• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.9
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• pp.384-391
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• 2006

The harmonic currents generated along with the operating speed of electrical railroad traction are very difficult to analyze because of its nonlinear characteristics. This paper therefore presents probabilistic approach for the evaluation of harmonic currents about the operating speed of the arbitrary single traction. To use probabilistic method for railroad system, PDF(Probability Density Function) using measuring data based on the realistic h 따 monic currents per operating speed is calculated. Measuring data of harmonic current per operating speed is obtained using the result data of PSCAD/EMTDC dynamic simulation based on an IAT(Intra Airport Transit) in Incheon International Airport. The means(expected values) and variances of harmonic currents of single traction also are obtained by the PDF of the operating traction speed and harmonic currents. The uncertainty of harmonic currents can be calculated through the mean and variance of PDF. The probability of harmonic currents generated with the operating of arbitrary many tractions is calculated by the convolution of functions. The harmonics of different number of tractions are systematically investigated to assess the TDD(Total Demand Distortion) for the railroad system. The calculation of TDD was carried out using Monte-Carlo Simulations(MSCs) and the results of TDD evaluation of the power quality in the IAT power feeding system.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.623-628
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• 2007

The accurate peak response estimation of a seismically excited structure with frictional damping system(FDS) is very difficult since the structure with FDS shows nonlinear behavior dependent on the structural period, loading characteristics, and relative magnitude between the frictional force and the excitation load. Previous studies have estimated that by replacing a nonlinear system with an equivalent linear one or by employing the response spectrum obtained based on nonlinear time history and statistical analysis. In the case that an earthquake load is defined with probabilistic characteristics, the corresponding response of the structure with FDS has probabilistic distribution. In this study, nonlinear time history analyses were performed for the structure with FDS subjected to artificial earthquake loads generated using Kanai-Tajimi filter. An equation for the probability density function (PDF) of the displacement response is proposed by adapting the PDF of the normal distribution. Finally, coefficients of the proposed PDF are obtained by regression analysis of the statistical distribution of the time history responses. Finally the correlation between PDFs and statistical response distribution is presented.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.207-219
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• 2018

In this study, the ecological flow rate of the Zacco playtypus habitat was simulated based on the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) in reachs of urban and natural stream using the habitat suitability index (HSI) of the probability density function (PDF). To apply this method, PHABSIM model was used in this study. However, in this study, the HSI of the probability density function was developed by adjusting the parameters of the PDF based on Kang (2010) HSI. As a result, the normal distribution is closest to the ecological flow rate of the Kang (2010) in the urban stream. However, the two-parameter log-pearson distribution tended to be the closest in the natural stream. The ecological flow rate was simulated by the HSI and the reach of stream with the PDF. Based on the comparison of simulation results, we propose an ecological flow rate estimation method using probabilistic method.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.383-388
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• 2019

It is essential to reduce the Infra-red signature for increasing ship's survivability in ship design stage. However the ship's IR signature is quite sensitive to the maritime and atmosphere. Therefore, it is very important to select the marine meteorological data to be applied to the signature analysis. In this study, we selected the three meteorological sample sets from the population of the Korea Meteorological Administration's marine environment data in 2017. These samples were selected through the two-dimensional stratified sampling method, taking into account the geopolitical threats of the Korean peninsula and the effective area of the buoy. These sample sets were applied to three naval ships classified by their tonnage, and then the IR signature analysis was performed to derive the Contrast Radiant Intensity (CRI) values. Based on the CRI values, the validity of each sample set was determined by comparing Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF), and Probability Density Function (PDF). Also, we checked the degree of scattering in each sample set and determined the efficiency of analysis time and cost according to marine meteorological sample sets to confirm the possibility of a probabilistic method. Through this process, we selected the standard for optimization of marine meteorological sample for ship IR signature analysis. Based on this optimization sample, by applying probabilistic method to the management of IR signature for naval ships, the robust design is possible.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.591-600
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• 2018

The probabilistic characterization of wind field characteristics is a significant task for fatigue reliability assessment of long-span railway bridges in wind-prone regions. In consideration of the effect of wind direction, the stochastic properties of wind field should be represented by a bivariate statistical model of wind speed and direction. This paper presents the construction of the bivariate model of wind speed and direction at the site of a railway arch bridge by use of the long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) data. The wind characteristics are derived by analyzing the real-time wind monitoring data, such as the mean wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method is proposed to formulate the joint distribution model of wind speed and direction. For the probability density function (PDF) of wind speed, a double-parameter Weibull distribution function is utilized, and a von Mises distribution function is applied to represent the PDF of wind direction. The SQP algorithm with multi-start points is used to estimate the parameters in the bivariate model, namely Weibull-von Mises mixture model. One-year wind monitoring data are selected to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method. The optimal model is jointly evaluated by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and coefficient of determination, $R^2$. The obtained results indicate that the proposed SQP algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method can effectively establish the bivariate model of wind speed and direction. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction will facilitate the wind-induced fatigue reliability assessment of long-span bridges.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• v.19 no.1E
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• pp.11-16
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• 2007

Recently, probabilistic neural network (PNN) has been proposed to predict the compressive strength of concrete for the known effect of improvement on PNN by the iteration method. However, an empirical method has been incorporated in the PNN technique to specify its smoothing parameter, which causes significant uncertainty in predicting the compressive strength of concrete. In this study, a modified probabilistic neural network (MPNN) approach is hence proposed. The global probability density function (PDF) of variables is reflected by summing the heterogeneous local PDFs which are automatically determined by the individual standard deviation of each variable. The proposed MPNN is applied to predict the compressive strength of concrete using actual test data from a concrete company. The estimated results of MPNN are compared with those of the conventional PNN. MPNN showed better results than the conventional PNN in predicting the compressive strength of concrete and provided promising results for the probabilistic approach to predict the concrete strength by using the individual standard deviation of a variable.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2003.07a
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• pp.569-571
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• 2003

As a definition of NERC, Available Transfer Capability(ATC) is a measure of the transfer capability remaining in the physical transmission network for the future commercial activity. To calculate ATC, accurate and defensible TTC, CBM and TRM should be calculated in advance. In this paper, we propose a method to quantify TRM using probabilistic load flow based on the method of moment. Generation output, bus voltages, loads, and line outages are considered as complex random variables (CRV) to take into account for uncertainties related to the transmission network conditions. Probability Density Function (PDF) of line flow at the most limiting line is used to quantify TRM with the desired probabilistic margin. Suggested method is compared with the results from conventional CPF method and verified using 24 bus MRTS, and the suggested method based on PLF shows efficiency and flexibility for the quantification of TRM compared with the conventional method.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.667-673
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• 2010

Recently, structures are becoming longer and higher because of the developments of new materials and construction techniques. However, such modern structures are more susceptible to excessive structural vibrations which cause deterioration in serviceability and structural safety. A modified probabilistic neural network(MPNN) approach is proposed to reduce the structural vibration. In this study, the global probability density function(PDF) of MPNN is reflected by summing the heterogeneous local PDFs automatically determined in the individual standard deviation of each variable. The proposed algorithm is applied for the vibration control of a three-story shear building model under Northridge earthquake. When the control results of the MPNN are compared with those of conventional PNN to verify the control performance, the MPNN controller proves to be more effective than PNN methods in decreasing the structural responses.

• Korean Journal of Metals and Materials
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• v.48 no.9
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• pp.791-797
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• 2010

The creep crack growth rate (da/dt) of the Cr-Mo steels tested by pre-crack and the voltage (or resistance) variables were related into fracture parameter (Ct), crack growth coefficient (H), and an exponent (q) in the parts of Base, weld and HAZ. The fracture parameter (Ct) has various variables relating to the specimen and crack shape, applied stress, and creep strain curve. The H and q was inferred by OLS regression (ordinary least square method), and the H values were solved in statistics and probability assessment, which were attained fromPDF's distributions (probability density function). The HAZ part has the highest value of q by OLS regression and the widest distribution of H by PDF of WEIBULL, which means that the crack sensitivity of HAZ should be cautioned against the creep crack growth and failure.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.298-298
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• 2021

본 연구에서는 국내 6개 지역 서울, 강릉, 대전, 광주, 부산, 제주의 30년 치 시강우 자료에 해석적 확률모형(Analytical Probabilistic Models) 방법을 적용하여 도시 홍수 저감을 목적으로 하는 저류시설 설계를 위한 유출량 예측 정도를 지역별로 비교하고자 하였다. 강우 사상 분포의 해석적 확률모형을 적용하기 위해 무강우 시간을 결정하여 독립 호우를 결정하는데, 자기상관계수와 변동계수를 활용한 무강우 지속시간의 산정(IETD, Interevent Time Definition) 방법을 사용하였다. 해석적 확률모형인 유출량의 확률밀도함수(PDF, Probability Density Function)를 유도하기 위해서 불투수 지역과 투수 지역의 영향을 고려하여 유출계수를 적용하는 강우-유출 관계를 가지고 유출량을 정의하였다. 강우량, 강우 지속시간, 무강우시간과 같은 강우특성은 1변수 지수함수의 PDF를 따른다고 가정하였다. 확률모형 방법의 적합성을 판단하기 위해 결정된 IETD에 따라 각 지역별로 실제 강우 사상을 해석적 모델과 연속모의실험인 SWWM(Storm Water Management Model)에 적용하여 불투수율에 따른 유출량을 산정하였다. 각 방식으로 얻은 유출량 결과는 모든 지역에서 매우 유사하게 나타났고 결론적으로 우리나라에서 도시 홍수 저감을 위한 저류시설의 계획과 설계에 확률모형 방법이 적용 가능하다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.