Because precipitation is influenced by various atmospheric variables, it is highly nonlinear. Although precipitation predicted by a dynamic model can be corrected by using a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network, this approach has limits such as choices of the initial weight, local minima and the number of neurons, etc. In the present paper, we correct simulated precipitation by using a multiple linear regression (MLR) method, which is simple and widely used. First of all, Ensemble hindcast is conducted by the PNU/CME Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) (Park and Ahn, 2004) for the period from April to August in 1979-2005. MLR is applied to precipitation simulated by PNU/CME CGCM for the months of June (lead 2), July (lead 3), August (lead 4) and seasonal mean JJA (from June to August) of the Northeast Asian region including the Korean Peninsula $(110^{\circ}-145^{\circ}E,\;25-55^{\circ}N)$. We build the MLR model using a linear relationship between observed precipitation and the hindcasted results from the PNU/CME CGCM. The predictor variables selected from CGCM are precipitation, 500 hPa vertical velocity, 200 hPa divergence, surface air temperature and others. After performing a leave-oneout cross validation, the results are compared with the PNU/CME CGCM's. The results including Heidke skill scores demonstrate that the MLR corrected results have better forecasts than the direct CGCM result for rainfall.
In this study, the future expected discharges are analyzed for Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed in Geum River watershed using A1B scenario based RCM with 27 km spatial resolutions from Korea Meteorological Agency and SWAT model. The direct use of GCM and RCM data for water resources impact assessment is practically hard because the spatial and temporal scales are different. In this study, the problems of spatial and temporal scales were settled by the spatial and temporal downscaling from watershed scale to weather station scale and from monthly to daily of RCM grid data. To generate the detailed hydrologic scenarios of the watershed scale, the multi-site non-stationary downscaling method was used to examine the fluctuations of rainfall events according to the future climate change with considerations of non-stationary. The similarity between simulation and observation results of inflows and discharges at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was respectively 90.1% and 84.3% which shows a good agreement with observed data using SWAT model from 2001 to 2006. The analysis period of climate change was selected for 80 years from 2011 to 2090 and the discharges are increased 6% in periods of 2011~2030. The seasonal patterns of discharges will be different from the present precipitation patterns because the simulated discharge of summer was decreased and the discharge of fall was increased.
Park, Dong-Hyeok;Yu, Ji Soo;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
/
v.50
no.10
/
pp.653-660
/
2017
The SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number) method has been practically applied for estimating the effective precipitation. The CN is used to be determined according to the land use condition based on the US standard. However, there are two distinctive differences between U.S. and Korean land use conditions: mountainous (forest) and rice paddy area that cover more than 70% of the Korean territory. The previous work proposed to use 79 for rice paddy area, regardless of the soil type. Because US SCS's goal was originally to increase crops, the SCS classification standard provides only for woods and there are no criteria to distinguish the wood and forest. To determine the CN for forest, alternatively the U.S. Forest Service criteria have been employed in practice considering hydrologic condition class. In this study, we investigated the change of the forest CN using the observed rainfall - runoff data within the target area. The results indicated that the CN for forest was suitable for HC=1, and the corresponding CNs were redetermined between 54 and 55.
Long-term high-resolution hydro-meteorological data has been recognized as an essential element in establishing the water resources plan. The increasing demand for spatial precipitation in various areas such as climate, hydrology, geography, ecology, and environment is apparent. However, potential limitations of the existing area-weighted and numerical interpolation methods for interpolating precipitation in high altitude areas remains less explored. The proposed PRISM (Precipitation-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) model can produce gridded precipitation that can adequately consider topographic characteristics (e.g., slope and altitude), which are not substantially included in the existing interpolation techniques. In this study, the PRISM model was optimized with SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis-University of Arizona) to produce daily gridded precipitation. As a result, the minimum impact radius was calculated 9.10 km and the maximum 34.99 km. The altitude of coastal weighted was 681.03 m, the minimum and maximum distances from coastal were 9.85 km and 38.05 km. The distance weighting factor was calculated to be about 0.87, confirming that the PRISM result was very sensitive to distance. The results showed that the proposed PRISM model could reproduce the observed statistical properties reasonably well.
Researches about NPS(Non-point Pollution Source) reduction have been widely carried out in recent years. A pilot channel-type constructed wetland (wet swale) was constructed in Rongyin area to treat stormwater generated from a green house agro-land of 22.7 ha. From 2006 to 2008, monitoring was conducted to evaluate its performance on the removal effect for organic pollutants as well as nutrients. Totally, sampling trips of 17 rainfall events were made and they covered most types of storm events in Korea. The channel-type constructed wetland have average removal efficiencies of 78.3~92.0%, 56.4~66.1%, 28.2~45.5% and 50.6~66.4% for SS, COD, TN and TP, respectively. According to four methods for estimating the removal efficiency, the average efficiencies of TSS, COD, TN and TP are 86.0%, 60.1%, 30.1% and 53.5%, respectively. From 2006 to 2008, annual efficiency improved due to infiltration potential increase. It was found that most of the pollutants removed in this channel type of wetland was particulate solids bound pollutants, which is assumed fact that it lacks of physico-chemical treatment conditions which are commonly observed in the retention type of constructed wetlands.
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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v.18
no.12
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pp.17-25
/
2017
Owing to recent climate change, the scale of rainfall tends to increase gradually and the risk of flooding has increased. Therefore, the importance of improving the levee management and disaster response is increasing. Levee management in Korea is carried out at the level of damage recovery after the occurrence of damage. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a technology for predicting and managing the levee safety with proactive river management. In this study, a method to estimate the safety against erosion and overflow was suggested. A map of levee safety that can be used as basic data is presented by displaying the levee safety on the map. The levee erosion safety was calculated as the ratio of the internal and external force for each shore type. The levee overflow safety was calculated as the ratio of the maximum conveyance and design flood. The maximum conveyance was a discharge when the level of the river was equal to the level of the levee crown. The levee safety was classified into 5 grades: very safe, safe, normal, dangerous, and very dangerous. As a research area from downstream of Nam River Dam to Nakdong River Junction, the levee safety against erosion and overflow was estimated for all levees and all cross-sections of the river. The levee safety was displayed on a map using GIS. Through the levee safety map as a result of this study, the levee safety can be observed intuitively. Using the levee safety map, a maintenance plan for a river can be easy to build. This levee safety map can be used to help determine the priority of investment for efficient budget used.
Lots of pollutants typically originating from urban transportation are accumulating on the paved surfaces during dry periods and are washed-off directly to the river during a storm. Also, paved surfaces are contributing to increase in peak flows and volume of stormwater flows. These are the main reasons why the water quality of rivers and lakes remain polluted and still below standards. Currently, several management practices are being applied in developed countries but the design standards are still lacking. This research was conducted to develop a treatment technology that can be useful to address the problems concerning runoff quality and quantity. A lab scale infiltration device consisting of a pretreatment tank and media zone was designed and tested for various flow regimes characterizing the low, average and high intensity rainfall. Based on the experiments, the high intensity flow resulted to increase in outflow event mean concentration (EMC) of pollutants, about twice as much as the average outflow EMC. However, 78 to 88% of the total suspended solids were captured and retained in the pretreatment tank because of sedimentation. The removal of heavy metals such as zinc and lead was greatly affected by the vertical placement of woodchip layer prior to the media zone. It was observed that the high carbon content (almost 50%) in the woodchip provided opportunity for enhancing its uptake of metal by adsorption. The findings implied that the reduction of pollutants can be greatly achieved by means of proper pretreatment to allow for settling of particles with a combination of using high carbon source media like woodchip and a geotextile mat to reduce the flow before filtering into the media zone and finally discharging to the drainage system.
The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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v.3
no.4
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pp.193-202
/
1998
Water quality of Masan-Jinhae Bay was monitored from January 1996 to August 1997. The monitoring focused on the spatial and vertical gradients and seasonal changes of eutrophication parameters such as nutrients, DO and water transparency. Flagellate phytoplanktons persistently bloomed from April to October with monospecific or mixed algal blooms and dynamic algal successions were observed in this area. Algal blooms were highly correlated with salinity drops and made the water less transparent. Stratification of oxygen content was persistent through summer and oligo-oxygenation was developed in the bottom waters. Nutrient gradients were consistently maintained through the depth in summer and through spatial distribution from inner Masan Bay to outer Jinhae Bay in winter. Except the rainfall seasons, water quality was under the influence of the waste waters discharged from watershed around the Masan Bay. The waste waters would act as the primary factor for the water quality deterioration of the bay. Literature data for eutrophication were gathered and analyzed to review the water quality trends of the Masan and Jinhae bays since 1970. Annual mean COD and phosphate concentration consistently increased from 1975 to 1990 and decreased or dropped after 1991. The sediment of inner part of Masan Bay was dredged from 1991 to 1994 as a decontamination process and it is assumed that the dredging has weakened more or less the deterioration trend of the water quality of the bay.
Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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v.57
no.5
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pp.139-152
/
2015
Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and frequency of extreme climate events show unstable tendency of increase. Thus, to comprehend the change characteristics of precipitation data, it is needed to consider non-stationary. The main objectives of this study were to estimate future design floods for Wonpyeongcheon watershed based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario. Wonpyeongcheon located in the Keum River watershed was selected as the study area. Historical precipitation data of the past 35 years (1976~2010) were collected from the Jeonju meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP4.5 were also obtained for the period of 2011~2100. Systematic bias between observed and simulated data were corrected using the quantile mapping (QM) method. The parameters for the bias-correction were estimated by non-parametric method. A non-stationary frequency analysis was conducted with moving average method which derives change characteristics of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution parameters. Design floods for different durations and frequencies were estimated using rational formula. As the result, the GEV parameters (location and scale) showed an upward tendency indicating the increase of quantity and fluctuation of an extreme precipitation in the future. The probable rainfall and design flood based on non-stationarity showed higher values than those of stationarity assumption by 1.2%~54.9% and 3.6%~54.9%, respectively, thus empathizing the necessity of non-stationary frequency analysis. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze the impacts of climate change and to reconsider the future design criteria of Wonpyeongcheon watershed.
The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
/
v.2
no.1
/
pp.1-7
/
1997
We have monitored nutrients, chlorophyll, suspended solids, and salinity in the Keum Estuary to understand the temporal fluctuation of oceanographic parameters and to illustrate any variation due to the gate operation of the Keum River Dike from June, 1995 to September, 1996, approximately for 500 days. Tidal range is used as the key factor to explain the fluctuations and atmospheric parameters such as air temperature, wind velocity and rainfall are also used supplementally. The fresh water discharge was selected as another major impact on the estuarine environment due to the gate operation of the Keum Dike. In addition, daily variation by tidal cycle was investigated twice in April and July, 1996. In diurnal variation, salinity was positively correlated with tidal elevation, whereas negatively correlated with nutrients. Relatively high suspended solid and chlorophyll contents were found in the period between high and low tide. In 500 days continuous observations, salinity was negatively correlated with the volume of fresh-water discharge, but positively correlated with nutrients. A major chlorophyll bloom occurred in spring. A similar pattern of variation was observed between suspended solid and the neap-spring tidal cycle. In comparison with the data of the Keurn Estuary before the gate operation of the Keum River dike, fresh-water discharge predominated other environmental factors during the rainy season. In addition, the velocity of tidal current and the concentration of suspended solid were decreased, while nutrients and chlorophyll contents were increased.
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