• Title/Summary/Keyword: Negative Impact

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Mutual Funds Trading and its Impact on Stock Prices (뮤추얼펀드의 자금흐름과 주식거래가 주가에 미치는 효과)

  • Kho, Bong-Chan;Kim, Jin-Woo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.35-62
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the existence of the fund performance persistence and the smart money effect in Korean stock market and tests the flow-induced price pressure (FIPP) hypothesis, that is, fund flows affect individual stock returns and mutual fund performance. This paper also tests whether the FIPP effect can cause the performance persistence using the monthly returns and stock holdings data of 2,702 Korean mutual funds from January 2002 to June 2008. The empirical results indicate that the performance persistence exists significantly for a long time but the smart money effect does not. The hedge portfolio constructed by buying funds with the highest past 12 months performance and selling funds with the lowest past 12 months performance earns 0.11%~1.05% monthly abnormal returns, on average, in 3 years from portfolio formation month, but the hedge portfolio constructed by buying funds with the highest past net fund inflows and selling funds with the lowest past net fund inflows cannot earn positive monthly abnormal returns and the size of negative abnormal returns of the portfolio increase as time goes on. We find the evidence that the FIPP hypothesis is significantly supported. We first estimate the FIPP measure for each individual stock using the trading volume resulting from past fund flows and then construct the hedge portfolio by buying stocks with the highest FIPP measure and selling stocks with the lowest FIPP measure. That portfolio earns significantly positive abnormal return, 1.01% at only portfolio formation month and cannot earn significant abnormal returns after formation month. But, the FIPP effect cannot cause the performance persistence because, within the same FIPP measure group, funds with higher past performance still earn higher monthly abnormal returns than those with lower past performance by 0.08%~0.77%, on average, in 2 years. These results imply that the main cause of the performance persistence in Korean stock market is the difference of fund managers' ability rather than the FIPP effect.

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The Accuracy of the Table Movement During a Whole Body Scan (전신 영상 검사 시행 시 테이블 이동속도의 정확성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ju-Young;Jung, Woo-Young;Jung, Eun-Mi;Dong, Kyung-Rae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.86-91
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The whole body scan in Nuclear Medicine is a widely accepted examination and procedure. Especially, it is mainly used in bone, I-131, MIBI, and HMPAO WBC scans. The diverse uses of the whole body scan range from the HMPAO WBC scan with a speed of 13cm/min, to a whole body bone scan using the Onco. Flash technique with a speed of 30cm/min. The accuracy of table movement has a strong correlation with the image quality, and inaccuracy of speed could negatively affect the image quality. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the table movement while considering the influence of the age of the equipment and the variability in the weight of the patients. Material and Methods: The study was conducted using two of Seoul Asan Medical Center's SIEMENS gamma cameras which are commonly used in our whole body study. The first one is the oldest gamma camera, an ECAM plus (installed in 2000), and the last is brand new one, a SYMBIA T2 (installed in 2008). Three trials were conducted with the tables moving at a different speed each time; 10, 15 and 30 cm/min. The tables' speeds were measured by checking how long it took for the table to move 10cm, and this was repeated every 10cm until the table reached 100 cm. With an average body weight of the patients of about 60~70 kg, the table speed was measured with weights of 0 kg, 66 kg and 110 kg placed on the table, then compared among conditions. Results: The coefficient of variance (CV) of the ECAM plus showed 1.23, 1.42, 2.02 respectively when the table movement speeds were set at 10, 15, and 30 centimeters per minute. Under the same conditions, the SYMBIA T2 showed 1.23, 1.83 and 2.28 respectively. As table movement speed more, the variance of CV as the speed increases. When the patient body weight was set to 0, 66 and 110kg, the CV values of both cameras showed 0.96, 1.45, 2.08 (0 Kg), 1.32, 1.72, 2.27 (66 Kg) and 1.37, 1.73, 2.14 (110 Kg). There was no significant difference (p>0.05) in 95 percent of confidence intervals and measured CV values were acceptable. However, the CV value of the SYMBIA T2 was relatively larger than the ECAM plus. Conclusion: The scan speed of the whole body scan is predetermined based on which examination is being performed. It is possible for the accuracy of the speed to be affected, such as the age of the equipment, the state of the bearings or the weight of a patient. These factors can have a negative impact on the diagnostic consistency and the image quality. Therefore, periodic quality control should be needed on the gamma cameras currently being used, focusing on the table movement speed in order to maintain accuracy and reproducibility.

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A Intelligent Diagnostic Model that base on Case-Based Reasoning according to Korea - International Financial Reporting Standards (K-IFRS에 따른 사례기반추론에 기반한 지능형 기업 진단 모형)

  • Lee, Hyoung-Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2014
  • The adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) is the one of important issues in the recent accounting research because the change from local GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) to IFRS has a substantial effect on accounting information. Over 100 countries including Australia, China, Canada and the European Union member countries adopt IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for financial reporting purposes, and several more including the United States and Japan are considering the adoption of IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). In Korea, 61 firms voluntarily adopted Korean International Financial Reporting Standard (K-IFRS) in 2009 and 2010 and all listed firms mandatorily adopted K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards) in 2011. The adoption of IFRS is expected to increase financial statement comparability, improve corporate transparency, increase the quality of financial reporting, and hence, provide benefits to investors This study investigates whether recognized accounts receivable discounting (AR discounting) under Korean International Financial Reporting Standard (K-IFRS) is more value relevant than disclosed AR discounting under Korean Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (K-GAAP). Because more rigorous standards are applied to the derecognition of AR discounting under K-IFRS(Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), most AR discounting is recognized as a short term debt instead of being disclosed as a contingent liability unless all risks and rewards are transferred. In this research, I try to figure out industrial responses to the changes in accounting rules for the treatment of accounts receivable toward more strict standards in the recognition of sales which occurs with the adoption of Korea International Financial Reporting Standard. This study examines whether accounting information is more value-relevant, especially information on accounts receivable discounting (hereinafter, AR discounting) is value-relevant under K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards). First, note that AR discounting involves the transfer of financial assets. Under Korean Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (K-GAAP), when firms discount AR to banks before the AR maturity, firms conventionally remove AR from the balance-sheet and report losses from AR discounting and disclose and explain the transactions in the footnotes. Under K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), however, most firms keep AR and add a short-term debt as same as discounted AR. This process increases the firms' leverage ratio and raises the concern to the firms about investors' reactions to worsening capital structures. Investors may experience the change in perceived risk of the firm. In the study sample, the average of AR discounting is 75.3 billion won (maximum 3.6 trillion won and minimum 18 million won), which is, on average 7.0% of assets (maximum 38.6% and minimum 0.002%), 26.2% of firms' accounts receivable (maximum 92.5% and minimum 0.003%) and 13.5% of total liabilities (maximum 69.5% and minimum 0.004%). After the adoption of K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), total liabilities increase by 13%p on average (maximum 103%p and minimum 0.004%p) attributable to AR discounting. The leverage ratio (total liabilities/total assets) increases by an average 2.4%p (maximum 16%p and minimum 0.001%p) and debt-to-equity ratio increases by average 14.6%p (maximum 134%p and minimum 0.006%) attributable to the recognition of AR discounting as a short-term debt. The structure of debts and equities of the companies engaging in factoring transactions are likely to be affected in the changes of accounting rule. I suggest that the changes in accounting provisions subsequent to Korea International Financial Reporting Standard adoption caused significant influence on the structure of firm's asset and liabilities. Due to this changes, the treatment of account receivable discounting have become critical. This paper proposes an intelligent diagnostic system for estimating negative impact on stock value with self-organizing maps and case based reasoning. To validate the usefulness of this proposed model, real data was analyzed. In order to get the significance of this proposed model, several models were compared to the research model. I found out that this proposed model provides satisfactory results with compared models.

A Study on the Change of AIDS Knowledge and Sexual Behavior among Middle and High School Students through AIDS Prevention Education (중고등학생의 에이즈 예방교육(豫防敎育)을 통한 에이즈 지식(知識)과 성의식(性意識) 변화(變化)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kwon, Kwan-Woo;Lee, Kyoung-Mu;Kim, Joung-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.109-129
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    • 1999
  • AIDS is worldwide problem. It has threatens societies and is potentially a big problem among youth. UNAIDS has warned that collective global responses are necessary; with half of the newly infected being children and young people in 1998, educating youth below age 24 is essential. Because of both their unexpected, strong sexual activities and an easjer tendency to change their behavior than adults, UNAIDS emphasizes the importance of prevention education for youth. In Korea, 4 cases of HIV infection have officially been reported among high school students. Considering the potential seriousness of HIV infection among youth, the Korean AntiAIDS Federation (KAAF) began an education programme for Korean youth (middle & high school pupils) as one intervention method in 1993. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of the education programs performed and to develop a better programme. The intervention method used in this study was mainly a lecture in a big or small auditorium or through broadcasting systems using audio-visual teaching aids. The period of this survey was from Nov. 10 to Dec. 26. in 1998. The subjects surveyed were 792 pupils who were sampled from 12 different middle and high schools in Seoul by a two-stage cluster sampling. Self-recording the structured questionnaire was used for data collection. Data were analyzed by using a paired t-test to compare the knowledge difference before and after the interrention method. A chi-square test to compare the consciousness difference between pre-post-education results was used, and an ANOVA was ased to compare the knowledge difference among the selected groups. Major results of this study are summarized as follows: (1) AIDS knowledge significantly changed after AIDS prevention education. (2) The direct lecture in a big or small auditorium is more effective than an indirect lecture through a broadcasting system or through audio-visual teaching aids. (3) Those who had not seen obscene materials (e.g. pornography films, magazines etc.) acguired much more knowledge than others after AIDS prevention education. (4) Those who had no girlfriend/or boyfriend acquired much more knowledge than the others after AIDS prevention education. (5) As to the attitudes toward chastity, more girls than boys and students who had not seen obscene materials rather than those who already had were liable to support the state ment: "all should remain chase" and their consciousness on "being chaste" changed much more than that of others after intervention. (6) As to the individual evaluation of lectures, 23.1% shows "very good", 44.1% "good", 26.9% "normar" '-' thus, the positive evaluation was to 94.2%. The negative response was 5.8%. (7) As to the desire for AIDS education sponsored by KAAF in the future, more than 90.5% showed a positive reaction. (8) As to the educators in future education methods, pupils wanted lecturers from outside their schood. (9) Students from vocational high schools have seen obscene materials much more than other groups and the percentage of those who had a girlfriend/or boyfriend was higher than that of the others as wello. (10) 90% of those who watched obscene materials responded that they experienced these materials while at middle school and 100% before reaching the second grade of high school. (11) The number of boys who have experienced obscene materials is twice as many as that of girls. (12) The percentage of boys who have a girlfriend is much higher than the percentage of girls who have a boyfriend. (13) Among those who have friends of the opposite sex, 11.1% say that they hare had sexual contact and 20.8% hare experienced kissing and caressing.

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Leaf Shape Index, Growth, and Phytochemicals in Two Leaf Lettuce Cultivars Grown under Monochromatic Light-emitting Diodes (단색 발광다이오드에서 자란 축면상추 두 품종의 엽형, 생장 및 기능성 물질)

  • Son, Ki-Ho;Park, Jun-Hyung;Kim, Daeil;Oh, Myung-Min
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.664-672
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    • 2012
  • As an artificial light source, light-emitting diode (LED) with a short wavelength range can be used in closed-type plant production systems. Among various wavelength ranges in visible light, individual light spectra induce distinguishing influences on plant growth and development. In this study, we determined the effects of monochromatic LEDs on leaf shape index, growth and the accumulation of phytochemicals in a red leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. 'Sunmang') and a green leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. 'Grand rapid TBR'). Lettuce seedlings grown under normal growing conditions ($20^{\circ}C$, fluorescent lamp + high pressure sodium lamp, $130{\pm}5{\mu}mmol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$, 12 hours photoperiod) for 18 days were transferred into incubators at $20^{\circ}C$ equipped with various monochromatic LEDs (blue LED, 456 nm; green LED, 518 nm; red LED, 654 nm; white LED, 456 nm + 558 nm) under the same light intensity and photoperiod ($130{\pm}7{\mu}mmol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$, 12 hours photoperiod). Leaf length, leaf width, leaf area, fresh and dry weights of shoots and roots, shoot/root ratio, SPAD value, total phenolic concentration, antioxidant capacity, and the expression of a key gene involved in the biosynthesis of phenolic compounds, phenylalanine ammonia-lyase (PAL), were measured at 9 and 23 days after transplanting. The leaf shape indexes of both lettuce cultivars subjected to blue or white LEDs were similar with those of control during whole growth stage. However, red and green LEDs induced significantly higher leaf shape index than the other treatments. The green LED had a negative impact on the lettuce growth. Most of growth characteristics such as fresh and dry weights of shoots and leaf area were the highest in both cultivars subjected to red LED treatment. In case of red leaf lettuce plants, shoot fresh weight under red LED was 3.8 times higher than that under green LED at 23 days after transplanting. In contrast, the accumulation of chlorophyll, phenolics including antioxidants in lettuce plants showed an opposite trend compared with growth. SPAD value, total phenolic concentration, and antioxidant capacity of lettuce grown under blue LED were significantly higher than those under other LED treatments. In addition, PAL gene was remarkably activated by blue LED at 9 days after transplanting. Thus, this study suggested that the light quality using LEDs is a crucial factor for morphology, growth, and phytochemicals of two lettuce cultivars.

The effect of oral care program for the elderly women of the Visiting oral health care (방문구강보건사업 여성노인 대상자의 구강관리프로그램 효과)

  • Lee, Yun-Hui;Lee, Sung-Kook
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.365-377
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    • 2012
  • Objectives : This research was conducted to determine the effect of the Visiting Oral Health Care Program by examining the oral health of the elderly women, who are the beneficiaries of this Visiting Oral Care Program. Methods : This research was conducted from November of 2011 to February of 2012, in Chilgok-gun in the Kyeongbuk Province, South Korea. One hundred and twenty five (125) elderly women among the beneficiaries of the Visiting Oral Care Program within the area were randomly selected for the research. The research subjects would regularly visit the area senior citizen center, and they were divided into two groups, with 64 of them belonging to a control group, and the rest (61 people) belonged to a intervention group. The research subjects were examined for their dental health condition, and we investigated the effect of the Visiting Oral Care Program through this research. Results : 1. When they were asked about how many times they wash their dentures, the majority of the control group, 57.4% of them answered that they do it "once" a day. The majority of the intervention group answered "more than 3 times", with 35.2% of group mentioning that they wash their dentures more than 3 times a day(p<.001). 2. When the research subjects were asked to scale their overall quality of life before and after the Visiting Oral Care Program, the control group had rated 49.3 before the Service and 56.8 after the Service (p<.01), and scores for the individual factors to determine the overall quality of life has significantly improved as well (p<.01, p<.01, p<.01, p<.01, p<.01, p<.01, p<.01). 3. The oral hygiene condition after the Visiting Oral Care Program has shown improvement as well. The control group scored 64.2 for the severity of the symptoms of dental plaque before the dental care, and scored 46.8 after the dental care (p<0.1). The control group was diagnosed for the symptoms of coated tongue, and the severity of the symptoms were scaled as 3.7 before the Program and 2.0 after the Program (p<.01). Furthermore, the overall functionality of the oral cavity was improved as well. The control group showed 1.0 time increase in repetitive voluntary swallowing test (p<0.1), increased amount of sublingual saliva from 0.8mm to 1.4mm, and from 1.6mm to 2.0mm in dorsum linguae(p<0.1). Also, the control group showed an improvement in mouth opening as well, increased from 3.9 to 4.0cm after the oral care program (p<.05). When compared the result with the examination after the Visiting Oral Care Program, the two groups showed a significant difference with the control group showing a significant improvement compared to the intervention group(p<.01, p<.01, p<.01, p<.01, p<.05). 4. The correlation between the dental hygiene condition and the functionality of oral was made for the result of examining the beneficiaries for Visiting Oral Care Program. The amount of saliva showed a negative correlation with the severity of dental plaque (p<.05), and a positive correlation with the repetitive voluntary swallowing count (p<0.1). Also, mouth opening showed a positive correlation with repetitive voluntary swallowing count (p<.05). Conclusions : After the Visiting Orall Care Program, the beneficiaries of the program experienced improvement in their quality of life related to oral health, overall oral hygiene and functionality of oral.

Quality of Life of Patients in Acute Stage of Stroke (급성기 뇌졸중 환자의 삶의 질)

  • Kim, Se-Joo;Kim, Young-Shin;Choi, Nak-Kyung;Lee, Yoon-Young;Lee, Byung-Chul;Lee, Man-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2002
  • Objectives : Stroke is a chronic condition that may carry significant negative impact on the quality of life in patients. Research, treatment and rehabilitation on stoke, however, have focused on physical aspects, neglecting its psychiatric aspects and quality of life. So, aim of this study is to compare quality of life in stroke patients and healthy controls by using WHO Quality of Life(QOL) Scale that evaluates the domains of physical health, psychological health, social relationship and environment. Additionally, relationship between clinical factors in patients with stroke and their quality of life were explored. Methods : 98 patients in acute stage of stroke and 24 healthy controls were recruited in this study and WHO QOL Scales were completed. Total scores and scores of domains of WHO QOL Scale in two groups were compared. Correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were performed to examine the relationship between quality of life and the clinical characteristics in patients with stroke. Results : Total scores and scores of all domains of WHO QOL scale in patients with stroke were decreased compared to those in healthy controls. Clinical characteristics including the depression, anxiety, social support system showed significant correlation with quality of life in general and most of subscales of QOL. And male patients have higher level of quality of life than female patients. But, physical disabilities rated with Barthel's index did not show significant correlation with quality of life. Multiple regression revealed that the severity of depression, anxiety, gender, and level of social support system were factors directly affecting the quality of life in the patients with stroke. Conclusion : Quality of life in patients with stroke was poorer than that of healthy controls. The severity of depression, anxiety, gender, and the level of social support system were related to the quality of life in the patients with stroke.

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Spatial Variation in the Reproductive Effort of Mania Clam Ruditapes philippinarum during Spawning and Effects of the Protozoan Parasite Perkinsus olseni Infection on the Reproductive Effort (여름철 산란기에 있어 바지락 번식량의 공간적 변이와 기생 원생생물 Perkinsus olseni 감염이 바지락 번식에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Hyun-Sil;Hong, Hyun-Ki;Yang, Hyun-Sung;Park, Kyung-Il;Lee, Taek-Kyun;Kim, Young-Ok;Choi, Kwang-Sik
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2015
  • Spatial variation in the reproductive effort of Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum is often closely associated with variation in the seawater temperature and food availability, which determines gonad maturity and the quantity of gamates produced during spawning. Previous studies also have reported that severe infection by the protozoan parasite Perkinsus olseni exerts a negative impact on clam reproduction, retarding gonad maturation or decreasing the reproductive effort. In the present study, we investigated impacts of P. olseni infection on the reproductive condition of Manila clam during a spawning season. Histology revealed that 54% of female clams in Wando off the south coast were in spawning, while only 10% of the female from Gomso and 0% of the female from Seonjaedo in Gyeonggi bay off the west coast were engaged in spawning at the end of May in 2004. Ray's fluid thioglycollate media (RFTM) assay was applied to assess P. olseni infection and indicated that the infection intensity in Wando ($3,608,000{\pm}258,000cells/g$ wet tissue) was significantly higher than the levels in Gomso ($1,305,000{\pm}106,000cells/g$ wet tissue) and Seonjaedo ($1,083,000{\pm}137,000cells/g$ wet tissue, p < 0.001). The size of the ripe female follicle determined from histology was significantly smaller in Wando ($0.032mm^2$) compared to the sizes in Gomso ($0.059mm^2$) and Seonjaedo ($0.052mm^2$, p < 0.05). Accordingly, the number of ripe eggs in the follicle was significantly fewer among clams in Wando (14) compared to the numbers determined in Gomso (23) and Seonjaedo (22). The absolute quantity of egg in ripe clams from Wando (31.01 mg) was also significantly smaller than Seonjaedo (61.79 mg) and Gomso (133.3 mg). Quantity of total protein, carbohydrate, and lipid in the tissue in the Wando samples was significantly smaller than the quantities determined in Gomso and Seonjaedo (p < 0.001). The observed poor reproductive condition and proximate tissue composition of the females in Wando were, in part, explained by the extremely high level of the parasites, sapping the ability to store energy in the host tissues, which is used in tissue growth and the egg production.

The Effect of College students' Perceived Marketing Communication, Value and Consumption Emotion on Store Loyalty in Discount Store (대학생들이 지각하는 종합슈퍼마켓의 마케팅 커뮤니케이션, 가치, 소비감정이 점포충성도에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Hoe-Chang;Ju, Yoon-Hwang
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2012
  • Rapidly growing sales amount and the number of discount stores caused many side effects and sensitive issues in Korea. Because these severe competition due to more expensive cost just like excessive increase in advertising and location selection, and these caused completely ruined small merchants as well as passed on to the consumer. This Study focused on competitiveness of discount store in Korea to the perspective of college students, as explored the relationships between marketing communication and store loyalty. And, examined for two moderating effect, 1) consumers' value separated by hedonic value and utilitarian value between marketing communication and store loyalty, and 2) consumers' value separated by hedonic value and utilitarian value between marketing communication and consumption emotion. Finally, this study examined for mediating effect of consumption emotion between marketing communication and store loyalty. In order to verify the relationship, moderating and mediating effects, data were collected from 130 college students in Whasung, Gyeonggi Province to test theoretical model and its hypotheses. Findings are as followed : First, analysis showed that factors such as advertisement(β =.221, p<.05), publicity(β =.513, p<.01), sales promotion(β =.234, p<.01), word of mouth(β =.627, p<.01) and physical environment(β =.339, p<.01) for marketing communication in the discount store have statistically significant positive effect on store loyalty. But the result of regression analysis for which factors are more impact in marketing communication between store loyalty showed that word of mouth(β =.53, p<.01) is only statistically significant. Second, publicity(β =-.895, p<.05), the sub-dimension of marketing communication shows only statistically significant negative moderating effect on store loyalty. But, the results of the moderating effect of value between marketing communication and consumption emotion verified that utilitarian value show statistically significant, specifically advertisement(β =.294, p<.01), physical environment(β =.418, p<.01), sales promotion(β =.245, p<.01), word of mouth(β =.414, p<.01) and publicity(β =1.137, p<.05), respectively. And hedonic value show statistically significant, specifically advertisement(β =.286, p<.01), physical environment (β =.418, p<.01), sales promotion(β =.236, p<.01) and word of mouth(β =.420, p<.01), respectively. But publicity(β =.145, p=.119) is not statistically significant. Finally, the results verified mediating effect for consumption emotion between all factors for marketing communication and store loyalty showed that factors such as advertisement, publicity, word of mouth and physical environment for marketing communication except sales promotion were statistically significant fully mediated in advertisement, and partially mediated in publicity, word of mouth and physical environment. This testified that the consumption emotion had the most important factor to enhance store loyalty to the perspective of College students. These results can provide important implications and invaluable tips for planning marketing strategies and gaining access to new potential customers. Implications and future research directions are also discussed.

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Analyzing the Effect of Online media on Overseas Travels: A Case study of Asian 5 countries (해외 출국에 영향을 미치는 온라인 미디어 효과 분석: 아시아 5개국을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hea In;Moon, Hyun Sil;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.53-74
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    • 2018
  • Since South Korea has an economic structure that has a characteristic which market-dependent on overseas, the tourism industry is considered as a very important industry for the national economy, such as improving the country's balance of payments or providing income and employment increases. Accordingly, the necessity of more accurate forecasting on the demand in the tourism industry has been raised to promote its industry. In the related research, economic variables such as exchange rate and income have been used as variables influencing tourism demand. As information technology has been widely used, some researchers have also analyzed the effect of media on tourism demand. It has shown that the media has a considerable influence on traveler's decision making, such as choosing an outbound destination. Furthermore, with the recent availability of online information searches to obtain the latest information and two-way communication in social media, it is possible to obtain up-to-date information on travel more quickly than before. The information in online media such as blogs can naturally create the Word-of-Mouth effect by sharing useful information, which is called eWOM. Like all other service industries, the tourism industry is characterized by difficulty in evaluating its values before it is experienced directly. And furthermore, most of the travelers tend to search for more information in advance from various sources to reduce the perceived risk to the destination, so they can also be influenced by online media such as online news. In this study, we suggested that the number of online media posting, which causes the effects of Word-of-Mouth, may have an effect on the number of outbound travelers. We divided online media into public media and private media according to their characteristics and selected online news as public media and blog as private media, one of the most popular social media in tourist information. Based on the previous studies about the eWOM effects on online news and blog, we analyzed a relationship between the volume of eWOM and the outbound tourism demand through the panel model. To this end, we collected data on the number of national outbound travelers from 2007 to 2015 provided by the Korea Tourism Organization. According to statistics, the highest number of outbound tourism demand in Korea are China, Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong and the Philippines, which are selected as a dependent variable in this study. In order to measure the volume of eWOM, we collected online news and blog postings for the same period as the number of outbound travelers in Naver, which is the largest portal site in South Korea. In this study, a panel model was established to analyze the effect of online media on the demand of Korean outbound travelers and to identify that there was a significant difference in the influence of online media by each time and countries. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the impact of the online news and blog eWOM on the number of outbound travelers was significant. We found that the number of online news and blog posting have an influence on the number of outbound travelers, especially the experimental result suggests that both the month that includes the departure date and the three months before the departure were found to have an effect. It is shown that online news and blog are online media that have a significant influence on outbound tourism demand. Next, we found that the increased volume of eWOM in online news has a negative effect on departure, while the increase in a blog has a positive effect. The result with the country-specific models would be the same. This paper shows that online media can be used as a new variable in tourism demand by examining the influence of the eWOM effect of the online media. Also, we found that both social media and news media have an important role in predicting and managing the Korean tourism demand and that the influence of those two media appears different depending on the country.