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검색결과 334건 처리시간 0.019초

재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화 (Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting)

  • 김경재;안현철
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Support vector machines(SVM)은 비교적 최근에 등장한 데이터마이닝 기법이지만, 재무, CRM 등의 경영학 분야에서 많이 연구되고 있다. SVM은 인공신경망과 필적할 만큼의 예측 정확도를 보이는 사례가 많았지만, 암상자로 불리는 인공신경망 모형에 비해 구축된 예측모형의 구조를 이해하기 쉽고, 인공신경망에 비해 과도적합의 가능성이 적어서 적은 수의 데이터에서도 적용 가능하다는 장점을 가지고 있다. 하지만, 일반적인 SVM을 이용하려면, 인공신경망과 마찬가지로 여러 가지 설계요소들을 설계자가 선택하여야 하기 때문에 임의성이 높고, 국부 최적해에 수렴할 가능성도 크다. 또한, 많은 수의 데이터가 존재하는 경우에는 데이터를 분석하고 이용하는데 시간이 소요되고, 종종 잡음이 심한 데이터가 포함된 경우에는 기대하는 수준의 예측성과를 얻지 못할 가능성이 있다. 본 연구에서는 일반적인 SVM의 장점을 그대로 유지하면서, 전술한 두 가지 단점을 보완한 새로운 SVM 모형을 제안한다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 모형은 사례선택기법을 일반적인 SVM에 융합한 것으로 대용량의 데이터에서 예측에 불필요한 데이터를 선별적으로 제거하여 예측의 정확도와 속도를 제고할 수 있는 방법이다. 본 연구에서는 잡음이 많고 예측이 어려운 것으로 알려진 재무 데이터를 활용하여 제안 모형의 유용성을 확인하였다.

Hpall-Mspl Methylation Microarray를 이용한 비소세포폐암의 DNA Methylation Marker 발굴 (Identification of DNA Methylation Markers for NSCLC Using Hpall-Mspl Methylation Microarray)

  • 권미혜;이고은;권선중;최유진;나문준;조현민;김영진;설혜정;조영준;손지웅
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • 제65권6호
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    • pp.495-503
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    • 2008
  • 연구배경: 유전자의 후생적인 변화(epigenetic alteration)는 악성종양의 병인론에 있어서 유전자 변이와 동등한 위치를 점하고 있다. 특히 종양억제 유전자의 전사 촉진(promoter) 부위에 발생하는 비정상적인 메칠화(methylation)는 유전자의 발현을 침묵화(silencing)하고, 결과적으로 유전자의 기능 소실을 일으키게 된다. 저자들은 CpG island와 HpaII site를 가지고 있으며 암화 과정에 관여할 것으로 생각되는 유전자에 대하여 HpaII-MspI methylation microarray를 이용하여 새로운 종양억제 유전자를 발굴하고자 하였다. 방 법: 2005년 건양대학교 병원에서 수술한 비 소세포성 폐암 환자 10명에서 폐암조직과 상응하는 암 주변의 정상조직을 얻었으며, HpaII-MspI methylation microarray (Methyl-Scan DNA chip$^{(R)}$, Genomic tree, Inc, South Korea)를 이용하여 21개의 유전자에 대하여 DNA methylation profile을 분석하였다. 각각의 유전자에서 메칠화된 정도를 두 그룹에서 비교하였고, 정상 대조군으로 두 명의 젊고 건강한 기흉 환자에서 수술한 폐 조직에 대하여 methylation profile을 분석하였다. 결 과: 21개의 대상 유전자 중 10개의 유전자에서 폐암조직, 폐암 주변 정상 조직, 대조군에서 모두 공통적으로 과메칠화 되었고, 나머지 11개의 유전자 중 APC, AR, RAR-b, HTR1B, EPHA3, CFTR의 6개의 유전자에서 대조군에서 메칠화가 없으며, 폐암조직에서 폐암 주변 정상 조직에 비하여 더 빈번하게 과메칠화 되었다. 결 론: HTR1B, EPHA3, CFTR은 비소세포 폐암에서 후생적 변화로 발생하는 새로운 종양억제 유전자의 후보 유전자로서의 가능성이 있을 것으로 생각한다.

Melanogenesis regulatory constituents from Premna serratifolia wood collected in Myanmar

  • WOO, SO-YEUN
    • 한국자원식물학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국자원식물학회 2019년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.21-22
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    • 2019
  • Melanin is a mixture of pigmented biopolymers synthesized by epidermal melanocytes that determine the skin, eye, and hair colors. Melanocytes produce two different kinds of melanin, eumelanin (dark brown/black insoluble pigments found in dark skin and dark hair and pheomelanin (lighter red/yellow). The biological role of melanin is to prevent skin damage by ultraviolet (UV) radiation. However, the overproduction or deficiency of melanin synthesis could lead to serious dermatological problems, which include melasma, melanoderma, lentigo, and vitiligo. Therefore, regulating melanin production is important to prevent the pigmentation disorders. Myanmar has a rich in natural resources. However, the chemical constituents of these natural resources in Myanmar have not been fully investigated. In the effort to search for compounds with anti-melanin deposition activity from Myanmar natural resources, five plants were collected in Myanmar. Extracts of these collected five plants were tested for anti-melanin deposition activity against a mouse melanoma cell line (B16-F10) induced with ${\alpha}$-melanocyte-stimulating hormone (${\alpha}$-MSH) and 3-isobutyl-1-methylxanthine (IBMX), and their anti-melanin deposition activities were compared with the positive control, arbutin. Among the tested extracts, the CHCl3 extracts of the Premna serratifolia (syn: P. integrifolia) wood showed anti-melanin deposition activities with IC50 values of $81.3{\mu}g/mL$. Hence, this study aims to identify secondary metabolites with anti-melanin deposition activity from P. serratifolia wood of Myanmar. P. serratifolia belongs to the Verbenaceae family and is widely distributed in near western sea coast from South Asia to South East Asia, which include India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Sri Lanka. People in Tanintharyi region located in the southern part of Myanmar utilize the P. serratifolia, Sperethusa crenulata, Naringi crenulata, and Limonia acidissima as Thanaka, traditional cosmetics in Myanmar. Thanaka is applied in the form of paste onto skins to make it smooth and clear, as well as to prevent wrinkles, skin aging, excessive facial oil, pimples, blackheads, and whiteheads. However, the chemical constituents responsible for their cosmetic properties are yet to be identified. Moreover, the chemical constituents of P. serratifolia was almost uncharacterized. Investigation of the P. serratifolia chemical constituents is thus an attractive endeavor to discover new anti-melanin deposition active compounds. The investigation of the chemical constituents of the active CHCl3 extract of P. serratifolia led to isolation of four new lignoids, premnan A (1), premnan B (2), taungtangyiol C (3), and 7,9-dihydroxydolichanthin B (4), together with premnan C (5) (assumed to be an artifact), one natural newlignoid,(3R,4S)-4-(1,3-benzodioxol-5-ylcarbonyl)-3-[(R)-1-(1,3-benzo dioxol-5-yl)-1-hydroxy methyl]tetrahydro-2-furanone (6), and five known compounds (7-11)1,2). The structures of all isolated compounds were determined on the basis of their spectroscopic data and by comparison with the reported literatures. The absolute configurations of 1-3 and 5 were also determined by optical rotation and circular dichroism (CD) data analyses1). The anti-melanin deposition activities of all the isolated compounds were evaluated against B16-F10 cell line. 7,9-Dihydroxydolichanthin B (4) and ($2{\alpha},3{\alpha}$)-olean-12-en-28-oic acid (11) showed strong anti-melanin deposition activities with IC50 values of 18.4 and $11.2{\mu}M$, respectively, without cytotoxicity2). On the other hand, compounds 1-3, 5, and 7 showed melanogenesis enhancing activities1). To better understand their anti-melanin deposition mechanism, the effects of 4 and 11 on tyrosinase activities were investigated. The assay indicated that compounds 4 and 11 did not inhibit tyrosinase. Furthermore, we also examined the mRNA expression of microphthalmia-associated transcription factor (MITF), tyrosinase (TYR), tyrosinase-related protein-1 (TRP-1), and tyrosinase-related protein-2 (TRP-2). Compounds 4 and 11 down-regulated the expression of Tyr and Mitf mRNAs, respectively. Although the P. serratifolia wood has been used as traditional cosmetics in Myanmar for centuries, there are no scientific evidences to support its effectiveness as cosmetics. Investigation of the anti-melanin deposition activity of the chemical constituents of P. serratifolia thus provided insight into the effectiveness of the P. serratifolia wood as a cosmetic agent.

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항공기(航空機) 사고조사제도(事故調査制度)에 관한 연구(硏究) (A Study on the System of Aircraft Investigation)

  • 김두환
    • 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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    • 제9권
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    • pp.85-143
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    • 1997
  • The main purpose of the investigation of an accident caused by aircraft is to be prevented the sudden and casual accidents caused by wilful misconduct and fault from pilots, air traffic controllers, hijack, trouble of engine and machinery of aircraft, turbulence during the bad weather, collision between birds and aircraft, near miss flight by aircrafts etc. It is not the purpose of this activity to apportion blame or liability for offender of aircraft accidents. Accidents to aircraft, especially those involving the general public and their property, are a matter of great concern to the aviation community. The system of international regulation exists to improve safety and minimize, as far as possible, the risk of accidents but when they do occur there is a web of systems and procedures to investigate and respond to them. I would like to trace the general line of regulation from an international source in the Chicago Convention of 1944. Article 26 of the Convention lays down the basic principle for the investigation of the aircraft accident. Where there has been an accident to an aircraft of a contracting state which occurs in the territory of another contracting state and which involves death or serious injury or indicates serious technical defect in the aircraft or air navigation facilities, the state in which the accident occurs must institute an inquiry into the circumstances of the accident. That inquiry will be in accordance, in so far as its law permits, with the procedure which may be recommended from time to time by the International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO). There are very general provisions but they state two essential principles: first, in certain circumstances there must be an investigation, and second, who is to be responsible for undertaking that investigation. The latter is an important point to establish otherwise there could be at least two states claiming jurisdiction on the inquiry. The Chicago Convention also provides that the state where the aircraft is registered is to be given the opportunity to appoint observers to be present at the inquiry and the state holding the inquiry must communicate the report and findings in the matter to that other state. It is worth noting that the Chicago Convention (Article 25) also makes provision for assisting aircraft in distress. Each contracting state undertakes to provide such measures of assistance to aircraft in distress in its territory as it may find practicable and to permit (subject to control by its own authorities) the owner of the aircraft or authorities of the state in which the aircraft is registered, to provide such measures of assistance as may be necessitated by circumstances. Significantly, the undertaking can only be given by contracting state but the duty to provide assistance is not limited to aircraft registered in another contracting state, but presumably any aircraft in distress in the territory of the contracting state. Finally, the Convention envisages further regulations (normally to be produced under the auspices of ICAO). In this case the Convention provides that each contracting state, when undertaking a search for missing aircraft, will collaborate in co-ordinated measures which may be recommended from time to time pursuant to the Convention. Since 1944 further international regulations relating to safety and investigation of accidents have been made, both pursuant to Chicago Convention and, in particular, through the vehicle of the ICAO which has, for example, set up an accident and reporting system. By requiring the reporting of certain accidents and incidents it is building up an information service for the benefit of member states. However, Chicago Convention provides that each contracting state undertakes collaborate in securing the highest practicable degree of uniformity in regulations, standards, procedures and organization in relation to aircraft, personnel, airways and auxiliary services in all matters in which such uniformity will facilitate and improve air navigation. To this end, ICAO is to adopt and amend from time to time, as may be necessary, international standards and recommended practices and procedures dealing with, among other things, aircraft in distress and investigation of accidents. Standards and Recommended Practices for Aircraft Accident Injuries were first adopted by the ICAO Council on 11 April 1951 pursuant to Article 37 of the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation and were designated as Annex 13 to the Convention. The Standards Recommended Practices were based on Recommendations of the Accident Investigation Division at its first Session in February 1946 which were further developed at the Second Session of the Division in February 1947. The 2nd Edition (1966), 3rd Edition, (1973), 4th Edition (1976), 5th Edition (1979), 6th Edition (1981), 7th Edition (1988), 8th Edition (1992) of the Annex 13 (Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation) of the Chicago Convention was amended eight times by the ICAO Council since 1966. Annex 13 sets out in detail the international standards and recommended practices to be adopted by contracting states in dealing with a serious accident to an aircraft of a contracting state occurring in the territory of another contracting state, known as the state of occurrence. It provides, principally, that the state in which the aircraft is registered is to be given the opportunity to appoint an accredited representative to be present at the inquiry conducted by the state in which the serious aircraft accident occurs. Article 26 of the Chicago Convention does not indicate what the accredited representative is to do but Annex 13 amplifies his rights and duties. In particular, the accredited representative participates in the inquiry by visiting the scene of the accident, examining the wreckage, questioning witnesses, having full access to all relevant evidence, receiving copies of all pertinent documents and making submissions in respect of the various elements of the inquiry. The main shortcomings of the present system for aircraft accident investigation are that some contracting sates are not applying Annex 13 within its express terms, although they are contracting states. Further, and much more important in practice, there are many countries which apply the letter of Annex 13 in such a way as to sterilise its spirit. This appears to be due to a number of causes often found in combination. Firstly, the requirements of the local law and of the local procedures are interpreted and applied so as preclude a more efficient investigation under Annex 13 in favour of a legalistic and sterile interpretation of its terms. Sometimes this results from a distrust of the motives of persons and bodies wishing to participate or from commercial or related to matters of liability and bodies. These may be political, commercial or related to matters of liability and insurance. Secondly, there is said to be a conscious desire to conduct the investigation in some contracting states in such a way as to absolve from any possibility of blame the authorities or nationals, whether manufacturers, operators or air traffic controllers, of the country in which the inquiry is held. The EEC has also had an input into accidents and investigations. In particular, a directive was issued in December 1980 encouraging the uniformity of standards within the EEC by means of joint co-operation of accident investigation. The sharing of and assisting with technical facilities and information was considered an important means of achieving these goals. It has since been proposed that a European accident investigation committee should be set up by the EEC (Council Directive 80/1266 of 1 December 1980). After I would like to introduce the summary of the legislation examples and system for aircraft accidents investigation of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, Swiss, New Zealand and Japan, and I am going to mention the present system, regulations and aviation act for the aircraft accident investigation in Korea. Furthermore I would like to point out the shortcomings of the present system and regulations and aviation act for the aircraft accident investigation and then I will suggest my personal opinion on the new and dramatic innovation on the system for aircraft accident investigation in Korea. I propose that it is necessary and desirable for us to make a new legislation or to revise the existing aviation act in order to establish the standing and independent Committee of Aircraft Accident Investigation under the Korean Government.

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