• Title/Summary/Keyword: Numerical Prediction

Search Result 2,751, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

A Numerical Study on Temperature Prediction Bias using FDS in Simulated Thermal Environments of Fire (모사된 화재의 열적환경에서 FDS를 이용한 온도 예측오차에 관한 수치해석 연구)

  • Han, Ho-Sik;Kim, Bong-Jun;Hwang, Cheol-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.32 no.2
    • /
    • pp.14-20
    • /
    • 2017
  • A numerical study was conducted to identify the predictive performance for the bare-bead thermocouple (TC) using FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) in simulated thermal environments of fire. A relative prediction bias of TC temperature calculated from reverse-radiation correction by FDS was evaluated with the comparison of previous experimental data. As a result, it was identified that the TC temperatures predicted by FDS were lower than the temperatures measured by bare-bead TC for the ranges of heat flux and gas temperature considered. The relative prediction bias of TC temperature by FDS was gradually increased with the increase in radiative heat flux and also significantly increased with the decrease in the gas temperature. Quantitatively, at the gas temperature of $20^{\circ}C$, the TC temperature predicted by FDS had the relative bias of approximately -20% with the radiative heat flux of $20kW/m^2$ corresponding to thermal radiation level of the flashover. It is predicted from the present study that more accurate validation of fire modeling will be possible with the quantitative prediction bias occurred in the process of reverse-radiation correction of temperature predicted by FDS.

Study on performance prediction of centrifugal compressor with diffuser angle and rotational speed change (원심압축기의 디퓨져 각도조절과 회전수변경에 따른 성능예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Y.H.;Shim, Y.H.;Kim, C.S.;Cho, S.Y.
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
    • /
    • v.16 no.5
    • /
    • pp.55-62
    • /
    • 2012
  • Centrifugal compressors are widely used and each operating condition is different. However, it cannot be manufactured according to the every operating condition. In the this study, performance of compressor was evaluated with various rotational speeds of impeller and various stagger angles of diffuser in order to apply a typical model widely. A centrifugal compressor was designed and manufactured based on the design point. On this machines, an experiment was conducted and the performance was predicted at off-design point. The performance prediction was validated with the experimental result and the numerical result. Although the isentropic efficiency on the prediction was slightly lower than that on the experimental result due to the heat loss in the experiment, the pressure ratio was predicted well and also the predicted results were matched well with the numerical results. When the rotational speed of the impeller and the stagger angle of the diffuser were changed together, the compressor can be worked in the high efficiency region and avoided operating in the stall region.

Development of Simple Prediction Model for V-groove butt welding deformation (V-개선 맞대기 용접변형에 대한 간이 예측 모델 개발)

  • 김상일
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.41 no.2
    • /
    • pp.106-113
    • /
    • 2004
  • The block assembly of ship consists of a certain type of heat processes such as cutting, bending, welding, residual stress relaxation and fairing. The residual deformation due to welding is inevitable at each assembly stage. The geometric inaccuracy caused by the welding deformation tends to preclude the introduction of automation and mechanization and needs the additional man-hours for the adjusting work at the following assembly stage. To overcome this problem, a distortion control method should be applied. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop an accurate prediction method which can explicitly account for the influence of various factors on the welding deformation. Systematic and quantitative theoretical works to clarify the effects of various factors on the welding deformation have rarely been found. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of various factors, such as welding process and gravity on the butt welding deformation have been investigated through a number of numerical analyses. In addition, this paper proposes a simplified analysis method to predict the butt welding deformation in actual plate structure. For this purpose, a simple prediction model for butt welding deformations has been derived based on numerical and experimental results through the regression analysis. Based on these results, the simplified analysis method has been applied to some examples to show its validity.

Development of Flash Volume Prediction Model for Independent Suspension Parts for Large Commercial Vehicles (대형 상용차용 독립 현가부품 플래쉬 부피 예측 모델 개발)

  • J. W. Park
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
    • /
    • v.32 no.6
    • /
    • pp.352-359
    • /
    • 2023
  • Recently, independent suspension systems have been applied not only to passenger cars but also to large commercial vehicles. Therefore, the need for research to domestically produce such independent suspensions for large commercial vehicles is gradually increasing. In this paper, we conducted research on the manufacturing technology of the relay lever, which are integral components of independent suspension systems for large commercial vehicles. Our goal was to reduce the flash volume generated during the forging process. The shape variables of the initial billet were adjusted to find proper forming conditions that could minimize flash volume while performing product forming smoothly. Shape variables were set as input variables and the flash volume was set as an output variable, and simulations were carried out to analytically predict the volume of the flash area for each variable condition. Based on the data obtained through numerical simulations, a regression model and an artificial neural network model were used to develop a prediction model that can easily predict the flash volume for variable conditions. For the corresponding prediction model, a goodness of-fit test was performed to confirm a high level of fit. By comparing and analyzing the two prediction models, the high level of fit of the ANN model was confirmed.

Preliminary Prediction of Tidal Changes due to a Barrier in the Keum River (금강하구둑에 의한 조석변화의 초기추정)

  • 최병호;오윤근
    • Water for future
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.161-168
    • /
    • 1987
  • The prediction of changes in the tidal regime due to the construction of a barrier in the Keum River was performed via one-dimensional numerical model. It is shown that a barrier in Mangwolri will lead to a small increase in the $ tidal range. The validity of this prediction is examined using the hydrodynamic analogy with AC circuit theory. Some of preliminary results are presented and discussed.

  • PDF

Weighted Support Vector Machines for Heteroscedastic Regression

  • Park, Hye-Jung;Hwang, Chang-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.467-474
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this paper we present a weighted support vector machine(SVM) and a weighted least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) for the prediction in the heteroscedastic regression model. By adding weights to standard SVM and LS-SVM the better fitting ability can be achieved when errors are heteroscedastic. In the numerical studies, we illustrate the prediction performance of the proposed procedure by comparing with the procedure which combines standard SVM and LS-SVM and wild bootstrap for the prediction.

  • PDF

Control of Chaos using M-step ahead prediction (M단계 예측방법을 이용한 혼돈현상 제어)

  • 이철목;권영석;이균경
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 1996.10b
    • /
    • pp.85-88
    • /
    • 1996
  • We develop an efficient technique of controlling chaos using M-step ahead prediction with the OGY method. It has smaller transient time than the OGY method, and prevents burst phenomena that occur in noisy environment. This technique is very simple and needs small memory compared with targeting algorithms. Numerical examples show that the proposed algorithm has good performance, especially in noisy environment.

  • PDF

Bayesian Prediction Inference for Censored Pareto Model

  • Ko, Jeong-Hwan;Kim, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.147-154
    • /
    • 1999
  • Using a noninformative prior and an inverted gamma prior, the Bayesian predictive density and the prediction intervals for a future observation or the p - th order statistic of n' future observations from the censord Pareto model have been obtained. In additions, numerical examples are given in order to illustrate the proposed predictive procedure.

  • PDF

REGRESSION WITH CENSORED DATA BY LEAST SQUARES SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE

  • Kim, Dae-Hak;Shim, Joo-Yong;Oh, Kwang-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.33 no.1
    • /
    • pp.25-34
    • /
    • 2004
  • In this paper we propose a prediction method on the regression model with randomly censored observations of the training data set. The least squares support vector machine regression is applied for the regression function prediction by incorporating the weights assessed upon each observation in the optimization problem. Numerical examples are given to show the performance of the proposed prediction method.