• Title/Summary/Keyword: Nonlinear Time Series models

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Efficiency of various structural modeling schemes on evaluating seismic performance and fragility of APR1400 containment building

  • Nguyen, Duy-Duan;Thusa, Bidhek;Park, Hyosang;Azad, Md Samdani;Lee, Tae-Hyung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2696-2707
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficiency of various structural modeling schemes for evaluating seismic performances and fragility of the reactor containment building (RCB) structure in the advanced power reactor 1400 (APR1400) nuclear power plant (NPP). Four structural modeling schemes, i.e. lumped-mass stick model (LMSM), solid-based finite element model (Solid FEM), multi-layer shell model (MLSM), and beam-truss model (BTM), are developed to simulate the seismic behaviors of the containment structure. A full three-dimensional finite element model (full 3D FEM) is additionally constructed to verify the previous numerical models. A set of input ground motions with response spectra matching to the US NRC 1.60 design spectrum is generated to perform linear and nonlinear time-history analyses. Floor response spectra (FRS) and floor displacements are obtained at the different elevations of the structure since they are critical outputs for evaluating the seismic vulnerability of RCB and secondary components. The results show that the difference in seismic responses between linear and nonlinear analyses gets larger as an earthquake intensity increases. It is observed that the linear analysis underestimates floor displacements while it overestimates floor accelerations. Moreover, a systematic assessment of the capability and efficiency of each structural model is presented thoroughly. MLSM can be an alternative approach to a full 3D FEM, which is complicated in modeling and extremely time-consuming in dynamic analyses. Specifically, BTM is recommended as the optimal model for evaluating the nonlinear seismic performance of NPP structures. Thereafter, linear and nonlinear BTM are employed in a series of time-history analyses to develop fragility curves of RCB for different damage states. It is shown that the linear analysis underestimates the probability of damage of RCB at a given earthquake intensity when compared to the nonlinear analysis. The nonlinear analysis approach is highly suggested for assessing the vulnerability of NPP structures.

Development of Temporal Disaggregation Model using Neural Networks 1. Application of the Historic Data (신경망모형을 이용한 시간적 분해모형의 개발 1. 실측자료의 적용)

  • Kim, Seong-Won;Kim, Jeong-Heon;Park, Gi-Beom
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1207-1210
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    • 2009
  • The goal of this research is to apply the neural networks models for the disaggregation of the pan evaporation (PE) data, Republic of Korea. The neural networks models consist of generalized regression neural networks model (GRNNM) and multilayer perceptron neural networks model (MLP-NNM), respectively. The disaggregation means that the yearly PE data divides into the monthly PE data. And, for the performances of the neural networks models, they are composed of training and test performances, respectively. The training and test performances consist of the only historic data, respectively. From this research, we evaluate the impact of GRNNM and MLP-NNM for the disaggregation of the nonlinear time series data. We should, furthermore, construct the credible data of the monthly PE data from the disaggregation of the yearly PE data, and can suggest the methodology for the irrigation and drainage networks system.

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Development of Temporal Disaggregation Model using Neural Networks 3. Application of the Mixed Data (신경망모형을 이용한 시간적 분해모형의 개발 3. 혼합자료의 적용)

  • Kim, Seong-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1215-1218
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    • 2009
  • The goal of this research is to apply the neural networks models for the disaggregation of the pan evaporation (PE) data, Republic of Korea. The neural networks models consist of generalized regression neural networks model (GRNNM) and multilayer perceptron neural networks model (MLP-NNM), respectively. The disaggregation means that the yearly PE data divides into the monthly PE data. And, for the performances of the neural networks models, they are composed of training and test performances, respectively. The training data consist of the mixed data The mixed data involves the historic data and the generated data using PARMA (1,1). And, the testing data consist of the only historic data, respectively. From this research, we evaluate the impact of GRNNM and MLP-NNM for the disaggregation of the nonlinear time series data. We should, furthermore, construct the credible data of the monthly PE data from the disaggregation of the yearly PE data, and can suggest the methodology for the irrigation and drainage networks system.

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Development of Temporal Disaggregation Model using Neural Networks 2. Application of the Generated Data (신경망모형을 이용한 시간적 분해모형의 개발 2. 모의자료의 적용)

  • Kim, Seong-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1211-1214
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    • 2009
  • The goal of this research is to apply the neural networks models for the disaggregation of the pan evaporation (PE) data, Republic of Korea. The neural networks models consist of generalized regression neural networks model (GRNNM) and multilayer perceptron neural networks model (MLP-NNM), respectively. The disaggregation means that the yearly PE data divides into the monthly PE data. And, for the performances of the neural networks models, they are composed of training and test performances, respectively. The training data consist of the generated data using PARMA (1,1). And, the testing data consist of the historic data, respectively. From this research, we evaluate the impact of GRNNM and MLP-NNM for the disaggregation of the nonlinear time series data. We should, furthermore, construct the credible data of the monthly PE data from the disaggregation of the yearly PE data, and can suggest the methodology for the irrigation and drainage networks system.

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Time Series Analysis for Predicting Deformation of Earth Retaining Walls (시계열 분석을 이용한 흙막이 벽체 변형 예측)

  • Seo, Seunghwan;Chung, Moonkyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.65-79
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    • 2024
  • This study employs traditional statistical auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and deep learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) models to predict the deformation of earth retaining walls using inclinometer data from excavation sites. It compares the predictive capabilities of both models. The ARIMA model excels in analyzing linear patterns as time progresses, while the LSTM model is adept at handling complex nonlinear patterns and long-term dependencies in the data. This research includes preprocessing of inclinometer measurement data, performance evaluation across various data lengths and input conditions, and demonstrates that the LSTM model provides statistically significant improvements in prediction accuracy over the ARIMA model. The findings suggest that LSTM models can effectively assess the stability of retaining walls at excavation sites. Additionally, this study is expected to contribute to the development of safety monitoring systems at excavation sites and the advancement of time series prediction models.

A Hybrid System of Joint Time-Frequency Filtering Methods and Neural Network Techniques for Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting (환율예측을 위한 신호처리분석 및 인공신경망기법의 통합시스템 구축)

  • 신택수;한인구
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.103-123
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    • 1999
  • Input filtering as a preprocessing method is so much crucial to get good performance in time series forecasting. There are a few preprocessing methods (i.e. ARMA outputs as time domain filters, and Fourier transform or wavelet transform as time-frequency domain filters) for handling time series. Specially, the time-frequency domain filters describe the fractal structure of financial markets better than the time domain filters due to theoretically additional frequency information. Therefore, we, first of all, try to describe and analyze specially some issues on the effectiveness of different filtering methods from viewpoint of the performance of a neural network based forecasting. And then we discuss about neural network model architecture issues, for example, what type of neural network learning architecture is selected for our time series forecasting, and what input size should be applied to a model. In this study an input selection problem is limited to a size selection of the lagged input variables. To solve this problem, we simulate on analyzing and comparing a few neural networks having different model architecture and also use an embedding dimension measure as chaotic time series analysis or nonlinear dynamic analysis to reduce the dimensionality (i.e. the size of time delayed input variables) of the models. Throughout our study, experiments for integration methods of joint time-frequency analysis and neural network techniques are applied to a case study of daily Korean won / U. S dollar exchange returns and finally we suggest an integration framework for future research from our experimental results.

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Prospecting the Market of the Modular Housing Using the Nonlinear Forecasting Models (비선형 예측모형을 활용한 모듈러주택 시장전망)

  • Park, Nam-Cheon;Kim, Kyoon-Tai;Kim, In-Moo;Kim, Seok-Jong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.631-637
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    • 2014
  • Recently, following the application of modular housing techniques to not only residential sector, but also to business sector, the scope of modular housing market b expanding. In the case of other developed countries, such markets are entering into the maturity stage, though the market in Korea is not fully formed yet. Thus, it is difficult to check its trend to estimated mid- to long-term prospects of the market. In this context, the study predicted demand of the modular housing market by using a non-linear prediction model based on time series analysis. To get the prospects for the modular housing market, the quantity of housing supply was estimated based on the estimated quantity of newly built housings, and assumed that a portion of the supplied quantity would be the demand for modular housings. Based on the assumption of demand for modular housings, several scenarios were analyzed and the prospects of the modular housing market was obtained by utilizing the non-linear prediction model.

Development of Visual Servo Control System for the Tracking and Grabbing of Moving Object (이동 물체 포착을 위한 비젼 서보 제어 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, G.J.;Cho, W.S.;Ahn, D.S.
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.96-101
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we address the problem of controlling an end-effector to track and grab a moving target using the visual servoing technique. A visual servo mechanism based on the image-based servoing principle, is proposed by using visual feedback to control an end-effector without calibrated robot and camera models. Firstly, we consider the control problem as a nonlinear least squares optimization and update the joint angles through the Taylor Series Expansion. And to track a moving target in real time, the Jacobian estimation scheme(Dynamic Broyden's Method) is used to estimate the combined robot and image Jacobian. Using this algorithm, we can drive the objective function value to a neighborhood of zero. To show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, simulation results for a six degree of freedom robot are presented.

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Study on the Material Parameter Extraction of the Overlay Model for the Low Cycle Fatigue(LCF) Analysis (저주기 피로해석을 위한 다층모델의 재료상수 추출에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Ho;Kabir, S.M. Humayun;Yeo, Tae-In
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.66-73
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    • 2010
  • This work was focused on the material parameter extraction for the isothermal cyclic deformation analysis for which Chaboche(Combined Nonlinear Isotropic and Kinematic Hardening) and Overlay(Multi Linear Hardening) models are normally used. In this study all the parameters were driven especially based on Overlay theories. A simple method is suggested to find out best material parameters for the cyclic deformation analysis prior to the isothermal LCF(Low Cycle Fatigue) analysis. The parameter extraction was done using 400 series stainless steel data which were published in the reference papers. For simple and quick review of the parameters extracted by suggested method, 1D FORTRAN program was developed, and this program could reduce the time for checking the material data tremendously. For the application to FE code ABAQUS user subroutine for the material models was developed by means of UMAT(User Material Subroutine), and the stabilized hysteresis loops obtained by the numerical analysis were in good harmony with test results.

The forecasting evaluation of the high-order mixed frequency time series model to the marine industry (고차원 혼합주기 시계열모형의 해운경기변동 예측력 검정)

  • KIM, Hyun-sok
    • The Journal of shipping and logistics
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.93-109
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    • 2019
  • This study applied the statistically significant factors to the short-run model in the existing nonlinear long-run equilibrium relation analysis for the forecasting of maritime economy using the mixed cycle model. The most common univariate AR(1) model and out-of-sample forecasting are compared with the root mean squared forecasting error from the mixed-frequency model, and the prediction power of the mixed-frequency approach is confirmed to be better than the AR(1) model. The empirical results from the analysis suggest that the new approach of high-level mixed frequency model is a useful for forecasting marine industry. It is consistent that the inclusion of more information, such as higher frequency, in the analysis of long-run equilibrium framework is likely to improve the forecasting power of short-run models in multivariate time series analysis.