• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.211-219
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• 2010

This paper designs the dynamic symbol automatic trading system in Korean option market. This system is based on Multichart program which is convenient and efficient system trading tool. But the Multichart has an important restriction which has only one constant symbol per chart. This restriction causes very useful strategies impossible. The proposed design uses global variables, signal chart selection and position order exchange. So an automatic trading system with dynamic symbol works on Multichart program. To verify the proposed system, BS(Buythensell)-SB(Sellthenbuy) strategies are tested which uses the change of open-interest of stock index futures within a day. These strategies buy both call and put option in ATM at start candle and liquidate all at 12 o'clock and then sell both call and put option in ATM at 12 o'clock and also liquidate all at 14:40. From 23 March 2009 to 31 May 2010, 301-trading days, is adopted for experiment. As a result, the average daily profit rate of this simple strategies riches 1.09%. This profit rate is up to eight times of commision price which is 0.15 % per option trade. If the method which raises the profitable rate of wining trade or lower commission than 0.15% is found, these strategies make fascinated lossless trading system which is based on the proposed dynamic symbol automatic trading system.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.177-192
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• 2016

기계학습(Machine Learning)은 인공 지능의 한 분야로, 데이터를 이용하여 기계를 학습시켜 기계 스스로가 데이터 분석 및 예측을 하게 만드는 것과 관련한 컴퓨터 과학의 한 영역을 일컫는다. 그중에서 SVM(Support Vector Machines)은 주로 분류와 회귀 분석을 목적으로 사용되는 모델이다. 어느 두 집단에 속한 데이터들에 대한 정보를 얻었을 때, SVM 모델은 주어진 데이터 집합을 바탕으로 하여 새로운 데이터가 어느 집단에 속할지를 판단해준다. 최근 들어서 많은 금융전문가는 기계학습과 막대한 데이터가 존재하는 금융 분야와의 접목 가능성을 보며 기계학습에 집중하고 있다. 그러면서 각 금융사는 고도화된 알고리즘과 빅데이터를 통해 여러 금융업무 수행이 가능한 로봇(Robot)과 투자전문가(Advisor)의 합성어인 로보어드바이저(Robo-Advisor) 서비스를 발 빠르게 제공하기 시작했다. 따라서 현재의 금융 동향을 고려하여 본 연구에서는 기계학습 방법의 하나인 SVM을 활용하여 매매성과를 올리는 방법에 대해 제안하고자 한다. SVM을 통한 예측대상은 한국형 변동성지수인 VKOSPI이다. VKOSPI는 금융파생상품의 한 종류인 옵션의 가격에 영향을 미친다. VKOSPI는 흔히 말하는 변동성과 같고 VKOSPI 값은 옵션의 종류와 관계없이 옵션 가격과 정비례하는 특성이 있다. 그러므로 VKOSPI의 정확한 예측은 옵션 매매에서의 수익을 낼 수 있는 중요한 요소 중 하나이다. 지금까지 기계학습을 기반으로 한 VKOSPI의 예측을 다룬 연구는 없었다. 본 연구에서는 SVM을 통해 일 중의 VKOSPI를 예측하였고, 예측 내용을 바탕으로 옵션 매매에 대한 적용 가능 여부를 실험하였으며 실제로 향상된 매매 성과가 나타남을 증명하였다.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.33-49
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• 2023

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the option selection and optimal trading of informed traders in KOSPI 200 options market based on the PIN (probability of informed trading) model of Easley et al.(2002). Design/methodology/approach - This study uses TAQ (trade and quote) data provided by Korean Exchanges (KRX) which contains all the bids and trades recorded during the continuous auction trading hours for the KOSPI 200 options between May 2019 and September 2020. Findings - First, there was no difference in the PIN between call and put options in the 2019 data, but the PIN of put options was slightly higher in 2020. Second, regardless of the type of option, the PIN was higher for in-the-money (ITM) options, and the PIN of out-of-the-money (OTM) options was the same as or slightly higher than that of at-the-money (ATM) options. Third, we found that the PIN decreases as trading liquidity increases, and fourth, the PIN increased sharply as the expiration date approached, especially for OTM options, while ITM and ATM options showed relatively weak effects. Fifth, for foreign and institutional investors, the periodicity of orders was observed in milliseconds, especially for foreign investors, where the periodicity of orders was clear and frequent in OTM options. The results suggest that the purpose of option trading varies depending on the moneyness from the perspective of the informed trader.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2000년도 추계정기학술대회:지능형기술과 CRM
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• pp.489-497
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• 2000

After IMF situation, the money market environment is changing rapidly. Therefore, many companies including financial institutions and many individual investors are concerned about forecasting the money market, and they make an effort to insure the various profit and hedge methods using derivatives like option, futures and swap. In this research, we developed a prototype of forecasting system for KOSPI 200 option, especially call option, trading using artificial neural networks(ANN), To avoid the overfitting problem and the problem involved int the choice of ANN structure and parameters, we employed the ANN ensemble approach. We conducted two types of simulation. One is conducted with the hold signals taken into account, and the other is conducted without hold signals. Even though our models show low accuracy for the sample set extracted from the data collected in the early stage of IMF situation, they perform better in terms of profit and stability than the model that uses only the theoretical price.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.190-198
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• 2013

Recently, one of the most vital advancement in the field of finance is high-performance trading using field-programmable gate array (FPGA). The objective of this paper is to design high-performance Black Scholes option trading system on an FPGA. We implemented an efficient Black Scholes Call Option System IP on an FPGA. The IP may perform 180 million transactions per second after initial latency of 208 clock cycles. The implementation requires the 64-bit IEEE double-precision floatingpoint adder, multiplier, exponent, logarithm, division, and square root IPs. Our experimental results show that the design is highly efficient in terms of frequency and resource utilization, with the maximum frequency of 179 MHz on Altera Stratix V.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.13-23
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• 2015

This study addresses the question as to whether the option prices have useful predictive information on the direction of stock markets by investigating a forecasting power of volatility curvatures and skewness premiums implicit in S&P 500 index option prices traded in Chicago Board Options Exchange. We begin by estimating implied volatility functions and risk neutral price densities every minute based on non-parametric method and then calculate volatility curvature and skewness premium using them. The rationale is that high volatility curvature or high skewness premium often leads to strong bullish sentiment among market participants. We found that the rate of return on the signal following trading strategy was significantly higher than that on the intraday buy-and-hold strategy, which indicates that the S&P500 index option prices have a strong forecasting power on the direction of stock index market. Another major finding is that the information contents of S&P 500 index option prices disappear within one minute, and so one minute-delayed signal following trading strategy would not lead to any excess return compared to a simple buy-and-hold strategy.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.87-100
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• 2009

Hedging strategy for European option of jump-type semimartingale asset model, which is derived from stochastic differential equation whose driving process is a jump-type semimartingle, is discussed.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.151-157
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• 2010

This paper proposes the Pyramid strategy which is based on the straddle sell. The Pyamid strategy has multi-entry features with starting date and delta parameters. And It is hedged against a loss by mutual trades and dynamic ripples. This paper analyzes the profit and MDD(maximum draw down) of the Pyramid strategy on system trading. The portfolio tool is used for the experiment which is one of the Multicharts' package. The Multicharts is a good trading system of recent years. For the experiment, three call options and three put options are used at october in 2009. Two parameters are used which are the starting date from first October to twentieth October in 2009 and delta from eight percent to fifty percent. As a result, the profit of composite option is about 3 million won. If the strategy starts before the beginning of option month, investors feel uncomfortable because of a large MDD. If a delta belows 20%, it shows high profit and the ratio of profit and MDD builds up a low value. However a low delta makes frequent trades and results in a loss unless increasing entry levels which mean more amount of investment. This work provides a safer trade system than native option trades. It is important how much levels of multi-entry are acceptable. And an amount of investment with appropriate levels of multi-entry is a subject of a future study.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.239-266
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• 2012

본 논문은 세계적 수준의 양적인 성장에도 불구하고 여러 가지 문제점을 갖고 있는 국내의 장내 파생상품시장에 대한 바람직한 개선방향을 모색하고자 한다. 우리나라의 장내 파생상품시장에서는 외가격 또는 극외가격의 거래비중이 높고, 미결제약정 당 거래량이 많아 포지션을 짧게 보유하는 투기적 거래의 성향이 강한 것으로 보인다. 또한 외국에 비해 개인투자자의 파생상품시장 참여가 높은데 이로 인한 손실이 지속되고 있고 개인투자자들의 부가 기관 및 외국인투자자들에게 이전되고 있다. 이처럼 여러 문제점을 갖고 있는 장내 파생상품시장에 대한 바람직한 정비방향을 모색하기 위해 투자자보호를 위한 행위규제 측면에서 향후 규제체계 개선방향에 대한 여러 가지 방안을 제안한다. 우선 투기성향의 거래를 완화하기 위해서는 현재 외가격 위주로 거래되고 있는 코스피200옵션시장을 등가격 위주의 시장으로 유도할 필요성이 있다. 이를 위해 등가격 거래에 대한 거래수수료 할인 또는 면제, 등가격 종목에 대한 시장조성자제도 도입 등을 고려할 수 있다. 개인투자자 보호를 위해서는 전문투자자와 개인투자자에 대한 차등 규제, 기본예탁금 관리 강화, 위험관리 교육 및 모의거래 기회 확대 등을 시행 가능한 방안으로 제안하고자 한다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.153-153
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• 2018

Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus is a new holistic resources management concept that considers the interconnections among resources for sustainable resources planning and management. The current challenge is to fulfill the required demand in the lack of available resources. A traditional way to provide more available resource is by increase in production, but it caused increment of indirect demand of other interlinked resources. Importing resources from other area (where local supply is redundant) is another option to secure local resources with additional economic expenditure. The WEF nexus-trading model adapts the previously developed nationwide nexus simulation model with additional input parameters and functions to simulate trading scenarios. In general, the analysis starts with the quantification of local resources deficit (potential importing amount) and redundancy (potential exporting amount) of each area. Then, a trade module is initiated by determining possible donor area and importation amount. Finally, the nexus simulation for all area is re-run to determine final resources supply-demand results including the trading amount. The trade option provides an opportunity to meet local demands without draining local resources. However, the production capability of donor area may limit the importation amount. The newly developed trade option allows more alternatives for stakeholders to determine resources management plans.