• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.12
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• pp.995-1006
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• 2016

According to 5th IPCC Climate Change Report, there is a very high likelihood that the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events will increase. In reality, flood damage has increased, and it is necessary to estimate the future probabilistic design rainfall amount that climate change is reflected. In this study, the future probabilistic design precipitation amount is estimated by analyzing trends of future annual maximum daily rainfall derived by RCP 8.5 scenarios and using the scale-invariance technique. In the first step, after reviewing the time-scale characteristics of annual maximum rainfall amounts for each duration observed from 60 sites operating in Korea Meterological Administration, the feasibility of the scale-invariance technique are examined using annual daily maximum rainfall time series simulated under the present climate condition. Then future probabilistic design rainfall amounts for several durations reflecting the effects of climate change are estimated by applying future annual maximum daily rainfall time series in the IDF curve equation derived by scale-invariance properties. It is shown that the increasing trend on the probabilistic design rainfall amount has resulted on most sites, but the decreasing trend in some regions has been projected.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.481-489
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• 2014

The Chugugi and Wootaek data of Gyeongsang-do (Dagu, Jinju, Goseong) were restored from "Gaksadeungnok", the governmental documents reported by the local government to the central during the Joseon Dynasty, and analyzed. The duration of the restored data represents 6 years for Daegu (1863, 1872, 1890, 1897, 1898, and 1902), 3 years for Jinju (1897, 1898, and 1900), and 2 years for Goseong (1871 and 1873). Total number of the restored data was 134, including 83 in Daegu, 25 in Jinju, and 26 in Goseong with the period ranging from March to September. The summer data from June to August accounts for approximately 50% (73 data), while the April data also shows relatively high number of 22, followed by September and March. Most data was collected from March to October, while this time winter data was not found even in October. The rainfall patterns using Chugugi data were investigated. First, the number of days with rainfall by annual mean showed 41 days in Daegu, 39 in Jinju, 33 in Goseong, respectively. In terms of the time series distribution of daily rainfall, the ratio between the number of occurrences with over 40 mm of heavy rainfall and the number of rainy days showed 14 times (8%) in Daegu, 24 (39%) in Jinju, and 4 (6%) in Goseong, respectively. The maximum daily rainfall during the period was recorded with 80mm in Jinju on August 24, 1900. The result of analyzing monthly amount of rainfall clearly indicated more precipitation in summer (June, July and August) with the relatively high records of 284 mm and 422 mm in April, 1872 and July, 1902, respectively, in Daegu, while Jinju recorded the highest value of 506 mm in June, 1898. When comparing the data with those observed by Chugugi in Seoul during the same period from "Seungjeongwonilgi", the monthly rainfall patterns in Daegu and Seoul were quite similar except for the year of 1890 and 1897 in which many data were missing. In particular, in June 1898 the rainfall amount of Jinju recorded as much as 506 mm, almost 4 times of that of Seoul (134 mm). Based on this, it is possible to presume that there was a large amount of the precipitation in the southern region during 1898. According to the calculated result of Wootaek data based on Chugugi observations, the unit of 1 'Ri' and 1 'Seo' in Daegu can be interpreted into 18.6 mm and 7.8 mm. When taking into consideration with the previous result found in Gyeonggi-do (Cho et al., 2013), 1 'Ri' and 1 'Seo' may be close to 20.5 mm and 8.1 mm, however, more future investigations and studies will be essential to verify the exact values.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.249-259
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• 2018

More than half of annual rainfall occurs in summer season in Korea due to its climate condition and geographical location. A frequency analysis is mostly adopted for designing hydraulic structure under the such concentrated rainfall condition. Among the various distributions, univariate Gumbel distribution has been routinely used for rainfall frequency analysis in Korea. However, the distributional changes in extreme rainfall have been globally observed including Korea. More specifically, the univariate Gumbel distribution based rainfall frequency analysis is often fail to describe multimodal behaviors which are mainly influenced by distinct climate conditions during the wet season. In this context, we purposed a Gumbel mixture distribution based rainfall frequency analysis with a Bayesian framework, and further the results were compared to that of the univariate. It was found that the proposed model showed better performance in describing underlying distributions, leading to the lower Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. The mixed Gumbel distribution was more robust for describing the upper tail of the distribution which playes a crucial role in estimating more reliable estimates of design rainfall uncertainty occurred by peak of upper tail than single Gumbel distribution. Therefore, it can be concluded that the mixed Gumbel distribution is more compatible for extreme frequency analysis rainfall data with two or more peaks on its distribution.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.1317-1328
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• 2021

This study aims to provide a predictive model based on climate models for simulating continuous daily rainfall sequences by combining bias-correction and spatio-temporal downscaling approaches. For these purposes, this study proposes a combined modeling system by applying conditional Copula and Multisite Non-stationary Hidden Markov Model (MNHMM). The GloSea5 system releases the monthly rainfall prediction on the same day every week, however, there are noticeable differences in the updated prediction. It was confirmed that the monthly rainfall forecasts are effectively updated with the use of the Copula-based bias-correction approach. More specifically, the proposed bias-correction approach was validated for the period from 1991 to 2010 under the LOOCV scheme. Several rainfall statistics, such as rainfall amounts, consecutive rainfall frequency, consecutive zero rainfall frequency, and wet days, are well reproduced, which is expected to be highly effective as input data of the hydrological model. The difference in spatial coherence between the observed and simulated rainfall sequences over the entire weather stations was estimated in the range of -0.02~0.10, and the interdependence between rainfall stations in the watershed was effectively reproduced. Therefore, it is expected that the hydrological response of the watershed will be more realistically simulated when used as input data for the hydrological model.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.209-219
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• 2022

To experimentally investigate the variation of soil characteristics in slope during rainfall and the shape of slope failure, the model test was performed using soil box and artificial rainfall simulator. The model test of slope formed by the homogenous sand was performed, and the saturation pattern in the model slope due to rainfall infiltration was observed. The slope model with the inclination of 35° was set up on the slope of 30°, and the rainfall intensity of 50 mm/hr was applied in the test. The soil depth of 35 cm was selected by considering the size of soil box, and the TDR (time domain reflectometry) sensors were installed at various depths to investigate the change of soil characteristics with time. As the result of model test, the slope model during rainfall was saturated from the soil surface to the subsurface, and from the toe part to the crest part due to rainfall infiltration. That is, the toe part of slope was firstly saturated by rainfall infiltration, and then due to continuous rainfall the saturation range was enlarged from the toe part to the crest part in the slope model. The failure of slope model was started at the toe part of slope and then enlarged to the crest part, which is called as the retrogressive failure. At the end of slope failure, the collapsed area increased rapidly. Also, the mode of slope failure was rotational. Meanwhile, the slope failure was occurred when the matric suction in the slope was reached to the air entry value (AEV) estimated in soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC).

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.17-27
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• 2008

In this study, three different unit hydrograph methods (Snyder, SCS, Clark) in the HEC-HMS were compared to find better fit with the observed data in the small agricultural watershed. Baran watershed, having $3.85km^2$ in size, was selected as a study watershed. The watershed input data for HEC-HMS were retrieved using HEC-GeoHMS which was developed to assist making GIS input data for HEC-HMS. Rainfall and water flow data were monitored since 1996 for the study watershed. Fifty five storms from 1996 to 2003 were selected for model calibration and verification. Three unit hydrograph methods were compared with the observed data in terms of simulated peak runoff, peak time and total direct runoff for the selected storms. The results showed that the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) for the observed peak runoff was $0.8666{\sim}0.8736$ and root mean square error, RMSE, was $5.25{\sim}6.37\;m^3/s$ for calibration stages. In the model verification, $R^2$ for the observed peak runoff was $0.8588{\sim}0.8638$ and RMSE was $9.57{\sim}11.80\;m^3/s$, which were slightly less accurate than the calibrated data. The simulated flood hydrographs were well agreed with the observed data. SCS unit hydrograph method showed best fit, but there was no significant difference among the three unit hydrograph methods.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.111-117
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• 2015

We investigate the influence of spatial rainfall distribution on hillslope soil erosion through laboratory experiments. Two distinct spatial distributions are examined in this study, i.e., rainfall concentrated on central area versus upper area of hillslope. During the entire period of 8 hours for each experiment, direct runoff, subsurface flow, and sediment yield are measured at high temporal resolution (10 minutes). Compared to the case that rainfalll concentrated on central area, upstream concentrated rainfall results in lower peak of the sediment yield curve while greater cumulative sediment yield. Cumulative sediment yield increases over time linearly but its growth rate shows a sudden decrease at around 2 hours. This should be taken into consideration when temporal variability of sediment yield is estimated from observed total amount, and demonstrates the necessity of measuring sediment yield at high temporal resolution.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.35-43
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• 2015

In this study, it was performed in characteristics of settlement of roadbed materials with variation of water content using cylinder model device. The ratio of settlement ($R_e$) of subgrade soils in the initial water content were about 2.08, whereas it was increased about 4.06 which resulted in increase two times in the initial water content. Also, it was monitoring long-term to measure variation of the field water contents at concrete track using rainfall measuring sensors. The water content at directly underneath of concrete track rarely seems to affect the variation of water content, but it was increased by about 4% than intial water content with 20 mm/hr rainfall index at slope section. As for the result from the field date, it was determined that the water content of the inner subgrade layer was rarely affect caused by more than 20 mm/h rainfall index during if good drainage system at concrete track properly maintained.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.31 no.9
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• pp.5-15
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• 2015

In this study, rainfall-induced slope stability and coupling effect are investigated using hydro-mechanical finite element model. This model is developed by formulating constitutive and coupled balance equations and is verified by comparing the numerical results with field matric suction. The homogeneous soil layer (soil column) and soil slope are modeled by this model, and the results of variation in matric suction, mean effective stress, porosity, displacement, factor of safety are compared with those of staggered analysis. It is found that the vertical and horizontal displacement from coupling analysis considering change in porosity is larger than that of staggered analysis. The displacement and matric suction from coupling analysis by rainfall infiltration can affect slope instability, which shows a progressive failure behavior. The lowest factor of safety is observed under short-term rainfall. This results confirm the fact that coupling analysis is needed to design soil slope under severe rain condition.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.34-40
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• 2015

It is reported that the intensity of rainfall will likely increase, on average, over the world on 2000. For water resources security, many studies for flow paths from rainfall or snowmelt to subsurface have been conducted. In Korea, few isotopic studies for characterizations of flow path have been undertaken. For a better understanding of how water derived from atmosphere moves to subsurface and from subsurface to stream, an analysis of precipitation and stream water using oxygen-18 and deuterium isotopes in a small watershed, Dorim-cheon, Seoul, was conducted with high resolution data. Variations of oxygen-18 in precipitation greater than 10‰ (δ¹⁸O_max = −1.21‰, δ¹⁸O_min = −11.23) were observed. Isotopic compositions of old water (groundwater) assumed as the stream water collected in advance were −8.98‰ and −61.85‰ for oxygen and hydrogen, respectively. Using a two-component mixing model, hydrograph separation of the stream water in Dorim-cheon was conducted based on weighted mean value of δ¹⁸O. As a result, except of instant dominance of rainfall, contribution of old water was dominant during the study period. On average, 71.3% of the old water and 28.7% of rainfall contributed to the stream water. The results show that even in the small watershed, which is covered with thin soil layer in granite mountain region, the stream water is considerably influenced by old water inflow rather than rainfall.