• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.73-91
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to examine the hedging effectiveness of shrimp futures market. Hedging effectiveness is measured by OLS model based on rolling windows. Analysis data are obtained from Kansai Commodities Exchange in Osaka and are weekly data of frozen shrimp futures and cash prices in the time period from July 9, 2003, to May 9, 2007. The empirical results are summarized as follows:First, the correlation coefficients between the nearby futures price changes and the cash(16/20) price changes are very low and have range from 0.141 to 0.208 values. Second, the minimum variance hedge ratios($\hat{\beta}$) are all statistically different from 0 at the 5% level and range from 0.0477 to 0.5039 values excluding Indian shrimps(26/30). Ex post hedging effectiveness, as measured by the coefficient of determination, $R^2$, is relatively very low and range from a low of 0.4% for west-south Indian shrimps(26/30) to a high 4.3% for Vietnamese shrimps(16/20). Third, ex ante hedging effectiveness, as measured by out-of-sample hedging period, is also very low and range from a low of -4.4% for west-south Indian shrimps(21/25) to a high of 3.4% for Vietnamese shrimps(16/20). This indicates that the shrimp futures market doesn't behave as risk management instrument of shrimp spot.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-34
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• 2020

Purpose - In this study, we investigate determinants of hedging with derivatives and its effect on firm value and firm risk for Korean firms. Design/methodology - To avoid the endogeneity problem pointed out in previous studies, we use a two-stage analysis by using gains and losses from derivatives as instrument variable for hedging with derivatives. Findings - Our analysis on the determinants of hedging shows that firms that are more leveraged and less profitable, and with more growth opportunities are likely to hedge through derivatives. Additionally, large firms, firms less diversified into industry, and firms more diversified geographically are likely to use derivatives. Our two-stage analysis shows that indicators of hedging with derivatives have an insignificant effect on firm value, and the indicator of futures/forwards use and of swaps use have significant negative effect on firm value. Whereas, the extent of hedging with derivatives has positive effect on firm value for all types of foreign currency derivatives, which suggests that moderately low hedgers use derivatives inefficiently, but extensive hedgers use derivatives properly. With regard to firm risk, hedging with derivatives increases market-based risk, but decreases accounting-based risk. Thus, we conclude that Korean firms use derivatives to manage operational volatility rather than to manage market risk, and accounting-based risk reduction through hedging is not directly translated into higher firm value. Originality/value - This is not the first study to investigate hedging behavior of Korean firms, but the sample period that that this study analyzed is the longest and various method are used to control the endogeneity problem. We investigate not only total foreign currency derivatives but also by types of derivatives, including futures/forwards, options, and swaps.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.139-158
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• 2009

With the sample of Middle East crude oil imported to South Korea, this study empirically analyzes the effectiveness of the risk management strategies using derivatives such as futures and options. Assuming the hedging period of one to twelve months, it considers a spot purchasing strategy, 1 : 1 futures hedge strategy, OLS-based minimum-variance futures hedge strategy, buying call option strategy, and collar transaction strategy. According to the ex-ante result, using the derivatives of futures or options makes lower the procurement costs when the crude oil prices is increasing. With the hedging period less than or equal to six months, the hedging strategy using futures turns out to be superior in terms of procurement cost reduction and hedging effectiveness improvement. In contrast, the hedging strategies of buying call option and collar transaction would generate better results when the hedging program last over six months.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.213-242
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• 2023

This paper investigates whether the price of cryptocurrency is determined by the US dollar index, the price of investment assets such gold and oil, and the implied volatility of the KOSPI. Overall, the returns on cryptocurrencies are best predicted by the trading volume of the cryptocurrency both in-sample and out-of-sample. The estimates of gold and the dollar index are negative in the return prediction, though they are not significant. The dollar index, gold, and the cryptocurrencies seem to share characteristics which hedging instruments have in common. When investors take notice of the imminent market risks, they increase the demand for one of these assets and thereby increase the returns on the asset. The most notable result in the out-of-sample predictability is the predictability of the returns on value-weighted portfolio by gold. The empirical results show that the restricted model fails to encompass the unrestricted model. Therefore, the unrestricted model is significant in improving out-of-sample predictability of the portfolio returns using gold. From the empirical analyses, we can conclude that in-sample predictability cannot guarantee out-of-sample predictability and vice versa. This may shed light on the disparate results between in-sample and out-of-sample predictability in a large body of previous literature.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.231-253
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• 2004

We examine hedge strategies that use Won-dollar futures to hedge the price risk of the Won-dollar exchange rate. We employ the naive hedge model, minimum variance hedge model and bivariate ECT-ARCH(1) model as hedge instruments, and analyze their hedge performances. The sample period covers from January 2, 2001 to December 31, 2002 with sub-samples such as daily, weekly, bi-weekly prices of the Won-dollar futures and cash. The important findings may be summarized as follows. First, there is no significant difference in hedge ratio between the risk minimum variance model and bivariate ECT-ARCH(1) model that controls for the cointegration relationship of the Won-dollar futures and cash. Second, hedge performance of the naive model and minimum variance model with constant hedge ratios is not far behind that of bivariate ECT-ARCH(1) model with time-varying hedge ratios. This results imply that investors are encouraged to use the minimum variance hedge model to hedge Won-dollar exchange rate with Won-dollar futures. Third, hedge performance and effectiveness of each model is also analyzed with respect to hedge period appear to be greater over long than over the short period. This evidence supports the hypothesis that futures prices would have more time to respond to the greater cash price changes over the longer holding period, leading to an improved hedge performance.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.243-266
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• 2006

This paper tests cross hedging performance of the KOSPI 200 stock index futures to hedge the downside risk of the KOSPI, KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ50 spot market. For this purpose we introduce the minimum variance hedge model, bivariate GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) model as hedge models. The main results are as follows; First, we find that the direct hedge performance of KOSPI 200 index futures is better than those of indirect hedge performance. second, in case or cross hedge performance the hedge effect of KOSPI 200 stock index futures market against KOSPI 200 stock index spot market is relatively better than those of KOSPI 200 index futures against KOSPI and KOSDAQ spot position. Third, for the out-sample, hedging effectiveness of the risk-minimization with constant hedge ratios is higher than those of the time varying bivariate GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) model. In conclusion, investors are encouraged to use simple risk-minimization model rather than the time varying hedge models like GARCH and EGARCH model to hedge the position of the Korean stock index cash markets.