• Title/Summary/Keyword: Overestimation

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The Interpretation of Different Recreation Benefits According to Time Horizon in the Contingent Valuation Method (가상가치평가법(假想價値評價法)에서 시간범위(時間範圍)에 따른 휴양가치(休養價値)의 차이(差異) 해석(解析))

  • Kim, Joon-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.88 no.1
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    • pp.117-123
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    • 1999
  • Consumer surplus is to be a value concerning a time horizon. Especially it is very important how long time horizon would be chosen in contingent market. This study aimed to provide causes of difference recreation benefits through discount rate in many aspects. The data were collected by personal interviews with visitors in Songnisan National Park. The respondents answered yes or no, dichotomous choice, on recreation benefits according to a chosen time horizon, one year or five years. The probit model was used in the analysis. In order to avoid the truncation bias of upper bound, the median was chosen as the recreation benefits of visitor. As the result, the value was evaluated to be 16,569 Won for one year and 27,111 Won for five years. The discount rate is estimated 153% annually to coincide different recreation benefits. The reasons of the high discount rate were to be interpreted as following five types : (1)uncertainty of future consumption (2)increasing of probability of the substitution owing to increasing of time horizon (3)recognization of different time horizons (4) effect by the price ratio of goods and utility function (5) overestimation of the recreation benefits owing to a basic premium of payment vehicle.

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Design of a TL Personal Dosimeter Identifiable PA Exposure and Development of Its Dose Evaluation Algorithm (후방피폭선량계측이 가능한 TL 개인선량계의 설계 및 선량평가 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kwon, J.W.;Kim, H.K.;Yang, J.S.;Kim, J.L.;Lee, J.K.
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.179-186
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    • 2004
  • A single-dosimeter worn on the anterior surface of body of a worker was found to provide significant underestimation of dose to the worker when radiation comes from behind of the human body. Recently, several researchers suggested that this kind of underestimation can be corrected to a certain extent by using an extra dosimeter on the back. But this multiple dosimetry also has the disadvantages like overestimation lowering work efficiency or cost burden. In this study, a single dosimeter introducing asymmetric filters enabled to identify PA exposure was designed by monte-carlo simulation and experiments and its dose evaluation algorithm for AP-PA mixed radiation field was established. This algorithm was applicable to penetrating radiation which had the effective energy more than 100 keV. Besides, the dosimeter and algorithm in this study were possible to be applied to near PA exposure.

An Evaluation Method of Water Supply Reliability for a Dam by Firm Yield Analysis (보장 공급량 분석에 의한 댐의 물 공급 안전도 평가기법 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Kang, Tae-Uk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.5 s.166
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    • pp.467-478
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    • 2006
  • Water supply reliability for a dam is defined with a concept of probabilistic reliability. An evaluation procedure of the water supply reliability is shown with an analysis of long term firm yield reliability. The water supply reliabilities of Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam were evaluated. To evaluate the water supply reliability, forty one sets of monthly runoff series were generated by SAMS-2000. HEC-5 model was applied to the reservoir simulation to compute the firm yield from a monthly data of time series. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the design runoff data of Soyanggang Dam is evaluated by 80.5 % for a planning period of 50 years. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the historic runoff after the dam construction is evaluated by 53.7 %. The firm yield from the design runoff is 1.491 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft Is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr, additional water of 0.094 billion $m^3$ could be supplied every year with its risk. From the similar procedures, the firm yield from the design runoff of Chungju Dam is evaluated 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 2.960 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft is 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr, water supply insufficiency occurs for all the sets of time series generated. It may result from overestimation of the spring runoff used for design. The procedure shown can be a more objective method to evaluate water supply reliability of a dam.

A Comparison and Analysis of the Levee Height Determination Methods in Korea and the USA (우리나라와 미국의 제방고 산정 기법에 대한 비교 분석)

  • Kang, Tae-Uk;Lee, Sang-Ho;Yu, Kwon-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.497-510
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    • 2011
  • A levee height is determined by adding a deterministic freeboard to a flood water level in Korea. In the USA, a levee height is determined by choosing a value conditionally among the freeboard criteria and the levels resulted from a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method adopts a conditional non-exceedance probability (CNP) which is the probability that the target stage will not be exceeded given a specific flood event. The purpose of the study is to compare Korean criterion for levee height estimation with that of the USA. Levee heights were determined according to the above two criteria at twenty-five cross sections in five streams. The results show that Korean criterion on average yields levee heights 20 cm higher than those calculated by the criterion of the USA. The larger the flood discharges become, the higher the levee height differences are usually. It is caused by the freeboard estimation criterion of Korea that the larger design flood is, the higher freeboard is given. Korean criterion, however, resulted in lower levee heights for smaller streams than those by the criterion of the USA. To sum it up, the Korean levee height criteria can result in overestimation or underestimation depending on flood discharge amount, being compared with the criteria of the USA. The Korean freeboard especially needs to be increased for smaller flood discharges.

Evaluation of Accuracy of Modified Equivalent Linear Method (수정된 등가선형해석기법의 정확성 평가)

  • Jeong, Chang-Gyun;Kwak, Dong-Yeop;Park, Duhee;Kim, Kwangkyun
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2010
  • One-dimensional equivalent linear site response analysis is widely used in practice due to its simplicity, requiring only few input parameters, and low computational cost. The main limitation of the procedure is that it is essentially a linear method, in which the time dependent change in the soil properties cannot be modeled and constant values of shear modulus and damping is used throughout the duration of the analysis. Various forms of modified equivalent linear analyses have been developed to enhance the accuracy of the equivalent linear method by incorporating the dependence of the shear strain with the loading frequency. The methods are identical in that it uses the shear strain Fourier spectrum as the backbone of the analysis, but differ in the method in which the strain Fourier spectrum is smoothed. This study used two domestically measured soil profiles to perform a series of nonlinear, equivalent linear, and modified equivalent linear site response analyses to verify the accuracy of two modified procedures. The results of the analyses indicate that the modified equivalent linear analysis can highly overestimate the amplification of the high frequency components of the ground motion. The degree of overestimation is dependent on the characteristics of the input ground motion. Use of a motion rich in high frequency contents can result in unrealistic response.

Estimation of Specific Yield Using Rainfall and Groundwater Levels at Shallow Groundwater Monitoring Sites (충적층 지하수 관측지점의 강우량 대비 지하수위 변동 자료를 활용한 비산출율 추정)

  • Kim, Gyoobum
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 2010
  • Specific yield is an essential parameter of the water table fluctuation method for recharge calculation. Specific yield is not easily estimated because of limited availability of aquifer test data and soil samples at National Groundwater Monitoring Stations in South Korea. The linear relationship between rainfall and water level rise was used to estimate the specific yields of aquifer for 34 shallow monitoring wells which were grouped into three clusters. In the case of Cluster-1 and Cluster-2, this method was not applicable because of low cross correlation between rainfall and water level rise and also a long lag time of water level rise to rainfall. However, the specific yields for 19 monitoring wells belonging to Cluster-3, which have relatively high cross correlation and short lag time, within 2 days after rainfall, range from 0.06 to 0.27 with mean value of 0.17. These values are within the general range for sand and gravel sediments and similar to those from aquifer test data. A detailed field survey is required to identify monitoring sites that are not greatly affected by pumping, stream flow, evapotranspiration, or delayed response of water levels to rainfall, because these factors may cause overestimation of specific yield estimates.

Exploring the Differences between Adolescents' and Parents' Ratings on Adolescents' Smartphone Addiction

  • Youn, HyunChul;Lee, Soyoung Irene;Lee, So Hee;Kim, Ji-Youn;Kim, Ji-Hoon;Park, Eun Jin;Park, June Sung;Bhang, Soo-Young;Lee, Moon-Soo;Lee, Yeon Jung;Choi, Sang-Cheol;Choi, Tae Young;Lee, A-Reum;Kim, Dae-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Medical Science
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    • v.33 no.52
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    • pp.347.1-347.11
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    • 2018
  • Background: Smartphone addiction has recently been highlighted as a major health issue among adolescents. In this study, we assessed the degree of agreement between adolescents' and parents' ratings of adolescents' smartphone addiction. Additionally, we evaluated the psychosocial factors associated with adolescents' and parents' ratings of adolescents' smartphone addiction. Methods: In total, 158 adolescents aged 12-19 years and their parents participated in this study. The adolescents completed the Smartphone Addiction Scale (SAS) and the Isolated Peer Relationship Inventory (IPRI). Their parents also completed the SAS (about their adolescents), SAS-Short Version (SAS-SV; about themselves), Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). We used the paired t-test, McNemar test, and Pearson's correlation analyses. Results: Percentage of risk users was higher in parents' ratings of adolescents' smartphone addiction than ratings of adolescents themselves. There was disagreement between the SAS and SAS-parent report total scores and subscale scores on positive anticipation, withdrawal, and cyberspace-oriented relationship. SAS scores were positively associated with average minutes of weekday/holiday smartphone use and scores on the IPRI and father's GAD-7 and PHQ-9 scores. Additionally, SAS-parent report scores showed positive associations with average minutes of weekday/holiday smartphone use and each parent's SAS-SV, GAD-7, and PHQ-9 scores. Conclusion: The results suggest that clinicians need to consider both adolescents' and parents' reports when assessing adolescents' smartphone addiction, and be aware of the possibility of under- or overestimation. Our results cannot only be a reference in assessing adolescents' smartphone addiction, but also provide inspiration for future studies.

The Development of Earthenware Kilns in Bongsan-ri Archaeological Site, Osong: Implications for Pre- and Post-1950 AD Absolute Age Determination (AD 1950년 전후 고고유적의 절대연대측정에 대한 고찰: 오송 봉산리 옹기가마 유적을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Myung Jin;Son, Myoung Soo;Kim, Tae Hong;Sung, Ki Seok
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.481-492
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    • 2018
  • We conducted TL/OSL dating for the earthenware kilns in the Bongsan-ri archaeological site, Osong, which was occupied from the late nineteenth to the late twentieth century. With the SAR-TL/OSL method, paleodose was determined from the equivalent dose during the burial period($ED_{burial}$), the background dose($ED_{BG}$), the fading correction factor(f), and the overestimation correction factor(C). The annual dose rates and their provenance were evaluated from the measurement of natural radionuclides $^{238}U$, $^{232}Th$, and $^{40}K$. Because the comprehensive absolute age was provided by combining the resulting TL/OSL and radiocarbon data, we concluded that, for the absolute chronology of a modern archaeological site, TL/OSL dating and radiocarbon dating must be carried out together and summed. The construction and occupation of earthenware kilns in the Bongsan-ri site had changed from stage I (No.5, 6 kilns), to stage II (No.1, 2, 3 kilns), to stage III (No.4) in chronological order. When Bayesian statistics were applied, we found that the absolute ages of occupation for stages I, II, and III correspond to AD $1910{\pm}23$, AD $1970{\pm}10$, and AD $1987{\pm}4$. These results were in good agreement with the archaeological context or chronology.

Verification of Planetary Boundary Layer Height for Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) Using the Winter Season Intensive Observation Data during ICE-POP 2018 (ICE-POP 2018기간 동계집중관측자료를 활용한 국지수치모델(LDAPS)의 행성경계층고도 검증)

  • In, So-Ra;Nam, Hyoung-Gu;Lee, Jin-Hwa;Park, Chang-Geun;Shim, Jae-Kwan;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.369-382
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    • 2018
  • Planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), produced by the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS), was verified using RawinSonde (RS) data obtained from observation at Daegwallyeong (DGW) and Sokcho (SCW) during the International Collaborative Experiments for Pyeongchang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018). The PBLH was calculated using RS data by applying the bulk Richardson number and the parcel method. This calculated PBLH was then compared to the values produced by LDAPS. The PBLH simulations for DGW and SCW were generally underestimation. However, the PBLH was an overestimation from surface to 200 m and 450 m at DGW and SCW, respectively; this result of model's failure to correctly simulate the Surface Boundary Layer (SBL) and the Mixing Layer (ML) as the PBLH. When the accuracy of the PBLH simulation is low, large errors are seen in the mid- and low-level humidity. The highest frequencies of Planetary boundary layer (PBL) types, calculated by the LDAPS at DGW and SCW, were presented as types Ι and II, respectively. Analysis of meteorological factors according to the PBL types indicate that the PBLH of the existing stratocumulus were overestimated when the mid- and low-level humidity errors were large. If the instabilities of the surface and vertical mixing into clouds are considered important factors affecting the estimation of PBLH into model, then mid- and low-level humidity should also be considered important factors influencing PBLH simulation performance.

Comparison of CH4 Emission by Open-path and Closed Chamber Methods in the Paddy Rice Fields (벼논에서 open-path와 closed chamber 방법 간 메탄 배출량 비교)

  • Jeong, Hyun-cheol;Choi, Eun-jung;Kim, Gun-yeob;Lee, Sun-il;Lee, Jong-sik
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.507-516
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    • 2018
  • The closed chamber method, which is one of the most commonly used method for measuring greenhouse gases produced in rice paddy fields, has limitations in measuring dynamic $CH_4$ flux with spatio-temporal constrains. In order to deal with the limitation of the closed chamber method, some studies based on open-path of eddy covariance method have been actively conducted recently. The aim of this study was to compare the $CH_4$ fluxes measured by open-path and closed chamber method in the paddy rice fields. The open-path, one of the gas ($CO_2$, $CH_4$ etc.) analysis methods, is technology where a laser beam is emitted from the source passes through the open cell, reflecting multiple times from the two mirrors, and then detecting. The $CH_4$ emission patterns by these two methods during rice cultivation season were similar, but the total $CH_4$ emission measured by open-path method were 31% less than of the amount measured by closed chamber. The reason for the difference in $CH_4$ emission was due to overestimation by closed chamber and underestimation by open-path. The closed chamber method can overestimate $CH_4$ emissions due to environmental changes caused by high temperature and light interruption by acrylic partition in chamber. On the other hand, the open-path method for eddy covariance can underestimate its emission because it assumes density fluctuations and horizontal homogeneous terrain negligible However, comparing $CH_4$ fluxes at the same sampling time (AM 10:30-11:00, 30-min fluxes) showed good agreements ($r^2=0.9064$). The open-path measurement technique is expected to be a good way to compensate for the disadvantage of the closed chamber method because it can monitor dynamic $CH_4$ fluctuation even if data loss is taken into account.