatic relations. During the early 19th century, Korean Ginseng had gained tremendous popularity in Vietnam. Vietnamese believed the stamina of Minh Mang, who had 142 sons and daughters, originated from ginseng. Minh Mang bestowed ginseng on old courtiers for their contribution, which made them more loyal to the king. This tradition was inherited to the future generations, and soldiers who fought with Thai, Cambodia and France also received ginseng for their contribution. In other words, ginseng was the very important key for enforcement of patriotism. Due to the tradition, Korean ginseng has been considered as the premium ginseng in Vietnam. It is presumed that ginseng flew into Vietnam through 4 routes; 1) as an imperial gift from Chinese emperor, 2) by the Vietnamese ambassadors who went to Beijing for a tribute, 3) through private trade and 4) from Ryukyu or Japan, which were the hub of international trade. From 15th to 18th century, ambassadors from Chosun and Vietnam actively interacted in Beijing. Through their interchange, Vietnamese royal family could learn about the value of ginseng. The fact that there were many Shilhak scholars among the ambassadors from Joseon, such as Seo Geojeong and Seo Hosu who had profound knowledge of ginseng proves the theory. It is also possible that reputation of ginseng was already established in Vietnam during Silla period. Ko Byung, an bureaucrat from Tang Dynasty who ruled Vietnam for 10 years in middle 9th century and a friend of Choi Chiwon, might have delivered the knowledge of ginseng to the upper class in Vietnam. This hypothesis, however, should be proven by literatures. Hence, further research about the trace of Korean ginseng in Vietnamese history and literary works still remains to be done.

A Research on Buncheong Jar with dragon and cloud patterns(龍樽) in the early the Joseon Dynasty with priority given to Buncheongsagisanggamunryongmunho, National treasures (조선 초기 용준(龍樽), 분청사기 상감 운룡문 호의 특징과 성격)

  • OH, Youngin
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.85-110
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the production and use, development of Buncheongsagisang-gamunryongmunho, focusing on Buncheong Jar with dragon and cloud patterns(龍樽) in the early the Joseon Dynasty. The Buncheong Jar with dragon and cloud patterns(龍樽) which is the size of a large bottle as high as 50cm is a form of stability to have gorgeous decorativeness with the inlaid and stamped pattern. The Buncheongsagisanggamunryongmunho is the Buncheong Jar with dragon and cloud patterns(龍樽) used for Flower Vessels(花樽) at Royal Ritual in King Sejong(世宗) era. In the 1420s and 1430s, made in Premium ceramic factory of Sangju-mok, it is Blue and white porcelain in reference to dragon and cloud patterns in the Yuan and Ming Dynasties in aspects of shapes and patterns, to the inlaid Celadon in the period of Late Goryeo Dynasty in aspects of patterns, and to Joseon porcelain in aspects of shapes and decoration techniques. The Joseon Royal family found out the appropriateness of the founding of the dynasty and the base for the system of civilization from Ming dynasty, to follow Ming dynasty by choosing white porcelains as the King's vessel. Jars passed down from Emperor Ming served as a standard for Royal Ritual Jars, to use Blue and White Porcelain Jar with dragon and cloud patterns as Flower Vessels(花樽) and Liquor Vessels(酒樽) for ages. Consequently, the Buncheong Jar with dragon and cloud patterns(龍樽) as Royal Ritual Jar had been used till 1430's when Blue and white porcelain Jar with dragon and cloud patterns(靑花雲龍白磁酒海) was passed down from Emperor Ming, Xuande Emperor(宣德帝), only to lose its Meaning and Use as the Royal Jar with dragon and cloud patterns(龍樽) during the early Joseon Period gradually.

Modeling Brand Equity for Lifestyle Brand Extensions: A Strategic Approach into Generation Y vs. Baby Boomer (생활방식품패확장적품패자산건모(生活方式品牌扩张的品牌资产建模): 침대Y세대화영인조소비자적전략로경(针对Y世代和婴儿潮消费者的战略路径))

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Brandon, Lynn
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2010
  • Today, the fashion market challenged by a maturing retail market needs a new paradigm in the "evolution of brand" to improve their comparative advantages. An important issue in fashion marketing is lifestyle brand extension with a specific aim to meet consumers' specific needs for their changing lifestyle. For fashion brand extensions into lifestyle product categories, Gen Y and Baby Boomer are emerging as "prospects"-Baby Boomers who are renovating their lifestyle, and generation Y experiencing changes in their life stage-with demands for buying new products. Therefore, it is imperative that apparel companies pay special attention to the consumer cohort for brand extension to create and manage their brand equity in a new product category. The purposes of this study are to (a) evaluate brand equity between parent and extension brands; (b) identify consumers' perceived marketing elements for brand extension; and (c) estimate a structural equation model for examining causative relationship between marketing elements and brand equity for brand extensions in lifestyle product category including home fashion items for the selected two groups (e.g., Gen Y, and Baby boomer). For theoretical frameworks, this study focused on the traditional marketing 4P's mix to identify what marketing element is more importantly related to brand extension equity for this study. It is assumed that comparable marketing capability can be critical to establish "brand extension equity", leads to successfully entering the new categories. Drawing from the relevant literature, this study developed research hypotheses incorporating brand equity factors and marketing elements by focusing on the selected consumers (e.g., Gen Y, Baby Boomer). In the context of brand extension in the lifestyle products, constructs of brand equity consist of brand awareness/association, brand perceptions (e.g., perceived quality, emotional value) and brand resonance adapted from CBBE factors (Keller, 2001). It is postulated that the marketing elements create brand extension equity in terms of brand awareness/association, brand perceptions by the brand extension into lifestyle products, which in turn influence brand resonance. For data collection, the sample was comprised of Korean female consumers in Gen Y and Baby Boomer consumer categories who have a high demand for lifestyle products due to changing their lifecycles. A total of 651 usable questionnaires were obtained from female consumers of Gen Y (n=326) and Baby Boomer (n=325) in South Korea. Structural and measurement models using a correlation matrix was estimated using LISREL 8.8. Findings indicated that perceived marketing elements for brand extension consisted of three factors: price/store image, product, and advertising. In the model of Gen Y consumers, price/store image had a positive effect on brand equity factors (e.g., brand awareness/association, perceived quality), while product had positive effect on emotional value in the brand extensions; and the brand awareness/association was likely to increase the perceived quality and emotional value, leading to brand resonance for brand extensions in the lifestyle products. In the model of Baby Boomer consumers, price/store image had a positive effect on perceived quality, which created brand resonance of brand extension; and product had a positive effect on perceived quality and emotional value, which leads to brand resonance for brand extension in the lifestyle products. However, advertising was negatively related to brand equity for both groups. This study provides an insight for fashion marketers in developing a successful brand extension strategy, leading to a sustainable competitive advantage. This study complements and extends prior works in the brand extension through critical factors of marketing efforts that affect brand extension success. Findings support a synergy effect on leveraging of fashion brand extensions (Aaker and Keller, 1990; Tauber, 1988; Shine et al., 2007; Pitta and Katsanis, 1995) in conjunction with marketing actions for entering into the new product category. Thus, it is recommended that marketers targeting both Gen Y and Baby Boomer can reduce marketing cost for entering the new product category (e.g., home furnishings) by standardized marketing efforts; fashion marketers can (a) offer extension lines with premium ranges of price; (b) place an emphasis on upscale features of store image positioning by a retail channel (e.g., specialty department store) in Korea, and (c) combine apparel with lifestyle product assortments including innovative style and designer’s limited editions. With respect to brand equity, a key to successful brand extension is consumers’ brand awareness or association that ensures brand identity with new product category. It is imperative for marketers to have knowledge of what contributes to more concrete associations in a market entry into new product categories. For fashion brands, a second key of brand extension can be a "luxury" lifestyle approach into new product categories, in that higher price or store image had impact on perceived quality that established brand resonance. More importantly, this study increases the theoretical understanding of brand extension and suggests directions for marketers as they establish marketing program at Gen Y and Baby Boomers.