• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2005년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1053-1057
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• 2005

The occurrence probability (OP) distributions of tide levels using harmonic constants of six tidal gauging stations in Korean coastal zone were estimated and analysed in detail. OP analysis using harmonic constants data of Incheon(Youldo), Mokpo, Yeosu, Pusan, Pohang and Sokcho was carried out and compared with the OP using hourly tidal elevation data which were served through the Internet Homepage by the National Ocean Research Institute. The tidal elevation data were divided by the AHHW (ALLW) value referenced to MSL in order to compare the OP patterns in a relative scale. The OP of the tidal elevation calculated using 38 harmonic tidal constituents relatively well agreed with those of hourly observed tidal elevation data. However, the OP results using four harmonic tidal constituents overestimate the occurrence probability at the peak points and underestimate at the tail-regions of the OP. Especially, the OP patterns of the Sokcho and Pohang tidal gauging stations on the East Sea show totally different patterns and the estimation method using four harmonic constants should be modified and application should be strictly limited on the East Sea areas. The OP patterns are considerably well generated in case of the OP generation using the additional two or three dominant tidal constituents,

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.400-408
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• 2022

Maritime transportation is one of the most complicated and hazardous business fileds. Maritime accidents still occur despite several precautions since maritime is exposed to natural factors more than any other industries. In this harsh environment as a part of their job, marine pilots often embark/disembark to/ from vessels and confront life-endangering personal accidents. In the maritime field, several risk assessments are applied. However, all of them could not evaluate occupational accident risk for maritime pilot specifically. This paper performs specific risk analysis using the bow-tie method based on past accident records. This paper aims to qualify root causes and quantify root causes by importance level according to occurrence probability. As a result of analysis, occupational accident occurrence probability is found to be 14%, indicating that accident occurrence rate is significantly high. Hence, the probability of root causes triggering accidents and accident occurrence probability can be ascertained so that preventive measurements can be implemented. Besides theoretical achievement, this paper provides safety awareness to marine pilots, Marine Pilot Organizations, and ship crew who play a key role during marine pilots' transfer.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.64-69
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• 2005

산불은 경제적 손실뿐만 아니라 인명을 위협할 수 있는 국가적 재해다. 이러한 산불을 미연에 방지하고 피해를 저감하기 위해서는 산불발생위험지역을 사전에 판단하여 효율적으로 관리하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 입지환경에서 중요한 부분을 차지하는 산림토양특성 중 토양형, 지형, 토성, 경사, 배수 등과 산불발생지점을 가지고 각 지점별 산불발생위험을 예측할 수 있는 산불발생확률 모형을 개발하였다. 개발 시 조건부확률과 GIS를 이용하였다 개발된 산불발생확률 모형의 적합성 검정을 위하여 추정모형의 예측력 비율을 검토할 수 있는 예측비곡선에 적용한 결과 실효성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 적용하여 산불관리자가 손쉽게 산불발생위험지역을 파악할 수 있도록 위험지역을 구분하였다.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제14권10호
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• pp.207-215
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• 2009

최근 도시화 율이 증가됨에 따라 발생되는 도시의 범죄 예방을 위하여 컴퓨터정보기술과 GIS 기술을 이용한 범죄 공간의 분석에 대한 연구가 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 정적인 환경에서 도시공간정보에 포함된 지역특성을 이용하여 단위 셀별 우범 위험도를 계량화하여 래스터 형태의 확률 지도를 구성하였다. 지형적 특성에 의한 상대적 위험도, 시설물에 의한 상대적 위험도, 수목이나 하천에 의한 위험도 등을 기본으로 하여 위험도 확률 지도를 구축한다. 이를 통합한 위험도 확률 지도를 구할 때는 각각의 단위 위험도에 기후나 계절적 요인에 의해 가중치를 적용한 후 평균하게 된다. 또한 일회성 분석이 아닌 범죄 발생 상대적 위험지수의 패턴을 판독키로 하여 전체 위험도의 확률 지도를 생성하여 이후 발생하는 범죄의 유형을 계량화하는 확률지도에 추가적으로 적용하어 정적인 정보가 아닌 시간의 흐름에 따라 범죄 위험도 확률지도가 달라질 수 있는 모델과 시뮬레이션 하는 방법론을 제안하였다.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.67-82
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• 2008

Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social. natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.59-71
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• 2009

Hazard analysis identifies probability to hazard occurrence and its potential impact on business processes operated in organizations. This paper illustrates a quantitative approach of hazard analysis of information systems by measuring the degree of hazard to information systems using probabilistic risk analysis and activity based costing technique. Specifically the research model projects probability of occurrence by PRA and economic loss by ABC under each identified hazard. To verify the model, each computerized subsystem which is called a business process and hazards occurred on information systems are gathered through one private organization. The loss impact of a hazard occurrence is produced by multiplying probability by the economic loss.

• 대한조선학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.27-34
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• 1974

This study is aimed at a validation of the vigilance simulation model which was proposed earlier (2). The model estimates a perceived danger value, an alertness level and the probability of detection at a given elapsed time of vigilance. Twenty-nine male and seven female subjects were given a simple task. They were asked to detect a number(four numbers out of six digits in the telephone directory which have the probability of occurrence in the range of 0.0010-0.0018) in six different experimental conditions, for periods of two to three hours. Analysis of the experiments showed that although the mean detection rate varied slightly in two hours, the within-subject variance and the number of cyclic performance fluctuations increased significantly. A primal factor that affects the performance seems to be the frequency of target occurrence. By curve fitting, the relation between the probability of detection and the percentages of danger event occurrence was derived; $y=0.50(1-{\varepsilon}^{-50x^2})+0.39$. Assuming the equation represents the normal detection rate(100% performance), the Relative Vigilance Performance Rating was calculated. This rating method could be a useful criterion in selecting and training of the vigilance personnel. The results show that the simulation model is a good estimator of human a performance when the probability of danger occurrence is greater than 0.0015; it gives a good reference for improving the vigilance system. Suggestions are made that (1) the validity of proposed functional equations over the extended range of danger probability be studied, (2) an analysis of the cyclic fluctuations of the alertness level be accomplished, and (3) the cost functions of detection reliability be included in any future model.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.88.2-88.2
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• 2012

We investigate solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability depending on McIntosh sunspot classification, its area, and its area change. For this we use the NOAA active region and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive 10 sunspot classification: 'Dko', 'Dai', 'Eai', 'Fai', 'Dki', 'Dkc', 'Eki', 'Ekc', 'Fki', and 'Fkc'. Sunspot area and its change can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. we classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups: 'Large' and 'Small'. In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot group area change: 'Decrease', 'Steady', and 'Increase'. As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the 'Increase' sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the 'Increase' sub-group is three times higher than that of the 'Steady' sub-group. Mean flare occurrence rates and flare probabilities for all sunspot regions increase with the following order: 'Steady', 'Decrease', and 'Increase'. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance major solar flare occurrence. We are going to forecast solar flares based on these results and NOAA scale.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 춘계 학술발표회 초청강연 및 논문집
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• pp.1378-1385
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• 2008

The probability of landslide hazards was predicted to natural terrain around the stone relics of Jinjeon-saji area, which is located in Yangyang, Kangwon Province. As the analysis results of field investigation, laboratory test and geology and geomorphology data, the effect factors of landslides occurrence were evaluated, and then the landslides prediction map was made up by use of prediction model considering the effect factors. The susceptibility of stone relics induced by landslides was investigated as the grading classification of occurrence probability using the landslides prediction map. In the landslides prediction map, the high probability area of landslides over 70% of occurrence probability was 3,489m3, which was 10.1% of total prediction area. If landslides are occurred at the high elevation area, the three stories stone pagoda of Jinjeon-saji (National treasure No.122) and the stone lantern of Jinjeon-saji (Treasure No.439) will be collapsed by debris flow.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제95권2호
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• pp.160-167
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• 2006

Most of the forest fires that occur in South Korea are caused by human. We partitioned South Korea into nine districts and used observed weather data and daily fire occurrence records for the 1994 to 2003 period to develop a human-caused fire occurrence model of South Korea. Logistic regression analysis techniques were used to relate the probability of a fire day to Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) component of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. The probability of the number of fire day was increased as FFMC increased in the nine districts of South Korea.