• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.360-373
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• 2017

The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.85-100
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• 2008

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) funded collaborative project on The Economic Feasibility Analysis of Crop Cultivation Practice Project in Pirganj and Kurigram Districts in Bangladesh will started during 2008-2012, for 4 years with total project cost of US$ 571,270. The project will be implemented in 6 villages; has 1,097 hectares areas which is divided into 948 hectares of agricultural land, 52 hectares of forest land and 345 hectares of other land, covered 1,059 households equal to 5,305 persons in Pirganj and Kurigram districts The project has proposed to be implemented in joint collaboration by Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) and Rangpur Dinajpur Rural Service (RDRS) Bangladesh with full participation of the farmers' groups of respective project site. The specific objectives of the project are: (1) to estimate the productivity of paddy, wheat, maize, tobacco and sugarcane (2) to determine the cost of production and returns to the above mentioned crops (3) to study the interrelationship between inputs and output of the above mentioned crops and (4) to examine the resource utilization patterns at farm level. In this project analysis, the net incremental profit is US$33,028. The expected incremental project benefit and incremented production cost are estimated as US$ 219,959 and US$ 186,931 respectively. The financial decision making criteria would be followed in this crop cultivation practice project. After the project implementation, the expected project benefits are assumed to be continued for 15 years. The benefit cost ratio (B/C) of the project is estimated at 1.077 (table 11) when using discount rate of 10% as an opportunity cost of capital in Bangladesh. FIRR of project is estimated at 26.15% which is bigger than the opportunity cost by more than double. So this project is financially feasible and acceptable. Therefore, this project should be extended to other areas to increase the farm income and economic growth of marginal poor farmers in Bangladesh.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.1634-1647
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• 2007

"To invest or not to invest?" Most business leaders are frequently faced with this question on new and ongoing projects. The challenge lies in deciding what projects to choose, expand, contract, defer, or abandon. The project valuation tools used in this process are vital to making the right decisions. Traditional tools such as discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) assume a "fixed" path ahead, but real world projects face uncertainties, forcing us to change the path often. Comparing to other traditional valuation methods, the real options approach captures the flexibility inherent to investment decisions. The use of real options has gained wide acceptance among practitioners in a number of several industries during the last few decades. Even though the options are present in all types of business decisions, it is still not considered as a proper method of valuation in some industries. Mining has been comparably slow to adopt new valuation techniques over the years. The reason fur this is not entirely clear. One possible reason is the level and types of risks in mining. Not only are these risks high, but they are also more numerous and involve natural risks compared with other industries. That is why the purpose of this study is to deal with a more practical approach to project valuation, known as real options analysis in mining industry. This paper provides a case study approach to the copper mining industry using a real options analysis. It shows how companies can minimize investment risks, exercise flexibility in decision making and maximize returns.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.19-28
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• 2016

PURPOSES : Long-life asphalt pavements are used widely in developed countries. In order to be able to devise an effective maintenance strategy for such pavements, in this study, we evaluated the performance of the long-life asphalt pavements constructed along the national highways in South Korea. Further, an economic evaluation of the long-life asphalt pavements was performed based on a life-cycle cost analysis. We aimed to devise a model for evaluating the performance of long-life asphalt pavements using the national highway pavement management system (PMS) database as well as for analyzing the economic feasibility of such pavements, in order to promote their use in South Korea. METHODS : The maintenance history and pavement performance data were obtained from the national highway PMS database. The pavement performances for a total of 292 sections of 10 lanes (5 northbound lanes and 5 eastbound lanes) of national highways were used in this study. Models to predict the performances of hot mix asphalt (HMA) and long-life asphalt pavements under two distinct traffic conditions were developed using a simple regression method. Further, the economic feasibility of long-life asphalt pavements was evaluated using the Korea Pavement Management System (KoPMS). RESULTS : We developed service-life prediction models based on the traffic volume and the equivalent of single-axle load and found that long-life asphalt pavements have service lives 50% longer than those of HMA pavements. Further, the results of the economic analysis showed that long-life asphalt pavements are superior in terms of various economic indexes, including user cost, delay cost, total cost, and user benefits, even though their maintenance cost is higher than that of HMA pavements. A comparison of the economic feasibilities of the various groups showed that group A is superior to HMA pavements in all aspects except in terms of the maintenance criterion (crack 20% or higher) as per the NPV index. However, the long-life asphalt pavements in group B were superior in terms of the maintenance criterion (crack 25% or higher) regardless of the economic feasibility. CONCLUSIONS : The service life of long-life asphalt pavements was found to be approximately 50% longer than that of HMA pavements, regardless of the traffic volume characteristics. The economic feasibility of long-life asphalt pavements was evaluated based on the KoPMS. The results of the economic analysis were the following: long-life asphalt pavements are exceptional in terms of almost all factors, such as user cost, delay cost, total cost, and user benefit; however, the exception is the maintenance cost. Further, the economic feasibility of the long-life asphalt pavements in group B was found to be better than that of the HMA pavements (crack 25% or higher).

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.25-36
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• 2013

This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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• v.2 no.2 s.4
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• pp.59-74
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• 2000

Because efficiency of the 1st-phase NGIS investment(1995-2000) has not been clearly measured, the action taken in the 2nd-phase NGIS project requires NGIS budgets to be evaluated in terms of effectiveness. Especially, the effective investments in local governments are critical for the NGIS projects, because they execute the much larger amount of budgets in total than other GIS projects. As indicated, for the successful NGIS implementation, it is important to obtain continuous political and financial supports from decision makers. As a persuasion measure for the budget appropriation, CBA(Cost-Benefit Analysis) and CEA(Cost-Efficiency Analysis) can play an important role for the decision makers. The major concern of this paper is how to measure the costs and benefits of the GIS implementation by considering important characteristics of the GIS projects in local governments, and existing theories are reviewed for this concern. The GISs in local governments can have different stages in terms of its evolution and the effectiveness of the applications can be represented variously. To identify categories for measuring costs and benefits of the various GISs, case studies and success stories are reviewed from both the foreign and domestic research. The categories of costs and benefits are determined from the tangible and intangible aspects. The categories for the quantitative and qualitative measure are proposed to evaluate the GISs in local governments. After measuring costs and benefits, three key evaluation methods in cost-benefit analysis are suggested as follows: 1) the benefit: cost ratio (B/C), 2) Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and 3) the net present values (NPV) of the costs and benefits. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are also helpful to make a decision for the GIS budget appropriation in local governments. In conclusion, although cost-benefit analysis is not an easy undertaking, it is certain that it can play an important role in the future for the GIS funding decisions in local governments.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.31 no.11B
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• pp.997-1004
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• 2006

There is a growing demand to access the broadband internet while on the very fast move. In order to meet these users needs, much research has been made for providing the broadband internet and HDTV services via satellite broadband internet systems even at top train speeds above 200km/h. In this paper, economic analyses on the satellite broadband internet services for KTX are to be reviewed. Broadband internet to trains in Europe are investigated, and Boeing cases for planes are also examined. In the first step, system configuration which is composed of a hub, terminals, satellite, and gap fillers for the tunnel areas has been proposed. A terminal includes a ultra-fast high gain antenna installed on the roof of the train, and APs inside the coaches. Secondly, cost estimation on the capital expenditures as well as operating expenditures has been performed in the proposed configuration. From the european and Boeing cases, demand and tariff are postulated, consequently, service revenues are derived on the scenario basis. Thirdly, estimated costs and derived revenues make up net present value and internal rate of return in each scenario. Finally, conclusions and contribution of this study are presented.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.505-509
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• 2012

Background: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) are proteolytic enzymes that are essentially involved in turnover of the extracellular matrix (ECM). The aim was to investigate the diagnostic value of MMP-7 and MMP-10 as tumor markers in pleural effusion (PE) and evaluate the value of combining MMP-7, MMP-10 and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) assays as diagnostic aids for malignant cells. Materials and Methods: A total of 179 patients with PE (87 malignant and 92 benign) were included in this study. The levels of MMP-7 and MMP-10 were measured using ELISA. Results: Values for MMP-7 and MMP-10 were significantly higher in malignant PE than those in benign PE (P<0.01). Among all variables evaluated, logistic regression found that MMP-7 and MMP-10 were significantly correlated with the presence of malignant disease (P<0.01). Analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves showed that the area under the curve of MMP-10 (0.806) was significantly larger than that of MMP-7 (0.771) and CEA (0.789) (P<0.01). With parallel interpretation, the combination of MMP-10 and CEA achieved the higher sensitivity of 94.6%. The combination of MMP-7 and CEA in serial interpretation was able to boost the specificity to 95.7%. The combination of MMP-7, MMP-10 and CEA produced better sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV than MMP-7 and MMP-10 alone. Conclusion: MMP-7 and MMP-10 in PE may represent helpful adjuncts to conventional diagnostic tools in ruling out malignancy as a probable diagnosis, thus guiding the selection of patients who might benefit from further invasive procedures.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.116-124
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• 2014

Purpose: To investigate the frequency and clinical significance of detected incidental lung nodules found on computed tomography (CT) simulation images for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) and a physician review. Materials and Methods: Sixty-seven treatment-$na{\ddot{i}}ve$ HCC patients treated with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization and radiotherapy (RT) were included for the study. Portal phase of simulation CT images was used for CAD analysis and a physician review for lung nodule detection. For automated nodule detection, a commercially available CAD system was used. To assess the performance of lung nodule detection for lung metastasis, the sensitivity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated. Results: Forty-six patients had incidental nodules detected by CAD with a total of 109 nodules. Only 20 (18.3%) nodules were considered to be significant nodules by a physician review. The number of significant nodules detected by both of CAD or a physician review was 24 in 9 patients. Lung metastases developed in 11 of 46 patients who had any type of nodule. The sensitivities were 58.3% and 100% based on patient number and on the number of nodules, respectively. The NPVs were 91.4% and 100%, respectively. And the PPVs were 77.8% and 91.7%, respectively. Conclusion: Incidental detection of metastatic nodules was not an uncommon event. From our study, CAD could be applied to CT simulation images allowing for an increase in detection of metastatic nodules.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.13
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• pp.5305-5310
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• 2015

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between preoperative leukocyte and platelet counts and the stage of the disease in patients with endometrial cancer. Materials and Methods: Data for 100 patients undergoing total abdominal hysterectomy and bilateral salpingoophorectomy for benign uterine diseases and 177 patients surgically staged for endometrial cancer at Ondokuz Mayis University, Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics between 2005 and 2013, with preoperative complete blood count in the week prior to surgery including WBC, platelet count, pathologic evaluation for both benign and malign endometrium lesions, tumor stage and presence of lymphovascular space invasion (LVI), were retrospectively analyzed. Results: The preoperative leukocyte count was significantly higher in patients with endometrial cancer when compared to the patients with benign diseases. However, there were no significant differences in platelet counts between the groups. Patients with advanced stage endometrial cancer had higher preoperative leukocyte counts when compared to the early stage disease whereas there was no difference in platelet count. Multivariate regression analysis identified preoperative leukocytosis as an independent prognostic factor for endometrial cancer. The optimal cut-off point for WBC was calculated as 10,500 to differentiate stage 1-2-3 and 4 with 88.9% sensitivity and 86.3% specificity (AUC: 0.901, 95% CI: 0.829-0.973, p<0.001, PPV: 25.8%, NPV: 99.3%). Conclusions: Preoperative leukocytosis is independently associated with advanced endometrial cancer.