• Title/Summary/Keyword: Nuclear material diversion

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APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN SAFEGUARDS

  • Fattah, A.;Nishiwaki, Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1051-1054
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    • 1993
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency's Statute in Article III.A.5 allows it“to establish and administer safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, facilities and information made available by the Agency or at its request or under its supervision or control are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose; and to apply safeguards, at the request of the parties, to any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy”. Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfilment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of afeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material. It is clear that no international safeguards system can physically prevent diversion. The IAEA safeguards system is basically a verification measure designed to provide assurance in those cases in which diversion has not occurred. Verification is accomplished by two basic means: material accountancy and containment and surveillance measures. Nuclear material accountancy is the fundamental IAEA safeguards mechanism, while containment and surveillance serve as important complementary measures. Material accountancy refers to a collection of measurements and other determinations which enable the State and the Agency to maintain a current picture of the location and movement of nuclear material into and out of material balance areas, i. e. areas where all material entering or leaving is measurab e. A containment measure is one that is designed by taking advantage of structural characteristics, such as containers, tanks or pipes, etc. To establish the physical integrity of an area or item by preventing the undetected movement of nuclear material or equipment. Such measures involve the application of tamper-indicating or surveillance devices. Surveillance refers to both human and instrumental observation aimed at indicating the movement of nuclear material. The verification process consists of three over-lapping elements: (a) Provision by the State of information such as - design information describing nuclear installations; - accounting reports listing nuclear material inventories, receipts and shipments; - documents amplifying and clarifying reports, as applicable; - notification of international transfers of nuclear material. (b) Collection by the IAEA of information through inspection activities such as - verification of design information - examination of records and repo ts - measurement of nuclear material - examination of containment and surveillance measures - follow-up activities in case of unusual findings. (c) Evaluation of the information provided by the State and of that collected by inspectors to determine the completeness, accuracy and validity of the information provided by the State and to resolve any anomalies and discrepancies. To design an effective verification system, one must identify possible ways and means by which nuclear material could be diverted from peaceful uses, including means to conceal such diversions. These theoretical ways and means, which have become known as diversion strategies, are used as one of the basic inputs for the development of safeguards procedures, equipment and instrumentation. For analysis of implementation strategy purposes, it is assumed that non-compliance cannot be excluded a priori and that consequently there is a low but non-zero probability that a diversion could be attempted in all safeguards ituations. An important element of diversion strategies is the identification of various possible diversion paths; the amount, type and location of nuclear material involved, the physical route and conversion of the material that may take place, rate of removal and concealment methods, as appropriate. With regard to the physical route and conversion of nuclear material the following main categories may be considered: - unreported removal of nuclear material from an installation or during transit - unreported introduction of nuclear material into an installation - unreported transfer of nuclear material from one material balance area to another - unreported production of nuclear material, e. g. enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium - undeclared uses of the material within the installation. With respect to the amount of nuclear material that might be diverted in a given time (the diversion rate), the continuum between the following two limiting cases is cons dered: - one significant quantity or more in a short time, often known as abrupt diversion; and - one significant quantity or more per year, for example, by accumulation of smaller amounts each time to add up to a significant quantity over a period of one year, often called protracted diversion. Concealment methods may include: - restriction of access of inspectors - falsification of records, reports and other material balance areas - replacement of nuclear material, e. g. use of dummy objects - falsification of measurements or of their evaluation - interference with IAEA installed equipment.As a result of diversion and its concealment or other actions, anomalies will occur. All reasonable diversion routes, scenarios/strategies and concealment methods have to be taken into account in designing safeguards implementation strategies so as to provide sufficient opportunities for the IAEA to observe such anomalies. The safeguards approach for each facility will make a different use of these procedures, equipment and instrumentation according to the various diversion strategies which could be applicable to that facility and according to the detection and inspection goals which are applied. Postulated pathways sets of scenarios comprise those elements of diversion strategies which might be carried out at a facility or across a State's fuel cycle with declared or undeclared activities. All such factors, however, contain a degree of fuzziness that need a human judgment to make the ultimate conclusion that all material is being used for peaceful purposes. Safeguards has been traditionally based on verification of declared material and facilities using material accountancy as a fundamental measure. The strength of material accountancy is based on the fact that it allows to detect any diversion independent of the diversion route taken. Material accountancy detects a diversion after it actually happened and thus is powerless to physically prevent it and can only deter by the risk of early detection any contemplation by State authorities to carry out a diversion. Recently the IAEA has been faced with new challenges. To deal with these, various measures are being reconsidered to strengthen the safeguards system such as enhanced assessment of the completeness of the State's initial declaration of nuclear material and installations under its jurisdiction enhanced monitoring and analysis of open information and analysis of open information that may indicate inconsistencies with the State's safeguards obligations. Precise information vital for such enhanced assessments and analyses is normally not available or, if available, difficult and expensive collection of information would be necessary. Above all, realistic appraisal of truth needs sound human judgment.

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Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing

  • Woo, Seung Min;Chirayath, Sunil S.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.198-206
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    • 2019
  • A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The $Pu-to-^{244}Cm$ ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the $Pu-to-^{244}Cm$ ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel assemblies can affect the accountancy of Pu. A random variable, LOPu, is developed to analyze the probability of detection for Pu diversion of hypothetical scenarios at a pyroprocessing facility considering the uncertainty in $Pu-to-^{244}Cm$ ratio estimation. The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing and the event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% if a large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase the probability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting of more number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is designed. This multiple KMP-measurement for the MBA shows the probability of detection for 8 kg Pu diversion is greater than 96%. Increasing the granule sample number from one to ten also shows the probability of detection is greater than 95% in the most ranges for granule and powder sizes.

A Study on the Nuclear Development of North Korea and South-North Mutual Nuclear Inspection (북한의 핵개발과 남북 상호사찰 방안)

  • Park Seung-Gi
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 1992
  • As North Korea signed 'the Korea Peninsula Non-Nuclearization Joint Declaration' at the end of last year as well as full-scope safeguards agreement with the IAEA in Jan.30 1992, her nuclear activity was incorporated into the international monitoring system and opportunities were arranged to .obstruct her nuclear weapon development and nuclear material diversion, which have been international issues up to recent years. However, achieving goals of the Joint Declaration and safeguards agreement should presuppose North Korea's sincerity toward the abandonment of nuclear weapon development. In this study, first of all, her nuclear policy, current situation of nuclear development and the capability of nuclear development are analyzed. Also, based on the analysis. attempts have been made to find methods of effective performance of the South-North Korea mutual nuclear inspection and the suggested methods are as follows; 1) Analysis of the limits of IAEA inspection and suggestion of its supplementary strategies 2) Securing and training professional inspectors for the South-North mutual inspection 3) Establishment of the verification technology to detect nuclear material diversion.

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Current Issues for the Material Balance Evaluation in NFFP

  • Na, Won-Woo;Park, Wan-Sou;Ahn, Seung-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.1447-1448
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    • 2004
  • As the plants are classified as a bulk facility by the Agency's safeguards criteria, the Material Balance Evaluation is a good tool to timely detect diversion that will be accomplished through the creation of defects as small as bias defects. Through all evaluations made by the Agency, it Is strongly recommended to report SRD based on both weight and enrichment, maintain the reliable MUF declaration and improve the gamma spectrometry measurement procedure. These recommendations have been now applied and are going on.

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Examination of Proliferation Resistance Assessment for Nuclear Fuel Cycles

  • Lee, Yoon-Hee;Lee, Kun-Jai
    • Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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    • 2009.06a
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    • pp.73-73
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    • 2009
  • There are many factors to evaluate nuclear fuel cycle such as safety, public acceptance, economics, etc.. Transparency, proliferation, environment issues, public acceptance and safety are essential to expansion of nuclear industry and proliferation resistance is one of key constraints in the deployment of advanced nuclear energy systems. Proliferation resistance is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems. IAEA defmes proliferation resistance as characteristics of nuclear energy system that impedes the diversion or undeclared production of nuclear material [1]. Barriers to proliferation is consist of intrinsic and extrinsic barriers(institutional measures). Intrinsic barriers are characterized in material barriers and technical barriers in general. Material barriers is intrinsic, or inherent, qualities of materials that reduce the inherent desirability or attractiveness of the material as an explosive. Isotopic, chemical, radiological, mass and bulk, detectability barriers are considered as material barriers attributes [2]. Proliferation resistance is examined for several nuclear fuel cycles based on previous study which is focused on the intrinsic barriers [3-4]. Pyroprocessing and DUPIC are considered as reprocessing technologies in Korea and the PWR direct disposal is considered. Comparative assessments of the proliferation attributes and merits of different fuel cycle systems will be performed and the optimal back-end fuel cycle and strategy will be proposed.

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Ability of non-destructive assay techniques to identify sophisticated material partial defects

  • Lloyd, Cody;Goddard, Braden
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.1252-1258
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    • 2020
  • This study explores the ability of non-destructive assay techniques to detect a partial material defect in which 100 g of plutonium are diverted from the center of a 1000 g can of PuO2 powder. Four safeguards measurements techniques: neutron multiplicity counting, calorimetry, gravimetry, and gamma ray spectroscopy are used in an attempt to detect the defect. Several materials are added to the partial defect PuO2 can to replicate signatures of the diverted material. 252Cf is used to compensate for the doubles neutron counts, 241Am is used to compensate for the decay heat, and aluminum is used to compensate for the weight. Although, the doubles and triples difference before and after diversion are statistically indistinguishable with the AWCC in fast and thermal mode, the difference in the singles counts are statistically detectable in both modes. The relatively short half-life of 252Cf leads to a decrease (three sigma uncertainty) in the doubles neutron counts after 161 days. Combining this with the precise quantity of 241Am needed (10.7 g) to mimic the heat signature and the extreme precision in 252Cf mass needed to defeat neutron multiplicity measurements gives reassurance in the International Atomic Energy Agency's ability to detect partial material defects.

A Technical Assessment of Possibility Sanction for Assistance to DPRK (대북 바이오가스플랜트 지원의 제재 가능성에 대한 기술적 평가)

  • Chung, Yongjin;Kwon, Yongchai
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.192-199
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    • 2015
  • Under the economic banner of "self-reliance," North Korea has focused on hydro and thermal power as its main energy supply sources. However, in the face of extreme energy penury caused by machinery and material supply instability in the wake of the collapse of the former communist block as well as equipment aging and deterioration due to floods and other disasters, North Korea and international aid organizations are increasingly turning their attention toward energy source diversification. In particular, renewable energy is recognized as the best strategic energy source for North Korea and it is a decentralized energy option that is suitable in light of North Korea's power distribution networks and its pursuit of self-reliance. Biogas can contribute to improving the human rights situation of North Koreans in conjunction with an increase in food production. For this reason, renewable energy is the most promising option for an energy source that is likely to secure humanitarian aid from international organizations such as the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP). However, the implementation of such humanitarian aid has been hampered by rising concerns about the diversion of provided energy materials for military purposes and the disguised introduction of dual use items strategic materials as well as UN Security Council resolutions and sanctions of the international community against North Korea's military provocation, including nuclear tests and missile launches. This paper explores the possibility of solving this dilemma and proceeding with the humanitarian aid to North Korea by evaluating the potential for sanction and the risk of diversion of the possible products for biogas-related aid on the basis of the list of UN-sanctioned items.