• Title/Summary/Keyword: Occurrence probability distribution

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The Study for Performance Analysis of Software Reliability Model using Fault Detection Rate based on Logarithmic and Exponential Type (로그 및 지수형 결함 발생률에 따른 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 신뢰도 성능분석 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.306-311
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, reliability software cost model considering logarithmic and exponential fault detection rate based on observations from the process of software product testing was studied. Adding new fault probability using the Goel-Okumoto model that is widely used in the field of reliability problems presented. When correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model. For analysis of software reliability model considering the time-dependent fault detection rate, the parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of inter-failure time data was made. The logarithmic and exponential fault detection model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 80% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

Considerations and Alternative Approaches to the Estimation of Local Abundance of Legally Protected Species, the Fiddler Crab, Austruca lactea (법정보호종, 흰발농게(Austruca lactea) 서식 개체수 추정에 대한 검토와 대안)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Kim, Chang-Soo;Park, Mi-Ra;Jeong, Su-Young;Lee, Chae-Lin;Kim, Sungtae;Ahn, Dong-Sik;Lee, Chang-Gun;Han, Donguk;Back, Yonghae;Park, Young Cheol
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.122-132
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    • 2021
  • We reviewed the methods employed in Korean tidal flat surveys to measure the local abundance of the endangered wildlife and marine protected species, the fiddler crab, Austruca lactea. A complete census for infinite population is impossible even in a limited habitat within a tidal flat, and density estimates from samples strongly vary due to diverse biological and ecological factors. The habitat boundaries and areas shift with periodicities or rhythmic activities of organisms as well as measurement errors. Hence the local abundance calculated from density and habitat areas should be regarded as transient. This conjecture was valid based on the spatio-temporal variations of the density averages, standard error ranges, and spatial distribution of the crab, A. lactea observed for 3 years (2015-2017) in Songdo tidal flat in Incheon. We proposed the potential habitat areas using the occurrence probability of 50% from logistic regression model, reflecting the importance of habitat conservation value as an alternative to local abundance. The spatial shape of potential habitat predicted from a generalized model would remain constant over time unless the species' critical environmental conditions change rapidly. The species-specific model is expected to be used for the introduction of desired species in future habitat restoration/creation projects.

Ecological Importance of Water Budget and Synergistic Effects of Water Stress of Plants due to Air Pollution and Soil Acidification in Korea (한국에서 수분수지의 생태적 중요성과 대기오염 및 토양 산성화로 인한 식물의 수분스트레스 증대 효과)

  • 이창석;이안나
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2003
  • Korea has plentiful precipitation but rainfall events concentrate on several months of rainy season in her weather condition. Korea, therefore, experiences drought for a given period every year. Moreover the soil has usually low water holding capacity, as it is composed coarse particles originated from the granite. Response of several oaks and the Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora) on water stress showed that water budget was significant factor determining vegetation distribution. In addition, dehydration level due to cold resistance mechanism of several evergreen plants during the winter season was closely related to their distribution in natural condition. Experimental result under water stress showed that the Korean red pine was very tolerant to desiccation but the seedlings showed high mortality during the dry season. The mortality tended to proportionate to soil moisture content of each site. A comparison between soil moisture content during June when it is severe dry season and moisture content of the culture soil when the pine seedlings reached the permanent wilting point due to water withheld proved that high mortality during the dry season was due to water deficit. Water potential of sample plants measured during the exposure experiment to the air pollutant showed a probability that water related factors would dominate the occurrence of visible damage and the tolerance level of sample plants. In both field survey and laboratory experiment, plants exposed to air pollution showed more rapid transpiration than those grown in the unpolluted condition. The result would due to injury of leaf surface by air pollutants. Aluminum (Al/sup 3+/) increased in the acid soil not only inhibits root growth but also leads to abnormal distribution of root system and thereby caused water stress. The water stresses due to air pollution and soil acidification showed a possibility that they play dominating roles in inducing forest decline additionally to the existing water deficit due to weather and soil conditions in Korea. Sludge, which can contribute to improve field capacity, as it is almost composed of organic matter, showed an effect ameliorating the retarded growth of plant in the acidified soil. The effect was not less than that of dolomite known in widely as such a soil ameliorator. Litter extract contributed also to mitigate the water stress due to toxic Al/sup 3+/. We prepared a model showing the potential interaction of multiple stresses, which can cause forest decline in Korea by synthesizing those results. Furthermore, we suggested restoration plans, which can mitigate such forest decline in terms of soil amelioration and vegetation restoration.

Preferential Flow as Tested by Breakthrough Curves of Cl- and Cu2+ from Saturated Undisturbed Soil Core Samples under Steady Flow Conditions (포화 불교란 토양시료의 Cl- 및 Cu2+ 출현곡선에 의한 preferential flow의 검증)

  • Yoo, Sun-Ho;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Ro, Hee-Myong;Han, Gwang-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2000
  • Preferential flow has recently been the subject of increasing interest because these phenomena contribute to solute transport in soils. Commonly, preferential flow paths are associated with macropores or highly structured soils. We presented an analysis of the measured breakthrough curves (BTCs) of $Cl^-$ and $Cu^{2+}$ ions to test the occurrence of preferential flow in soils using miscible displacement technique under steady flow conditions. We also analyzed soil water retention curves and from this curves induced cumulative pore size distribution of undisturbed soils, which sampled from Ap1, B1, and C horizons of Songjeong series soils (the fine loamy, mesic family of Typic Hapludults). In this study, miscible displacement experiment on C horizon was excluded, because it is structureless sandy loam with saturated hydraulic conductivity of $5.2cmhr^{-1}$. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of Ap1 horizon was $2.0cmhr^{-1}$, which was about 7 times higher than that of B1 horizon ($0.27cm hr^{-1}$). Cumulative pore size distribution predicted that Ap1 horizon had more macropores (pore diameter larger than $49{\mu}m$, equivalent to -6 kpa of soil matric potential) than B1 horizon. The hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient from chloride BTCs was estimated as $1.3cm^2hr^{-1}$ for B1 and $34cm^2hr^{-1}$ for Ap1 horizon. However the retardation factors of B1 and Ap1 horizon were significantly different, i.e. 1 and 0.6, respectively, which means that there was distinct partition between mobile water and immobile phase in Ap1 horizon. The copper retardation effect of Ap1 horizon was less than that of B1 horizon, even though cation exchange capacity of Ap1 horizon was higher than that of B1 horizon. Thus, breakthrough curves of $Cl^-$ and $Cu^{2+}$ obviously showed the probability that preferential flow would occur in Ap1 horizon.

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A Study on the Application of Outlier Analysis for Fraud Detection: Focused on Transactions of Auction Exception Agricultural Products (부정 탐지를 위한 이상치 분석 활용방안 연구 : 농수산 상장예외품목 거래를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Dongsung;Kim, Kitae;Kim, Jongwoo;Park, Steve
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.93-108
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    • 2014
  • To support business decision making, interests and efforts to analyze and use transaction data in different perspectives are increasing. Such efforts are not only limited to customer management or marketing, but also used for monitoring and detecting fraud transactions. Fraud transactions are evolving into various patterns by taking advantage of information technology. To reflect the evolution of fraud transactions, there are many efforts on fraud detection methods and advanced application systems in order to improve the accuracy and ease of fraud detection. As a case of fraud detection, this study aims to provide effective fraud detection methods for auction exception agricultural products in the largest Korean agricultural wholesale market. Auction exception products policy exists to complement auction-based trades in agricultural wholesale market. That is, most trades on agricultural products are performed by auction; however, specific products are assigned as auction exception products when total volumes of products are relatively small, the number of wholesalers is small, or there are difficulties for wholesalers to purchase the products. However, auction exception products policy makes several problems on fairness and transparency of transaction, which requires help of fraud detection. In this study, to generate fraud detection rules, real huge agricultural products trade transaction data from 2008 to 2010 in the market are analyzed, which increase more than 1 million transactions and 1 billion US dollar in transaction volume. Agricultural transaction data has unique characteristics such as frequent changes in supply volumes and turbulent time-dependent changes in price. Since this was the first trial to identify fraud transactions in this domain, there was no training data set for supervised learning. So, fraud detection rules are generated using outlier detection approach. We assume that outlier transactions have more possibility of fraud transactions than normal transactions. The outlier transactions are identified to compare daily average unit price, weekly average unit price, and quarterly average unit price of product items. Also quarterly averages unit price of product items of the specific wholesalers are used to identify outlier transactions. The reliability of generated fraud detection rules are confirmed by domain experts. To determine whether a transaction is fraudulent or not, normal distribution and normalized Z-value concept are applied. That is, a unit price of a transaction is transformed to Z-value to calculate the occurrence probability when we approximate the distribution of unit prices to normal distribution. The modified Z-value of the unit price in the transaction is used rather than using the original Z-value of it. The reason is that in the case of auction exception agricultural products, Z-values are influenced by outlier fraud transactions themselves because the number of wholesalers is small. The modified Z-values are called Self-Eliminated Z-scores because they are calculated excluding the unit price of the specific transaction which is subject to check whether it is fraud transaction or not. To show the usefulness of the proposed approach, a prototype of fraud transaction detection system is developed using Delphi. The system consists of five main menus and related submenus. First functionalities of the system is to import transaction databases. Next important functions are to set up fraud detection parameters. By changing fraud detection parameters, system users can control the number of potential fraud transactions. Execution functions provide fraud detection results which are found based on fraud detection parameters. The potential fraud transactions can be viewed on screen or exported as files. The study is an initial trial to identify fraud transactions in Auction Exception Agricultural Products. There are still many remained research topics of the issue. First, the scope of analysis data was limited due to the availability of data. It is necessary to include more data on transactions, wholesalers, and producers to detect fraud transactions more accurately. Next, we need to extend the scope of fraud transaction detection to fishery products. Also there are many possibilities to apply different data mining techniques for fraud detection. For example, time series approach is a potential technique to apply the problem. Even though outlier transactions are detected based on unit prices of transactions, however it is possible to derive fraud detection rules based on transaction volumes.

Analysis of Twitter for 2012 South Korea Presidential Election by Text Mining Techniques (텍스트 마이닝을 이용한 2012년 한국대선 관련 트위터 분석)

  • Bae, Jung-Hwan;Son, Ji-Eun;Song, Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2013
  • Social media is a representative form of the Web 2.0 that shapes the change of a user's information behavior by allowing users to produce their own contents without any expert skills. In particular, as a new communication medium, it has a profound impact on the social change by enabling users to communicate with the masses and acquaintances their opinions and thoughts. Social media data plays a significant role in an emerging Big Data arena. A variety of research areas such as social network analysis, opinion mining, and so on, therefore, have paid attention to discover meaningful information from vast amounts of data buried in social media. Social media has recently become main foci to the field of Information Retrieval and Text Mining because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real-time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading. But most of the previous studies have adopted broad-brush and limited approaches. These approaches have made it difficult to find and analyze new information. To overcome these limitations, we developed a real-time Twitter trend mining system to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers the functions of term co-occurrence retrieval, visualization of Twitter users by query, similarity calculation between two users, topic modeling to keep track of changes of topical trend, and mention-based user network analysis. In addition, we conducted a case study on the 2012 Korean presidential election. We collected 1,737,969 tweets which contain candidates' name and election on Twitter in Korea (http://www.twitter.com/) for one month in 2012 (October 1 to October 31). The case study shows that the system provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively. The system also retrieves the list of terms co-occurred by given query terms. We compare the results of term co-occurrence retrieval by giving influential candidates' name, 'Geun Hae Park', 'Jae In Moon', and 'Chul Su Ahn' as query terms. General terms which are related to presidential election such as 'Presidential Election', 'Proclamation in Support', Public opinion poll' appear frequently. Also the results show specific terms that differentiate each candidate's feature such as 'Park Jung Hee' and 'Yuk Young Su' from the query 'Guen Hae Park', 'a single candidacy agreement' and 'Time of voting extension' from the query 'Jae In Moon' and 'a single candidacy agreement' and 'down contract' from the query 'Chul Su Ahn'. Our system not only extracts 10 topics along with related terms but also shows topics' dynamic changes over time by employing the multinomial Latent Dirichlet Allocation technique. Each topic can show one of two types of patterns-Rising tendency and Falling tendencydepending on the change of the probability distribution. To determine the relationship between topic trends in Twitter and social issues in the real world, we compare topic trends with related news articles. We are able to identify that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. The user network in Twitter is different from those of other social media because of distinctive characteristics of making relationships in Twitter. Twitter users can make their relationships by exchanging mentions. We visualize and analyze mention based networks of 136,754 users. We put three candidates' name as query terms-Geun Hae Park', 'Jae In Moon', and 'Chul Su Ahn'. The results show that Twitter users mention all candidates' name regardless of their political tendencies. This case study discloses that Twitter could be an effective tool to detect and predict dynamic changes of social issues, and mention-based user networks could show different aspects of user behavior as a unique network that is uniquely found in Twitter.

Wave Analysis and Spectrum Estimation for the Optimal Design of the Wave Energy Converter in the Hupo Coastal Sea (파력발전장치 설계를 위한후포 연안의 파랑 분석 및 스펙트럼 추정)

  • Kweon, Hyuck-Min;Cho, Hongyeon;Jeong, Weon-Mu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.147-153
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    • 2013
  • There exist various types of the WEC (Wave Energy Converter), and among them, the point absorber is the most popularly investigated type. However, it is difficult to find examples of systematically measured data analysis for the design of the point absorber type of power buoy in the world. The study investigates the wave load acting on the point absorber type resonance power buoy wave energy extraction system proposed by Kweon et al. (2010). This study analyzes the time series spectra with respect to the three-year wave data (2002.05.01~2005.03.29) measured using the pressure type wave gage at the seaside of north breakwater of Hupo harbor located in the east coast of the Korean peninsula. From the analysis results, it could be deduced that monthly wave period and wave height variations were apparent and that monthly wave powers were unevenly distributed annually. The average wave steepness of the usual wave was 0.01, lower than that of the wind wave range of 0.02-0.04. The mode of the average wave period has the value of 5.31 sec, while mode of the wave height of the applicable period has the value of 0.29 m. The occurrence probability of the peak period is a bi-modal type, with a mode value between 4.47 sec and 6.78 sec. The design wave period can be selected from the above four values of 0.01, 5.31, 4.47, 6.78. About 95% of measured wave heights are below 1 m. Through this study, it was found that a resonance power buoy system is necessary in coastal areas with low wave energy and that the optimal design for overcoming the uneven monthly distribution of wave power is a major task in the development of a WEF (Wave Energy Farm). Finding it impossible to express the average spectrum of the usual wave in terms of the standard spectrum equation, this study proposes a new spectrum equation with three parameters, with which basic data for the prediction of the power production using wave power buoy and the fatigue analysis of the system can be given.