• Title/Summary/Keyword: POISSON

Search Result 2,060, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Reliability Analysis Using Field-Data of 5.56 mm Rifle (야전운용제원을 이용한 5.56 mm 소총 신뢰도 분석)

  • Shin, Tae-Sung;Seo, Hyun-Soo;Lee, Ho-Jun;Choi, Si-Young;Gil, Hyeon-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.584-591
    • /
    • 2020
  • Reliability is an important factor in weapons systems. Low reliability causes the weapons system to fail to function properly, which directly leads to the weakening of combat capability. This paper classifies the structure of the 5.56 mm rifle, which is currently used by the Korean army, into a total of seven assemblies and describes the eight functions necessary for the rifle to operate normally. In addition, the concept of reliability was defined as the MRBF, and the Poisson process model and TTT plot were explained as a reliability analysis theory for the repair function system. Next, the field-data obtained by defining failure as the replacement of parts other than periodic exchange of parts were refined, and the reliability was analyzed by entering the refined field operation specifications into the Minitab program. As a result, the reliability of the rifle was determined to be 251.73. The assembly parts that required improvement was identified as the barrel, lower body, and butt stock assembly, and 10 detailed parts needed to be improved. Finally, the limits of the reliability analysis using the field-data currently available for small caliber firearms were considered.

Guaranteed Minimum Accumulated Benefit in Variable Annuities and Jump Risk (변액연금보험의 최저연금적립금보증과 점프리스크)

  • Kwon, Yongjae;Kim, So-Yeun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.20 no.11
    • /
    • pp.281-291
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study used Gauss-Poisson jump diffusion process on standard assets to estimate the statutory reserves of Variable Annuity (VA) guarantees specified in Korean bylaw of insurance supervision and calculated guarantee fees and risks based on the model to see the effect of considering the jumps. Financial assets, except KOSPI 200, have fat-tailed return distributions, which is an indirect evidence of discontinuous jumps. In the case of a domestic stock index and foreign stock indexes(Korean Won), guarantee fees and risks decrease when jumps are considered in models of underlying assets. This is explained by decreases in standard deviations after the jump diffusion is considered. On the other hand, in the case of domestic bond indexes and a foreign bond index(Korean Won), guarantee fees and risks tend to increase when jumps are considered. Results from a foreign stock index(US Dollar) and a foreign bond index(US Dollar) were opposite to those from the same kinds of Korean Won indexes. We conclude that VA guarantee fees and risks may be under or over estimated when jumps are not considered in models of underlying assets.

An Experimental Study on the Engineering Properties Of Rice-Straw Ash Concrete (볏짚재를 혼입(混入)한 콘크리트의 공학적(工學的) 특성(特性)에 관한 실험적(實驗的) 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Hee Man;Min, Jeong Ki;Kim, Young Ik;Seo, Dae Seuk;Nam, Ki Sung;Sung, Chan Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.65-70
    • /
    • 1999
  • This study is performed to evaluate the engineering properties of rice-straw ash concrete using normal portland cement, natural aggregates and rice-straw ash. The following conclusion are drawn; 1. The dynamic modulus of elasticity is in the range of $289{\times}10^3{\sim}345{\times}10^3kgf/cm^2$, which is showed about the same compared to that of the normal cement concrete. The highest dynamic modulus is showed by 5% rice-straw ash filled rice-straw ash concrete 2. The static modulus of elasticity is in the range of $268{\times}10^3{\sim}335{\times}10^3kgf/cm^2$, which is showed about the same compared to that of the normal cement concrete. The dynamic modulus is increased approximately 3~10% than that of the static modulus. 3. The poisson's number of rice-straw ash concrete is less than that of the normal cement concrete. 4. Accordingly, if we use suitable quantity of rice-straw ash as a replacement of cement, it will greatly improve engineering properties of concrete.

  • PDF

Analysis of Pull-out Behavior of Tunnel-type Anchorage for Suspended Bridge Using 2-D Model Tests and Numerical Analysis (2차원 모형실험 및 수치해석을 통한 현수교 터널식 앵커리지의 인발거동 특성 분석)

  • Seo, Seunghwan;Park, Jaehyun;Lee, Sungjune;Chung, Moonkyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.34 no.10
    • /
    • pp.61-74
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this study, the pull-out behavior of tunnel type anchorage of suspension bridges was analyzed based on results from laboratory size model tests and numerical analysis. Tunnel type anchorage has found its applications occasionally in both domestic and oversea projects, therefore design method including failure mode and safety factor is yet to be clearly established. In an attempt to improve the design method, scaled model tests were conducted by employing simplified shapes and structure of the Ulsan grand bridge's anchorage which was the first case history of its like in Korea. In the model tests, the anchorage body and the surrounding rocks were made by using gypsum mixture. The pull-out behavior was investigated under plane strain conditions. The results of the model tests showed that the tunnel type anchorage underwent wedge shape failure. For the verification of the model tests, numerical analysis was carried out using ABAQUS, a finite element analysis program. The failure behavior predicted by numerical analysis was consistent with that by the model tests. The result of numerical analysis also showed that the effect of Poisson's ratio was negligible, and that a plugging type failure mode could occur only when the strength of the surrounding rocks was 10 times larger than that of anchorage body.

Changes in Mortality Inequality in Relation to the South Korean Economic Crisis: Use of Area-based Socioeconomic Position (경제위기에 따른 사망률 불평등의 변화: 지역의 사회경제적 위치 지표의 활용)

  • Yun, Sung-Cheol;Hwang, In-A;Lee, Moo-Song;Lee, Sang-Il;Jo, Min-Woo;Lee, Min-Jung;Khang, Young-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.38 no.3
    • /
    • pp.359-365
    • /
    • 2005
  • Objectives : An abrupt economic decline may widen the socioeconomic differences in health between the advantaged and disadvantaged in a society. The aim of this study was to examine whether the South Korean economic crisis of 1997-98 affected the socioeconomic inequality from all-causes and from cause-specific mortality between 1995 and 2001. Methods : Population denominators were obtained from the registration population data, with the number of death (numerators) calculated from raw death certificate data. The indicator used to assess the geographic socioeconomic position was the per capita regional tax revenue. Administrative districts (Si-Gun-Gu) were ranked according to this socioeconomic measure, and divided into equal population size quintiles on the basis of this ranking. The sex- and 5-year age-specific numbers of the population and deaths were used to compute the sex- and age-adjusted mortality rates (via direct standardization method), standardized mortality ratios (via indirect standardization methods) and relative indices of inequality (RII) (via Poisson regression). Results : Geographic inequalities from all-causes of mortality, as measured by RII, did not increase as a result of the economic crisis (from 1998-2001). This was true for both sexes and all age groups. However, the cause-specific analyses showed that socioeconomic inequalities in mortalities from external causes were affected by South Korean economic crisis. For males, the RIIs for mortalities from transport accidents and intentional self-harm increased between 1995 and 2001. For females, the RII for mortality from intentional self-harm increased during the same period. Conclusions : The South Korean economic crisis widened the geographic inequality in mortalities from major external causes. This increased inequality requires social discourse and counter policies with respect to the rising health inequalities in the South Korean society.

A Modified Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI) and Its Application (수정 표준강수지수의 제안 및 적용)

  • Ryoo, So-Ra;Yoo, Chul-Sang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.37 no.7
    • /
    • pp.553-567
    • /
    • 2004
  • This study proposes a modified standardized precipitation index (MSPI) which was developed to make up for the weakness of the SPI. Both MSPI and SPI are applied to the monthly rainfall at the Seoul station for the drought analysis. The MSPI proposed is nothing but the SPI for the normalized monthly rainfall, that is, an extra step for normalizing the monthly rainfall is included before driving the SPI. Thus, the MSPI has a structure to transfer the relative amount of rainfall to the next months, but the SPI the absolute amount of rainfall. The monthly rainfall data at the Seoul station used in this study are those collected from 1777 to 1996. The rainfall data collected before and after the long dry period around 1900 were also analyzed separately for the comparison. The results derived are as follows. (1) The MSPI was found to be more practical compared to the SPI. This was assured by comparing the analysis results of the data including and excluding the long dry period around 1900. (2) The MSPI is found to be less sensitive than the SPI to the extreme rainfall events. For the MSPI, the occurrence probabilities of moderate drought before and after the long dry period are similar, but those for the extreme drought becomes slightly decreased after the long dry period (from about 18 years of return period before the long dry period to the 16 years after the long dry period). However, the duration becomes longer after the long dry period (the duration for the extreme drought has been increased from 2 to 2.5 months after the long dry period). This results can also be compared with a rather unreasonable result derived by applying the SPI (for the extreme drought the return period has been decreased to be from 25 to 10 years after the long dry period, on the other hand the duration has been increased from 1.5 months to 3.5 months). So, we man conclude that the MSPI is more practical for the drought analysis that the SPI.

Roles of Individual- and Country-level Social Capital in Entrepreneurial Activities of Crowdfunding (크라우드펀딩 창업 활동에서 개인 및 국가 수준 사회적 자본의 역할)

  • Oh, Sehwan;Rho, Sungho
    • The Journal of Information Systems
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-19
    • /
    • 2017
  • Purpose This study examines the roles of individual- and country-level social capital in entrepreneurial activities from the context of crowdfunding. Design/methodology/approach Two primary sources were used for data collection. From Kickstarter, the largest U.S.-based crowdfunding platform, this study obtained 15,716 crowdfunding projects and individual-level social capital. For country-level social capital, the social capital index from the 2016 Legatum Prosperity Index was utilized. By matching individual- and country-level social capital for each crowdfunding project, this research estimates the role of social capital in entrepreneurial activities at the individual and country level using the Poisson regression and the negative binomial regression. Findings Individual-level social capital measured by the number of Facebook friends, the number of other crowdfunding projects that a crowdfunding project founder invested in, and the word count of the description of a crowdfunding project are positively associated with the number of crowdfunding projects created by founders. The country-level social capital measured by aggregated social capital index is also positively associated with the number of crowdfunding projects created by founders. Both individual- and country-level social capital have a positive impact on entrepreneurial activities in terms of the creation of new crowdfunding projects.

Identification of Subsurface Discontinuities via Analyses of Borehole Synthetic Seismograms (시추공 합성탄성파 기록을 통한 지하 불연속 경계면의 파악)

  • Kim, Ji-Soo;Lee, Jae-Young;Seo, Yong-Seok;Ju, Hyeon-Tae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.457-465
    • /
    • 2013
  • We integrated and correlated datasets from surface and subsurface geophysics, drilling cores, and engineering geology to identify geological interfaces and characterize the joints and fracture zones within the rock mass. The regional geometry of a geologically weak zone was investigated via a fence projection of electrical resistivity data and a borehole image-processing system. Subsurface discontinuities and intensive fracture zones within the rock mass are delineated by cross-hole seismic tomography and analyses of dip directions in rose diagrams. The dynamic elastic modulus is studied in terms of the P-wave velocity and Poisson's ratio. Subsurface discontinuities, which are conventionally identified using the N value and from core samples, can now be identified from anomalous reflection coefficients (i.e., acoustic impedance contrast) calculated using a pair of well logs, comprising seismic velocity from suspension-PS logging and density from logging. Intensive fracture zones identified in the synthetic seismogram are matched to core loss zones in the drilling core data and to a high concentration of joints in the borehole imaging system. The upper boundaries of fracture zones are correlated to strongly negative amplitude in the synthetic trace, which is constructed by convolution of the optimal Ricker wavelet with a reflection coefficient. The standard deviations of dynamic elastic moduli are higher for fracture zones than for acompact rock mass, due to the wide range of velocities resulting from the large numbers of joints and fractures within the zone.

Short-term Effects of Ambient Air Pollution on Emergency Department Visits for Asthma: An Assessment of Effect Modification by Prior Allergic Disease History

  • Noh, Juhwan;Sohn, Jungwoo;Cho, Jaelim;Cho, Seong-Kyung;Choi, Yoon Jung;Kim, Changsoo;Shin, Dong Chun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.49 no.5
    • /
    • pp.329-341
    • /
    • 2016
  • Objectives: The goal of this study was to investigate the short-term effect of ambient air pollution on emergency department (ED) visits in Seoul for asthma according to patients' prior history of allergic diseases. Methods: Data on ED visits from 2005 to 2009 were obtained from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. To evaluate the risk of ED visits for asthma related to ambient air pollutants (carbon monoxide [CO], nitrogen dioxide [$NO_2$], ozone [$O_3$], sulfur dioxide [$SO_2$], and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <$10{\mu}m$ [$PM_{10}$]), a generalized additive model with a Poisson distribution was used; a single-lag model and a cumulative-effect model (average concentration over the previous 1-7 days) were also explored. The percent increase and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated for each interquartile range (IQR) increment in the concentration of each air pollutant. Subgroup analyses were done by age, gender, the presence of allergic disease, and season. Results: A total of 33 751 asthma attack cases were observed during the study period. The strongest association was a 9.6% increase (95% CI, 6.9% to 12.3%) in the risk of ED visits for asthma per IQR increase in $O_3$ concentration. IQR changes in $NO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ concentrations were also significantly associated with ED visits in the cumulative lag 7 model. Among patients with a prior history of allergic rhinitis or atopic dermatitis, the risk of ED visits for asthma per IQR increase in $PM_{10}$ concentration was higher (3.9%; 95% CI, 1.2% to 6.7%) than in patients with no such history. Conclusions: Ambient air pollutants were positively associated with ED visits for asthma, especially among subjects with a prior history of allergic rhinitis or atopic dermatitis.

Development of Evaluation Model for Black Spot Improvement Priorities by using Emperical Bayes Method (EB기법을 이용한 사고잦은 곳 개선사업 우선순위 판정기법 개발)

  • Jeong, Seong-Bong;Hwang, Bo-Hui;Seong, Nak-Mun;Lee, Seon-Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.81-90
    • /
    • 2009
  • The safety management of a road network comprises four basic inter-related components:identification of sites(black spot) requiring safety investigation, diagnosis of safety problems, selection of feasible treatments for potential treatment candidates, and prioritization of treatments given limited budgets(Persaud, 2001). Identification process of selecting black spot is very important for efficient investigation of sites. In this study, the accident prediction model for EB method was developed by using accident data and geometric conditions of black spots selected from four-leg signalized intersections in In-cheon City for three years (2004-2006). In addition, by comparing the rank nomination technique using EB method to that by using accident counts, we managed to show the problems which the existing method have and the necessity for developing rational prediction model. As a result, in terms of total number of accidents, both the counts predicted by existing non-linear regression model and that by EB method have high good of fitness, but EB method, considering both the accident counts by sites and total number of accident, has better good of fitness than non-linear poison model. According to the result of the comparison of ranks nominated for treatment between two methods, the rank for treatment of almost sites does not change but SeoHae intersection and a few other intersections have significant changes in their rank. This shows that, with the technique proposed in the study, the RTM problem caused by using real accident counts can be overcome.