• Title/Summary/Keyword: Operational Risk Evaluation

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A Measurement Way of Operation Risk Evaluation of Korean Seaports Using Negative DEA (Negative DEA를 이용한 국내항만의 운영위험평가 측정방법)

  • Park, Ro-Kyung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to show the empirical measurement way of operation risk evaluation in domestic seaports for overcoming the limitations which the traditional DEA method has by using 13 Korean ports in 2003 for 4 inputs(birthing capacity, cargo handling capacity, number of coastal guard vessel, number o f coastal special guard vessel ) and 5 outputs(Export and Import Quantity, Number of Ship Calls, number of coastal accident, number of coastal crime, number of coastal pollution). Because traditional DEA method has produced the limited set of information, negative DEA mixed with tier, stratification and layering methods should be adopted. The goal of negative DEA is to set up DEA models that will place the poor operating ports on or close to the empirical frontier. The core empirical results of this paper are as follows. First, Donghae ports should benchmark the operation way of Yeasu, Busan, Woolsan ports in terms of the middle and longterm base. Second, 5 ports(ports of Taean, Yeasu, Tongyoung, Busan, Sokcho) which were revealed as the poor operating ports in Negative DEA analysis should benchmark Incheon, Woolsan, Pohan, and Donhae ports. The policy implication to the Korean seaports and planners is that Korean seaports should introduce the new methods like Negative DEA of this paper for predicting the poor operating in the ports.

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Evaluation and Improvement of the KMAPP Surface Wind Speed Prediction over Complex Terrain Areas (복잡 지형 지역에서의 KMAPP 지상 풍속 예측 성능 평가와 개선)

  • Keum, Wang-Ho;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Doo-Il;Lee, Sang-Sam;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2021
  • The necessity of accurate high-resolution meteorological forecasts becomes increasing in socio-economical applications and disaster risk management. The Korea Meteorological Administration Post-Processing (KMAPP) system has been operated to provide high-resolution meteorological forecasts of 100 m over the South Korea region. This study evaluates and improves the KMAPP performance in simulating wind speeds over complex terrain areas using the ICE-POP 2018 field campaign measurements. The mountainous measurements give a unique opportunity to evaluate the operational wind speed forecasts over the complex terrain area. The one-month wintertime forecasts revealed that the operational Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) has systematic errors over the complex mountainous area, especially in deep valley areas, due to the orographic smoothing effect. The KMAPP reproduced the orographic height variation over the complex terrain area but failed to reduce the wind speed forecast errors of the LDAPS model. It even showed unreasonable values (~0.1 m s-1) for deep valley sites due to topographic overcorrection. The model's static parameters have been revised and applied to the KMAPP-Wind system, developed newly in this study, to represent the local topographic characteristics better over the region. Besides, sensitivity tests were conducted to investigate the effects of the model's physical correction methods. The KMAPP-Wind system showed better performance in predicting near-surface wind speed during the ICE-POP period than the original KMAPP version, reducing the forecast error by 21.2%. It suggests that a realistic representation of the topographic parameters is a prerequisite for the physical downscaling of near-ground wind speed over complex terrain areas.

Developing a regional fog prediction model using tree-based machine-learning techniques and automated visibility observations (시정계 자료와 기계학습 기법을 이용한 지역 안개예측 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Daeha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1255-1263
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    • 2021
  • While it could become an alternative water resource, fog could undermine traffic safety and operational performance of infrastructures. To reduce such adverse impacts, it is necessary to have spatially continuous fog risk information. In this work, tree-based machine-learning models were developed in order to quantify fog risks with routine meteorological observations alone. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Light Gradient Boosting (LGB), and Random Forests (RF) were chosen for the regional fog models using operational weather and visibility observations within the Jeollabuk-do province. Results showed that RF seemed to show the most robust performance to categorize between fog and non-fog situations during the training and evaluation period of 2017-2019. While the LGB performed better than in predicting fog occurrences than the others, its false alarm ratio was the highest (0.695) among the three models. The predictability of the three models considerably declined when applying them for an independent period of 2020, potentially due to the distinctively enhanced air quality in the year under the global lockdown. Nonetheless, even in 2020, the three models were all able to produce fog risk information consistent with the spatial variation of observed fog occurrences. This work suggests that the tree-based machine learning models could be used as tools to find locations with relatively high fog risks.

On Improving the Verification, Validation and Accreditation Process by Including Safety Requirements in M&S-Based Development of Weapon Systems (M&S기반 무기체계개발에서 시스템 안전요건 반영을 통한 VV&A 프로세스 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Sim, Sang Hyun;Lee, Jae-Chon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.123-131
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    • 2014
  • Modern weapon systems are getting more complex in terms of the functionality and also the conditions on the environment and range in which they are deployed and used. Therefore, many development programs can easily be exposed to a variety of risks, resulting in delayed schedules and cost overrun. As such, effective means are necessary to keep the defence budget at an affordable level while competitive edges on technological aspects are retained. As one way to meet those need, modeling and simulation (M&S) methods have widely been used, particularly in the test and evaluation (T&E) process for weapon systems development. The result of M&S-based systems development should be evaluated by the verification, validation & accreditation (VV&A) process to assure keeping reliability at a desired level. On the other hand, due to the explosiveness, the weapons systems development naturally requires to consider safety issues in both the T&E and operational periods. The purpose of this paper is to improve the VV&A process by reflecting the safety requirements therein. To do so, the VV&A process has been analyzed and graphically modeled first and then safety elements have been incorporated effectively. The use of the improved process in the war ships development has also been discussed. Based on the process proposed and the consequent database constructed, the target system can be expected to benefit from reducing development risks while assuring systems safety.

Evaluation of Electrical Damage to Electric-vehicle Bearings under Actual Operating Conditions (실제 운전조건을 고려한 전기자동차 베어링의 전기적 손상 평가 )

  • Jungsoo Park;Jeongsik Kim;Seungpyo Lee
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.111-117
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    • 2024
  • Due to global CO2 emission reductions and fuel efficiency regulations, the trend toward transitioning from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) has accelerated. Consequently, the problem of EV failures has become a focal point of active research. The parasitic capacitance generated during motor-shaft rotation induces voltage that deteriorates the raceway and ball surfaces of bearings, causing electrical damage in EVs. Despite numerous attempts to address this issue, most studies have been conducted under high viscosity lubricant and low load conditions. However, due to factors such as high-speed operation, rapid acceleration and deceleration, motor heating, and motor system-decelerator integration, current EV applications have shown diminished stability in lubrication films of motor bearings, thereby leveraging the investigation to address the risk of electrical damage. This study investigates the electrical damage to rolling bearing elements in EV motor drive systems. The experimental analysis focuses on the effects of electric currents and operational loads on bearing integrity. A test rig is designed to generate high-rate voltage specific to a motor system's parasitic capacitance, and bearing samples are exposed to these currents for specified durations. Component evaluation involves visual inspections and vibration measurements. In addition, a predictive model for electrical failure is developed based on accumulated data, which demonstrates the ability to predict the likelihood of electrical failure relative to the duration and intensity of current exposure. This in turn reduces uncertainties in practical applications regarding electrical erosion modes.

A National Chronic Disease Management Model and Evaluation of Validity of Primary Care Physician(PCP) Model in Korea (우리나라 만성질환 관리를 위한 질환주치의 모형의 타당성 분석)

  • Chun, Ki-Hong;Paek, Kyung-Won;Lee, Soo-Jin;Park, Chong-Yon
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.92-108
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    • 2009
  • This study suggests a model for continuing and comprehensive management of hypertension or Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Korea. Moreover, this paper computed the contribution cost of hypertension or T2DM management using the healthcare medical cost, which could have occurred from stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) that were successfully prevented from the effective hypertension or T2DM management. Additionally, these costs were compared with the cost of implementing the hypertension or T2DM management model suggested in this study. This study used the medical fee summary of the health insurance claims submitted to National Health Insurance Corporation by medical facilities for services provided during the period from January 1st 1999 to December 31st 2006. The prevalence rate with treatment referred to cases in which patients submitted their medical claims at least once during the period, along with an accordant diagnosis. The incidence rate with treatment referred to cases in which patients who never submitted claims for the accordant disease during the five years from 1999 to 2003 submitted claims for the accordant disease in 2004 and 2005. The relative risk of the occurrence of stroke, MI and ESRD was 11.0, 13.6, and 30.3, respectively. The attributable risk of hypertension or T2DM for stroke was 0.730, and that for MI and ESRD were 0.773 and 0.888, respectively. Based on these, the contribution cost of hypertension or T2DM is estimated to be 986.3 billion Korean Won(KRW) for stroke patients, 330.5 billion KRW for MI patients, and 561.7 billion KRW for ESRD patients as in 2005. Hence, the total contribution cost of hypertension or T2DM to stroke, MI, and ESRD is 1.878 trillion KRW. The estimate for operational costs included an annual expenditure of 50,000 KRW per each recipient and an annual subsidy of 0.22 million KRW per person for the 1.6 million low.income individuals with hypertension or T2DM to cover their out.of.pocket medical expenses. Under this assumption, it took approximately 0.6 trillion KRW to manage 5 million high.risk patients in the low. and mid.income range, coverings up to 50% of costs. In conclusion, considering the potential benefits of preventing stroke, MI, and ESRD, the costs seems to be reasonable.

A Study on the Necessity of Verification about depot level maintenance plan through the Weapons System cases analysis (무기체계 사례 분석을 통한 창정비개발계획안 검증 필요성 연구)

  • Ahn, Jung-Jun;Kim, Su-Dong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.76-82
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    • 2019
  • This study has done to search for a solution to remove risk limitedly caused by separating weapon system acquisition from operation and maintenance at the view point of Logistic Commander who's responsible for stable operation and maintenance after acquiring weapon system. At the System development stage, unverified overhaul development plan may cause additional manpower and costs after the development, and furthermore it is likely to have risk to lower reliability of the military. Thus, research and development agency should write overhaul development plan at the System development stage, and it should be verified through evaluation and verification test. Secondly, during research and development, institutional supplementation is needed to calculate human and material resources writing overhaul development plan. Thirdly, it should be able to analyze proper operation & maintenance plan and cost for overhaul plan at the pre-investigation stage. Fourthly, the base which can develop overhaul concept and overhaul factors should be included in the need and need determination document. Lastly, for the weapon system which has small amount of high power figure, project management should be performed to be able to specify at the each acquisition level of weapon system to realize Article 28, clause 3 and 4 of Defense business law.

Evaluation of Economic Feasibility of Power Generation System using Waste Woody Biomass in a CFBC Plant (순환유동층연소로에서 폐목질계 바이오매스를 이용한 발전 시스템의 경제성 평가)

  • Kim, Sung-June;Nam, Kyung-Soo;Lee, Jae-Sup;Seo, Seong-Seok;Lee, Kyeong-Ho;Yoo, Kyung-Seun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.39-44
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    • 2010
  • Economic feasibility of power generation system using waste woody biomass in a circulating fluidized bed combustor has been investigated. Effects of important variables such as capital investment, cost of waste wood, certified emission reduction(CER), system marginal price(SMP) on the benefit of business have been analyzed. Internal rate of return(IRR) was predicted as 16.67%, which implicates the business is promising based on the assumptions such as SMP of 99 Won/kWh, capital cost of 10.65 billion won, and complimentary providing of waste wood. Major factors affecting the benefit of business were as follows; system marginal price, operational rate, capital investment, expenditure of waste wood, certified emission reduction. In addition, it must be necessary to consider CHP power plant providing steam as one of the means to diversify sales network, for the management of the business risk.

The effects of outsourcing strategies and outsourcing partner selection factors on the success of outsourcing and BSC performance (아웃소싱 파트너 선정요인과 전략이 아웃소싱 성공도 및 BSC성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, BumSung;Shim, JungTaek;Lee, SangShik
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.113-125
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    • 2013
  • Outsourcing is used as one of the effective methods while many companies have to start to innovate everything because of increased fierce global competition, low-growth economy, and varied customers' requirements. Under these conditions, a lot of firms are introducing outsourcing for cost savings, risk reduction, management efficiency, strengthen core competence. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of between outsourcing success by outsourcing strategy and factors for selecting outsourcing partners and BSC success in the Korea manufacturing. This study was intended to make it possible to get a practical approach on evaluation and compensation of the outsourcing manufacturing enterprises by identifying outsourcing success factors and BSC performance factors. When an outsourcing partner of enterprise is selected, detailed assessment will be possible in terms of partner's competence, financial factors, institutional factors, and operational factors.

Evaluation of Short-Term Exposure Levels on Ammonia and Hydrogen Sulfide During Manure-Handling Processes at Livestock Farms

  • Park, Jihoon;Kang, Taesun;Heo, Yong;Lee, Kiyoung;Kim, Kyungran;Lee, Kyungsuk;Yoon, Chungsik
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2020
  • Background: Ammonia and hydrogen sulfide are harmful gases generated during aerobic/anaerobic bacterial decomposition of livestock manure. We evaluated ammonia and hydrogen sulfide concentrations generated from workplaces at livestock farms and determined environmental factors influencing the gas concentrations. Methods: Five commercial swine farms and five poultry farms were selected for monitoring. Real-time monitors were used to measure the ammonia and hydrogen sulfide concentrations and environmental conditions during the manure-handling processes. Monitoring was conducted in the manure storage facility and composting facility. Information on the farm conditions was also collected through interview and walk-through survey. Results: The ammonia concentrations were significantly higher at the swine composting facilities (9.5-43.2 ppm) than at other manure-handling facilities at the swine and poultry farms, and high concentrations of hydrogen sulfide were identified during the manure agitation and mixing process at the swine manure storage facilities (6.9-19.5 ppm). At the poultry manure-handling facilities, the ammonia concentration was higher during the manure-handling processes (2.6-57.9 ppm), and very low hydrogen sulfide concentrations (0-3.4 ppm) were detected. The air temperature and relative humidity, volume of the facility, duration of manure storage, and the number of animals influenced the gas concentrations. Conclusion: A high level of hazardous gases was generated during manure handling, and some levels increased up to risk levels that can threaten workers' health and safety. Some of the farm operational factors were also found to influence the gas levels. By controlling and improving these factors, it would be possible to protect workers' safety and health from occupational risks.