• Title/Summary/Keyword: Over-fitting

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A Study on the Evaluation of Areal Precipitation in Korea. (한국 면적 강우량 산정에 관한 연구<월별, 계절별 및 연간우량 중심으로>)

  • 정문교;심재설
    • Water for future
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 1981
  • This study is to evaluate the areal precipitation from the basic data groups of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfalls over all ma in stations in Korea. The evaluating pocesses are performed through the point and regional frequency analysis from the basic data. The basic data groups are divided into two periods-the first(1916-1944) and the second (1960-1979)-which are compared with each other. In the point frequecny analysis, the variable transformation method is applied to the best fitting distribution, and the normal fittings are established by using the Chisquare test method. In the regional frequency analysis, the geomorphologic factors and hydrometeorological factors are taken into consideration when dividing into five zones and Thiessen method and the Isohyetal method are applied. The results of this study are as follows: 1)The areal precipitation values of the first period are about 70-80mm less than that of the second period for the whole of Korea. Therefore, a new precipitation value of 1180mm is considered more suitable than the value of 1159mm, which has been up till now. 2)As the annual areal precipitiation values areevaluated over the five divide zones, it tis noticed that the difference between the values of the first period and the second is the largest in spring (to the extent of 5 times that in the other seasonas). Thereform it is considered that this result is necessary for the establishment of a timely insurance plan for the water resources. 3)The application of the Isohyetal method through the division of Korea into five zones is considered to be a reasonable procedure in the analysis of areal precipitation.

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Spatial Data Analysis for the U.S. Regional Income Convergence,1969-1999: A Critical Appraisal of $\beta$-convergence (미국 소득분포의 지역적 수렴에 대한 공간자료 분석(1969∼1999년) - 베타-수렴에 대한 비판적 검토 -)

  • Sang-Il Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.212-228
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    • 2004
  • This paper is concerned with an important aspect of regional income convergence, ${\beta}$-convergence, which refers to the negative relationship between initial income levels and income growth rates of regions over a period of time. The common research framework on ${\beta}$-convergence which is based on OLS regression models has two drawbacks. First, it ignores spatially autocorrelated residuals. Second, it does not provide any way of exploring spatial heterogeneity across regions in terms of ${\beta}$-convergence. Given that empirical studies on ${\beta}$-convergence need to be edified by spatial data analysis, this paper aims to: (1) provide a critical review of empirical studies on ${\beta}$-convergence from a spatial perspective; (2) investigate spatio-temporal income dynamics across the U.S. labor market areas for the last 30 years (1969-1999) by fitting spatial regression models and applying bivariate ESDA techniques. The major findings are as follows. First, the hypothesis of ${\beta}$-convergence was only partially evidenced, and the trend substantively varied across sub-periods. Second, a SAR model indicated that ${\beta}$-coefficient for the entire period was not significant at the 99% confidence level, which may lead to a conclusion that there is no statistical evidence of regional income convergence in the US over the last three decades. Third, the results from bivariate ESDA techniques and a GWR model report that there was a substantive level of spatial heterogeneity in the catch-up process, and suggested possible spatial regimes. It was also observed that the sub-periods showed a substantial level of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in ${\beta}$-convergence: the catch-up scenario in a spatial sense was least pronounced during the 1980s.

Dynamic Nonlinear Prediction Model of Univariate Hydrologic Time Series Using the Support Vector Machine and State-Space Model (Support Vector Machine과 상태공간모형을 이용한 단변량 수문 시계열의 동역학적 비선형 예측모형)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.3B
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2006
  • The reconstruction of low dimension nonlinear behavior from the hydrologic time series has been an active area of research in the last decade. In this study, we present the applications of a powerful state space reconstruction methodology using the method of Support Vector Machines (SVM) to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) volume. SVMs are machine learning systems that use a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space. SVMs are optimized by minimizing a bound on a generalized error (risk) measure, rather than just the mean square error over a training set. The utility of this SVM regression approach is demonstrated through applications to the short term forecasts of the biweekly GSL volume. The SVM based reconstruction is used to develop time series forecasts for multiple lead times ranging from the period of two weeks to several months. The reliability of the algorithm in learning and forecasting the dynamics is tested using split sample sensitivity analyses, with a particular interest in forecasting extreme states. Unlike previously reported methodologies, SVMs are able to extract the dynamics using only a few past observed data points (Support Vectors, SV) out of the training examples. Considering statistical measures, the prediction model based on SVM demonstrated encouraging and promising results in a short-term prediction. Thus, the SVM method presented in this study suggests a competitive methodology for the forecast of hydrologic time series.

Infrared Characteristics of Some Flash Light Sources (섬광의 적외선 특성 연구)

  • Lim, Sang-Yeon;Park, Seung-Man
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2016
  • To effectively utilize a flash and predict its effects on an infrared device, it is essential to know the infrared characteristics of the flash source. In this paper, a study of the IR characteristics of flash light sources is carried out. The IR characteristics of three flash sources, of which two are combustive and the other is explosive, are measured with an IR characteristic measurement system over the middle- and long-wavelength infrared ranges. From the measurements, the radiances over the two IR ranges and the radiative temperatures of the flashes are extracted. The IR radiance of flash A is found to be the strongest among the three, followed by those of sources C and B. It is also shown that the IR radiance of flash A is about 10 times stronger than that of flash B, even though these two sources are the same type of flash with the same powder. This means that the IR radiance intensity of a combustive flash source depends only on the amount of powder, not on the characteristics of the powder. From the measured radiance over MWIR and LWIR ranges for each flashes, the radiative temperatures of the flashes are extracted by fitting the measured data to blackbody radiance. The best-fit radiative temperatures (equivalent to black-body temperatures) of the three flash sources A, B, and C are 3300, 1120, and 1640 K respectively. From the radiance measurements and radiative temperatures of the three flash sources, it is shown that a combustive source radiates more IR energy than an explosive one; this mean, in turn, that the effects of a combustive flash on an IR device are more profound than those of an explosive flash source. The measured IR radiances and radiative temperatures of the flash sources in this study can be used to estimate the effects of flashes on various IR devices, and play a critical role for the modeling and simulation of the effects of a flash source on various IR devices.

Characterization of Thermal Degradation of Polymide 66 Composite: Relationship between Lifetime Prediction and Activation Energy (폴리아미드 66 복합소재의 열 열화 특성: 수명 예측과 활성화 에너지의 상관관계)

  • Jung, Won-Young;Weon, Jong-Il
    • Polymer(Korea)
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.712-720
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    • 2012
  • Thermal degradation for glass fiber-reinforced polyamide 66 composite (PA 66) with respect of thermal exposure time has been investigated using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. As the thermal exposure time was prolonged, a slight increase in tensile strength for only initial stage and afterward, a proportional decrease of tensile strength was observed. These results can be explained by the increase of crystallinity, followed by the increase of crosslinking density, chain scission and the decrease in chain mobility, due to thermal oxidation with the exposure time. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy results showed the increase of ketone peak and silica peak on the surface of thermally exposed PA 66. In addition, the thermal decomposition kinetics of PA 66 was analyzed using thermogravimetric analysis at three different heating rates. The relationship between activation energy and lifetime-prediction of PA 66 was investigated by several methodologies, such as statistical tool, UL 746B, Ozawa and Kissinger. The activation energy determined by thermogravimetric analysis had a relatively large value compared with that from the accelerated test. This may result in over-estimating the lifetime of PA 66. In this study, a master curve of exponential fitting has been developed to extrapolate the activation energy at various service temperatures.

Analytical Approach for the Noise Properties and Geometric Scheme of Industrial CR Images according to Radiation Intensity (산업용 CR영상의 방사선 강도에 따른 잡음특성과 기하학적 구도형성의 해석적 접근)

  • Hwang, Jung-Won;Hwang, Jae-Ho;Park, Sang-Ki
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2009
  • In this paper we investigate an analytical approach for noise properties and geometric structure in Computed Radiography(CR) images of industrial steel-tubes. Over thirty diverse radiographic images are sampled from industrial radiography measurements according to radiation intensity. Each image consists of three regions; background, thickness and inner-tube. Among these the region of inner-tube is selected for the object of analysis. Geometric structure which includes the noise generation is analyzed by the statistical and functional methodology. The analysis is carried on spacially and line by line. It verifies the geometrical transfigure from the circle configuration of steel-tube and noise variation. The estimation of fitting function and its error are the geometric factors. The statistics such as standard deviation, mean and signal-to-noise ratio are noise parameters for discrimination. These factors are considered under the intensity variation which is the penetrative strength of radiation. The analysing results show that the original geometry of circle is preserved in the form of elliptic or short/long diameter circle, and the noise deviation has increased inverse proportional to the radiation intensity.

Study on Evaluation Method of Flow Characteristics in Steady Flow Bench(4) - Velocity Profile(2) (정상유동 장치에서 유동 특성 평가 방법에 대한 연구(4) - 유속분포(2))

  • Park, Chanjun;Sung, Jaeyong;Ohm, Inyong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.242-254
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    • 2016
  • This paper is the forth investigation on the evaluation methods of flow characteristics in a steady flow bench. In the previous works, it was concluded that the assumption of the solid rotation might cause serious problems and both of the eccentricity and the velocity profile distort the flow characteristics when using the ISM at 1.75B plane. Also particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurement at this position showed that the real velocity profile was far from the assumption of ISM evaluation. In this paper, the planar velocity profiles were measure from 1.75B to 6.00B position by PIV and the characteristics were examined according to the valve angles and lifts for further investigations about the effect of the position on the velocity profile. The results show that $26^{\circ}$ valve angle is always an unique exceptional case in all aspects. If the valve angle is $21^{\circ}$ and below, the planar velocity profiles according to the lift and the position are similar to each other, however, the tangential velocity curves along with the radial direction have common tendencies up to $16^{\circ}$ angle. Also the well arranged swirl behaviors are generally observed at the position above 3.00B and the velocity contour lines come closer to the concentric circle as the valve lift increases. In addition, the gradient of tangential velocity along with the radial direction from the swirl center becomes stable and constant as the position goes downstream. Concurrently the velocity gradient is larger to the eccentric direction of the center. In the meantime the tangential velocity curves along with the radial direction are irregular and various at 1.75B, however, they become regular and reach higher level as the evaluation position goes downstream. At this time the curves of 4.50B are the best fitted to the ideal one. On the other hand in an exceptional case, $26^{\circ}$, the velocity contours are very complicated over 6mm valve lift regardless the position and the gradient increases to the opposite direction of the eccentric center. Also, 6.00B is a best fitting position in the geometrical cylinder center base. With respect to the swirl center, the distribution range of centers for 1.75B is different to that for the other positions and the eccentricities of this plane are larger regardless the valve angle. After 1.75B, there is no certain tendency in the center position change according to the valve angle and lift. Additionally, the eccentricities are not sufficiently small to neglecting the effect on ISM measurement.

Effects of Wearing between Respirators and Glasses Simultaneously on Physical and Visual Discomforts and Quantitative Fit Factors (안면부 여과식 방진마스크와 안경 동시 착용 시 불편감과 밀착계수 비교)

  • Eoh, Won Souk;Choi, Youngbo;Shin, Chang Sub
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.52-60
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    • 2018
  • This study compares the differences of the fit factor by the order of wearing preference between Particulate filtering facepiece respirators(PFFR) and glasses when participants wore simultaneously and a survey of physical and visual complaint. Recognition level about fit of respirators was investigated and the educational (before- and after-) effect of the fit factor. When participants wore PFFR and glasses, physical complaints were nose pressure, slipping, nose and ear pressure, ear pressure and rim loosen, the most highly physical complaints were nose pressure. Visual complaints were demister, blurry vision, dizziness, visual field, and lens dirty, the most highly visual complaints were demister. But, there was significant difference in physical complaint such as nose pressure(10.3%), slipping (23.0%), nose and ear pressure(14.3%), and rim loosen(16.2%), visual complaint such as visual field(13.8%) and lens dirty(32.4%). For the recognition of fit of respirators, respirators fitness, leak site, an initial point and an object, faulty factor, recognition level was higher. Fit factor was increased after education of proper wearing of respirator. Change of the fit factor was smaller compared to the normal breathing and after 6 actions in case of after education. Questionnaire consisted of general characteristics and physical/visual complaint, recognition of fit. Complaints were measured after the QNFT with multiple choices. Quantitative fit factor was measured by device and compared the result of (before- and after-) educational effect. Also, we selected to 6 actions (Normal breathing, Deep breathing, Bending over, Turning head side to side, Moving head up and down, Normal breathing) among 8 actions OSHA QNFT (Quantitative Fit testing) protocol to measure the fit factors. The fit factor was higher after the training (p=0.000). Descriptive statistics, paired t-test, and Wilcoxon analysis were performed to describe the result of questionnaire and fit test. (P=0.05) Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the quantitative research such as training program and glasses fitting factor about the wearing of PFFR and glasses simultaneously.

A Study on Weight Control Behaviour, Eating Habits and Health-related Life Habits according to Obesity Degree by Body Fat Percentage among Middle-aged Women in Gunsan City (군산시 중년여성의 체지방률에 의한 비만도 분류에 따른 체중조절 행동, 식습관 및 건강관련 생활습관에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Hye-Soon
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.227-239
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to compare weight control behaviour, eating habits and health-related life habits according to the obesity degree by body fat percentage (%Fat) among middle-aged women. The subjects were 170 middle-aged women who lived Gunsan City, and they were assigned to one of the following groups based on their %Fat; normal weight group (18% - < 28%), overweight group (28% - < 33%) and obesity group (over 33%). The height, body weight, %Fat, the circumference of waist and hip of them were measured. Eating habits and health-related life habits were evaluated based on questionnaires. The results were as follows. Their weight, %Fat, body mass index (BMI), relative body weight (RBW), waist, hip, and waist-hip ratio (WHR) were significantly higher in the obesity subjects when compared to the normal and overweight subjects. Self-perception for weight (p < 0.001), desire for weight control (p < 0.01), and reasons of weight control (p < 0.05) were different among three groups. The main skipped meal was breakfast (67.9%), reasons of skipping meals were different among three groups (p < 0.05), and main reasons were "lose one's appetite" and "have not enough time". Food habits score for each food was not significantly different among three groups, but eating the meal on thinking with food combination in normal group was higher than overweight and obesity group (p < 0.01). Correlation coefficients of food habits score and anthropometric measurements were that salty of food was negative and food habits scores were positive correlation for anthropometric measurements and obesity index (p < 0.05 - p < 0.001). Frequency of exercise and fitting exercise for body were different among three groups (p < 0.05). Obesity group was lower frequency of exercise than the other groups. Regular diet was positive correlation with food combination (p < 0.01), taking fish (p < 0.05), taking vegetables (p < 0.01), taking bean products (p < 0.01) and food habits score (p < 0.01), frequency of eating out and snacks were negative correlation with taking fruits and fishes. Therefore, proper nutritional education for middle-aged women in obesity group is recommended regular diet, good food habits and exercise. The middle-aged women must decrease the frequency of eating out, snack and the salty foods, and increase the fruits and vegetables. They must have healthy life styles for exercise, smoking, and drinking.

Use of Piggyback Contact Lens System to GP Lens Wearers (GP렌즈 착용자에게 피기백 콘택트렌즈 시스템의 적용)

  • Kim, Yong Gil;Kim, Soo Hyun;Kim, Jai Min
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: This study was performed to achieve an acceptable piggyback fit utilizing each subject's own GP lenses, in subjects with regular low myopic astigmatism. Methods: A randomized, prospective study of 15 subjects with the diagnosis of low myopic astigmatism was conducted. Nine subjects were female and 6 were male, and mean age was: 23.73${\pm}$1.68 years. Subjects were evaluated before participate on this study and then also evaluated with period of at two hours and two weeks after obtaining their lenses. All subjects were submitted to the following tests: measurement of comfort level by means of the analogical visual scale, best corrected visual acuity and over-refraction at distance. contrast sensitivity and stereo acuity. After evaluating the fit of plano soft lens, we applied each subject's own GP lens on top. Results: Vision, visual performance and satisfaction of piggyback contact lens system were stable, if not improved, for the 15 subjects when the data was compared to the patients' wear of rigid gas permeable contact lenses. Fit with a piggyback system had the same or improved comfort, visual acuity and contrast sensitivity compared to previous GP lens wear alone. The visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and stereo acuity did not show differences in relation to the studied lens type. Conclusions: These results suggest that it is possible to achieve a successful piggyback lens fitting utilizing a patient's own GP lens. The piggyback lens system satisfied the visual performance and visual requirements of this subject with GP lens alone for the correction of low myopic astigmatism.