• Title/Summary/Keyword: Numerical weather forecast

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Study on the Angular Momentum of Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone in the Developing Stage (발달 단계의 축대칭 열대저기압의 각운동량에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Hyun-Gyu;Cheong, Hyeong-Bin
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2013
  • The angular momentum transport of an idealized axisymmetric vortex in the developing stage was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The balanced axisymmetric vortex was constructed based on an empirical function for tangential wind, and the temperature, geopotential, and surface pressure were obtained from the balanced equation. The numerical simulation was carried out for 6 days on the f-plane with the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) set as constant. The weak vortex at initial time was intensified with time, and reached the strength of tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The Absolute Angular Momentum (AAM) was transported along with the secondary circulation of the vortex. Total AAM integrated over a cylinder of radius of 2000 km decreased with simulation time, but total kinetic energy increased rapidly. From the budget analysis, it was found that the surface friction is mainly responsible for the decrease of total AAM. Also, contribution of the surface friction to the AAM loss was about 90% while that of horizontal advection was as small as 8%. The trajectory of neutral numerical tracers following the secondary circulation was presented for the Lagrangian viewpoint of the transports of absolute angular momentum. From the analysis using the trajectory of tracers it was found that the air parcel was under the influence of the surface friction continuously until it leaves the boundary layer near the core. Then the air parcel with reduced amount of angular momentum compared to its original amount was transported from boundary layer to upper level of the vortex and contributed to form the anti-cyclone. These results suggest that the tropical cyclone loses angular momentum as it develops, which is due to the dissipation of angular momentum by the surface friction.

Observed Characteristics of Precipitation Timing during the Severe Hazes: Implication to Aerosol-Precipitation Interactions (연무 종류별 강수 발생시간 관측 특성 및 에어로졸-강수 연관성 분석)

  • Eun, Seung-Hee;Zhang, Wenting;Park, Sung-Min;Kim, Byung-Gon;Park, Jin-Soo;Kim, Jeong-Soo;Park, Il-Soo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.175-185
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    • 2018
  • Characteristics of precipitation response to enhanced aerosols have been investigated during the severe haze events observed in Korea for 2011 to 2016. All 6-years haze events are classified into long-range transported haze (LH: 31%), urban haze (UH: 28%), and yellow sand (YS: 18%) in order. Long-range transported one is mainly discussed in this study. Interestingly, both LH (68%) and YS (87%) appear to be more frequently accompanied with precipitation than UH (48%). We also found out the different timing of precipitation for LH and YS, respectively. The variations of precipitation frequency for the LH event tend to coincide with aerosol variations specifically in terms of temporal covariation, which is in contrast with YS. Increased aerosol loadings following precipitation for the YS event seems to be primarily controlled by large scale synoptic forcing. Meanwhile, aerosols for the LH event may be closely associated with precipitation longevity through changes in cloud microphysics such that enhanced aerosols can increase smaller cloud droplets and further extend light precipitation at weaker rate. Notably, precipitation persisted longer than operational weather forecast not considering detailed aerosol-cloud interactions, but the timescale was limited within a day. This result demonstrates active interactions between aerosols and meteorology such as probable modifications of cloud microphysics and precipitation, synoptic-induced dust transport, and precipitation-scavenging in Korea. Understanding of aerosol potential effect on precipitation will contribute to improving the performance of numerical weather model especially in terms of precipitation timing and location.

Operational Hydrological Forecast for the Nakdong River Basin Using HSPF Watershed Model (HSPF 유역모델을 이용한 낙동강유역 실시간 수문 유출 예측)

  • Shin, Changmin;Na, Eunye;Lee, Eunjeong;Kim, Dukgil;Min, Joong-Hyuk
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.212-222
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    • 2013
  • A watershed model was constructed using Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran to quantitatively predict the stream flows at major tributaries of Nakdong River basin, Korea. The entire basin was divided into 32 segments to effectively account for spatial variations in meteorological data and land segment parameter values of each tributary. The model was calibrated at ten tributaries including main stream of the river for a three-year period (2008 to 2010). The deviation values (Dv) of runoff volumes for operational stream flow forecasting for a six month period (2012.1.2 to 2012.6.29) at the ten tributaries ranged from -38.1 to 23.6%, which is on average 7.8% higher than those of runoff volumes for model calibration (-12.5 to 8.2%). The increased prediction errors were mainly from the uncertainties of numerical weather prediction modeling; nevertheless the stream flow forecasting results presented in this study were in a good agreement with the measured data.

Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Study on the Climate Impacts of the Atmospheric Brown Clouds (무인항공기를 이용한 대기갈색연무의 기후효과 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Woo;Yoon, Soon-Chang
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.519-530
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    • 2010
  • In this paper we review current research on Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) with lightweight Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and miniaturized instruments. The UAV technology for in-situ measurements, including aerosol concentration, aerosol size distribution, aerosol absorption, cloud drop size distribution, solar radiation fluxes (visible and broadband), and spectral radiative fluxes, is a leading-edge technology for cost-effective atmospheric sounding, which can fill the gap between the ground measurement and satellite observation. The first experimental observation with UAVs in Korea, Cheju ABC Plume Monsoon Experiment (CAPMEX), conducted during summer 2008 revealed that the Beijing plumes exerted a strong positive influence on the net warming and fossil-fuel-dominated black-carbon plumes were approximately 100% more efficient warming agents than biomass-burning-dominated plumes. Long-term sustainable routine UAV measurements will eventually provide truly three-dimensional data of ABCs, which is necessary for the better understanding of their climate impacts and for the improvement of numerical models for air pollution, weather forecast and climate change.

Assessing Forecast Accuracy of the UM numerical weather model for the Hydrological Application (수문학적 목적의 UM 수치예보자료의 예측정확성 평가)

  • Uranchimeg, Sumiya;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Kyung-Wook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.233-233
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    • 2017
  • 현재의 기술과 전문가들의 지식을 바탕으로 수치 예보 모델의 해상도가 점차 증가하고 있으나 한편으로는 해상도가 높아질수록 신뢰성 있는 장기 예보를 제공하는데 어려움이 있다. 즉, 고해상도 모델의 경우 미세한 오차가 발생 하더라도, 실제 기상학적 관점에서 시공간적으로 변동성이 크게 발생할 개연성이 크며, 이로 인해 모델에서 발생하는 불확실성은 더욱 커질 수 있다. 한국 기상청(KMA)에서는 영국기상청으로부터 도입한 통합모델(UM)을 현업 운영하고 있다. 본 연구에서 기상청 통합모델인 UM3.0 예보모델의 예측정확성을 다양한 관점에서 평가하고자 한다. 기상청 UM3.0 모델은 3km의 공간해상도와 1시간 시간해상도를 가지며, 예보시작시점기준 7일간의 예보정보를 제공한다. 강수량 예측정보의 활용성을 평가하기 위해서 예측 시계열에 대해 RMSE, 편의 및 등 다양한 통계지표와 공간적인 강수량 발생 특성을 평가하기 위해서 FSS 방법을 적용하였다. 본 연구 결과를 통해 UM3.0 모델의 1시간 및 3km의 시공간해상도와 선행예보 기간을 그대로 수문학적으로 활용하는 데에는 다소 무리가 있는 것으로 평가되었으며, 이러한 점에서 수문학적 활용관점에서 최적의 시공간적 규모와 선행예보 시간을 분석하였다.

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Improving Satellite Derived Soil Moisture Data Using Data Assimilation Methods (자료동화 기법을 이용한 위성영상 추출 토양수분 자료 개선)

  • Hwang, Soonho;Ryu, Jeong Hoon;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.152-152
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    • 2018
  • Soil moisture is a important factor in hydrologic analysis. So, if we have spatially distributed soil moisture data, it can help to study much research in a various field. Recently, there are a lot of satellite derived soil moisture data, and it can be served through web freely. Especially, NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) launched the Soil Moisture Aperture Passive (SMAP) satellite for mapping global soil moisture on 31 January 2015. SMAP data have many advantages for study, for example, SMAP data has higher spatial resolution than other satellited derived data. However, becuase many satellited derived soil moisture data have a limitation to data accuracy, if we have ancillary materials for improving data accuracy, it can be used. So, in this study, after applying the alogorithm, which is data assimilation methods, applicability of satellite derived soil moisture data was analyzed. Among the various data assimilation methods, in this study, Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique was used for improving satellite derived soil moisture data. Model Output Statistics (MOS) is a type of statistical post-processing, a class of techniques used to improve numerical weather models' ability to forecast by relating model outputs to observational or additional model data.

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Relationship between the Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Distribution and Initiation Timing of the Typhoon Season in the Northwestern Pacific (열대 해수면 온도 분포와 북서태평양 태풍의 계절적 활동 시작일 변동 사이의 관련성)

  • Kim, Donghee;Kim, Hyeong-Seog
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2017
  • This study examined the relationship between the initiation timing typhoon season in the Northwestern Pacific and the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) using a numerical simulation. The initiation timing of the typhoon season is closely associated with SSTs over the Indian Ocean (IO) and the eastern Pacific (EP) in the preceding winter and early-spring. The experiment based on the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model showed that the start date of the typhoon season is delayed for about one month when the SSTs over the IO and the EP increase in the preceding winter. The forced tropical SST pattern induces anticyclonic anomalies in the Northwestern Pacific, which is an unfavorable condition for typhoon development, and hence it could delay the initiation of the typhoon season.

New evaluation of ship mooring with friction effects on mooring rope and cost-benefit estimation to improve port safety

  • Lee, Sang-Won;Sasa, Kenji;Aoki, Shin-ich;Yamamoto, Kazusei;Chen, Chen
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.306-320
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    • 2021
  • To ensure safe port operations around the world, it is important to solve mooring problems. In particular, the many ports that face open seas have difficulties with long-period waves. As a countermeasure, the installation of a breakwater is proposed for mooring safety. However, this often cannot be put into practice because of financial issues. Instead, port terminals control berthing schedules with weather forecasting. However, mooring problems remain unsolved, because of inaccurate wave forecasting. To quantify the current situation, numerical simulations are presented with ship motions, fender deflections, and rope tensions. In addition, novel simulations for mooring ropes are proposed considering tension, friction, bending fatigue, and temperature. With this novel simulation, the optimal mooring method in terms of safety and economic efficiency was confirmed. In terms of safety, the optimal mooring method is verified to minimize dangerous mooring situations. Moreover, the optimal mooring method shows economic benefits and efficiency. It can help to reinforce the safety of port terminals and improve the efficiency of port operations.

A Simulation of Agro-Climate Index over the Korean Peninsula Using Dynamical Downscaling with a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (수치예보모형을 이용한 역학적 규모축소 기법을 통한 농업기후지수 모사)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Hur, Ji-Na;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2010
  • A regional climate model (RCM) can be a powerful tool to enhance spatial resolution of climate and weather information (IPCC, 2001). In this study we conducted dynamical downscaling using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a RCM in order to obtain high resolution regional agroclimate indices over the Korean Peninsula. For the purpose of obtaining detailed high resolution agroclimate indices, we first reproduced regional weather for the period of March to June, 2002-2008 with dynamic downscaling method under given lateral boundary conditions from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data. Normally, numerical model results have shown biases against observational results due to the uncertainties in the modelis initial conditions, physical parameterizations and our physical understanding on nature. Hence in this study, by employing a statistical method, the systematic bias in the modelis results was estimated and corrected for better reproduction of climate on high resolution. As a result of the correction, the systematic bias of the model was properly corrected and the overall spatial patterns in the simulation were well reproduced, resulting in more fine-resolution climatic structures. Based on these results, the fine-resolution agro-climate indices were estimated and presented. Compared with the indices derived from observation, the simulated indices reproduced the major and detailed spatial distributions. Our research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate on high resolution and agro-climate indices by using a proper downscaling method with a dynamical weather forecast model and a statistical correction method to minimize the model bias.

A Case Study on the Impact of Ground-based Glaciogenic Seeding on Winter Orographic Clouds at Daegwallyeong (겨울철 대관령지역 지형성 구름에 대한 지상기반 구름씨뿌리기 영향 사례연구)

  • Yang, Ha-Young;Chae, Sanghee;Jeong, Jin-Yim;Seo, Seong-Kyu;Park, Young-San;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.301-314
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on orographic clouds in the Daegwallyeong area on 13 March, 2013. The experiments was conducted by releasing silver iodide (AgI) under following conditions: surface temperature below $-4^{\circ}C$, wind direction between 45 and $130^{\circ}$, and wind speed less than $5ms^{-1}$. Two seeding rates, $38gh^{-1}$ (SR1) and $113gh^{-1}$ (SR2), were tested to obtain an appropriate AgI ratio for snowfall enhancement in the Daegwallyeong area. Numerical simulations were carried out by using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model with AgI point-source module which predicted dispersion fields of AgI particles. The results indicated that the target orographic clouds contained adequate amount of supercooled liquid water and that the dispersion of AgI particles tended to move along the prevailing wind direction. To validate the seeding effects, the observation data from FM-120 and MPS as well as PARSIVEL disdrometer were analyzed. In this case study, glaciogenic seeding significantly increased the concentration of small ice particles below 1 mm in diameter. The observation results suggest that SR1 seeding be reasonable to use the ground-based seeding in the Daegwallyeong area.