• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.65 no.5
• /
• pp.851-856
• /
• 2016

Wind speed is heavily fluctuated and quite local than other weather elements. It is difficult to improve the accuracy of prediction only in a numerical prediction model. An MOS (Model Output Statistics) technique is used to correct the systematic errors of the model using a statistical data analysis. The Most of previous MOS has used a linear regression model for weather prediction, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction of wind speed. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear regression method using SVR (Support Vector Regression) is introduced for a development of MOS for wind speed prediction. Experiments are performed for KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) re-analysis data from 2007 to 2013 year for Jeju Island and Busan area in South Korea. The MLR and SVR based linear and nonlinear methods are compared to each other for prediction accuracy of wind speed. Also, the comparison experiments are executed for the variation in the number of UM elements.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.218-226
• /
• 2020

This study investigated that the numerical experiment for analysis on free overtopping flow by a weir of levee type, as the first stage of the development of a numerical technique for prediction methodology based on a numerical model. Using 2-dimensional flow models, Nays2DH, we conducted numerical simulations based on existing experimental data to compare and verify the models. We firstly discussed the numerical reproducibility for the discontinued flow by weir shape, and calibrated the computational flow through preprocessing of channel bed. Further, we carried out and compared the simulations for prediction on the overtopping flow by the number of weir gates. As a result of simulations, we found that the maximum flow velocity of downstream of weir increases when the number of weir gates increases under the same cross sectional area of flow. Through such results, this study could present basic data for hydraulic research to consider the water flow and sediment transport depending on weir operation in the future work.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.27-38
• /
• 2020

Climate variations have become worse and diversified recently, which caused catastrophic disasters for our communities and ecosystem including economic property damages in Korea. Heat wave of summer season is one of causes for such damages of which outbreak tends to increase recently. Related short-term forecasting information has been provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration based on results from numerical forecasting model. As the study area, the ◯◯ province was selected because of the highest mortality rate in Korea for the past 15 years (1998~2012). When comparing the forecasted temperatures with field measurements, it showed RMSE of 1.57℃ and RMSE of 1.96℃ was calculated when only comparing the data corresponding to the observed value of 33℃ or higher. The forecasting process would take at least about 3~4 hours to provide the 4 hours advanced forecasting information. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for temperature prediction using LSTM considering the short prediction time and the adequate accuracy. As a result of 4 hour temperature prediction using this approach, RMSE of 1.71℃ was occurred. When comparing only the observed value of 33℃ or higher, RMSE of 1.39℃ was obtained. Even the numerical prediction model of the whole range of errors is relatively smaller, but the accuracy of prediction of the machine learning model is higher for above 33℃. In addition, it took an average of 9 minutes and 26 seconds to provide temperature information using this approach. It would be necessary to study for wider spatial range or different province with proper data set in near future.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.52 no.9
• /
• pp.2100-2106
• /
• 2020

This paper newly proposes an efficient analytic springback prediction method to predict the final dimensions of bent cylindrical tubes for a helical tube steam generator in a small modular reactor. Three-dimensional bending procedure is treated as a two-dimensional in-plane bending procedure by integrating the Euler beam theory. To enhance the accuracy of the springback prediction, mathematical representations of flow stress and elastic modulus for unloading are systematically integrated into the analytic prediction model. This technique not only precisely predicts the final dimensions of the bent helical tube after a springback, but also effectively predicts the various target radii. Numerical validations were performed for five different radii of helical tube bending by comparing the final radius after a springback.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
• /
• v.14 no.7
• /
• pp.91-98
• /
• 1997

Because of a complicated behavior of fatigue in mechanical structures, the analysis of fatigue is in need of much researches on life prediction. A method is developed for the dynamic tensile strength analysis by simple tensile test, which is for the failure life prediction by lethargy coefficient of various materials. Then it is programed to analyze the failure life prediction of mechanical system by virtue of fracture. Thus the dynamic tensile strength analysis is performed to evaluate life parameters as a numerical example, using the developed method.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.162-167
• /
• 2017

The tensile surface residual stress in the multi-pass drawn wire deteriorates the mechanical properties of the wire. Therefore, the evaluation of the residual stress is very important. Especially, the axial residual stress on the wire surface is the highest. Therefore, the objective of this study was to propose an axial surface residual stress prediction model of the multi-pass drawn steel wire. In order to achieve this objective, an elastoplastic finite element (FE) analysis was carried out to investigate the effect of semi-die angle and reduction ratio of the axial surface residual stress. By using the results of the FE analysis, a surface residual stress prediction model was proposed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the prediction model, the predicted residual stress was compared to that of a wire drawing experiment.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.44 no.2
• /
• pp.97-107
• /
• 2011

For the purpose of enhancing usability of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction), the quantitative precipitation prediction scheme was suggested. In this research, precipitation by leading time was predicted using 3-hour rainfall accumulation by meso-scale numerical weather model and AWS (Automatic Weather Station), precipitation water and relative humidity observed by atmospheric sounding station, probability of rainfall occurrence by leading time in June and July, 2001 and August, 2002. Considering the nonlinear process of ranfall producing mechanism, the ANN (Artificial Neural Network) that is useful in nonlinear fitting between rainfall and the other atmospheric variables. The feedforward multi-layer perceptron was used for neural network structure, and the nonlinear bipolaractivation function was used for neural network training for converting negative rainfall into no rain value. The ANN simulated rainfall was validated by leading time using Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (COE) and Coefficient of Correlation (CORR). As a result, the 3 hour rainfall accumulation basis shows that the COE of the areal mean of the Korean peninsula was improved from -0.04 to 0.31 for the 12 hr leading time, -0.04 to 0.38 for the 24 hr leading time, -0.03 to 0.33 for the 36 hr leading time, and -0.05 to 0.27 for the 48 hr leading time.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.186-194
• /
• 2001

The operational meso-scale short range NWP system was developed for Cheju Regional Meteorological Office located at Cheju island, Korea. The Central Meteorological Service Center, KMA has reported the information on numerical weather prediction every 12 hours. But this information is not enough to determine the detail forecast for the regional meteorological office because the terrain of the Korean peninsula is very complex and the resolution of the numerical model provided by KMA headquarter is too coarse to resolve the local severe weather system such as heavy rainfall. LAPS and MM5 models were chosen for three-dimentional data assimilation and numerical weather prediction tools respectively. LAPS was designed to provide the initial data to all regional numerical prediction models including MM5. Synoptic observational data from GTS, satellite brightness temperature data from GMS-5 and the composite reflectivity data from 5 radar sites were used in the LAPS data assimilation for producing the initial data. MM5 was performed on PC-cluster based on 16 pentium CPUs which was one of the cheapest distributed parallel computer in these days. We named this system as Halla Short Range Prediction System (HSRPS). HSRPS was verified by heavy rainfall case in July 9, 1999, it showed that HSRPS well resolved local severe weather which was not simulated by 30 km MM5/KMA. Especially, the structure of rainfall amount was very close to the corresponding observation. HSRPS will be operating every 6 hours in the Cheju Regional Meteorological Office from April 2000.

• Journal of ILASS-Korea
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.22-27
• /
• 2008

The false diffusion occurs generally when the flow is oblique to the grid lines and when there is a non-zero gradient of the dependent variable in the direction normal to the flow. This numerical problem can overestimate diffusion terms in the continuous phase, causing the numerical inaccuracy for the simulation of impinging sprays on inclined walls because most of spray calculation uses rectangular grid system. Therefore, the main objective of this article is to investigate numerically the influence of false diffusion on numerical simulation for spray-wall impingement on inclined walls. It is found that unlike the spray impingement normal to the wall, the numerical diffusion exists in the case when diesel sprays impinge on the inclined walls with different angles. The results show that the correction function should be considered for accurate prediction of spray penetration length and more elaborate numerical schemes should be utilized to reduce the false diffusion.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.466-477
• /
• 2015

In this study, a numerical prediction method on manoeuvrability of Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (WTIV) is presented. Planar Motion Mechanism (PMM) captive test for the bare hull of WTIV is carried out in the model basin and compared with the numerical results using RANS simulation based on Open-source Field Operation And Manipulation (OpenFOAM) calculation to validate the developed method. The manoeuvrability of WTIV with skeg and/or without skeg is investigated using the numerical approach along with the captive model test. In the numerical calculations, the dynamic stability index which indicates the course keeping ability is evaluated and compared for three different hull configurations i.e. bare hull and other two hulls with center skeg and twin skeg. This paper proves that the numerical approach using RANS simulation can be readily applied to estimate the manoeuvrability of WTIV at the initial design stage.