• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.99-115
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• 2005

For an analysis of the performance of a computer system, the minimum cycle time method has been widely used. The minimum cycle time method is a mathematical technique with which we can find the minimum duration time needed to fire all the transitions at least once and coming back to the Initial marking in a timed net. A timed net is a modified version of a Petri net where a transition is associated with a delay time. In the real world, an event is associated with a probability of occurrence. However, a timed net is not equipped with any facility of specifying probability of event occurrence. Therefore, the minimum cycle time method applied on a timed net can easily overlook probabilities of occurrences of events and yield a wrong result. We are proposing 'Timed Net with Probabilities of Choices' where a transition can be associated with both delay time and a probability of occurrence. We also introduce an algorithm for minimum cycle time analysis on a 'Timed Net with Probabilities of Choices'. As an example of application, we are performing an analysis of the location based service system using 'Timed Net with Probabilities of Choices'.

• Geosciences Journal
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1053-1067
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• 2018

This paper uses a probability-based approach to study the spatial relationships between landslides and their causative factors in the Mingchukur area, Bostanlik districts of Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The approach is based on digital databases and incorporates methods including probability analysis, spatial pattern analysis, and interactive mapping. First, an object-oriented conceptual model for describing landslide events is proposed, and a combined database of landslides and environmental factors is constructed by integrating various databases within a unifying conceptual framework. The frequency ratio probability model and landslide occurrence data are linked for interactive, spatial evaluation of the relationships between landslides and their causative factors. In total, 15 factors were analyzed, divided into topography, hydrology, and geology categories. All analyzed factors were also divided into numerical and categorical types. Numerical factors are continuous and were evaluated according to their $R^2$ values. A landslide susceptibility map was constructed based on conditioning factors and landslide occurrence data using the frequency ratio model. Finally, the map was validated and the accuracy showed the satisfactory value of 83.3%.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.4B
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• pp.399-404
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• 2006

Kweon et al. (2004) proposed the calculation method of Expected Overtopping Probability (EOP) that considers the occurrence frequency distribution of real sea tide. The method was applied for the comparison of the EOP of Mukho and Busan sea. They showed that the tide occurrence frequency had a great effect on the EOP and the value becomes smaller as the standard deviation of the frequency comes bigger. The present study following Kweon et al.'s method estimates the EOP characteristic of the crest elevation located on East, South, and West sea. The study shows that the EOP becomes smaller following East, South, West sea in order.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.10b
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• pp.9-11
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• 2005

We propose a new content-based image retrieval using a block color co-occurrence matrix (BCCM) and pattern correlogram. In the proposed method, the color feature vectors are extracted by using BCCM that represents the probability of the co-occurrence of two mean colors within blocks. Also the pattern feature vectors are extracted by using pattern correlogram which is combined with spatial correlation of pattern. In the proposed pattern correlogram method. after block-divided image is classified into 48 patterns with respect to the change of the RGB color of the image, joint probability between the same pattern from the surrounding blocks existing at the fixed distance and the center pattern is calculated. Experimental results show that the proposed method can outperform the conventional methods as regards the precision and the size of the feature vector dimension.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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• v.28B no.9
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• pp.692-703
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• 1991

A Korean word is composed of syllables. A Korean syllable is regarded as a random variable according to its probabilistic property in occurrence. A Korean syllable is divided into 'choseong', 'jungseong', and 'jongseong' which are regarded as random variables. We can consider teh conditional probatility of syllable as an index which represents the occurrence correlation between syllables in Korean words. Since the number of syllables is enormous, we use the conditional probability of a' choseong', a 'jungseong', and a 'jongseong' between syllables as an index which represents the occurrence correlation between syllables in Korean words. The length distribution of Korean woeds is computed according to frequency and to kind. Form the cumulative frequency of a Korean syllable computed from multi-syllable Korean woeds, all probabilities and conditiona probabilities are computed for the three random variables. The conditional probabilities of 'choseong'- 'choseong', 'jungseong'- 'jungseong', 'jongseong'-'jongseong', 'jongseong'-'choseong' between adjacent syllables in multi-syllable Korean woeds are computed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.927-930
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• 2005

ACSR is a timed process algebra for the specification and analysis of real-time systems, which supports synchronous timed actions and asynchronous instantaneous events. PACSR is an extended ACSR with the notion of probabilities in selection operation. Using PACSR, this paper represents a system fault occurrence and recovery from the fault in the general resource alteration system. The result shows that system fault occurrence can be analyzed from the fault occurrence probability and the recovery probability.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.2037-2047
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• 2022

The contribution of degraded human performance (e.g., human errors) is significant for the safety of diverse social-technical systems. Therefore, it is crucial to understand when and why the performance of human operators could be degraded. In this study, the occurrence probability of human errors was empirically estimated based on the complexity of proceduralized tasks. To this end, Logistic regression analysis was conducted to correlate TACOM (Task Complexity) scores with human errors collected from the full-scope training simulator of nuclear power plants equipped with analog devices (analog environment). As a result, it was observed that the occurrence probability of both errors of commission and errors of omission can be soundly estimated by TACOM scores. Since the effect of diverse performance influencing factors on the occurrence probabilities of human errors could be soundly distinguished by TACOM scores, it is also expected that TACOM scores can be used as a tool to explain when and why the performance of human operators starts to be degraded.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.195-202
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• 2011

This study analyzed and modeled the relationships between the probabilities of two exotic species occurrence (i.e. largemouth bass and blue gill) and environmental factors such as climatic and geographical variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Generalized Liner Models and Classification Tree Analysis (CTA). The most moderate occurrence probability of largemouth bass was predicted using GAM with an area under the curve (ADC) of 0.88 and Kappa of 0.42, while those of blue gill was suggested by using CTA with an AUC of 0.92 and Kappa of 0.44. The most significant environmental variable in terms of changes in deviance for both species was the annual air temperature for the occurrence probability. Dams had stronger effect on the occurrence of largemouth bass than blue gill. Model development and prediction for the occurrence probability of fish species and richness are necessary to prevent further spread of exotic fishes such as largemouth bass and blue gill because they can threaten habitats of native river ecosystem through various mechanisms.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.