• Information Systems Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.161-177
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• 2014

Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.87-115
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• 2012

Introduction: In these days, a loyalty program is one of the most common marketing mechanisms (Lacey & Sneath, 2006; Nues & Dreze, 2006; Uncles et al., 20003). In recent years, Coalition Loyalty Program is more noticeable as one of progressed forms. In the past, loyalty program was operating independently by single product brand or single retail channel brand. Now, companies using Coalition Loyalty Program share their programs as one single service and companies to participate to this program continue to have benefits from their existing program as well as positive spillover effect from the other participating network companies. Instead of consumers to earn or spend points from single retail channel or brand, consumers will have more opportunities to utilize their points and be able to purchase other participating companies products. Issues that are related to form of loyalty programs are essentially connected with consumers' perceived view on convenience of using its program. This can be a problem for distribution companies' strategic marketing plan. Although Coalition Loyalty Program is popular corporate marketing strategy to most companies, only few researches have been published. However, compared to independent loyalty program, coalition loyalty program operated by third parties of partnership has following conditions: Companies cannot autonomously modify structures of program for individual companies' benefits, and there is no guarantee to operate and to participate its program continuously by signing a contract. Thus, it is important to conduct the study on how coalition loyalty program affects companies' success and its process as much as conducting the study on effects of independent program. This study will complement the lack of coalition loyalty program study. The purpose of this study is to find out how consumer loyalty affects affiliated brands, its cause and mechanism. The past study about loyalty program only provided the variation of performance analysis, but this study will specifically focus on causes of results. In order to do these, this study is designed and to verify three primary objects as following; First, based on opinions of Switching Barriers (Fornell, 1992; Ping, 1993; Jones, et at., 2000) about causes of loyalty of coalition brand, 'brand attractiveness' and 'brand switching cost' are antecedents and causes of change in 'brand loyalty' will be investigated. Second, influence of consumers' perception and attitude prior to joining coalition loyalty program, influence of program in retail brands, brand attractiveness and spillover effect of switching cost after joining coalition program will be verified. Finally, the study will apply 'prior brand preference' as a variable and will provide a relationship between effects of coalition loyalty program and prior preference level. Hypothesis Hypothesis 1. After joining coalition loyalty program, more preferred brand (compared to less preferred brand) will increase influence on brand attractiveness to brand loyalty. Hypothesis 2. After joining coalition loyalty program, less preferred brand (compared to more preferred brand) will increase influence on brand switching cost to brand loyalty. Hypothesis 3. (1)Brand attractiveness and (2)brand switching cost of more preferred brand (before joining the coalition loyalty program) will influence more positive effects from (1)program attractiveness and (2)program switching cost of coalition loyalty program (after joining) than less preferred brand. Hypothesis 4. After joining coalition loyalty program, (1)brand attractiveness and (2)brand switching cost of more preferred brand will receive more positive impacts from (1)program attractiveness and (2)program switching cost of coalition loyalty program than less preferred brand. Hypothesis 5. After joining coalition loyalty program, (1)brand attractiveness and (2)brand switching cost of more preferred brand will receive less impacts from (1)brand attractiveness and (2)brand switching cost of different brands (having different preference level), which joined simultaneously, than less preferred brand. Method : In order to validate hypotheses, this study will apply experimental method throughout virtual scenario of coalition loyalty program if consumers have used or available for the actual brands. The experiment is conducted twice to participants. In a first experiment, the study will provide six coalition brands which are already selected based on prior research. The survey asked each brand attractiveness, switching cost, and loyalty after they choose high preference brand and low preference brand. One hour break was provided prior to the second experiment. In a second experiment, virtual coalition loyalty program "SaveBag" was introduced to participants. Participants were informed that "SaveBag" will be new alliance with six coalition brands from the first experiment. Brand attractiveness and switching cost about coalition program were measured and brand attractiveness and switching cost of high preference brand and low preference brand were measured as same method of first experiment. Limitation and future research This study shows limitations of effects of coalition loyalty program by using virtual scenario instead of actual research. Thus, future study should compare and analyze CLP panel data to provide more in-depth information. In addition, this study only proved the effectiveness of coalition loyalty program. However, there are two types of loyalty program, which are Single and Coalition, and success of coalition loyalty program will be dependent on market brand power and prior customer attitude. Therefore, it will be interesting to compare effects of two programs in the future.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.77-97
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• 2019

The large amount of data that emerges from the initial connection environment of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is a major factor that distinguishes the Fourth Industrial Revolution from the existing production environment. This environment has two-sided features that allow it to produce data while using it. And the data produced so produces another value. Due to the massive scale of data, future information systems need to process more data in terms of quantities than existing information systems. In addition, in terms of quality, only a large amount of data, Ability is required. In a small-scale information system, it is possible for a person to accurately understand the system and obtain the necessary information, but in a variety of complex systems where it is difficult to understand the system accurately, it becomes increasingly difficult to acquire the desired information. In other words, more accurate processing of large amounts of data has become a basic condition for future information systems. This problem related to the efficient performance of the information system can be solved by building a semantic web which enables various information processing by expressing the collected data as an ontology that can be understood by not only people but also computers. For example, as in most other organizations, IT has been introduced in the military, and most of the work has been done through information systems. Currently, most of the work is done through information systems. As existing systems contain increasingly large amounts of data, efforts are needed to make the system easier to use through its data utilization. An ontology-based system has a large data semantic network through connection with other systems, and has a wide range of databases that can be utilized, and has the advantage of searching more precisely and quickly through relationships between predefined concepts. In this paper, we propose a defense ontology as a method for effective data management and decision support. In order to judge the applicability and effectiveness of the actual system, we reconstructed the existing air force munitions situation management system as an ontology based system. It is a system constructed to strengthen management and control of logistics situation of commanders and practitioners by providing real - time information on maintenance and distribution situation as it becomes difficult to use complicated logistics information system with large amount of data. Although it is a method to take pre-specified necessary information from the existing logistics system and display it as a web page, it is also difficult to confirm this system except for a few specified items in advance, and it is also time-consuming to extend the additional function if necessary And it is a system composed of category type without search function. Therefore, it has a disadvantage that it can be easily utilized only when the system is well known as in the existing system. The ontology-based logistics situation management system is designed to provide the intuitive visualization of the complex information of the existing logistics information system through the ontology. In order to construct the logistics situation management system through the ontology, And the useful functions such as performance - based logistics support contract management and component dictionary are further identified and included in the ontology. In order to confirm whether the constructed ontology can be used for decision support, it is necessary to implement a meaningful analysis function such as calculation of the utilization rate of the aircraft, inquiry about performance-based military contract. Especially, in contrast to building ontology database in ontology study in the past, in this study, time series data which change value according to time such as the state of aircraft by date are constructed by ontology, and through the constructed ontology, It is confirmed that it is possible to calculate the utilization rate based on various criteria as well as the computable utilization rate. In addition, the data related to performance-based logistics contracts introduced as a new maintenance method of aircraft and other munitions can be inquired into various contents, and it is easy to calculate performance indexes used in performance-based logistics contract through reasoning and functions. Of course, we propose a new performance index that complements the limitations of the currently applied performance indicators, and calculate it through the ontology, confirming the possibility of using the constructed ontology. Finally, it is possible to calculate the failure rate or reliability of each component, including MTBF data of the selected fault-tolerant item based on the actual part consumption performance. The reliability of the mission and the reliability of the system are calculated. In order to confirm the usability of the constructed ontology-based logistics situation management system, the proposed system through the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), which is a representative model for measuring the acceptability of the technology, is more useful and convenient than the existing system.

• IMMUNE NETWORK
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.87-94
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• 2001

Background: Cytokine-mediated ex vivo expansion has been proposed as a means of increasing the number of cord blood (CB) hematopoietic stem cells for transplantation. As well as stem cell number, stromal cells are necessary for functional maturation of hematopoiesis. The purpose of this study was to analyze the development of stromal cells during ex vivo expansion of CB $CD34^+$ cells. Methods : $CD34^+$ cells were purified from CB by magnetic bead selection. The levels of of interleukin-3, interleukin-$1{\beta}$, interleukin-6, granulocyte macrophagecolony stimulating factor and tumor necrosis factor-${\alpha}$ were measured in culture supernatants on 0, 1, 2, and 3 weeks, using ELISA techniques. CB $CD34^+$ cells were expanded in Iscoves modified Dulbeccos medium in the presence of several cytokines. The expression of E-selectin, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, platelet/endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1, von Willebrand factor, vimentin, and CD14 in newly developed stromal cells was examined by immunocytochemical method. Relevant extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins and proper cytokines were also assayed for the most suitable condition for expansion of stromal cells. Results: Several cytokines were found to have been produced by CB $CD34^+$ cells as well as bone marrow-derived $CD34^+$ cells. During ex vivo expansion of CB $CD34^+$ cells, stromal cells appeared in the culture by day 4 and expanded over the following 7-10 days before being confluent by day 2 1. These cells expressed surface markers characteristic of cells of endothelial lineage. Furthermore, these stroaml cells also expanded effectively when treated with thrombopoietin+flt-3 ligand+stem cell factor+leukemia inhibitory factor or 0.1% poly-L-lysine-coated wells. Conclusion: Stromal cells were developed during ex vivo expansion of CB $CD34^+$ cells and that this development could be enhanced further by treating the stromal cells with cytokines or ECM.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.9-16
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• 2018

Landscape architecture is an indispensable professional service in building sustainable land and urban environments. The landscape architecture industry is closely related to the promotion of the health and welfare of the people, urban revitalization and residential environment improvement as well as job creation. Despite various public interest values of landscape architecture, the growth engine of the landscape architecture industry, which is supposed to improve the quality of landscape services, has stagnated. In 2015, the Landscape Architecture Promotion Act was enacted to provide a landscape architectural promotion facility and complex system to support revitalization through the integration of the landscape architecture industry. The purpose of this study is to suggest an improvement plan to enhance the effectiveness of the landscape architectural promotion facility and complex system. The results of the analysis are as follows: First, workers and experts in landscape architecture recognized the need for policies and projects to promote the landscape architecture industry. Second, the industrial types suitable for the landscape architectural promotion facility were landscape design, landscape maintenance and management, and landscape construction industry. Meanwhile the industrial types suitable for a landscape architectural promotion complex were landscape trees and landscape facilities production and distribution. Third, the expected effect of the designation of the landscape architectural facility was 'the increase of the business opportunity through the expansion of the network'. On the other hand, that of the landscape architectural promotion complex was 'the activation of various information sharing'. Fourth, 'the size of the local government landscape architecture industry and the capacity to cultivate' was the most important among the designation criteria of the landscape architectural promotion facility. As for that of the landscape architectural promotion complex, the 'feasibility of promotion plan' was the most crucial. Fifth, 'tax benefit and deductible exemption' was considered as a necessary support method for the activation of the landscape architectural promotion facility, and 'maintenance and management fee support' was recognized in the case of the landscape architectural promotion complex.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.327-340
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• 2017

This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2016. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of flow, heat and mass transfer, the reduction of pollutant exhaust gas, cooling and heating, the renewable energy system and the flow around buildings. CFD schemes were used more for all research areas. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results of the long-term performance variation of the plate-type enthalpy exchange element made of paper, design optimization of an extruded-type cooling structure for reducing the weight of LED street lights, and hot plate welding of thermoplastic elastomer packing. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, the heat transfer characteristics of a finned-tube heat exchanger in a PCM (phase change material) thermal energy storage system, influence of flow boiling heat transfer on fouling phenomenon in nanofluids, and PCM at the simultaneous charging and discharging condition were studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, one-dimensional flow network model and porous-media model, and R245fa in a plate-shell heat exchanger were studied. (3) Various studies were published in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration/energy system, system control. In the refrigeration cycle category, subjects include mobile cold storage heat exchanger, compressor reliability, indirect refrigeration system with $CO_2$ as secondary fluid, heat pump for fuel-cell vehicle, heat recovery from hybrid drier and heat exchangers with two-port and flat tubes. In the alternative refrigeration/energy system category, subjects include membrane module for dehumidification refrigeration, desiccant-assisted low-temperature drying, regenerative evaporative cooler and ejector-assisted multi-stage evaporation. In the system control category, subjects include multi-refrigeration system control, emergency cooling of data center and variable-speed compressor control. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, fifteenth studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, renewable energies, etc. Proposed designs, performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which could be help for improving the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the analyses of indoor thermal environments controlled by portable cooler, the effects of outdoor wind pressure in airflow at high-rise buildings, window air tightness related to the filling piece shapes, stack effect in core type's office building and the development of a movable drawer-type light shelf with adjustable depth of the reflector. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy consumption analysis in office building, the prediction of exit air temperature of horizontal geothermal heat exchanger, LS-SVM based modeling of hot water supply load for district heating system, the energy saving effect of ERV system using night purge control method and the effect of strengthened insulation level to the building heating and cooling load.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.35-47
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• 2001

Traffic represents one of the largest sources of primary air pollutants in urban area. As a consequence. numerous abatement strategies are being pursued to decrease the ambient concentration of pollutants. A characteristic of most of the these strategies is a requirement for accurate data on both the quantity and spatial distribution of emissions to air in the form of an atmospheric emission inventory database. In the case of traffic pollution, such an inventory must be compiled using activity statistics and emission factors for vehicle types. The majority of inventories are compiled using passive data from either surveys or transportation models and by their very nature tend to be out-of-date by the time they are compiled. The study of current trends are towards integrating urban traffic control systems and assessments of the environmental effects of motor vehicles. In this study, a methodology of motor vehicle emission calculation by using real-time traffic data was studied. A methodology for estimating emissions of CO at a test area in Seoul. Traffic data, which are required on a street-by-street basis, is obtained from induction loops of traffic control system. It was calculated speed-related mass of CO emission from traffic tail pipe of data from traffic system, and parameters are considered, volume, composition, average velocity, link length. And, the result was compared with that of a method of emission calculation by VKT(Vehicle Kilometer Travelled) of vehicles of category.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.39-53
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• 2007

Generally, fractured medium can be described with some key parameters, such as hydraulic conductivities or random field of hydraulic conductivities (continuum model), spatial and statistical distribution of permeable fractures (discrete fracture network model). Investigating the practical applicability of the well-known conceptual models for the description of groundwater flow in fractured media, various types of hydraulic tests were applied to studies on the highly fractured media in Geumsan, Korea. Results from single-hole packer test show that the horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the permeable media are between $7.67{\times}10^{-10}{\sim}3.16{\times}10^{-6}$ m/sec, with $7.70{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec arithmetic mean and $2.16{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec geometric mean. Total number of test interval is 110 at 8 holes. The number of completely impermeable interval is 9, and the low permeable interval - below $1.0{\times}10^{-8}$ m/sec is 14. In other words, most of test intervals are permeable. The vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivities shows apparently the good correlation with the results of flowmeter test. But the results from the cross-hole test show some different features. The results from the cross-hole test are highly related to the connectivity and/or the binary properties of fractured media; permeable and impermeable. From the viewpoint of the connection, the application of the general stochastic approach with a single continuum model may not be appropriate even in the moderately or highly permeable fractured medium. Then, further studies on the investigation method and the analysis procedures should be required for the reasonable and practical design of the conceptual model, with which the binary properties, including permeable/impermeable features, can be described.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.7-29
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• 2012

Smartphone and its applications (i.e. apps) are increasingly penetrating consumer markets. According to a recent report from Korea Communications Commission, nearly 50% of mobile subscribers in South Korea are smartphone users that accounts for over 25 million people. In particular, the importance of smartphone has risen as a geospatially-aware device that provides various location-based services (LBS) equipped with GPS capability. The popular LBS include map and navigation, traffic and transportation updates, shopping and coupon services, and location-sensitive social network services. Overall, the emerging location-based smartphone apps (LBA) offer significant value by providing greater connectivity, personalization, and information and entertainment in a location-specific context. Conversely, the rapid growth of LBA and their benefits have been accompanied by concerns over the collection and dissemination of individual users' personal information through ongoing tracking of their location, identity, preferences, and social behaviors. The majority of LBA users tend to agree and consent to the LBA provider's terms and privacy policy on use of location data to get the immediate services. This tendency further increases the potential risks of unprotected exposure of personal information and serious invasion and breaches of individual privacy. To address the complex issues surrounding LBA particularly from the user's behavioral perspective, this study applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) to explore the factors that influence the adoption of LBA. According to PCM, consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. Consistent with the principal notion of PCM, we investigated how individual users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service and locatability act as benefit-side factors and information privacy risks act as a risk-side factor accompanying LBA adoption. In addition, we consider the moderating role of trust on the service providers in the prohibiting effects of privacy risks on user intention to adopt LBA. Further we include perceived ease of use and usefulness as additional constructs to examine whether the technology acceptance model (TAM) can be applied in the context of LBA adoption. The research model with ten (10) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 98 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a LBA allows the participant to purchase time-and-location sensitive discounted tickets for nearby stores. Structural equations modeling using partial least square validated the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that six (6) out of ten (10) hypotheses were supported. On the subject of the core PCM, H2 (locatability ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) and H3 (privacy risks ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported, while H1 (personalization ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Further, we could not any interaction effects (personalization X privacy risks, H4 & locatability X privacy risks, H5) on the intention to use LBA. In terms of privacy risks and trust, as mentioned above we found the significant negative influence from privacy risks on intention to use (H3), but positive influence from trust, which supported H6 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The moderating effect of trust on the negative relationship between privacy risks and intention to use LBA was tested and confirmed by supporting H7 (privacy risks X trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The two hypotheses regarding to the TAM, including H8 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ perceived usefulness) and H9 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported; however, H10 (perceived effectiveness ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Results of this study offer the following key findings and implications. First the application of PCM was found to be a good analysis framework in the context of LBA adoption. Many of the hypotheses in the model were confirmed and the high value of $R^2$ (i.,e., 51%) indicated a good fit of the model. In particular, locatability and privacy risks are found to be the appropriate PCM-based antecedent variables. Second, the existence of moderating effect of trust on service provider suggests that the same marginal change in the level of privacy risks may differentially influence the intention to use LBA. That is, while the privacy risks increasingly become important social issues and will negatively influence the intention to use LBA, it is critical for LBA providers to build consumer trust and confidence to successfully mitigate this negative impact. Lastly, we could not find sufficient evidence that the intention to use LBA is influenced by perceived usefulness, which has been very well supported in most previous TAM research. This may suggest that more future research should examine the validity of applying TAM and further extend or modify it in the context of LBA or other similar smartphone apps.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.21-53
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• 1989

In the past twenty years, there has been a rapid increase in the volume of traffic in Korea due to the Korean great growth of the Korean economy. Since transformation provides an infrastructure vital to economic growth, it becomes more and more an integral part of the Korea economy. The importance of coastal shipping stands out in particular, not only because of the expansion limit on the road network, but also because of saturation in the capacity of rail transportation. In spite of this increase and its importance, coastal shipping is falling behind partly because it is givenless emphasis than ocean-going shipping and other inland transportation systems and partly because of overcompetition due to excessive ship tonnage. Therefore, estimating and planning optimum ship tonnage is the first take to develop Korean coastal shipping. This paper aims to estimate the optimum coastal ship tonnage by computer simulation and finally to draw up plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand. The estimation of the optimum ship tonnage is peformed by the method of Origin -Destimation and time series analysis. The result are as follows : (1) The optimum ship tonnage in 1987 was 358, 680 DWT, which is 54% of the current ship tonnage (481 ships, 662, 664DWT) that is equal to the optimum ship tonnage in 1998. this overcapacity result is in excessive competition and financial difficulties in Korea coastal shipping. (2) The excessive ship tonnage can be broken down into ship types as follows : oil carrier 250, 926 DWT(350%), cement carrier 9, 977 DWT(119%), iron material/machinery carrier 25, 665 DWT(117%), general cargo carrier 17, 416DWT(112%). (3) the current total ship crew of 5, 079 is more than the verified optimally efficient figure of 3, 808 by 1271. (4) From the viewpoint of management strategy, it is necessary that excessive ship tonnage be reduced and uneconomic outdated vessels be broken up. And its found that the diversion into economically efficient fleets is urgently required in order to meet increasing annual rate in the amounts of cargo(23, 877DWT). (5) The plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand are as follows 1) The establishment of a legislative system for the arrangement of ship tonnage. This would involve; (a) The announcement of an optimum tonnage which guides the licensing of cargo vessels and ship tonnage supply. (b) The establishment of an organization that substantially arrangement tonnage in Korea coastal shipping. 2) The announcement of an optimum ship tonnage both per year and short-term that guides current tonnage supply plans. 3) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protect6ion of coastal shipping's share from other tonnage supply plans. 4) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protection of coastal shipping's share from other transportation systems. 4) Restriction of ocean-going vessels from participating in coastal shipping routes. 5) Business rationalization of coastal shipping company which reduces uneconomic outdated vessels and boosts the national economy. If we are to achieve these ends, the followings are prerequisites; I) Because many non-licensed vessels are actually operating and threatening the safe voyage of the others in Korea coastal routes, it is necessary that those ind of vessels be controlled and punished by the authorities. II) The supply of ship tonnage in Korean coastal routes should be predently monitored because most of the coastal vessels are to small to be diverted into ocean-going routes in case of excessive supply. III) Every ship type which is engaged in coastal shipping should be specialized according to the characteristics of its routes as soon possible.