• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.159-165
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• 2007

Using statistical methods a change-point analysis of oil supply disruption is conducted. The statistical distribution of oil supply disruption is a weibull distribution. The detection of the change-point is applied to Bayesian method and weibull parameters are estimated through Markov chain monte carlo and parameter approach. The statistical approaches to the estimation for the change-point and weibull parameters is implemented with the sets of simulated and real data with small sizes of samples.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.451-472
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• 2017

An OPEC production announcement is a major source of supply disruption that has a significant impact on the international crude oil market. In this study, the effects of OPEC's announcements are analyzed using event study methodology. Considering the oil price volatility and structural changes in the oil price, we divide the entire period into three periods and analyze the impact of OPEC's production quota announcements, including 'cut', 'hike', and 'maintain'. As a result of the analysis, we observe that the degree and direction of abnormal returns differ according to the announcements in each period. In addition, by subdividing oil price surge and plunge period into two sections, we analyze the effect of OPEC's 'maintain' announcements. During the oil price plunge period, the amount of abnormal returns was significant. This study provides policy implications for oil trading strategies and for the impact of OPEC announcements during periods of oil price fluctuation.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.859-882
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• 2011

Since two oil crises in the 1970s, Korea has actively engaged in overseas E&P projects to increase energy diversity as well as its self-development rate of energy resources. Korea's energy self-development rate, an index that indicates the ratio of resources acquired through overseas development compared to direct imports. Currently, Korea is conducting a total of 180 promising overseas oil development projects in 36 countries as of the end of 2010. By now, it has secured a reserve of around 1.63 billion barrels and production of around 176 thousand barrels of oil per day. The self-development rate for oil rose from 2.8% in 2006 to 7.4% in 2010. Not content with these remarkable successes, the korean government is planning to raise its self-development rate in oil to 25% by 2019, by promoting the active participation of Korean companies in overseas oil development projects. This paper is concerned with estimation of the required amount of government subsidies that includes loans and financial support through state-controlled banking institutions in order to reach the target 25% rate by 2019. The estimation results shows that government subsidies of at least 268 million dollars are needed for the current rate of 7.4% in oil. However, the amount sharply increases up to 1.25 billion dollars in 2019 when domestic oil demand rises to 1.02 billion barrels.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.8
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• pp.7-17
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• 2022

The article discusses the problems caused by inflation in the developing Asia-Pacific region during the time of the worldwide pandemic and suggests innovative solutions to the problem. The reality is that some of the commodity groups from the consumer basket (e.g., non-seasonal fruits, electronics, furniture, hotel, and restaurant services, etc.) fail to reflect the needs of the low-income earners, which make the majority in developing countries. At the same time, the inflation targeting regime has become outdated and not reliable, because of uncontrolled exogenic factors (imported inflation, fluctuation in oil prices, supply chain disruption, Russia-Ukraine war, etc.) prevailing on endogenic factors and thus making it impossible to control the price stability, especially in developing countries. Since, the old-fashioned inflation index and inflation targeting mechanisms regrettably fail to fully reflect both the society and governmental/central banks' expectations, based on which we first should have better care and second create better policies; we propose to use a combination of already well-known indexes and policies, with the new statistical indicators, which reflects price fluctuations on the medication, utilities, and nutrition.