• Title/Summary/Keyword: Numerical Prediction

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The Method of Quantitative Analysis Based on Big Data Analysis for Explanatory Variables Containing Uncertainty of Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings - Focused on Apartment in Seoul Korea (주거용 건물의 에너지 실사용량의 불확실성을 내포한 설명변수 인자에 대한 빅데이터 분석 기반의 정량화 방법 - 서울지역의 공동주택을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jun-Woo;Ahn, Seung-Ho;Park, Byung-Hee;Ko, Jung-Lim;Shin, Jee-Woong
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The energy consumption of apartment units is affected by the lifestyle of the residents rather than system technology. In this study the numerical analysis of assumed energy consumption correlation factors with arbitrary value due to uncertainty. It is intended to be used as a simulation correction value which can be utilized as a predicted value of actual energy usage. The correction value of the simulation is set in the developed form of the existing process that derives the actual usage amount. The simulation results used in the existing evaluation system are used to maintain the useful value as the current system evaluation scale and predict the actual capacity. Method: The method of the study is to statistically analyze the data frames of all complexes capable of collecting the annual energy usage and to reconstruct the population by adding the variables that are expected to be correlated. Repeat the data frame configuration with variables that are assumed to be highly correlated with energy use levels. Determine whether there is correlation or not. The intensity of the external characteristics of the building equipment related to the energy consumption is presented as the quantitative value. Result: The correlation between electricity consumption and trading price since 2010 is analyzed as (Correlation coefficient 0.82). These results are higher than (Correlation coefficient 0.79), which is the correlation between residential area and trading price. This paper signifies the starting point of the methodology that broadens the field of view of verification of simulation feasibility limited to the prediction technique focused on the simulation tool and the element technology scope.The diversified phenomenon reproduction method develops the existing energy simulation method.It can be completed with a simulation methodology that can infer actual energy consumption.

Experimental Study on the Characteristics of Local Scour Hole Downstream of V-shaped Drop Structure Model (V자형 낙차공 모형 직하류 국부세굴공 발생특성에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Eom, Junghyun;Han, Hyeongjun;Park, Sung Won;Ahn, Jungkyu
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.8-14
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    • 2019
  • A drop structure, one of the representative river-crossing structures, is constructed to stabilize a riverbed. On the other hand, the structure interrupts the continuity of the river and causes the destruction of the hydro-ecological environment. Therefore, laboratory experiments of a natural type of drop structure with low differences were performed, and the empirical formula of a local scour hole is proposed. Four experimental flow rates were tested for various types of the drop structure models with 28 test cases. Based on the scour test, it was confirmed that the maximum scour depth occurs rather than the result of applying the previously proposed scour depth formulae. Correlation analysis of the major factors of scour hole at the downstream of the drop structure revealed a strong correlation between the upstream flow characteristics, drop structure height, and total crossing length of the drop model. In addition, the depth and length estimation formula of the maximum scour hole were proposed using the dimensionless variables and validated. In the future, it is also expected that more accurate scour prediction and calculation can be derived by conducting experimental studies and numerical analysis considering the various bed materials and flow conditions.

Expectation-Based Model Explaining Boom and Bust Cycles in Housing Markets (주택유통시장에서 가격거품은 왜 발생하는가?: 소비자의 기대에 기초한 가격 변동주기 모형)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

A Numerical Study on the Optimization of Urea Solution Injection to Maximize Conversion Efficiency of NH3 (NH3 전환효율 극대화를 위한 Urea 인젝터의 분사 최적화에 관한 수치적 연구)

  • Moon, Seongjoon;Jo, Nakwon;Oh, Sedoo;Jeong, Soojin;Park, Kyoungwoo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2014
  • From now on, in order to meet more stringer diesel emission standard, diesel vehicle should be equipped with emission after-treatment devices as NOx reduction catalyst and particulate filters. Urea-SCR is being developed as the most efficient method of reducing NOx emissions in the after-treatment devices of diesel engines, and recent studies have begun to mount the urea-SCR device for diesel passenger cars and light duty vehicles. That is because their operational characteristics are quite different from heavy duty vehicles, urea solution injection should be changed with other conditions. Therefore, the number and diameter of the nozzle, injection directions, mounting positions in front of the catalytic converter are important design factors. In this study, major design parameters concerning urea solution injection in front of SCR are optimized by using a CFD analysis and Taguchi method. The computational prediction of internal flow and spray characteristics in front of SCR was carried out by using STAR-CCM+7.06 code that used to evaluate $NH_3$ uniformity index($NH_3$ UI). The design parameters are optimized by using the $L_{16}$ orthogonal array and small-the-better characteristics of the Taguchi method. As a result, the optimal values are confirmed to be valid in 95% confidence and 5% significance level through analysis of variance(ANOVA). The compared maximize $NH_3$ UI and activation time($NH_3$ UI 0.82) are numerically confirmed that the optimal model provides better conversion efficiency of $NH_3$. In addition, we propose a method to minimize wall-wetting around the urea injector in order to prevent injector blocks caused by solid urea loading. Consequently, the thickness reduction of fluid film in front of mixer is numerically confirmed through the mounting mixer and correcting injection direction by using the trial and error method.

Coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical Behavior of Rock Mass Surrounding Cavern Thermal Energy Storage (암반공동 열에너지저장소 주변 암반의 열-수리-역학적 연계거동 분석)

  • Park, Jung-Wook;Rutqvist, Jonny;Ryu, Dongwoo;Synn, Joong-Ho;Park, Eui-Seob
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2015
  • The thermal-hydrological-mechanical (T-H-M) behavior of rock mass surrounding a high-temperature cavern thermal energy storage (CTES) operated for a period of 30 years has been investigated by TOUGH2-FLAC3D simulator. As a fundamental study for the development of prediction and control technologies for the environmental change and rock mass behavior associated with CTES, the key concerns were focused on the hydrological-thermal multiphase flow and the consequential mechanical behavior of the surrounding rock mass, where the insulator performance was not taken into account. In the present study, we considered a large-scale cylindrical cavern at shallow depth storing thermal energy of $350^{\circ}C$. The numerical results showed that the dominant heat transfer mechanism was the conduction in rock mass, and the mechanical behavior of rock mass was influenced by thermal factor (heat) more than hydrological factor (pressure). The effective stress redistribution, displacement and surface uplift caused by heating of rock and boiling of ground-water were discussed, and the potential of shear failure was quantitatively examined. Thermal expansion of rock mass led to the ground-surface uplift on the order of a few centimeters and the development of tensile stress above the storage cavern, increasing the potential of shear failure.

Case Study on Stability Assessment of Pre-existing Fault at CO2 Geologic Storage (CO2 지중저장 시 단층 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Hyunwoo;Cheon, Dae-Sung;Choi, Byung-Hee;Choi, Hun-Soo;Park, Eui-Seob
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.13-30
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    • 2013
  • Increase of pore fluid pressure resulting from injection of $CO_2$ may reactivate pre-existing faults, and the induced seismic activities can raise the safety issues such as seal integrity, restoration of storage capacity, and, in the worst case, removal of previously injected $CO_2$. Thus, fault stability and potential for $CO_2$ leakage need to be assessed at the stage of site selection and planning of injection pressure, based on the results of large-scale site investigations and numerical modeling for various scenarios. In this report, studies on the assessment of fault stability during injection of $CO_2$ were reviewed. The seismic activities associated with an artificial injection of fluids or a release of naturally trapped high-pressure fluids were first examined, and then site investigation methods for the magnitude and orientation of in situ stresses, the distribution and change of pore fluid pressure, and the location of faults were generally summarized. Recent research cases on possibility estimation of fault reactivation, prediction of seismic magnitude, and modeling of $CO_2$ leakage through a reactivated fault were presented.

A Study on Mine Ventilation Network (광산 통기 네트워크 연구)

  • Kim, Soo Hong;Kim, Yun Kwang;Kim, Sun Myung;Jang, Yun Ho
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.217-229
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    • 2017
  • This study focuses on the improvement of the working environment in domestic collieries where temperature is increasing due to heat of the earth that is caused by the long-term mining. In order to improve the working environment of the mine, a ventilation evaluation was carried out for Hwasoon Mining Industry. In order to increase the ventilation efficiency of the mine, numerical analysis of the effect on temperature was carried out by using climsim, a temperature prediction program. The analysis shows that A coal mine needs $6,152m^3/min$ for in-flow ventilation rate but the total input air flowrate is $4,710m^3/min$, $1,442m^3/min$ of in-flow ventilation rate shortage. The 93 m hypothetical ventilation shaft from -395 ML to -488 ML could result about $3^{\circ}C$ temperature drop in the coal mine of -488 ML far. As a result of predicting the $CO_2$ concentration at -523 ML development using artificial neural network, the emission of $CO_2$ increased as the amount of coal and coal bed thickness increased. The factors that have the greatest effect on the amount of $CO_2$ emissions were coal layer thickness and coal mining. And, as the air quantity increases, it has a great effect on the decrease of carbon dioxide concentration.

Unsteady RANS computations of turbulent flow in a high-amplitude meandering channel (고진폭 만곡수로에서 난류흐름의 비정상 RANS 수치모의)

  • Lee, Seungkyu;Paik, Joongcheol
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2017
  • Turbulent flow structure in the high amplitude meandering channel is complex due to secondary recirculation with helicoidal motions and shear layers formed by flow separation from the curved sidewall. In this work, the secondary flow and the superelevation of the water surface produced in the high-amplitude Kinoshita channel are reproduced by the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations using the VOF technique for resolving the variation of water surface elevation and three statistical turbulence models ($k-{\varepsilon}$, RNG $k-{\varepsilon}$, $k-{\omega}$ SST). The numerical results computed by a second-order accurate finite volume method are compared with an existing experimental measurement. Among applied turbulence models, $k-{\omega}$ SST model relatively well predicts overall distribution of the secondary recirculation in the Kinoshita channel, while all three models yield similar prediction of water superelevation transverse slope. The secondary recirculation driven by the radial acceleration in the upstream bend affects the flow structure in the downstream bend, which yields a pair of counter-rotating vortices at the bend apex. This complex flow pattern is reasonably well reproduced by the $k-{\omega}$ SST model. Both $k-{\varepsilon}$ based models fail to predict the clockwise-rotating vortex between a pair of counter-rotating vortices which was observed in the experiment. Regardless of applied turbulence models, the present computations using the VOF method appear to well reproduce the superelevation of water surface through the meandering channel.

Dynamic Characteristics Analysis of Spherical Shell with Initial Deflection(II) - Effects of Initial Deflection - (초기 처짐을 갖는 Spherical Shell의 동적 특성에 관한 연구(II) - 초기 처짐에 따른 동적 특성 -)

  • Cho, Jin-Goo
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 1998
  • The widespread use of thin shell structures has created a need for a systematic method of analysis which can adequately account for arbitrary geometric form and boundary conditions as well as arbitrary general type of loading. Therefore, the stress and analysis of thin shell has been one of the more challenging areas of structural mechanics. A wide variety of numerical methods have been applied to the governing differential equations for spherical and cylindrical structures with a few results applicable to practice. The analysis of axisymmetric spherical shell is almost an every day occurrence in many industrial applications. A reliable and accurate finite element analysis procedure for such structures was needed. Dynamic loading of structures often causes excursions of stresses well into the inelastic range and the influence of geometry changes on the response is also significant in many cases. Therefore both material and geometric nonlinear effects should be considered. In general, the shell structures designed according to quasi-static analysis may fail under conditions of dynamic loading. For a more realistic prediction on the load carrying capacity of these shell, in addition to the dynamic effect, consideration should also include other factors such as nonlinearities in both material and geometry since these factors, in different manner, may also affect the magnitude of this capacity. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the dynamic characteristics of spherical shell. For these purposes, the spherical shell subjected to uniformly distributed step load was analyzed for its large displacements elasto-viscoplastic static and dynamic response. Geometrically nonlinear behaviour is taken into account using a Total Lagrangian formulation and the material behaviour is assumed to elasto-viscoplastic model highly corresponding to the real behaviour of the material. The results for the dynamic characteristics of spherical shell in the cases under various conditions of base-radius/central height(a/H) and thickness/shell radius(t/R) were summarized as follows : The dynamic characteristics with a/H. 1) AS the a/H increases, the amplitude of displacement in creased. 2) The values of displacement dynamic magnification factor (DMF) were ranges from 2.9 to 6.3 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell were ranged from 1.8 to 2.6. 3) As the a/H increases, the values of DMF in the crown of shell is decreased rapidly but the values of DMF in mid-point shell is increased gradually. 4) The values of DMF of hoop-stresses were range from 3.6 to 6.8 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell were ranged from 2.3 to 2.6, and the values of DMF of stress were larger than that of displacement. The dynamic characteristics with t/R. 5) With the thickness of shell decreases, the amplitude of the displacement and the period increased. 6) The values of DMF of the displacement were ranged from 2.8 to 3.6 in the crown of shell and the values of factor in the mid-point of shell were ranged from 2.1 to 2.2.

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Numerical Simulations of Water Quality in ManKyong River (QUAL-II E 모델에 의(依)한 만경강(萬頃江)의 수질예측(水質豫測))

  • Shim, Jae-Hwan;Choi, Moon-Sul
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 1991
  • The QUAL-II E Model was applied to predict the water quality of the Mankyong drainage System, and lead to following conclusion. 1. The difference between computed and measured BOD at the M-3 (Bakgugeong) station was within 10%, indicating that the application of the QUAL-IIE Model for the prediction of water quality was satisfactory thus far. 2. The application of the model states that the discharge of concentrated pollutants at the M-1 station on the Jeonju stream, located 41Km upstream from the estuary, causes the worst problems. The sluice which extends residence time and enlarges watery surface improves water quality by a Self-purification process at the M-3 station, 28km upstream from the estuary. 3. The accuracy of the model diminished when this model was applied on the estuary downstream of the sluice. Hence, the application of the model on the estuary needs to be used with caution. 4. Among the conputed water quality parameters, BOD is the worst problem. At the M-3 station, BOD is computed to be 26.6 mg/1 in 1996, 30.7 mg/1 in 2,001, 33.0 mg/l in 2006, and 37.5 mg/1 in 2011. When preventive measures against water pollution are not properly exercised, severe problems in irrigation and water resources are expected. This study will be of used in the selection of irrigation water intake points, the criteria of effluent treatment, the management of water resources, and the establishment of water quality managemont policy.

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