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Developing the Accurate Method of Test Data Assessment with Changing Reliability Growth Rate and the Effect Evaluation for Complex and Repairable Products

  • So, Young-Kug;Ryu, Byeong-Jin
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.90-100
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    • 2015
  • Reliability growth rate (or reliability growth curve slope) have the two cases of trend as a constant or changing one during the reliability growth testing. The changing case is very common situation. The reasons of reliability growth rate changing are that the failures to follow the NHPP (None-Homogeneous Poisson Process), and the solutions implemented during test to break out other problems or not to take out all of the root cause permanently. If the changing were big, the "Goodness of Fit (GOF)" of reliability growth curve to test data would be very low and then reduce the accuracy of assessing result with test data. In this research, we are using Duane model and AMSAA model for assessing test data and projecting the reliability level of complex and repairable system as like construction equipment and vehicle. In case of no changing in reliability growth rate, it is reasonable for reliability engineer to implement the original Duane model (1964) and Crow-AMSAA model (1975) for the assessment and projection activity. However, in case of reliability growth rate changing, it is necessary to find the method to increase the "GOF" of reliability growth curves to test data. To increase GOF of reliability growth curves, it is necessary to find the proper parameter calculation method of interesting reliability growth models that are applicable to the situation of reliability growth rate changing. Since the Duane and AMSAA models have a characteristic to get more strong influence from the initial test (or failure) data than the latest one, the both models have a limitation to contain the latest test data information that is more important and better to assess test data in view of accuracy, especially when the reliability growth rate changing. The main objective of this research is to find the parameter calculation method to reflect the latest test data in the case of reliability growth rate changing. According to my experience in vehicle and construction equipment developments over 18 years, over the 90% in the total development cases are with such changing during the developing test. The objective of this research was to develop the newly assessing method and the process for GOF level increasing in case of reliability growth rate changing that would contribute to achieve more accurate assessing and projecting result. We also developed the new evaluation method for GOF that are applicable to the both models as Duane and AMSAA, so it is possible to compare it between models and check the effectiveness of new parameter calculation methods in any interesting situation. These research results can reduce the decision error for development process and business control with the accurately assessing and projecting result.

Spatial Distribution Pattern of Ascotis selenaria (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) larvae in a Small-Scale of Citrus Orchard (소규모 감귤원에서 네눈쑥가지나방 유충의 공간분포 특성에 대한 이해)

  • Choi, Kyung San;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.243-248
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to understand the settlement process of Ascotis selenaria larvae into citrus orchards with respect to oviposition site and analysis of the spatial distribution pattern of the larvae. A. selenaria eggs were not found on citrus trees in field and green house, but not on citrus trees in the field. A. selenaria larvae showed a significant clump distribution in the greenhouse. In the open citrus field, the index of dispersion was around 1.0 in most cases, with a weak clumping degree. However, the d-statistic was between -1.96 and 1.96, indicating a statistically significant random distribution. In addition, the Green's index (a clumping index) was very low in all cases, even though the clump distribution was accepted. for most samples, the probability distribution of larval frequency in the field satisfied the probability distribution functions of Poisson (random pattern) and the negative binomial (clump pattern) distribution. In addition, the temporal distribution of the larvae in the open field showed a pattern which was formed by colonizers from outside oviposition sites. Further, the difference in larval spatial distribution between field and greenhouse orchards was discussed.

Seismic Studies on Ground Motion using the Multicomponent Complex Trace Analysis Method (다성분 복소 트레이스 분석법을 이용한 지진파 입자운동 연구)

  • Lee, So-Young;Kim, Ki-Young;Kim, Han-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 2000
  • In order to investigate in-line ground motions caused by earthquakes, we examine the multicomponent complex trace analysis method (MCTAM) for the synthetic data and apply it to real earthquake data. An experimental result for synthetic data gives correct information on the arrival times, duration of individual phases, and approaching angles for body waves. Rayleigh waves are also easily identified with the MCTAM. A deep earthquake with magnitude of 7.3 was chosen to test various polarization attributes of ground motions. For P waves, instantaneous phase difference between the vertical and the in-line horizontal components ${\phi}(t)$, instantaneous reciprocal ellipticity ${\rho}(t)$, and approaching angle ${\tau}(t)$ are computed to be ${\pm}180^{\circ},\;0{\sim}0.25,\;and\;-30^{\circ}{\sim}-45^{\circ}$, respectively. For S waves, ${\phi}(t)$ tends to vary while ${\rho}(t)$ have values of $0{\sim}0.3\;and\;{\tau}(t)$ remains near vertical, respectively. A relatively low frequency signal registered just prior to the S wave event is interpreted as a P-wave phase based on its polarization characteristics. Velocities of P and S waves are computed to be 8.633 km/s and 4.762 km/s, and their raypath parameters 0.074 s/km and 0.197 s/km. Dynamic Poisson's ratio is obtained as 0.281 from the velocities of P and S waves.

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The Economic and Social Implication of Count Regression Models for Married Women's Completed Fertility in Korea (우리나라 가구의 자녀수 결정요인에 관한 Count 모형 분석 및 경제적 함의)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sook
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.107-135
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    • 2007
  • This paper uses a static Gamma count model, a traditional hurdle model and an endogenous switching Poisson model, respectively for determining married women's completed fertility rates in Korea. This paper analyzes the impact of household income, women's wage and education, and women's job market participation on the number of children of married women above age 40 and on the expected number of children of women aged below 40. The paper shows that a household income significantly increases the number of children for at least women aged above 40, however, this income effect is disappearing for younger generation. The empirical model suggests that women having a job tend to have fewer children for a group 39 years old and below and find that there is an endogeneity problem between child birth and labor force participation, too. The education level of married women gives a positive effect for giving a birth, itself, while it gives a negative impact on the number of children. Based on the empirical results, it concludes that Becker's Quantity-Quality theory works for Korea, too.

Delineation of Geological Weak Zones in an Area of Small-scale Landslides Using Correlation between Electrical Resistivity, Bore, and Well-logging Data (전기비저항 및 시추·검층자료의 상관해석을 통한 소규모 산사태 지역의 지질 연약대 파악)

  • Lee, Sun-Joong;Kang, Yu-Gyeong;Lee, Cheol-Hee;Jeon, Su-In;Kim, Ji-Soo
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2020
  • Electrical resistivity and downhole seismic surveys were conducted together with bore investigations and well-logging to examine subsurface structures in small-scale landslides at Sinjindo-ri, Geunheung-myeon, Taean-gun, Chungcheongnam-do, Republic of Korea in 2014. On the basis of the low N-values at depths of 5~7 m in borehole BH-2, downhole seismic and electrical dipole-dipole resistivity surveys were performed to delineate geological weak zones. The low-resistivity zones (<150 Ω·m) measure ~8 m in thickness and show a close depth correspondence to weathered soils consisting mainly of silty clays as identified from the bore investigations and well-logging data. Compared with weak zones in borehole BH-1, weak zones in BH-2 are characterized by lower densities (1.6~1.8 g/㎤) and resistivities (<150 Ω·m) and greater variation in Poisson's ratio. These observations can be explained by the presence of wet silty clays rich in weathered soil material that have resulted from heavy rainfall and rises in groundwater level. Downslope movements are probably caused by the sliding of wet clay that acts to reduce the strength of the weathered soil.

Development of the Electronic compass for Automatic Correction do Deviation (自動自差修正이 가능한 電子컴퍼스의 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Young-Wha;Shin, Hyeong-Il;Shirai, Yasuyuki
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.319-327
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    • 2004
  • The Electronic compass made as a pilot model in this research is comprised of a three axis magnetic sensor, an accustar clinometer, and a fiber optic gyro sensor. The results confirming the output character, performance, and the accuracy of the deviation corrects of each sensor are as follows: 1) As for the output character of the three axis magnetic sensor, the magnetic field showed a cosine curve on the X axis, a - sine curve on the Y axis, and constant figures on the Z sensor. The horizontal component H and the vertical component V of the terrestrial magnetism calculated from the output voltage were 33.2${\mu}$T and 23.95${\mu}$T respectively. 2) When the fiber optic gyro sensor is fixed on the electromotive rotation transformation and has made a clockwise rotation with the speed of 10/sec, 20/sec, and 30/sec, the relationship between the output and the rotation angle of the fiber optic gyro sensor showed proportionally constant values. 3) When the magnetic field was induced with a magnet, the deviation before the correction was significant at a high of 25. However, the deviation after the correction using Poisson correction was in the 2 range, significantly lower than before the correction. It was confirmed that automatic deviation corrects are possible with the electronic compass made as a pilot model in this research.

Effect of Recycled Fine Aggregates and Fly Ash on the Mechanical Properties of PVA Fiber-Reinforced Cement Composites (순환잔골재 및 플라이애시가 PVA 섬유보강 시멘트 복합체의 역학적 특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Nam, Yi-Hyun;Park, Wan-Shin;Jang, Young-Il;Yun, Hyun-Do;Kim, Sun-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2017
  • As the amount of construction wastes increase, reuse of recycled materials is being considered in research areas. While there are many experimental investigations focusing on development of mortar and concrete using the recycled materials, the studies regarding the fiber-reinforced cement composites (FRCCs) using recycled materials are still limited. In this paper, an experimental attempt has been made to investigate the effect of recycled fine aggregates and fly ash on the mechanical properties of PVA FRCCs. The cement and natural sand were respectively replaced by fly ash and recycled fine aggregates at two content levels, 25% and 50%. Ten types of PVA FRCCs mixes were fabricated and tested to investigate the flexural, compressive and direct tensile behaviors. The test results show that flexural, compressive and direct tensile strength were decreased with increase in fly ash content at all ages. In particular, flexural, compressive and direct tensile strengths of specimens, containing 50% recycled fine aggregates and 50% fly ash, showed the lowest values. The modulus of elasticity of specimens showed similar trend to the 28-day compressive strength. Poisson's ratio was increased with increase in fly ash and recycled fine aggregates content.

Effect of WO3 or Ga2O3 Addition on the Phase Evolution and Properties of Y2O3-Doped AlN Ceramics (Y2O3-AlN 세라믹스의 생성상 및 물성에 미치는 WO3 및 Ga2O3의 첨가효과)

  • Shin, Hyunho;Yoon, Sang-Ok;Kim, Shin;Hwang, Injoon
    • Journal of the Korean Ceramic Society
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.206-211
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    • 2013
  • The effect of a $WO_3$ or $Ga_2O_3$ addition on the densification, phase evolution, optical reflectance, and elastic and dielectric properties of $Y_2O_3$-doped AlN ceramics sintered at $1800^{\circ}C$ for 3 h is investigated. The investigated compositions of the additives are 4.5 wt% $Y_2O_3$ (YA), 3.5 wt% $Y_2O_3$-1.0 wt% $Ga_2O_3$ (YGA), and 3.5 wt% $Y_2O_3$-1.0 wt% $WO_3$ (YWA). $YAlO_3$ and $Y_4Al_2O_9$ form as the secondary phases in all of the investigated compositions, whereas $W_2B$ appears additionally in the YWA. In the YGA, Ga is detected in the AlN grains, indicating that the dissolution of $Ga_2O_3$ into the AlN lattice occurs. The addition of $WO_3$ blackens the specimen more significantly than that of $Ga_2O_3$ does. In all of the investigated specimens, the linear shrinkage and the apparent density are above 20 percent and in the range of 3.34-3.37 $g/cm^3$, respectively. The elastic modulus, Poisson's ratio, the dielectric constant, and the dielectric loss are in the ranges of 335-368 GPa, 0.146-0.237, 8.60-8.63, $2.65-3.95{\times}10^{-3}$, respectively. The sinterability and the properties of $Y_2O_3$-doped AlN ceramics are not much altered by the addition of $WO_3$ or $Ga_2O_3$.

Epidemiology of Female Reproductive Cancers in Iran: Results of the Gholestan Population-Based Cancer Registry

  • Taheri, NegarSadat;Fazel, Abdolreza;Mahmoodzadeh, Habibollah;Omranpour, Ramesh;Roshandel, Gholamreza;Gharahjeh, Saeedeh;Sedaghat, Seyed Mehdi;Poorabbasi, Mohammad;Moghaddami, Abbas;Semnani, Shahryar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.20
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    • pp.8779-8782
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    • 2014
  • Background: Malignancies of the female reproductive tract are estimated to be the third most common group of cancers in women. Objectives: We here aimed to present their epidemiological features in Golestan province located in Northeast of Iran. Materials and Methods: Data on primary female reproductive cancers diagnosed between 2004-2010 were obtained from Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). CanReg-4 and SPSS software were used for data entry and analysis. Age standardized incidence rates (ASR) (per 100,000 person-years) were calculated using the world standard population. Poisson regression analysis was used to compare incidence rates. P-values of less than 0.05 were considered as significant. Results: A total of 6,064 cancer cases were registered in Golestan females in the GPCR during 2004-2010, of which 652 cases (11%) were female reproductive cancers. Cancers of the ovary (ASR=6.03) and cervix (ASR=4.97) were the most common. We found significant higher rates in females living in cities than in villages. Our results showed a rapid increase in age specific incidence rates of female reproductive cancers at the age of 30 years. Conclusions: We found significant higher rates of female reproductive cancers among residents of cities than villages. Differences in the prevalence of risk factors including reproductive behavior between the two populations may partly explain such diversity. Our results also showed a rapid increase in incidence rates of these cancers in young age females. Further studies are warranted to determine risk factors of female reproductive cancers in our population.

Paediatric Retinoblastoma in India: Evidence from the National Cancer Registry Programme

  • Rangamani, Sukanya;SathishKumar, Krishnan;Manoharan, N;Julka, Pramod Kumar;Rath, Goura Kishor;Shanta, Viswanathan;Swaminathan, Rajaraman;Rama, Ranganathan;Datta, Karabi;Mandal, Syamsundar;Koyande, Shravani;Deshmane, Vinay;Ganesh, B;Banavali, Shripad D;Badwe, Rajendra A;Ramesh, C;Appaji, Lingappa;Nandakumar, Ambakumar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.4193-4198
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    • 2015
  • Background: Globally, retinoblastoma is the most common primary intraocular malignancy occurring in children. This paper documents the recent incidence rates of retinoblastoma by age and sex groups from the Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs) of Bangalore, Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi and Kolkata using the data from the National Cancer Registry Programme. Materials and Methods: Relative proportions, sex ratio, method of diagnosis, and incidence rates (crude and age standardized) for each PBCR and pooled rates of the five PBCRs were calculated for the years 2005/06 to 2009/10. Standard errors and 95% confidence limits of ASIRs by sex group in each PBCR were calculated using the Poisson distribution. Standardised rate ratios of ASIR by sex group and rate ratios at risk were also calculated. Results: The maximum retinoblastoma cases were in the 0-4 age group, accounting for 78% (females) and 81% (males) of pooled cases from five PBCRs. The pooled crude incidence rate in the 0-14 age group was 3.5 and the pooled ASIR was 4.4 per million. The pooled ASIR in the 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 age group were 9.6, 2.0 and 0.1 respectively. The M/F ratio in Chennai (1.9) and Bangalore PBCRs (2.0) was much higher than the other PBCRs. Among the PBCRs, the highest incidence rate in 0-4 age group was found in males in Chennai (21.7 per million), and females in Kolkata (18.9 per million). There was a distinct variation in incidence rates in the PBCRs in different geographic regions of India.