• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제48권2호
• /
• pp.559-571
• /
• 2016

This paper studies the feasibility of renewable energy as a substitute for nuclear and energy by considering Korean customers' willingness to pay (WTP). For this analysis, we use the contingent valuation method to estimate the WTP of renewable energy, and then estimate its value using ordered logistic regression. To replace nuclear power and fossil energy with renewable energy in Korea, an average household is willing to pay an additional 102,388 Korean Won (KRW) per month (approx. US $85). Therefore, the yearly economic value of renewable energy in Korea is about 19.3 trillion KRW (approx. US $16.1 billion). Considering that power generation with only renewable energy would cost an additional 35 trillion KRW per year, it is economically infeasible for renewable energy to be the sole method of low-carbon energy generation in Korea.

• 신재생에너지
• /
• 제16권4호
• /
• pp.9-22
• /
• 2020

This study analyzed the short- and long-term effects of nuclear and renewable energy generation on CO2 emissions in Korea, Japan, and Germany from 1987 to 2016 by using the unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and ARDL model. The unit root test was performed, and the Johansen cointegration test showed cointegration relationships among variables. In the long run, in Germany, the generation of both nuclear and renewable energy was found to affect CO2 emission reduction, while South Korea's renewable energy generation, including hydropower, increased the emissions. Japan only showed significance in fossil fuels. In the short run, in the three countries, the generation of nuclear and renewable energy, excluding hydropower, affected CO2 emission. However, in Korea and Germany, nuclear and renewable energy generation, respectively, affected CO2 emission reduction. Although the rest are significant, the results showed that they increased CO2 emissions.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제51권6호
• /
• pp.1689-1695
• /
• 2019

This study suggests a simple economic model to analyze electricity grid that consists of different power sources. The substitutability of renewable energy for nuclear power in Korean electricity transmission network is investigated by suggested model. The monthly data from January 2006 to December 2013 reported by Electricity Power Statistics Information System (EPSIS) of Korea Power EXchange (KPX) are used. To estimate the elasticities of substitution among four power sources (i.e. coal, natural gas, nuclear power, and renewable energy), this paper uses the trans-log cost function model on which local concavity restrictions are imposed. The estimated Hicks-Allen and Morishima elasticity of substitution shows that renewable electricity and nuclear power are complementary. The results also evidenced that renewable electricity and fossil fueled thermal power generation are substitutes.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제54권8호
• /
• pp.2883-2897
• /
• 2022

According to the Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan announced in 2017 by the South Korean government, the electricity share of renewable energy will be expanded to 20% of the total electricity generation by 2030. Given the intermittency of electricity generation from renewable energy, realization of such a plan presents challenges to managing South Korea's isolated national electric grid and implies potentially large excess electricity generation in certain situations. The purpose of this study is: 1) to develop a model to accurately simulate the effects of excess electricity generation from renewables which would arise during the transition, and 2) to propose strategies to manage excess electricity generation through effective utilization of domestic electricity generating capabilities. Our results show that in periods of greater PV and wind power, namely the spring and fall seasons, the frequency of excess electricity generation increases, while electricity demand decreases. This being the case, flexible operation of coal and nuclear power plants along with LNG and pumped-storage hydroelectricity can be used to counterbalance the excess electricity generation from renewables. In addition, nuclear energy plays an important role in reducing CO₂ emissions and electricity costs unlike the fossil fuel-based generation sources outlined in the 8th Basic Plan.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
• /
• 제8권1호
• /
• pp.59-68
• /
• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
• /
• 제30권4호
• /
• pp.607-625
• /
• 2021

본 연구는 우리나라 발전 부문의 원자력과 신재생에너지 발전의 온실가스 감축효과를 추정하고, 원자력 발전의 사고위험에 따른 외부비용을 포함한 발전 비용을 고려하여 두 발전원의 온실가스 감축비용의 효율성을 비교하였다. 모형의 추정결과, 원자력 및 신재생에너지 발전 1% 증가는 각각 0.744%와 0.127%의 CO₂ 배출량을 감축시키는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 CO₂ 배출량을 1% 감축시키기 위해서는 원자력 발전은 1.344%, 신재생에너지 발전은 7.874% 증가시켜야 함을 의미한다. 추정된 계수와 원자력 발전의 외부비용 포함 발전비용을 사용하여 1%의 CO₂ 배출량 감축을 위한 총 비용을 도출한 결과, 전체 발전량이 1MWh로 가정할 때 CO₂ 배출량 1%를 감축시키기 위한 원자력 발전비용은 외부비용에 따라 0.72~1.49달러로 계산되었으며, 신재생에너지 발전비용은 6.49달러로 나타났다. 이를 2020년 우리나라 총 화석연료 발전량(352,706GWh)을 기준으로 계산할 경우, 원자력 발전은 2.54억~5.26억 달러, 신재생에너지 발전은 22.89억 달러로 신재생에너지 발전이 원자력 발전보다 4.35~9.01배의 비용이 더 소요되는 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 발전 부문의 온실가스 감축을 위해서는 원자력 발전이 신재생에너지 발전에 비해 높은 비용 효율성을 가지는 것을 알 수 있었다.

• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제39권3호
• /
• pp.183-191
• /
• 2013

We address the power generation mix problem that considers not only nuclear and fossil fuels such as oil, coal and LNG but also renewable energy technologies. Unlike nuclear or other generation technologies, the expansion plan of renewable energy is highly uncertain because of its dependency on the government policy and uncertainty associated with technology improvements. To address this issue, we conduct a delphi survey and forecast the capacity of renewable energy. We further propose a stochastic mixed integer programming model that determines an optimal capacity expansion and the amount of power generation using each generation technology. Using the proposed model, we test eight generation mix scenarios and particularly evaluate how much the expansion of renewable energy contributes to the total costs for power generation in Korea. The evaluation results show that the use of renewable energy incurs additional costs.

• 에너지공학
• /
• 제15권1호
• /
• pp.14-22
• /
• 2006

원자력발전과 신재생에너지발전에 대하여 과학적, 객관적 검토없이 다양한 정책과 주장이 제기되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국가별 에너지정책을 조사 분석하고 총 34개의 가능한 전원구성 시나리오를 도출하였다. 이들 시나리오가 우리나라 전력정책에 도입될 경우를 가정하여 전력단가를 계산하였다. 전력단가 계산방법은 현재 우리나라 전력시장에서 사용하는 한계가격결정 방법을 사용하였고 발전원별로 표준건설비 및 운영비를 적용함으로써 계산을 단순화하였다. 계산결과 송배전 비용과 사업자의 이윤을 제외한 현행 전원 구성에 대한 전력단가는 평균 22.18원/kWh이고 전원구성비에 따라 19.74에서 164.07원/kWh까지 분포하였다. 원자력발전비율이 증가할수록 전력단가는 낮아졌고 신재생에너지 발전비율이 증가할수록 전력단가는 높아졌다. 주목할 만한 것은 신재생에너지 발전비율이 20%를 넘어서게 되면 값싼 기저발전을 활용할 수 없게 되어 전력수요가 적은 시간대에 전력단가가 오히려 상승하였다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
• /
• 제30권2호
• /
• pp.325-345
• /
• 2021

본 논문은 원전 비중 축소와 신재생발전 비율 확대를 핵심 내용으로 하는 에너지 전환 정책의 잠재적 성과를 실증적으로 평가하고 그 파급효과를 분석하고자 한다. 발전산업을 대상으로 에너지원 간 수요가격탄력성을 측정하여 그 대체 여부 및 정도를 조사한 후, 원전과 신재생발전 비중 확대 시 CO₂ 발생량 변화를 추산한다. 원자력과 신재생에너지의 암묵가격을 산출하여 두 에너지원간 전력생산의 잠재적 비용을 비교하고, 원전 혹은 신재생발전을 각각 늘릴 경우 전력공급가격에 미치는 파급효과에 대한 시뮬레이션 분석을 실시한다. 원자력과 신재생에너지는 서로 보완적인 것으로 측정되었다. 원전 확대가 신재생발전을 늘리는 것보다 CO₂ 감축하는 데 효과적인 것으로 나타났다. 2002~2016년 기간에 걸쳐 대부분 연도에서 원전 확대의 전력공급가격 파급효과는 대체로 신재생발전보다 높게 추산되었으며 변동 폭은 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제55권2호
• /
• pp.587-594
• /
• 2023

This study investigates the impacts of nuclear energy consumption on environmental quality from a different perspective by focusing on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, ecological footprint, and load capacity factor. In this context, the South Korea case, which is a leading country producing and consuming nuclear energy, is investigated by considering also economic growth, and the 1997 Asian crisis from 1977 to 2018. To this end, the study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Different from previous literature, this study proposes a load capacity curve (LCC) and tests the LCC and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypotheses simultaneously. The analysis results reveal that (i) the LCC and EKC hypotheses are valid in South Korea; (ii) nuclear energy has an improving effect on the environmental quality; (iii) renewable energy does not have a significant long-term impact on the environment; (iv) the 1997 Asian crisis had an increasing effect on the load capacity factor; (v) South Korea has not yet reached the turning point, identified as $55,411, where per capita income improves environmental quality. Overall, the results show the validity of the LCC and EKC hypotheses and prove the positive contribution of nuclear energy to South Korea's green development strategies.